Headley Abdul Rehman Charged with Mumbai 26/11 conspiracy

Here is the full text of FBI press release on additional charges filed against David Headley in connection with the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

New federal charges filed today allege that a Chicago man, who was arrested in October for planning terrorist attacks against a Danish newspaper and two of its employees, also conducted extensive surveillance of targets in Mumbai for more than two years preceding the November 2008 terrorist attack on India’s largest city that killed approximately 170 people, including six Americans, and injured hundreds more.

The defendant, David Coleman Headley, a U.S. citizen, earlier this decade allegedly attended terrorism training camps in Pakistan maintained by Lashkar e Tayyiba (Lashkar), and conspired with its members and others in planning and executing the attacks in both Denmark and India, federal law enforcement officials announced today.

Also today, a criminal complaint was unsealed in federal court in Chicago charging Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed (Abdur Rehman), a retired major in the Pakistani military, with conspiracy in planning to attack the Danish newspaper and its employees. Another Chicago man, Tahawwur Hussain Rana, a Canadian citizen and native of Pakistan, was arrested in October on federal charges filed in Chicago relating to the Danish terrorism plot.

Through his attorneys, Headley has authorized the Justice Department to disclose that he is cooperating in the ongoing investigation of both the Danish and Indian terror plots. He has remained in federal custody without bond since he was arrested in Chicago on Oct. 3, 2009.

No date has been set yet for his arraignment in U.S. District Court in Chicago.

Headley, 49, was charged in a 12-count criminal information with six counts of conspiracy to bomb public places in India, to murder and maim persons in India and Denmark, to provide material support to foreign terrorist plots, and to provide material support to Lashkar, and six counts of aiding and abetting the murder of U.S. citizens in India.

The charges were announced by Patrick J. Fitzgerald, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, and Robert D. Grant, Special Agent-in-Charge of the Chicago Office of the FBI. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Central District of California and the FBI’s offices in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., are also participating in the case.

“This case serves as a reminder that the terrorist threat is global in nature and requires constant vigilance at home and abroad,” said David Kris, Assistant Attorney General for National Security. “We continue to share leads developed in this investigation with our foreign and domestic law enforcement partners as we work together on this important matter.”

FBI Director Robert S. Mueller, III, said: “This case illustrates the importance of continued global cooperation to combat terrorism around the world. The FBI continues to strengthen relationships and to foster collaboration with our international partners to best ensure our collective ability to identify and disrupt international terror networks.”

“This investigation remains active and ongoing. The team of prosecutors and agents will continue to seek charges against the other persons responsible for these attacks. I continue to express my deep appreciation to the FBI agents and other members of the Joint Terrorism Task Force for their extremely hard work on this matter,” said Mr. Fitzgerald.

Mumbai Terror Attacks

According to the charges, after learning from members of Lashkar in late 2005 that he would be traveling to India to perform surveillance for Lashkar, Headley changed his name from Daood Gilani on Feb. 15, 2006, in Philadelphia, in order to present himself in India as an American who was neither Muslim nor Pakistani. He later made five extended trips to Mumbai — in September 2006, February and September 2007, and April and July 2008 — each time taking pictures and making videotapes of various targets, including those attacked in November 2008.

Starting Nov. 26, 2008, and continuing through Nov. 28, 2008, 10 attackers trained by Lashkar carried out multiple assaults with firearms, grenades and improvised explosive devices against multiple targets in Mumbai, including the Taj Mahal and Oberoi hotels, the Leopold Café, the Nariman House and the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus train station, each of which Headley allegedly had scouted in advance, killing approximately 170 victims.

The six Americans killed during the three-day siege are identified in the charges as Ben Zion Chroman, Gavriel Holtzberg, Sandeep Jeswani, Alan Scherr, his daughter Naomi Scherr, and Aryeh Leibish Teitelbaum.

Lashkar (the “Army of the Good”) operated in Pakistan for the principal purpose of fighting to separate from India portions of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. It was designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization on Dec. 26, 2001. Headley allegedly attended Lashkar training camps in Pakistan that began in February and August 2002 and August and December 2003.

After being tasked in late 2005 with gathering surveillance in Mumbai and changing his name in early 2006, the charges allege that Headley traveled to Chicago in June 2006 and advised a person identified in the charges as Individual A of his assignment. Headley obtained Individual A’s approval to open an office of First World Immigration Services in Mumbai in 2006 as cover for his surveillance activities, the charges allege. Headley allegedly misrepresented his birth name, father’s true name and the purpose of his travel in his visa application.

After each trip that Headley took to India between September 2006 and July 2008, he allegedly returned to Pakistan, met with other co-conspirators and provided them with photographs, videos and oral descriptions of various locations. In March 2008, Headley and his co-conspirators discussed potential landing sites for a team of attackers who would arrive by sea in Mumbai, and he was instructed to take boat trips in and around the Mumbai harbor and take surveillance video, which he did during his visit to India starting in April 2008, the charges allege.

At various times, Headley allegedly conducted surveillance of other locations in Mumbai and elsewhere in India of facilities and locations that were not attacked in November 2008, including the National Defense College in Delhi, India.

Denmark Terror Plot

Regarding the Denmark terror plot, Headley allegedly conspired between October 2008 and Oct. 3, 2009, with Ilyas Kashmiri, as well as a person identified as Individual A, members of Lashkar and others to plan and carry out terrorist attacks, including murder and maiming, against the facilities of the Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten, a Danish newspaper, and two of its employees, Editor A and Cartoonist A. In 2005, the newspaper published cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed, to which many Muslims took great offense.

