India Elections 2009 Results – Live Blogging

With the votes set to be counted for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, here is what Offstumped is looking forward to today.

#1 Will the BJP overtake the Congress as the single largest party and if so by what margin ?

#2 Will Andhra turn in a hung assembly and if so how will the power equations be re-writtent by the voters. Specifically can the TDP manage the numbers with TRS and others or does the Congress have an outside chance by roping in Chiranjeevi’s PRP ?

#3 Will Orissa turn out a hung assembly. Specifically can Naveen Patnaik’s BJD manage the numbers with others or will he be compelled to a suicidal embrace of the Congress. Will Orissa become the next Karnataka for the BJP ?

#4 Will Maharashtra continue to deliver a split verdict or has the BJP-Shiv Sena combine turned the corner in this key large state ?

#5 Will Tamil Nadu’s unusually high turnout mean a AIADMK sweep or will it be a split verdict for Tamil Nadu’s revolving door politics ?

Specific bellwhether seats of interest are

#1 Mandi in Himachal Pradesh which has voted for the party that has formed the government last 6 elections. A BJP loss here would be ominous

#2 Will Dumka in Jharkhand vote against JMM/Congress/RJD

#3 Will Mayurbhanj in Orissa vote against BJP ?

#4 Will Nandyal in Andhra vote against Congress ?

#5 Will Mahabubnagar in Andhra surprise the TRS by dumping KCR ?

#6 Will Peddapalle in Andhra vote against the Congress ?

#7 Will the BJP sweep Rajmahal, Godda, Jamshedpur and Giridih in Jharkhand ?

#8 Which of these 3 Gujarat bellwhether seats will BJP wrest or retain – Anand, Bulsar, Banaskantha ?

#9 Which way will Kangra in Himachal Pradesh go ?

#10 What about bellwhether seats in Chattisgarh (Mahasamund), Maharashtra (Ahmednagar), Punjab (Jalandher), Rajasthan (Sikar), West Bengal (Dum-dum)

#11 How many of the bellwhether seats in Orissa of Aska, Phulbani, Bolangir, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Sundargarh will go to BJP ?

#12 Finally will any of the 4 bellwhether seats of Tamil Nadu Vellore, Chidambaram, Coimbatore, Nagappatnam fall to the AIADMK lead alliance ?

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PS: As this goes to press, a short email exchange with reliable quarters in the BJP reveals fairly high confidence, fingers crossed.

Filed under: CNN-IBN Boycott, Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharma-debates, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Offstumped, Offstumped on Twitter, Pratibha Patil, Rajasthan Polls 2008, War on Terror, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

Morality of Elections

With another 24 hours to go before we learn the mind of the Indian voter, we are once agained regaled with endless speculation on how the Congress has many paths to power and how the BJP has few options.

Looking beyond the many possible deals that can be struck between the ADMK, BSP, SP, TDP, BJD and the rest of the alphabet soup, it is important to not lose sight of the morality of this election.

In 2005 the voters of Bihar expressed their disgust at the 15 year corrup rule of the Lalu Yadav lead RJD with the support of the Congress. In a blatant repudiation of the voter’s sentiment the Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP attempted to drive a hard bargain with the RJD with the Congress appointed Governor Buta Singh lending a helping hand.

The LJP, Congress and the RJD had to eventually pay a high price for violating the morality of the Feb 2005 election with the BJP-JD(U) under Nitish Kumar sweeping the October 2005 election.

In 2004 Karnataka voted to punish the S.M. Krishna lead Congress government by favoring the BJP as the single largest party. In a blatant repudiation of the sentiment of the Karnataka voter, the Congress made common cause with the JD-S to form a government by seeking moral sanction under a dubious secularism. Two years later the JD-S parted ways with the Congress to form a government with the BJP before betraying within 12 months.

With its morality violated twice Karnataka voted the BJP to power in 2008 with vengeance that saw both the Congress and to a larger degree JD-S pay a heavy price for their myopic opportunism.

Jharkhand, Goa and Assam have had their morality violated over the last 3 years despite voting to punish non-performing governments.

With all the exit polls pointing to a NDA sweep in Jharkhand it is but a matter of time before the myopic opportunism that gets passed of as “upholding secularism” is repudiated once again by an angry electorate that will brook no more  violations of the morality of their electoral preferences.

With 24 hours to go we are once again witnessing this myopic opportunism practised by the Congress, Communists and others of its ilk rearing its head under the guise of keeping out the BJP at all costs.

This myopic opportunism is being actively fanned by a complicit Delhi based media which continues to conduct itself in a moral vaccum.

So morally bankrupt are these media spinmeisters that they see no immorality in suggesting that an AIADMK even if it sweeps Tamil Nadu on anti-UPA plank should embrace the Congress just because it suits their political bias.

Let us set aside the realpolitik for a moment to reflect on what this means. Tamil Nadu has had its all time high turnout in a Lok Sabha elections. Tamil voters across the state have showed up to vote incensed over what they percieve as a betrayal of Tamil interests by the DMK and the Congress.

