BJP’s Next President – An Online Poll

Who would you vote to be BJP’s Next President
(polls)

Filed under: surveys

India Elections 2009 – Countdown begins

The die is cast people with the election commission announcing a 5 phase poll from April 16th to May 13th and counting of votes on May 16th.

In addition to daily posts on developments in the election campaign Offstumped will have the following coverage.

#1 Track Instant Offstumped Reactions via Twitter, you can also subscribe to the Twitter XML feed. One of the features of Twitter is to distribute soundbites via SMS, consider subscribing to mobile phone updates if you can afford it. Nothing work best to spread the word around, than SMS.

#2 Today’s YouTube/Online Video Pick will highlight the most compelling election videos online. You can find them on the sidebar

#3 Today’s News/Op-ed Pick will highlight the most compelling news story or op-ed piece of the day. You can also find this on the sidebar

#4 Report Live/First Hand will be a place where Offstumped Readers in different parts of India can post first hand experiences and anecdotes from events that attend. Some of you have already done that from the recent Friends of BJP event featuring Arun Jaitley.

#5 Offstumped Current Projection will be this blogger’s take on the various projections by drive-by psephologists and will appear on the second side-bar.

#6 Offstumped on Scribd for background data from Election Commission and Press Information Bureau site for Elections 2009

An important part of the coverage will be “Rahul Gandhi Watch”.

There is a lot of debate on what this election ought to be.

Many voices of prudence believe this election was the BJP’s to lose and it didnt capitalize on the poor state of the economy and the bungling of internal seurity.

Many other voices in the Delhi based media believe this election is the Congress’ to win having pulled off a 5 year term.

This blogger has a different opinion.

Whether we like it or not we dont have a national election and we will not have one till either a single emotive issue dominates the election going-in or we opt for a second Republic to directly elect the Chief Executive.

In the absence of a single overriding national issue this will come down to a deeply personal and at some level emotional choice that every voter has to make.

This blogger has made his choice on the basic fundamental issue of values and Dharma.

We may debate endlessly on whether either of the parties has an economic model or a sound approach for security.

But there is one issue on which there is no ambiguity and the distinction is stark.

Mr. Sudheendra Kulkarni writing in his blog framed it very well saying its “Vanshbhogi versus Karma Yogi“.

The Congress has repeatedly demonstrate that it lacks basic values when it comes to ethics or Constitutionality – Pratibha Patil, Navin Chawla, Cash for Votes,  Governor’s actions in Goa, Meghalaya and Jharkhand.

It is on this fundamental distinction that the Congress must be voted out if not anything else.

Filed under: CNN-IBN Boycott, Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Constituent Assembly, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Offstumped on Twitter, Pratibha Patil, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat, surveys

Dissecting Battleground Uttar Pradesh

Last week Offstumped had floated a survey with the below questions

1. What do you think is the average monthly income of a below poverty line rural household ?
 
2. Which income segment do you think accounts for a majority of the population ?
    
     a) less than 250
     b) 250 to 500 rupees
     c) 500 to 1500 rupees
     d) greater than 1500 rupees
 
3. If you were to place your bets on which income segment outnumbers the other where would you place your bets ?
     a) less than 500 rupees
     b) greater than 500 rupees
 
4. As an example of the 70 districts in Uttar Pradesh accounting for 80 Lok Sabha seats how many do you think would match your responses for Qns 2 and 3 ?

A sampling of the 2002 census of rural households had got Offstumped started on a hypothesis which has interesting implications on how the battle for the 80 Lok Sabha seats is likely to pan out.

Uttar Pradesh has 70 districts of which 50 had collected data on rural households. While the survey was broad in scope Offstumped was specifically interested in average rural household income by social group.

The survey had 5 buckets to group income levels

a) less than 250

b) between 250 and 500

c) between 500 and 1500

d) between 1500 and 2500

e) greater than 2500

At the aggregate state level it is interesting to note that Uttar Pradesh not only has the highest number rural households in the middle income group of 500-1500 with 71 lakhs but more interestingly the number of households with income greater than 1500 (60 lakhs) far outnumbers the number of households with income less than 500 (30 lakhs).

But the devil as usual is in the details so Offstumped had got down to examine the 50 districts on how the average rural household income is distributed.