Mirroring the initial charges filed against Headley in October, today’s charges allege that he met with co-conspirators while he was in Pakistan in late 2008 and discussed planning for the attack, including extensive surveillance work that he would perform. In late December and early January 2008, after advising Individual A of the planned attack and his intended travel to Denmark to perform surveillance of the newspaper’s facilities, Headley obtained Individual A’s approval and assistance to identify himself as a representative of First World and gain access to the newspaper by falsely expressing interest in advertising the business in the newspaper. At the same time, while in Chicago, Headley exchanged emails with co-conspirators to continue planning for the attack and coordinate his travel to Denmark to conduct surveillance. Before departing Chicago, Headley obtained business cards that identified him as a representative of First World, according to the charges.

Headley allegedly traveled in January 2009 from Chicago to Copenhagen, Denmark, to conduct surveillance of the Jyllands Posten newspaper offices in Copenhagen and Aarhus, Denmark, and videotaped the surrounding areas. From January through May 2009, Headley met with co-conspirators, including Kashmiri, on multiple occasions in Pakistan to review his surveillance and discuss plans for the attack, the charges allege, adding that Headley traveled in August 2009 from Chicago to Copenhagen to conduct additional surveillance and made approximately 13 videos. On Oct. 3, 2009, Headley was arrested at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, intending ultimately to travel to Pakistan to meet with, and deliver, the approximately 13 surveillance videos to co-conspirators, including Kashmiri.

The charges identify Kashmiri as an influential leader of Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI), an organization that trained terrorists and executed attacks in the state of Jammu and Kashmir under Indian control and other areas. Kashmiri based his operations from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of western Pakistan, and area which served as a haven for terrorist organizations, including al Qaeda and the Taliban. Headley allegedly was introduced to Kashmiri as early as February 2009, and understood that Kashmiri was in regular communication with the senior leadership of al Qaeda.

Abdur Rehman complaint

The two-count complaint unsealed against Abdur Rehman, which was filed on Oct. 20, 2009, charges him with conspiracy to murder and maim persons in a foreign country, and providing material support to that foreign terrorism conspiracy. Abdur Rehman allegedly participated in the planning of a terrorist attack in Denmark, coordinated surveillance of the intended targets, and facilitated communications regarding the surveillance and planning with a member of Lashkar and Kashmiri.

Abdur Rehman, who was not named previously but whose alleged participation was described in the initial charges against Headley and Rana, allegedly played the central role in communicating with Headley and facilitating contacts with other co-conspirators in Pakistan, including members of Lashkar. During Headley’s trip to Pakistan in January 2009, Abdur Rehman took him to the FATA region of Pakistan to meet with Kashmiri and solicit the participation of Kashmiri and his organization in the planned attack on the Danish newspaper, according to the complaint against Abdur Rehman. A search of Headley’s luggage when he was arrested revealed a list of phone numbers, including a Pakistani number that he allegedly had used to contact Abdur Rehman.

The count against Headley charging conspiracy to bomb public places in India that resulted in deaths carries a maximum statutory penalty of life imprisonment or death. All of the other counts against Headley carry a maximum of life imprisonment, except providing material support to the Denmark terror plot, which carries a maximum prison term of 15 years.

The conspiracy to murder or maim persons in a foreign country charge against Abdur Rehman carries a maximum penalty of life in prison, and the count of conspiracy to provide material support to terrorism carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison.

The prosecution of Headley and Abdur Rehman is being handled by Assistant U.S. Attorneys Daniel Collins and Victoria J. Peters from the Northern District of Illinois, with assistance from the Counterterrorism Section of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. The investigation into the Mumbai attacks is continuing with the active participation of the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Los Angeles.

The public is reminded that criminal charging documents contain mere allegations that are not evidence of guilt. The defendants are presumed innocent and are entitled to a fair trial at which the government has the burden of proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

Filed under: Connecting the Dots, War on Mumbai, War on Terror

Marking 26/11’s First Anniversary

 

 

 

 

 

 

This blog space intentionally left empty.

Lighted Candles strictly prohibited.

India’s response to Jihadi Terrorism cannot be episodic tokenism.

Filed under: DesiPundit, War on Mumbai, War on Terror

Ilyas Kashmiri targets India

We must thank Long War Journal’s Bill Roggio for alterting us in India to the second interview given by Ilyas Kashmiri to a Urdu language newspaper in Pakistan.

For the story so far read the Connect the dots series leading up to Ilyas Kashmiri’s recent interview to Syed Saleem Shahzad where he owns up to Mumbai 26/11 while drawing attention to an entity called the 313 Brigade which also found a mention in the Mumbai 26/11 phone intercepts.

Offstumped is reproducing the excerpt from Bill Roggio’s blog post supposed to be english translation of what Ilyas Kashmiri said

From the Daily Express article on Kashmiri:

After getting a detailed account of his activities, I asked him: if the Kashmir issue is resolved in accordance with the aspirations of the Kashmiri people, will you and your associates abandon your armed struggle and come to the national mainstream? For this, pat came the reply: “Do not forget the fact that after occupied Kashmir, we have to take back Hyderabad, Deccan, Junagarh, and Manawar from the Hindus.”
I gently repeated my question: “Assuming that these three areas will be taken back, then what?” After a lengthy pause, I got the answer: “Look, there will be need for jihad throughout the world. Besides Palestine, Chechnya, and Philippines, wherever atrocities will be committed on the Muslims, we will reach there.”