By suggesting that the AIADMK, if it indeed it were to be the beneficiary of this punishment by the voters, should just embrace the party against who the Tamil voter in all likelihood has expressed anger and disgust, the media stands guity of the same violations of the morality of elections that we had witnessed in Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Goa and Assam.

Not only is this myopic opportunism immoral it is also a slap on the face of Indian Democracy for it negates the very purpose of elections. Why hold elections if parties were to violate the morality of those elections to strike opportunistic alliances that are a complete repudiation of the voter’s sentiment.

Let it be very clear to the Congress Party and the rest of the 3rd front campers that any attempts by them to stitch a coalition premised on negativity would come with a heavy political price.

Unless the Congress emerges as the single largest party in this election it would have lost its moral authority to form the next government.  The Congress must desist from attempting to form a government if the BJP emerges as the single largest party. Any attempts by the Congress to stitch a minority government or to prop up a 3rd party government with the sole purpose of keeping the BJP out even if it emerges as the single largest party would be a rank violation of the morality of the election.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

Open Letter to Sudheendra Kulkarni

Dear Shri Kulkarni

We have exchanged many notes in private but I wanted to make this one public on your latest op-ed in the Indian Express titled “From tutu-mainmain to Tu and Main“.

You have rightly framed the issue on the abject lack of bi-partisanship and lack of respect for the opposite point of view in our national political culture to the point where every political exchange has to be necessarily colored with extreme adjectives like “tears into”, “ridicules”, “snubs”, “mocks” and so on.

While one need not delve into history on this subject, the responsibility over the last 5 years for this clearly rests with the Congress Party for not having gone the extra creative mile to create a national consensus on issues like the Indo-US Nuclear Deal.

Be that as it may the 2009 elections mark a significant turn in this culture of political debate when a senior most aide to the most important political leader to one side of the political divide is able to seek the middle ground on issues of national interest in the middle of a bitter political campaign.

Some in the media may color this election season as highly personal and vicious and most in the media may attribute it to the characterization of Dr. Manmohan Singh’s conduct in office.

However this blogger being privy to facts that they are not can say without doubt that Mr. Advani’s Campaign has conducted itself in the most honorable and dignified manner while chosing not to hit below the belt even when opportunities have presented themselves even after one of the worst scandals on the floor of Parliament.

At this time it is anyone’s guess what the ballots will reveal on May 16th but this blogger hopes that no matter what the outcome is on May 16th a beginning can be made on bi-partisanship in New Delhi. You have made the first move and this blogger hopes the Congress reciprocates appropriately over time.

Wishing you all the best and congratulations on a campaign executed honorably with dignity.

regards

An Aam Admi

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

India Elections 2009 – Focus on the Finish Line

With the final 48 hours before the fifth and last phase of polling for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections upon us Offstumped shifts focus to major states West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where politics is conducted beyond the national political faultlines.

The Telegraph has carried a scathing editorial on the culture of political violence in West Bengal that saw an infant killed in the arms of its mother.

The rot in West Bengal has less to do with the violent cadre in the heartland but more to do with the culture of accomodation within the so called intellectual bhadralok of Kolkota and New Delhi who have given the CPI-Mafioso a free pass for the last 5 years for some of the worst acts of violence while the Sonia, Rahul, Manmohan lead Congress looked the other way.

It is amazing that the Delhi based media elite have been debating breathlessly the various permutations and combinations that would see the Congress and Left without giving a single thought to the immoral and unconstitutional excesses that have been the fallout of this opportunistic axis of evil.

The Congress and the Left constitute an evil political alliance and the many muslim victims of Nandigram stand testimony to that inconvenient truth. The Delhi based elite can put all the lipstick they want but this alliance is a Pig and it stinks.

As West Bengal goes to polls it perhaps has little to choose between one culture of political violence over another, but the elite of Kolkota who live in denial would themselves and their state a lot of good with some honest introspection on how they have accorded moral sanction to one of the worst political regimes for over two decades.

The culture of politics in Tamil Nadu is marginally different from West Bengal but for the fact that the voters have been far more unforgiving if not sagacious.

As Tamil Nadu goes to polls one must not forget that while Karunanidhi’s bigotry and Baalu’s nepotism have come to define politics in Tamil Nadu in the last few years, it was Jayalalitha’s arrogance that saw one of the worst abuses of political power on an ancient Hindu Institution with no accountability to date.

West Bengal and Tamil Nadu represent the failure of the BJP and the Congress to offer credible regional alternatives having ceded ground by default to what can unarguably be characterised as the worst Indian Politics has to offer.

As the month long Indian General Elections draws to a close it is with shame and despondency this blogger wraps up the Campaign Season lamenting the rotten state of politics in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

India Elections 2009 Phase 3 & Phase 4 Analysis

The month long election has reached an interesting juncture with the first four phases of voting done with barely over a week to go before the votes are counted.

The turnout figures for phase 4 seem quite encouraging in stark contrast to the less than impressive turnout in phase 3.

West Bengal, where polling was held in 17 constituencies, the voter turnout was “large” (about 75%). In Jammu and Kashmir where the Srinagar constituency went to the polls, there was a low turnout (around 24%), he said.