For the purpose of of this analysis Offstumped had classified the districts into 6 levels – Level 0 to Level 5

Level 0 – districts where households with income less than 500 outnumber all other income groups

Level 1 – districts where households with income between 500-1500 are the highest but also have more people with income less than 500 than those with income greater than 1500 (more poorest of poor than middle income or rich).

Level 2 – districts where households with income between 500-1500 are not just the highest but also outnumber the poorest of poor and the rich by a wide margin. (middle income districts where both the poor and the relatively well to do are a minority)

Level 3 – districts where  households with income between 500-1500 are the highest but the relatively rich (income greater 1500) outnumber the poor (income less than 500) consistent with the overall characteristics of the state

Level 4 – districts where households with income greater than 1500 outnumber households with income between 500-1500

Level 5 – districts where 1500-2500 is the highest income group overall in the state

The analysis of income data for the 50 districts reveals the below distribution

Level 0 – No districts

Level 1 – only 4 districts

Level 2 – highest level with 19 districts

Level 3 – next highest with 13 districts

Level 4 – next highest with 10 districts

Level 5 – 4 districts

Offstumped then started to look at how the districts in each of these levels voted in the last assembly election in 2007 and in other previous elections to discern any correlation between dominant income level and nature of contest.

Level 1 – In the 4 districts of Jaunpur, barabanki, mirzapur and sant kabeer nagar it is a 2 way battleground between the BSP and the SP with the BJP mostly a distant third or not even in the picture

Level 2 – In the 19 districts only 2 districts of Lucknow and Balrampur had the BJP dominate while in the remaining 17 districts it was either the BSP or the SP in the lead with the BJP and in very few places the Congress in the third place with Sonia Gandhi’s Rae Barelli the lone exception. There are also some districts where it was a BSP versus BJP/others with some very close fights and narrow victory margins.

Level 3 – Of the 13 districts it was interesting that there were atleast 4 districts (Etah, Faizabad, agra and gorakhpur) where it was mostly a BSP versus BJP or a SP versus BJP battleground. While Sultanpur (amethi) was a congress pocket borough, in the remaining 8 districts it was a BSP versus SP battleground in districts like Azamgarh with a large muslim population with the BJP coming a close third in quite a few

Level 4 – It gets really interesting in these 10 districts where with the exception of Budaun which seems a Yadav stronghold of sorts, its a BJP or RLD battleground against the BSP with the SP rarely in the picture in districts like Baghpat, Mathura, Varnasi, Saharanpur, Bulandshahr, Muzaffarnagar, Mau, Bijnor and Sant Ravidas Nagar.

Level 5 – With the exception of Firozabad, it once again its BJP or RLD battleground against th BSP with the SP rarely in the picture in Ghaziabad, Mahamayanagar and Meerut.

This essentially has 4 major implications for electoral strategies in Uttar Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections if we were to take these 50 districts as being representative of the entire state 

• The BJP does well in higher income districts
• A BJP-RLD alliance is a no brainer
• In the majority of the lower income districts its a BSP versus SP fight posing a steep challenge for the BJP to script a comeback trail in Uttar Pradesh

Based on this Offstumped feels the BJP’s electoral strategy for the Lok Sabha in Uttar Pradesh must be to seal the Level 4/5 districts with a RLD alliance while focusing its energies on recovery almost exclusively on the opportunities in Level 3 districts to displace Mayawati’s BSP through a platform that has an emphasis on economic issues that size up to the economic aspirations of the social mix in these districts.

More on what those issues ought to be in subsequent  posts.

Filed under: DesiPundit, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat, surveys , q

Offstumped Survey – How well do you know India ?

1. What do you think is the average monthly income of a below poverty line rural household ?
 
2. Which income segment do you think accounts for a majority of the population ?
    
     a) less than 250
     b) 250 to 500 rupees
     c) 500 to 1500 rupees
     d) greater than 1500 rupees
 
3. If you were to place your bets on which income segment outnumbers the other where would you place your bets ?
     a) less than 500 rupees
     b) greater than 500 rupees
 
4. As an example of the 70 districts in Uttar Pradesh accounting for 80 Lok Sabha seats how many do you think would match your responses for Qns 2 and 3 ?

Filed under: Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, surveys