When I asked as to according to a major school of thought of Muslim religious scholars, jihad cannot be declared without the consent of the State, that in the modern times, peace accords are being made at global level and that it is not possible to deviate from those accords; there was silence for a few moments.

Then Ilyas Kashmiri said: “Brother, I am a simple field commander. I do not understand these Sharia issues. As such, if permission from the State and the Ameer [chief] is mandatory, then, we folks have taken oath from Mullah Omar and we consider him as Ameerul Momineen [chief of the faithful -- Muslims]. We have absolute permission from him to go to any place and engage ourselves in jihadi activities.”

In the same interview, Ilyas Kashmiri disclosed: “I have learned the art of war from the Arabs. The Arabs fighting in Afghanistan, including Egyptians and Palestinians, have adopted a separate style combining the war strategies of the Russians and Americans. I am an expert in that style. We have trained our boys also in that mode so that they can fight better than India’s regular army commandos.”

Ilyas Kashmiri’s references to Hyderabad and Junagadh reminds one of the Deccan Mujahideen email sent in the immediate aftermath of 26/11 and the earlier Indian Mujahideen emails.

Is someone in the security establishment paying attention ?

Filed under: Connecting the Dots, War on Mumbai, War on Terror

Illyas Kashmiri Connects the dots on Mumbai 26/11

For the story so far read the previous post on anti-Shia faultline within Pakistan’s Military Jihadi complex based on all previous posts on Mumbai 26/11 and Connecting the Dots series.

Since the weekend attack on Rawalpindi GHQ anticipation had been building on whodunit.

Yesteday Bill Roggio in the Long War Journal revealed that Asia Times Pakistan editor Syed Saleem Shahzad who has in the past provided many insights into the murky world of Neo-Taliban would be going to press today with an interview with Illyas Kashmiri the man believed to be dead in a drone attack.

Today Syed Saleem Shahzad went live with Part 1 of interview with Illyas Kashmiri.

Offstumped is reproducing excerpts from the interview in ATIMES which pretty much connects Indian Mujahideen attacks, Mumbai 26/11 to AL Qaeda’s regional strategy.

Ilyas Kashmiri gave his views on what the upcoming battle will look like, what its targets will be, and how it will impact the West in relation to the destabilization of a Muslim state such as Pakistan.

He is one of the most high-profile al-Qaeda commanders, with a Pakistani bounty of 50 million rupees (US$600,000) on his head. His position is defined differently by various intelligence and media organizations. Some say he is commander-in-chief of al-Qaeda’s global operations, while others say he is chief of al-Qaeda’s military wing.

The Kashmir Freedom Movement was his first exposure in the field of militancy, then the Harkat-ul Jihad-i-Islami (HUJI) and ultimately his legendary 313 Brigade. This grew into the most powerful group in South Asia and its network is strongly knitted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kashmir, India, Nepal and Bangladesh. According to some CIA dispatches, the footprints of 313 Brigade are now in Europe and capable of the type of attack that saw a handful of militants terrorize the Indian city of Mumbai last November.

His 313 Brigade is believed to be the main catalyst of high-profile operations such as the one in Mumbai and others in Afghanistan, as well as al-Qaeda’s operations in Somalia and to some extent in Iraq.

“So I and many people all across the world realized that analyzing the situation in any narrow regional political perspective was an incorrect approach. This is a different ball game altogether for which a unified strategy is compulsory. The defeat of American global hegemony is a must if I want the liberation of my homeland Kashmir, and therefore it provided the reasoning for my presence in this war theater.

Ilyas continued, “When I came here I found my step justified; how the world regional powers operate under the umbrella of the great Satan and how they are supportive of its great plans. This can be seen here in Afghanistan.” He added that al-Qaeda’s regional war strategy, in which they have hit Indian targets, is actually to chop off American strength.

“The RAW [India's Research and Analysis Wing] has detachment command centers in the Afghan provinces of Kunar, Jalalabad, Khost, Argun, Helmand and Kandahar. The cover operations are road construction companies. For instance, the road construction contract from Khost city to the Tanai tribe area is handled by a contractor who is actually a current Indian army colonel. In Gardez, telecommunication companies are the cover for Indian intelligence operations. Mostly, their men operate with Muslim names, but actually the employees are Hindus.”

“So should the world expect more Mumbai-like attacks?” I asked.

“That was nothing compared to what has already been planned for the future,” Ilyas replied.

Filed under: Connecting the Dots, DesiPundit, War on Mumbai, War on Terror

Faultlines within Pakistan’s Military-Jihadi Complex – A Hypothesis

First the disclaimer – As with any hypothesis that is the product of amateurish armchair analysis take this with a fistful of salt.

This hypothesis is an extension of the earlier “Connect the dots series” that culminated with a series of open questions,

Recounting the sequence of posts first for background context

Connecting the dots – Preface

Why Connect the dots ?

Background to Connecting the dots – Pre 2006

Background to Connecting the dots – During 2006

What if we Connect the dots ?

The Connected dots lead us to

Mumbai Dossier connects the dots

Ansarullah

Brescia Angle

The Punjabi Neo Taliban angle

Summary of conclusions from previous analysis:

It is clear that there is a faultline within the Military-Jihadi complex that runs common across the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jaish-e-Mohammad and the erstwhile Harkat outfits starting with their common origins to Anti-Shia ideologues, affiliation with Zarqawi and most importantly their fierce opposition to the Musharraf regime.

In contrast to this Jihadi faultline stands the Hafiz Saeed affiliated faction of the Lashkar-e-Taiba which while being rabidly anti-India was far less opposed to the “establishment” during the Musharraf years.