In J and K the polling this time was better. In 2004 it was 18.57 per cent and in the 1999 Lok Sabha poll it was 11.93 per cent. Separatists had given a poll boycott call in the State.

This phase covered Haryana – for 10 seats, Rajasthan 25, Punjab 4, West Bengal 17, Bihar 3, Jammu and Kashmir 1, Uttar Pradesh 18 and NCT of Delhi 7.

Bihar recorded a turnout of 37 per cent. It was 63 in Haryana, 65 in Punjab, and 50 each in Rajasthan and UP.

With this phase, polling has been completed in 457 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies and an average of about 55.5 voters had cast their votes

Continuing with Offstumped analysis of bellwhether seats there are about 4 seats that are of interest across phases 3 and 4. (click here for analysis of bellwhether seats in Phase 1 and Phase 2)

#1 Banaskantha in Gujarat

#2 Anand in Gujarat

#3 Bulsar in Gujarat

#4 Sikar in Rajashthan

Of these the 3 seats in Gujarat can be considered the most reliable indicators of the BJP’s prospects of forming a government at the Center. The 3 seats in Gujarat voted 5 out of 6 times for the party that either formed the government in Delhi or for a party that supported it. More importantly every single time these seats voted for the BJP a Non-Congress government was formed at the center. If this report is anything to go by the Congress is clearly not fancying its chances in Banaskantha. However the Satta market seems to punt for the Congress in Anand.

Sikar in Rajasthan too got it right 5 out of 6 times and has not voted against the BJP in the last 3 elections. It can be considered a reliable indicator of the anti-Congress sentiment except for 2004.  The big unknown this year in Sikar is the emergence of the CPI-M making it a triangular fight. No data yet on the turnout figures in Sikar, it will be interesting to see if a high turnout is an indicator of red and saffron mobilization.

Two other seats in Delhi which have reliably voted for the party that forms the Government were Delhi Outer and Delhi Sadar both of which have been transformed in the post-delimitation era making seats in Delhi less reliable an indicator of which way the wind is blowing.

Phase 5 has some interesting bellwhether seats in Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and an odd seat in West Bengal.

In retrospect it must be said that we need to come to terms with the reality that Lok Sabha elections are no longer a referendum on national issues but are really about control of the national power structure. End of the day the choice that has to be made by each voter is about which coalition has earned their trust to be vested with that control.

When viewed through the prism of power structures, the post results game of bluff becomes as important as the prepoll agenda. It is clear that no matter what the outcome is on May 16th BJP’s best chances lie in the rather outcome of the game of bluff that will be played between the Congress and the Communists after May 16th.

More on that game of bluff in the next post.

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Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

The Foreign Policy Debate that never was

It must be odd to any external observer that an election campaign in a 21st century economic power should be so bereft of any serious debate on foreign policy vision at a time when two of its major neighbors are facing serious existential crises.

It is a miracle that for a democracy surrounded by hostile borders and neighbours in turmoil on almost all four sides, the Indian economic success story trudges along.

But then if we have aspirations of matching a China if not outpacing it, isnt it time to have a serious debate on which national party has the ideas and the acumen to transform these hostile borders ?

Isnt it also time we had a serious debate on which national party has the vision to take us to an era of benign frontiers that boost economic growth rather than be a drag on it with the constant threat of conflict ?

The Manmohan Singh dispensation with its single point focus on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal stands guilty first of antiquated thinking in its first 2 years in office with Natwar Singh as foreign minister and then delinquency with Manmohan Singh not appointing a replacement. By the time Pranab Mukherjee assumed office he was compensating for Manmohan Singh’s lack of political acumen by heading over 50 GoMs and taming an intransigent Left on the Nuclear Deal.

The casualty of this delinquency and lack of focus on Foreign Policy beyond the Nuclear Deal and Af-Pak Fak-Ap, is the diminished Indian Leadership in the sub-continent, the latest being the Sri Lankan crisis.

The BJP’s formulation of Muscular Diplomacy hasnt quite answered the fundamental question this blogger has posed on our hostile borders. Muscular Diplomacy at best can be a tactical option amongst many that could be pursued to achieve an end goal.

The larger question for the BJP’ is what is its strategic vision on the foreign policy front to create a benign conflict-free neighborhood that boosts our economic growth.

Can we have debate on this please, even at this late hour ?

A reproduction of Offstumped post on SAARC from April 2007 follows.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has opened its annual summit in New Delhi. This was the 14th summit since its inception. The two-day SAARC Summit, attended by leaders from eight countries including the latest entrant Afghanistan, agreed to take “every possible measure” to stop financing of terror acts and counter trafficking of narcotics and illicit arms. The eight-page Declaration took note of India’s initiative for a SAARC Convention on Mutual Assistance in Criminal matters to effectively combat terrorism and organised crime. Terming the Declaration as “comprehensive and forward-looking”, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said it gave SAARC a wider mandate to promote peace and development in the region, including through greater connectivity in trade, movement of people and through the flow of ideas. The document was adopted by the leaders from Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bangladesh and Bhutan.

In a stinging analysis of the SAARC bonhomie, FT’s South Asia bureau chief Jo Johnson called the summit lacklustre and said India still has much to learn from China’s deft economic diplomacy. His argument

While Beijing has sought to create interdependencies with its rivals, in support of its stated ambitions for a “peaceful rise”, New Delhi appears complacent about the fact that it presides over the least economically integrated region in the world

Offstumped takes a hard look at SAARC and the sorry state of affairs in our neighbourhood.

“hughty, foolishly vain, self-conceited and stolid” was how one translation of Al-Beruni’s observations on India puts it. Perceptions of Indiahave come a long way since but not so in our immideate neighbourhood. Jo Johnson puts it glibly – Good fences make good neighbours, but India has taken the saying too literally. What is it about us and our neighbourhood that makes regional co-operation so challenging ?

Offstumped’s hypothesis is that we are an angry neighbourhood and therein lies the challenge.

The net aggregate anger across the countries that make up any neighbourhood should be a good measure of neighbourly bonhomie or lack of.

Let us take the NAFTA region as an example – politics in the U.S. is generally marked by an apathetic and ignorant majority influenced by a highly motivated and angry minority. Given the high opportunity costs of sustaining public anger, the micro-minority’s contribution to the aggregate anger is small if not insignificant. One can see this anger manifest itself in the ongoing Immigration debate and tighter borders but not serious enough to really derail cross border free trade. The region has definitely transformed from the pre-9/11 days of benign borders to the present times of a vigilant Homeland Security and vigilante Minutemen, but economic integration and free trade continues to flourish albeit some hiccups.

Across the pond, the net aggregate anger in the European Union saw itself manifest in strong resistance to EU Constitution vote sometime back and immigrant unfriendly legislations in recent times. Fears of the Polish Plumber and Indian Steelman on the one hand and Muslim Immigrant anger on the other saw hurdles to greater economic integration but was not significant enough to derail or rollback current levels of economic integration.

Coming to our own neighbourhood the net aggregate anger is assuming “cardiac arrest proportions” and a regional meltdown should not be ruled out. Starting with anger across rural Nepal fanned by the Maoists to the anger in the streets of Bangladesh fanned by a mismanaged democracy and irrepresible Islamic demagogues, sub-continental anger has been at a high. With the Lankan crisis escalating with recent air strikes by LTTE and the fluidity in Pakistan on account of anti-Musharraf turmoil, India not only suffers volatile borders but also very angry neighbors dwelling across those borders.

That brings us to the topic at hand on SAARC. With all this anger it is no surprise SAARC continues to be a dysfunctional showpiece of South Asian co-operation. When the Lankan crisis was brewing last August, Offstumped had called for a full time foreign minister in the Manmohan Singh Government to don the mantle of South Asian Leadership. Many months later when in October Manmohan Singh had finally appointed Pranab Mukherjee as the foreign minister Offstumped had pointed out why his appointment was nothing to celebrate.

Offstumped Bottomline: The FT’s Jo Johnson makes an important observation when he contrasts India’s lacklustre foreign policy leadership with deal making China. Manmohan Singh’s foreign policy flourishes have been limited to the yet to materialize Indo-US Nuke Deal and the Havana self-goal in the Joint Terrorism Mechanism with Pakistan. Apart from empty rhetoric of foreign policy independence manifested in the “all talk no action” Iran Pipeline project the UPA Government has failed miserably on the foreign policy front.

South Asia needs an urgent dose of Anger Management, who better than peace loving India to deliver it, if only our Foreign Minister showed more dynamism and leadership.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Rajasthan Polls 2008, War on Mumbai, War on Terror, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

India Elections 2009 Phase 2 – Analysis

With the second phase of polling for the Lok Sabha ending today, the PTI estimated over 55% turnout across the 12 states and 200 million voters eligible to vote. Of particular interest is the high turnout in the parts of Andhra that went to polls this phase with over 68% turnout reported, nearly 62%  in Orissa.

It was also amusing to note Priyanka Vadra’s rationalization of the tepid turnout in Amethi which apparently registered barely 40% turnout, so much so for enthusiasm.

As in the first phase Offstumped is not making any seat wise predictions. However Chakresh Mishra over at the Promise of Reason has been doing some crystal ball gazing, his predictions after the first phase giving NDA 212 and UPA 175 can be found here.

This analysis is focused on bellwhether seats that went to polls today.

There are eight bellwhether seats in the second phase

#1 Dumka in Jharkhand

#2 Rajmahal in Jharkhand

#3 Godda in Jharkhand

#4 Giridih in Jharkhand

#5 Jamshedpur in Jharkhand

#6 Balasore in Orissa

#7 Mayurbhanj in Orissa

#8 Ahmednagar in Maharashtra

#9 Nandyal in Andhra

#1 Dumka in Jharkhand

Dumka in Jharkhand is unique in one of 3 seats across India that has got the outcome of every election right in the last 6 elections.  The 4 times it has voted for the JMM it has been a part of the government in New Delhi. THE 2 odd times it has voted for the BJP in 1998 and 1999 the BJP formed the government in New Delhi.