This faultline is also further validated by an analysis of the many speeches by the two chief protagonists of either Jihadi outfit – Masood Azhar and Haafiz Saeed where one sees Masood Azhar speaking out unambiguously against the Musharraf establishment while making no bones of his sympathies to Al-Qaeda, while Hafiz Saeed comes across as far more invested in the Pakistani Military establishment.

If one were to use this faultline as the basis to develope a hypothesis on the factional divide within the Pakistan Military Jihadi Complex it leads to some interesting scenarios

What if we hypothesised that the Pakistan Military Jihadi complex broadly comprised of two factions

Faction A that sponsored Hafiz Saeed affiliated Lashkar-e-Taiba

 Faction B sponsored Jaish-e-Mohmmad and Harkat affiliates

 Faction A was closely aligned with the Musharraf regime hence was able to get the Hafiz Saeed Lashkar-e-Taiba factions  to go slow on anti-India Jihad post 9/11. The Sadiq interview by Syed Saleem Shahzad in the Neo Taliban post above bears this out.

 Faction B was violently anti Musharraf having bore the brunt of his crackdown post 9/11. Faction B is behind most of the Anti-Musharraf activity including Lal Masjid and the many assassination attempts.  Faction B plays its cards well in the post Musharraf scenario orchestrating Benazir Bhutto’s assasination.

B. Raman’s latest post on the Rawalpindin GHQ attack this weekend identifies the factions from South Punjab with a history of anti-Musharraf activities

It is possible that the Tehrik-e-Taliban Punjab is also known as the Amjad Farooqi detachment of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in whose name the responsibility for the GHQ attack was

B. Raman further expands on Amjad Farooqi’s origins tracing them all the way through the anti-Shia faultline running throush SSP, HuA, HuM, IC-814 Hijacking to Kandahar that saw JeM’s Masood Azhar released, Daniel Pearls murder and the many Jundullah attempts to assasinate Musharraf.

Most intriguing closing remarks by B. Raman which give further boost to the speculation on Faction B

“One of the most mysterious aspects of the activities of the jihadi organisations in Pakistan is why Musharraf has always been reluctant to or even afraid of taking action against the HUJI. He has avoided banning it even after evidence of its penetration into the Army and the Air Force and its involvement in the plots against him.”

Continuing with hypothesis, in the post Musharraf scenario Faction A ends up weakened with the Hafiz Saeed affiliated Lashkar-e-Taiba left to fend for itself

Faction B however is far from being in control in the Zardari regime.

Faction B orchestrates Mumbai 26/11 with renegade elements of Lashkar-e-Taiba who had fallen out of favor with the Musharraf establishment and Hafiz Saeed.

The many media reports on Lakhvi’s differences with Hafiz Saeed, the Sadiq interview on NeoTaliban, and the many stories in Indian Media on Azam Cheema’s falling out with Lashkar-e-Taiba should give us reason to believe this as a plausible hypothesis. 

The intense power struggle within the Civilian establishment and with the Military over the post 26/11 Mumbai trial and arraignment of Hafiz Saeed is yet another indication of the factional intrigue. It is also curious that post 26/11 Masoo Azhar went out of circulation while Lakhvi and Hafiz Saeed almost waited to be nabbed.

 Faction B beefs up its arsenal meanwhile hence we see renewed JeM activity in Bahawalpur while Faction A suffers from international pressure on Zardari regime to tighten the squeeze on Hafiz Saeed affiliated LeT for Mumbai 26/11.

The latest arrests in the Rawalpindi GHQ throw up an interesting pattern. The Fidayeen style Swarm Attack modus operandi that surfaced in recent times first in Mumbai on November 26th 2008 has since been attempted 3 other times

2nd February 2009 in Kabul – B Raman draws the similarities with Mumbai, identifies the perpetrators as Neo-Taliban

3rd Match 2009 in Lahore – B Raman on similarities to Mumbai and Kabul

And this weekend’s GHQ attack in Rawalpindi

With the last two attacks being attributed to the anti-Shia anti-Musharraf faultline of LeJ, JeM, HuA with affiliation to the Punjabi Taliban and the earlier Kabul attack also attributed to the Neo-Taliban aka Punjabi Taliban,

 it is safe to say that 3 out of 4 attacks consistent with the modus operandi that has come to be identified with Mumbai 26/11 have been carried out by groups on this side of the Military Jihadi faultline.

In a strange way it fits the pattern first identified by Offstumped in conclusion to the Connecting the Dots series in the aftermath of Mumbai 26/11 with most of the dots pointing to a Zarqawi affiliated later day generation of Jihadists referred to by some as Al Qaeda 2.0.

If that indeed were to be the case it begs the question who within the Pakistan Military Jihadi Complex is sponsoring Faction B and what is their end game ?

Filed under: Connecting the Dots, DesiPundit, War on Mumbai, War on Terror

India Elections 2009 – Focus on Mumbai

How many remember any of this ?

What is more interesting however is the change in mood in India, more so in the english news media outlets.

Setting up the tone right off was the Indian Express which carried several op-ed pieces from columnists like Pratap Bhanu Mehta apart from its own editorial. Shishir Gupta in the Indian Express talked about why Dr. Manmohan Singh must abandon political correctness and listen to the grim evidence emerging from the killing fields of Mumbai. The Indian Express’ editorial position was even more direct and stinging when it decried the Congress led UPA Government’s Communalization of Anti-Terror Policy. Going a step further the Indian Express also called Dr. Singh’s state of denial on Pakistan’s sponsorship of terror by asking him to boldly embark on a path of openly supporting the democratic movement in Pakistan. The Indian Express also carried a rather surprising opinion piece from Abhishek Singhvi that called for inflicting a heavy price on terrorists for their actions, irrespective of whether they live in Karachi, Dubai, Dhaka, the mountains of Afghanistan, or lowlands of Myanmar.