Its ailing JMM Chief’ Shibu Soren’s pocket stronghold and had a low turnout of 42% as well has witnessed some voter boycott incidents. Historically Dumka has had much higher voter turnouts especially in the years when Babulal Marandi won from here. With Shibu Soren playing a victim its anybody’s guess which way this reliable bellwhether seat will lean. A BJP victory should be a strong sign of the diminishing fortunes of the 3rd front.

#2 Rajmahal in Jharkhand

Rajmahal unlike Dumka has been a bellwhether seat 5 out of 6 times except for 1999 when it voted for the Congress. No data yet on the turnout in Raj Mahal today. The RJD is tipped to be a favorite from this seat fielding a congress rebel. With all three UPA allies Congress, JMM, RJD and a renegade JMM splinter group fighting this seat it will be interesting to see if Raj Mahal remains a bellwhether or if 2009 is the year it falls off the bellwhether chart.

#3 Godda in Jharkhand

Godda has been a bellwhether 5 out of 6 times but for reasons different from Raj Mahal voting for the BJP in 1989, 1996, 1998 and 1999 while voting for the Congress and JMM in 2004 and 1991. Historically it has had high turnout in the 60s. While today’s turnout data is yet to trickle in the contest has been interesting family drama between Shibu Soren and his son rebelling against the Congress candidate. Rahul Gandhi has campaigned here as has Rajnath Singh who had a massive rally on 16th April here.  A BJP victory here would be strong indicator of the challenges faced by the UPA/3rd front constituents.

#4 & 5 Jamshedpur, Giridhih  in Jharkhand

A former JMM stronghold leaned BJP thrice between 1996 and 1999 before returning to JMM in 2004. With a 5 out of 6 track record this seat in all likelihood will return to the BJP with Arjun Munda contesting here.

With Giridih, Jamshedpur like the other bellwhether seats in Jharkhand it seems clear that a sweep by BJP in Jharkhand is a strong indicator of  the likelihood NDA government while a JMM sweep is a good indicator of either a Congress or a 3rd front government.

#6 Balasore in Orissa

Balasore once again has been a bellwhether 5 out of 6 times except for 2004 when it voted for the BJP. Historically turnout has been high in this seat with 70% in 2004. Early reports indicate a much lower turnout today of about 55%. With popular BJP leader Kharbela Swain contesting from here a BJP loss from this seat will portend ominously for that party.

#7 Mayurbhanj in Orissa

Mayurbhanj is the other unique seat that distinguishes itself like Dumka having been a bellwhether in all 6 elections. It picked the JD in 1989, the Congress in 91 and 96, BJP in 98 and 99 while picking the JMM in 2004. For a seat that shifted its choice which ever way the electoral wind blows, Mayurbhanj ought to be considered a reliable indicator of the likelihood of a Congress/3rd front government. JMM is tipped to be the favorite in this seat with Naveen Patnaik’s BJD extending support to it.  It had a turnout of over 60%. In 2004 the BJP lost this seat by a cliffhanger despite a high turnout of 70%. All bets are off on this one, a JMM loss to the Congress might not mean much but a BJP win would be an upset to the 3rd front’s fortunes.

#8 Nandyal in Andhra

Nandyal has become infamous for hosting a rally in which Y.S. Rajashekhar Reddy made his controversial remarks on Telangana after the close of polls in the first phase.

The importance of Nandyal as a bellwhether must be appreciated thus.

Every single time it has not voted for the Congress, the Congress has neither formed the Government in Delhi nor was it able to prop up a 3rd front government.

In that sense Nandyal is a very reliable indicator of the Congress’ fortunes in Delhi. The PRP which has fielded a former TDP man is tipped as the favorite in this seat. Pay close attention to the outcome for a leading indicator on how the Congress performs in Andhra.

#9 Ahmednagar in Maharashtra

Ahmednagar like Nandyal is once again a very reliable indicator of the likelihood of a Congress government in Delhi. Every single time it has voted for the BJP or Shiv Sena there has been a NDA Government in the center and every single time it has voted for the Congress or the NCP there has been either a Congress or a 3rd front government propped up by the Congress except for 1989. The NCP is facing troubles here with two rebel candidates.  That should be a reliable indicator of which way this bellwhether is leaning.

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Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

Dissecting the BJP’s Infrastructure Vision

BJP Leader and NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate L.K. Advani today released the BJP’s Infrastructure Vision Document in Bangalore.

The Vision document begins with a scathing indictment on the Congress Party and Manmohan Singh’s UPA Government for having done little on the Infrastructure front in the last 5 years.

#1 It is interesting that it makes this argument by drawing a comparision with China on extent of 4 lane national highways, rate of expansion of Rail Networks.

#2 Another interesting statistic is the number of days it takes the Ports to clear cargo with a comparison to Singapore

#3 Rate of expansion of Power Generation Capacity again gets compared with China, as is the penetration of broadband

#4 A damning statistic is on Road Safety and the comparison with China on average road speeds

#5 More comparison with China on healthcare infrastructure, water supply etc..

The key message the BJP seems to be driving at is that despite being on par in 1980 China has surged ahead on infrastructure development.

So what solutions is the BJP proposing ?

Before we get to that the Vision Document dwells further on the UPA’s delinquency with a detailed run down of the delays in the National Highway Development Project.

Then we come to the crux of the BJP’s proposition which begins with a fairly powerful message

Freeing Infrastructure Development from Poor Governance

The BJP proposes to do so on two counts

#1 Improving the efficiency of Public Delivery of Infrastructure Projects

#2 Boosting Private Implementation of Infrastructure Projects

Some key improvements proposed include

#1 A Center State committee for speedy clearance of national projects. It is unclear though how this committee will be “empowered”.

#2 Autonomy to project specific Public Sector entities like Delhi Metro with the freedom to access Capital Markets and hire professional talent.

#3 Another idea that stands out is combining projects to create an attractive portfolio that can be bid competitively to private entities

#4 Additional promises on simplifying land acquisition for Manufacturing projects with a stake to Farmers in case of agricultural land, but there is a lack of specificity on how exactly Land Acquisition will be simplified. The Gujarat Model does give us some hints though.

#5 Promises Central legislation for Rehabilitation and Resettlement of those affected by projects

The Vision document goes on to list a sampling of what it calls 100 Projects of National Importance that will be prioritized. The sampling covers River Linking, to increasing capacity of Power Generation.

While it still talks of State controlled Franchisees for LPG distribution, there is also a proposal to reform electricity pricing from the current and Tax and Subsidize model.

Another proposal that makes a quiet entry is to reform NREGA in the context of durable rural infrastructure. This is a  fundamental shift in the way NREGA has been viewed so far. In line with the JD-U BJP experiment by Nitish Kumar in Bihar there is merit in looking at NREGA as a vehicle for rural infrastructure development with the goal of stimulating local economy rather than look at it merely as a scheme for doling out wages to the rural poor.

More expansion of the government in the form of the National Infrastructure Facilitation and Monitoring Agency makes an appearnce. The NIFMA is proposed to report to the Prime Minister and speed up the implementation of the top 100 infrastructure projects.

Many tall promises find place in the section on Urban Infrastructure Development with a 4 tier approach starting with the top cities down to the District and Tehsil Headquarters.

But the fundamental shift that Offstumped has been calling for since a long time makes its appearance on Page 18 with this promise

The NDA will remove this shortcoming by devolving real powers from state capitals to urban municipal bodies. To start with, we shall promulgate another constitutional amendment to truly empower the third-tier of governance by compulsorily creating an effective and elected mayor-in-council system for all cities and an effective and elected Zilla Panchayat president—both of whom will have direct control

 

and supervision of all Government officials and agencies responsible for their cities and districts.

This is has been long overdue and Offstumped intends to hold the BJP to this promise.

In closing the BJP’s Infrastructure Vision is bold and expansive at the same time. In addition to the ambition it would be useful to also understand how the BJP intends to eliminate redundancy and streamline the apparatus of the State to achieve these goals. But the most critical aspect of the Vision is promise to devolve of power to the Local Governments at the Municipal and Panchayat level with direct accountability to elected Mayors and Panchayats.

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Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

The Gujarat Model

My esteemed colleague on INI Dr. V Ananth Nageshwaran in this blog post on India Banao poses this question on BJP Leader Narendra Modi’s Gujarat Model

I think on the economic management of Gujarat, it will be useful to argue on the basis of some facts. Opinions have been based on emotions and hence polarized. I will be useful to know what exactly Mr. Narendra Modi’s (NM) government has done to improve governance, lessen corruption.

It will also be useful to know how much of it is due to institutional reforms and how much of it is driven by his personality with concentration of decision-making authority. If it is the latter, then some one else coming after him can exploit it for further personal and narrow interests, even if the concentration of power in his hands or in the CM’s office was for altruistic reasons and ends.

Dr. VAN’s questions come in response to this op-ed by Dr. Pratap Mehta in the Indian Express which also saw this exchange between Offstumped and Dr. Mehta.

Dr. Mehta’s complaint of a lack of ideological basis for the Gujarat Model is lame in a post global meltdown era where strict ideological labels of Capitalism and Socialism have lost their meaning.

It is important however to have an open public debate on Narendra Modi’s Gujarat Model on the other questions raised by Dr. VAN.

So how must we judge the Gujarat Model for its Replicability, and Institutionalization of  Change  ?

Dr. Manmohan Singh recently said the proof of the pudding is in eating it, so here goes.

ON 13th March 2006 Geeta Pandey of the BBC had this story on Surat being voted the cleanest city in India ahead of Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore.

The story stands out for its complete silence on any mention of Narendra Modi or his BJP Government in Gandhinagar. 

For someone who has been accused of excessive centralisation of power in his hands, there could not have been a better tribute than this that the entire credit for local governance in one of Gujarat’s most prominent city is to the local government.

Some may say a one off example of Surat is no proof of Institutionalized Change. 

Well then there was this famous report by Bibek Debroy on economic freedom in different states of India released in 2005 that saw him having to resign from a Nehru-Gandhi affiliated organization.  The indices used in this report are interesting for they are not measuring swift decision making by the Chief Minister but they are actually measuring the effectiveness of Justice Delivery by the Courts, the degree of Regulation by the Government and the Size of Government.