The traditionally left of center Outlook Magazine carried a commentary from the leading light of Counter-Terrorism in India, KPS Gill on why mere rhetoric in Parliament and Media is insufficient to fight terror while lamenting on the lack of political will in India to take terror head on.

The Daily News and Analysis in separate editorial pieces came out strongly that the time had come to say enough and called on the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to act now. The normally Left of Center Hindu with its pacifist positions made a closing remark in its lead editorial that hard decisions based on a rigorous analysis of India’s options in the face of recurrent acts of terror can no longer be deferred.

That was a round up of the mood of the nation reflected in the lead editorials of english language newspapers across India on 14th July 2006 after a series of blasts struck local trains in Mumbai on 7-11.

With election campaign for the Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai set to wind down today, Offstumped reminds the residents of Mumbai to not forget and to not forgive those who let this city down badly for a second time in as many years.

Especially those who continue to tout 100 day roadmaps that have lost meaning while continuing to be vague on how they will prevent the next attack on Mumbai to pass the buck back to that indomitable spirit of Mumbai.

Filed under: DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, War on Mumbai, War on Terror, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

The Foreign Policy Debate that never was

It must be odd to any external observer that an election campaign in a 21st century economic power should be so bereft of any serious debate on foreign policy vision at a time when two of its major neighbors are facing serious existential crises.

It is a miracle that for a democracy surrounded by hostile borders and neighbours in turmoil on almost all four sides, the Indian economic success story trudges along.

But then if we have aspirations of matching a China if not outpacing it, isnt it time to have a serious debate on which national party has the ideas and the acumen to transform these hostile borders ?

Isnt it also time we had a serious debate on which national party has the vision to take us to an era of benign frontiers that boost economic growth rather than be a drag on it with the constant threat of conflict ?

The Manmohan Singh dispensation with its single point focus on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal stands guilty first of antiquated thinking in its first 2 years in office with Natwar Singh as foreign minister and then delinquency with Manmohan Singh not appointing a replacement. By the time Pranab Mukherjee assumed office he was compensating for Manmohan Singh’s lack of political acumen by heading over 50 GoMs and taming an intransigent Left on the Nuclear Deal.

The casualty of this delinquency and lack of focus on Foreign Policy beyond the Nuclear Deal and Af-Pak Fak-Ap, is the diminished Indian Leadership in the sub-continent, the latest being the Sri Lankan crisis.

The BJP’s formulation of Muscular Diplomacy hasnt quite answered the fundamental question this blogger has posed on our hostile borders. Muscular Diplomacy at best can be a tactical option amongst many that could be pursued to achieve an end goal.

The larger question for the BJP’ is what is its strategic vision on the foreign policy front to create a benign conflict-free neighborhood that boosts our economic growth.

Can we have debate on this please, even at this late hour ?

A reproduction of Offstumped post on SAARC from April 2007 follows.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has opened its annual summit in New Delhi. This was the 14th summit since its inception. The two-day SAARC Summit, attended by leaders from eight countries including the latest entrant Afghanistan, agreed to take “every possible measure” to stop financing of terror acts and counter trafficking of narcotics and illicit arms. The eight-page Declaration took note of India’s initiative for a SAARC Convention on Mutual Assistance in Criminal matters to effectively combat terrorism and organised crime. Terming the Declaration as “comprehensive and forward-looking”, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said it gave SAARC a wider mandate to promote peace and development in the region, including through greater connectivity in trade, movement of people and through the flow of ideas. The document was adopted by the leaders from Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bangladesh and Bhutan.

In a stinging analysis of the SAARC bonhomie, FT’s South Asia bureau chief Jo Johnson called the summit lacklustre and said India still has much to learn from China’s deft economic diplomacy. His argument

While Beijing has sought to create interdependencies with its rivals, in support of its stated ambitions for a “peaceful rise”, New Delhi appears complacent about the fact that it presides over the least economically integrated region in the world

Offstumped takes a hard look at SAARC and the sorry state of affairs in our neighbourhood.

“hughty, foolishly vain, self-conceited and stolid” was how one translation of Al-Beruni’s observations on India puts it. Perceptions of Indiahave come a long way since but not so in our immideate neighbourhood. Jo Johnson puts it glibly – Good fences make good neighbours, but India has taken the saying too literally. What is it about us and our neighbourhood that makes regional co-operation so challenging ?

Offstumped’s hypothesis is that we are an angry neighbourhood and therein lies the challenge.

The net aggregate anger across the countries that make up any neighbourhood should be a good measure of neighbourly bonhomie or lack of.

Let us take the NAFTA region as an example – politics in the U.S. is generally marked by an apathetic and ignorant majority influenced by a highly motivated and angry minority. Given the high opportunity costs of sustaining public anger, the micro-minority’s contribution to the aggregate anger is small if not insignificant. One can see this anger manifest itself in the ongoing Immigration debate and tighter borders but not serious enough to really derail cross border free trade. The region has definitely transformed from the pre-9/11 days of benign borders to the present times of a vigilant Homeland Security and vigilante Minutemen, but economic integration and free trade continues to flourish albeit some hiccups.

Across the pond, the net aggregate anger in the European Union saw itself manifest in strong resistance to EU Constitution vote sometime back and immigrant unfriendly legislations in recent times. Fears of the Polish Plumber and Indian Steelman on the one hand and Muslim Immigrant anger on the other saw hurdles to greater economic integration but was not significant enough to derail or rollback current levels of economic integration.