Let us dig further this time in to 2006 when an incident of demolition of unauthorized structures by the local government of the City of Vadodara made national headlines for all the wrong reasons. The facts surrounding this 2006 incident are important for they highlight the degree of autonomy to Local Government and the investment made by the Local Government in question here the Vadodara Municipal Corporation, VMC.

In fact the most shameful aspect of this incident in 2006 was the Union Government in violation of all norms of Federalism moving the Supreme Court to interfere with the affairs of a Local Government in a City in utter disregard of the local needs of the Citizens of Vadodara.

So much so for accusations of Centralization of Power and Authoritarianism.

Recently Dr. VAN himself was interviewed by Bloomberg on the abysmal state of Sanitation in India. The project charter  for Nirmal Gujarat is a must read for the clear dileneation of roles between a department that is charged with the Mission to champion change and the responsibilities of the various arms of Government to embrace change.

The proof of pudding once again is in eating it. Beyond the Nirmal Gujarat website a simple google search throws up individual district panchayat websites like this one from Patan listing out work done under Nirmal Gujarat to achieve the sanitation goals.

Institutional Change anyone ?

While some insinuations made on how land was acquired for the Nano Project do the rounds in the Gujarat High Court, the reality is Acquisition of Land for Non Agricultural purposes was simplified well before the Nano came into the picture. This story from July 2007 explains how decision making was simplified and delgated to District Collectors. The process was further simplified in 2008. To put these reforms into perspective refer to this report on Gujarat from 2002 by IIM Ahmedabad.

One can go on other areas, the intention of this Offstumped post is to not reduce this to a Vibrant Gujarat commercial but provoke this fundamental question.

Do we want to tolerate weak Executives that are at the mercy of fragmented Legislatures and make them an excuse for a slaw and tardy process of change ?

OR

Do we want to democratically elect a Strong Executive that functions within the ambit of Constitution with a missionary zeal and a visionary toughness to deliver results ?

Barkha Dutt writing today in the Hindustan Times exemplifies the juvenile manner in which Narendra Modi’s Gujarat Model has been evaluated, by reducing it to a debate on style over substance and emotions over actions.

The so called Progressive Liberals primary problem with Narendra Modi is not that he has subverted democracy or is operating outside the ambit of the Indian Constitution. Their core problem is he is in their face with his political incorrectness and they dont feel one bit good about it.

The cold reality however for these so called Progressive Liberals in the years to come is that, there is a large part of India which doesnt care much about what makes them feel good.  This India wants results and Narendra Modi has demonstrated how a democratically elected Strong Executive operating within the ambit of the Constitution can deliver results.

In that sense Narendra Modi’s performance  is no different from a United States Governor who can leverage the wide Executive Privilege available to them constitutionally to deliver results. Its a tragedy that India after sixty years of Independence has forgotten that the founding fathers originally intended the Chief Executive in the States to be directly elected like a U.S. Governor.

Coming back to Dr. VAN’s core question on whether Narendra Modi’s Gujarat Model is Instutional and is Replicable, this blogger thinks the answers is an emphatic yes provided we have a Strong Executive in the States that is not at the mercy of a fragmented legislature and is a victim to the vagaries of factional politics.

Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Raman Singh in Chattisgarh and Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh in that sense are no different from Narendra Modi. One has not heard of any of them conducting opinion polls and referendum to make executive decisions.

In fact there are enough anecdotes about the progressive liberals new found poster boy Nitish Kumar’s direct interventions from villages on the performance of low level bureaucrats to raise questions on centralization of power. The real difference in the progressive liberals attitude towards Narendra Modi over Nitish Kumar is on account of the “feel good factor”.

In closing it must be said that Narendra Modi is under no obligation to make the Delhi based progressive liberal intellectual elite feel good about him.

Those intellectual elite sitting in Delhi who have the arrogance to describe a democratically elected Strong Executive operating within the ambit of the Constitution as Authoritarian must do something about their Queen’s English.

Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat

India Elections 2009 Phase 1 – Analysis

The first phase of voting for the Lok Sabha has come to an end covering  17 States and union territories in 124 constituencies with 143 million of India’s 714 million voters eligible to exercise their franchise.

IANS had this early report on the voter turnout

In Andhra Pradesh, once a Maoist bastion, there was 60-65 per cent voter turnout, 65 per cent in the three parliamentary constituencies of Assam and 60-70 per cent in Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh, also in the northeast. Manipur was lower at 40 to 50 per cent.

In violence-hit Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, about 50 per cent of the voters turned to cast their franchise.

Long queues were seen outside booths in Kerala with officials estimating that the turnout would be about 60 per cent. It was highest in Ernakulam with 67.5 per cent and surprisingly low in Thiruvananthapuram, where the Congress fielded star debutant, former UN under-secretary general Shashi Tharoor, with 45.4 per cent.

Unlike in recent elections Offstumped is not carrying detailed seat by seat predictions on account of the fact that this is the first national election after delimitation and also on account of the fact that this election will also a large number of first time voters participating.