Coming to our own neighbourhood the net aggregate anger is assuming “cardiac arrest proportions” and a regional meltdown should not be ruled out. Starting with anger across rural Nepal fanned by the Maoists to the anger in the streets of Bangladesh fanned by a mismanaged democracy and irrepresible Islamic demagogues, sub-continental anger has been at a high. With the Lankan crisis escalating with recent air strikes by LTTE and the fluidity in Pakistan on account of anti-Musharraf turmoil, India not only suffers volatile borders but also very angry neighbors dwelling across those borders.

That brings us to the topic at hand on SAARC. With all this anger it is no surprise SAARC continues to be a dysfunctional showpiece of South Asian co-operation. When the Lankan crisis was brewing last August, Offstumped had called for a full time foreign minister in the Manmohan Singh Government to don the mantle of South Asian Leadership. Many months later when in October Manmohan Singh had finally appointed Pranab Mukherjee as the foreign minister Offstumped had pointed out why his appointment was nothing to celebrate.

Offstumped Bottomline: The FT’s Jo Johnson makes an important observation when he contrasts India’s lacklustre foreign policy leadership with deal making China. Manmohan Singh’s foreign policy flourishes have been limited to the yet to materialize Indo-US Nuke Deal and the Havana self-goal in the Joint Terrorism Mechanism with Pakistan. Apart from empty rhetoric of foreign policy independence manifested in the “all talk no action” Iran Pipeline project the UPA Government has failed miserably on the foreign policy front.

South Asia needs an urgent dose of Anger Management, who better than peace loving India to deliver it, if only our Foreign Minister showed more dynamism and leadership.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Rajasthan Polls 2008, War on Mumbai, War on Terror, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

India Elections 2009 – Congress wakes up to Terror threat

Jairam Ramesh the Congress Party’s Coordinator for Election Related Affairs for the Lok Sabha 2009 polls made public a document released earlier in the week by Home Minister Chidambaram on the Congres Party’s pledge on protecting India from Terror.

In his e-mail Mr. Ramesh lists a number of measures taken after the Mumbai 26/11 attacks like the NIA and the UAPA. Mr. Ramesh however fails to mention any measures taken by the UPA between 2004 and November of 2008.

Mr. Ramesh’s email is also conspicuous in its silence on the ill-famed India Pakistan Joint Anti-Terrorism Institutional Mechanism, that was announced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after the deadly 7/11 serial train blasts of 2006 in Mumbai.

Mr. Ramesh’s email claims the Congress will not waste a single day in fighting terror while being woefully silent on the period since the scrapping of POTA in 2004 and the deadly attacks in Mumbai in November of 2008.

The document also makes it a point to highlight that “Religious Polarization” is inimical to the fight on terror, a strange comment after having scrapped POTA on grounds of Muslim sensititvities and not replaced it with any new law for 5 years till 26/11.

The document is not short on scoring political points with references to Kargil, Kandahar, Prakram and the allegation that IPS recruitment suffered between 1998 and 2004.

Nevertheless the Congress Party’s promise on Terror must be dissected and analysed for its worthiness. The document is 13 pages long and begins with a Section titled “Context” which interestingly enough carries a tacit admission of guilt by the Congress that the document only lists measures taken after 26/11.

It lays out five tenets as the foundation for the Congress Party’s anti-terror strategy but only talks of preparedness and response to threats after they manifest. The strategy is silent on pre-empting threats before they manifest.

The most significant aspect lacuna in the strategy is it doesnt highlight capabilities needed to eliminate threats that manifest outside the borders of India and capabilities needed to root out sponsors of Terror who are sheltered by sympathetic foreign governments.

The section on Human Assets focuses more on scoring political points against the BJP while explaining little on what was done to rectify IPS recruitment between 2004 and 2009. It only talks of plans to improve recruitment post 2009. 

The much maligned 100 day roadmap makes an appearance after complete silence from the Government ever since it was announced. More promises are made on plans to come including review of VVIP security.

The most glaring gap in the section on Human Assets is no talk of how external Intelligence will be revamped to infiltrate networks of terror outside Indian borders. With most Terror in India manifesting outside our borders it is strange that the Congress Party’s strategy is silent on how it will learn of new threats to come and how it will anticipate new modus operandi.

The section on Actionable Intelligence and Cutting edge Analytics sounds more like a commercial for Oracle BI with more talk on Databases like the NATGRID and the CCTNS.

It also curiously includes a treatise on the National ID Card Project. The document makes it a point to say ID Card project was not pursued by NDA but fails to explain what the UPA did for 5 years on the ID Card project.

This section has more technology jargon on what tools the Congress intends to develop to make intelligence actionable but it fails to explain how the Intelligence will be acquired in the first place. 

A closer look at the technology jargon used in this section is a must for it sounds more like a listing of Graduate School project topics

Threat Assessment Modeling, Artificial Neural Networks and Three Dimensional Modeling of Critical Infrastructure

Another curious and out of place proposal is a Citizen’s Campaign with no explanation of what it has to do with Actionable Intelligence or Advanced Analytics.

The section on empowered and coordinated Security Agencies is vague on what new Command and Control structures will be in place and how they will be empowered on decision making. The lone exception is the recent decision on the Indian Navy being the nodal authority on Coastal Security.

The second pillar on Rapid Response is again woefully lacking on the National Security Architecture to respond to acts of terror. It instead passes the buck to the States by disposing off the subject with adequate support shall be given to the States.

It goes further to explain how mistakes and lessons from the last terror strike will be addressed like the non-availability of aircraft while demonstrating little imagination on anticipating likely future needs and how they will be provided for.

The Permanent Crisis Management Group (War Room) and a Standard Operating Procedure with a U.S. like color coded threat level scheme are promised for the future. It doesnt however explain how the War Room will be empowered to make decisions within the National Security Architecture with the buck being passed to the States on response to threats.

The rest of the document describes how the Congress will bring Terrorists to justice while failing to explain how it will address the unique problem facing India where the key conspirators and sponsors of Terror reside outside India.

In conclusion it is fair to say that the Congress’ anti-terror strategy rests on dealing with Terror threats on Indian soil after they have manifested rather than pre-empting and preventing them from manifesting before they reach Indian soil.

In fact the entire 13 page document stands out for making zero mention of safe havens for terrorists outside Indian borders in Pakistan and elswewhere which makes this whole exercise highly questionable.

Any credible anti-terror strategy must first begin by articulating the nature of terror threat faced by India.

It must go on to outlining the National Security Architecture needed to deal with that threat before spelling out the different Protocols and Command/Control structures needed to deal with terror threats pre-emptively and after the fact.

It must then specify the necessary tools from a surveillance, intelligence acquisition, analysis and dissemination standpoint to aid in real time decision making

Finally it must outline the legislative framework necessary to bring the terrorists and their sponsors to justice irrespective of where they are.

On all of these counts the Congress Party’s Anti-Terror strategy is woefully inadequate for it leaves unstated where finally the buck will stop in protecting India from the Terror threat.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, War on Mumbai, War on Terror, amarnath controversy, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

Dissecting Congress Party’s Anti-Terror approach

Jairam Ramesh the Congress Party’s Coordinator for Election Related Affairs for the Lok Sabha 2009 polls made public a document released earlier in the week by Home Minister Chidambaram on the Congres Party’s pledge on protecting India from Terror.

In his e-mail Mr. Ramesh lists a number of measures taken after the Mumbai 26/11 attacks like the NIA and the UAPA. Mr. Ramesh however fails to mention any measures taken by the UPA between 2004 and November of 2008.

Mr. Ramesh’s email is also conspicuous in its silence on the ill-famed India Pakistan Joint Anti-Terrorism Institutional Mechanism, that was announced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after the deadly 7/11 serial train blasts of 2006 in Mumbai.

Mr. Ramesh’s email claims the Congress will not waste a single day in fighting terror while being woefully silent on the period since the scrapping of POTA in 2004 and the deadly attacks in Mumbai in November of 2008.

The document also makes it a point to highlight that “Religious Polarization” is inimical to the fight on terror, a strange comment after having scrapped POTA on grounds of Muslim sensititvities and not replaced it with any new law for 5 years till 26/11.

The document is not short on scoring political points with references to Kargil, Kandahar, Prakram and the allegation that IPS recruitment suffered between 1998 and 2004.

Nevertheless the Congress Party’s promise on Terror must be dissected and analysed for its worthiness. The document is 13 pages long and begins with a Section titled “Context” which interestingly enough carries a tacit admission of guilt by the Congress that the document only lists measures taken after 26/11.

It lays out five tenets as the foundation for the Congress Party’s anti-terror strategy but only talks of preparedness and response to threats after they manifest. The strategy is silent on pre-empting threats before they manifest.

The most significant aspect lacuna in the strategy is it doesnt highlight capabilities needed to eliminate threats that manifest outside the borders of India and capabilities needed to root out sponsors of Terror who are sheltered by sympathetic foreign governments.

The section on Human Assets focuses more on scoring political points against the BJP while explaining little on what was done to rectify IPS recruitment between 2004 and 2009. It only talks of plans to improve recruitment post 2009. 

The much maligned 100 day roadmap makes an appearance after complete silence from the Government ever since it was announced. More promises are made on plans to come including review of VVIP security.

The most glaring gap in the section on Human Assets is no talk of how external Intelligence will be revamped to infiltrate networks of terror outside Indian borders. With most Terror in India manifesting outside our borders it is strange that the Congress Party’s strategy is silent on how it will learn of new threats to come and how it will anticipate new modus operandi.

The section on Actionable Intelligence and Cutting edge Analytics sounds more like a commercial for Oracle BI with more talk on Databases like the NATGRID and the CCTNS.

It also curiously includes a treatise on the National ID Card Project. The document makes it a point to say ID Card project was not pursued by NDA but fails to explain what the UPA did for 5 years on the ID Card project.

This section has more technology jargon on what tools the Congress intends to develop to make intelligence actionable but it fails to explain how the Intelligence will be acquired in the first place. 

A closer look at the technology jargon used in this section is a must for it sounds more like a listing of Graduate School project topics

Threat Assessment Modeling, Artificial Neural Networks and Three Dimensional Modeling of Critical Infrastructure

Another curious and out of place proposal is a Citizen’s Campaign with no explanation of what it has to do with Actionable Intelligence or Advanced Analytics.

The section on empowered and coordinated Security Agencies is vague on what new Command and Control structures will be in place and how they will be empowered on decision making. The lone exception is the recent decision on the Indian Navy being the nodal authority on Coastal Security.

The second pillar on Rapid Response is again woefully lacking on the National Security Architecture to respond to acts of terror. It instead passes the buck to the States by disposing off the subject with adequate support shall be given to the States.

It goes further to explain how mistakes and lessons from the last terror strike will be addressed like the non-availability of aircraft while demonstrating little imagination on anticipating likely future needs and how they will be provided for.

The Permanent Crisis Management Group (War Room) and a Standard Operating Procedure with a U.S. like color coded threat level scheme are promised for the future. It doesnt however explain how the War Room will be empowered to make decisions within the National Security Architecture with the buck being passed to the States on response to threats.

The rest of the document describes how the Congress will bring Terrorists to justice while failing to explain how it will address the unique problem facing India where the key conspirators and sponsors of Terror reside outside India.

In conclusion it is fair to say that the Congress’ anti-terror strategy rests on dealing with Terror threats on Indian soil after they have manifested rather than pre-empting and preventing them from manifesting before they reach Indian soil.

In fact the entire 13 page document stands out for making zero mention of safe havens for terrorists outside Indian borders in Pakistan and elswewhere which makes this whole exercise highly questionable.

Any credible anti-terror strategy must first begin by articulating the nature of terror threat faced by India.

It must go on to outlining the National Security Architecture needed to deal with that threat before spelling out the different Protocols and Command/Control structures needed to deal with terror threats pre-emptively and after the fact.

It must then specify the necessary tools from a surveillance, intelligence acquisition, analysis and dissemination standpoint to aid in real time decision making

Finally it must outline the legislative framework necessary to bring the terrorists and their sponsors to justice irrespective of where they are.

On all of these counts the Congress Party’s Anti-Terror strategy is woefully inadequate.

In closing it must be said that rather than view National Security wholistically the Congress Party continues to view the Terror threat from the narrow lens of the Union Home Ministry, thus leaving unstated where finally the buck will stop in protecting India from the Terror threat.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharma-debates, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, War on Mumbai, War on Terror, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

Assam Blasts – UPA’s shame

With just a week away from the first phase of elections, Assam has been struck by serial blasts.

While details are still sketchy on this concerted attack in multiple towns of Assam Karbi Anglong, Guwahati, Dhekiajuli and at Mankachar area in Dhubri district along Indo-Bangladesh border, this PTI report with eye-witness accounts is troubling:

The sound of the explosion at Maligaon was heard over two kilometres away and many residents here complained of deafness for several hours afterwards.

The bomb, suspected to have been kept in a car in busy Maligaon Chariali near the North East Frontier Railway headquarters, ripped through the parking lot in front of a restaurant killing seven people and injuring 61 others.

A panic-stricken man, identified as Ramesh Deka, jumped to death from the roof of a three-storey commercial building where a fire broke out after the blast, which also set ablaze over 20 motorbikes and cars in the parking lot.

Panic-stricken people in the building rushed to the roof after the fire.

The people were angered as there was delay in the arrival of ambulances and the fire brigade and attacked the police.

“Blasts have become a regular feature in Assam, particularly in Guwahati, but police and security personnel remain apathetic to the condition of the common people who suffer the most in such incidents,” said an angry 40-year-old Hemanta Kalita.

The choice of a Car Bomb if confirmed should lead us to not settle for the standard explanation of ULFA or the many assorted separatist groups in Assam.

It must be noted that the Indian Mujahideen are far from being busted completely.

Most specifically Indian Mujahideen operative Tauqeer a.k.a Abdul Subhan Qureshi was involved in the October 2008 Guwahati Blasts claiming responsibilty under the banner of the Indian Mujahideen – Islamic Security Force.

Tauqeer continues to be absconding and his links to Bangaldesh based groups should give us sufficient reason to probe the Islamist Terror angle on this series of blasts before dismissing these blasts away as yet another handiwork of ULFA or NDFB.

Reproducing Offstumped post on 17th Jan 2009 discussing Tauqeer’s link to Assam Blasts.

A story on Jan 1st 2009 that appeared in the CNN-IBN is interesting.

The title of the story while focused on Assam politics hides some very important information.

A call from a Bangladeshi number +925420157622 routed through service centre number +92545000088 is intercepted.

One of the masterminds, Tauqir of the Islamist Security Force, Indian Mujahideen along with associate Jahangir are asked to shift base.

Security forces are exploring if the same Tauqir is also involved in the Ahmedabad blasts.

In another intercept, Tauqir was to inform Jahangir through an email to meet their Bangladeshi associate Taijam Bobo at the Agartala base.

Yet another Bangladeshi fundamentalist leader Baba is heard congratulating Taijam Bobo for the serial blasts.

This second reference to Baba in a telephone intercept between suspected terrorists is yet another correlation to the possibility of Azam Cheema being the common thread across the Indian Mujahideen series of attacks, the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the October 2008 Guwahati Blasts.

But the startling aspect of the CNN-IBN story is that “Security forces are still unsure if the Tauqeer in the intercept” is the same Tauqeer accused in the Ahmedabad Blasts.

It is a telling tale of our times that the Indian Security Apparatus is clueless on how this new breed of white collar Jihadists have been using the Internet to not just leave a trail after their acts of terror but have also been using the Internet to forewarn of acts to come.

For example here is a startling Offstumped discovery.

The Guwahati Blasts that were claimed by the Islamic Security Force Indian Mujahideen occured on the 30th of October 2008. However on 24th October a YouTube video appeared on a channel used in the past to post content sympathetic to the Indian Mujahideen.

In that video Tauqeer is not just glorified but also a poser is thrown towards the end of the 3 minute video clip challenging the viewers to guess “What Tauqeer would do next ? ”

6 days later the Guwahati Blasts occur and we now learn belatedly of a possible Tauqeer connection

Filed under: Dharmayudh-2009, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, War on Mumbai, War on Terror