However an examination of the Lok Sabha seats that went to polls in this phase is useful to determine if any of them are bellwhether seats that have always voted in a manner that is in line with who forms the government at the center.

Regular Offstumped Reader Gaelo Rhinus has done some excellent analysis crunching the numbers across the last six Lok Sabha elections between 1989 when the monopoly of the Congress party on national politics ended to 2004 when the Congress for the first time in its history formed a coalition government.

Over the rest of the election season Offstumped will carry an analysis of these bellwhether seats to see if we can detect any leading indicators on the final outcome.

Of the 124 Lok Sabha seats that went polls today, based on Gaelo Rhinus’ number crunching the following seats can be called bellwhether seats.

#1 Mahasamund in Chattisgarh

#2 Aska in Orissa

#3 Bolangir in Orissa

#4 Sambalpur in Orissa

#5 Sundargarh in Orissa

#6 Mahabubnagar in Andhra

#7 Peddapalle in Andhra

#1 Mahasamund

Mahasamund was a bellwhether seat 5 out of 6 times in the last six elections.

It reliably voted for Janata Dal in 1989 and for the Congress 1991 and 2004. It also voted against the BJP in 1996 and with the BJP in 1998. 

The only year where it voted for a party that neither formed the Government nor had a stake in the government through outside support was in 1999 when it voted for the Congress.

This year early reports suggest 51% voter turnout in Mahasamund. Mr. Advani had a rally in Mahasamund on the last day of campaigning. Rahul Gandhi campaigned in Mahasamund as well on April 11th. Ajit Jogi won from here last time but its an unreserved seat this time with two OBC leaders battling it out. 

The final outcome may well depend on the turnout here which traditionally has been the 60s.  The early estimate of low turnout of 51% does not augur well for the BJP.

#2 Aska

Aska once again has been a bellwhether seat 5 out 6 times. It reliably voted for Janata Dal in 1989 and 1996 when the National Front and United Front governments were formed. It also voted for the Congress in 1991 and for the NDA in 1998 and 1999. The only year it missed voting for a party that was part of the central government was in 2004.

No data yet on turnout in Aska but for some reports of long queues of women lining up to vote.

The BJD has fielded a defector from the CPI in this seat while the Congress has fielded a veteran recluse who only recently returned to active politics. The BJP has fielded a debutant Shanti Devi, wife of a former royal.

Which ever way Aska votes this time, it definitely will not be bellwhether to the BJP’s prospects of forming the government unless Naveen Patnaik returns the NDA fold after the elections.

#3 Bolangir

Bolangir like the rest got it right 5 out of 6 times. It too got it wrong in 2004. But unlike Aska which has been a BJD bastion, Bolangir has been a BJP bastion which makes it interesting for this analysis.

No data yet on voter turnout in Bolangir, its the largest constituency in Orissa in the first phase with 14 lakh voters. The battle is between two former royals marking the BJD-BJP split. Rahul Gandhi has campaigned in Bolangir after staying overnight and giving his security the slip. 

The margin of victory for the BJP has narrowed over the years in this seat. If the BJD cuts into the BJP vote by around 7% this seat is a cliffhanger.

#4 Sambalpur

Sambalpur too go it wrong in 2004 like Aska and Bolangir. With a poor voter turnout in a Maoist infested area, Sambalpur looks like a BJD Congress fight and whichever way it votes will likely be an indicator of a 3rd front or Congress government to come. A possible surprise could be the Hindu vote mobilisation in urban areas of Sambalpur on account of restrictions on a local religious function following onthe impact of Narendra Modi’s campaign rally in Sambalpur.

#5 Sundargarh

Sundargarh like Bolangir became a BJP bastion to get it wrong only in 2004 while being a bellwhether in other 5 elections. It bore the brunt of Maoist violence on a few polling stations today.

The BJP candidate Joel Oram has been in the news over the years for taking on Naveen Patnaik on a host of issues. With resentment brewing on the issue of Mining at Khandadhar (not Kandahar) it would be interesting to see if the BJP can retain this seats. If this report is anything to go by it may just be smooth sailing for the BJP.

#6 Mahabubnagar

Mahabubnagar in Andhra is perhaps the second most reliable indicator of the Congress’ prospects of forming the Government in New Delhi. It has one of the largest BPL population in Andhra and not a very great track record of implementing NREGS.

Whenever Mahabubnagar has voted for the Congress it has either formed the government at the center or like in 1996 had a stake in the government. The lone exception being 1989.

It reported some incidents of violence and damage to EVMs today.

TRS Chief and the chief protagonist for the Telangana cause K. Chandrashekhar Rao, KCR, contesting from here with reports suggesting he has a tough fight.

If Mahabubnagar votes against the Congress this time the likelihood of Manmohan Singh returning as Prime Minister is almost zero.

#7 Peddapalle

Peddapalle like Mahabubnagar should rank as the second most reliable indicator of the likelihood of  a Congress government in the center. Everytime it has voted for the Congress we have had a Congress government  or a government propped up by the Congress but for 1989.  Early reports indicate a very poor voter turnout in Peddapalle.  Congress veteran G. Venkataswamy has given the seat to his son Vivekananda. Despite his exhortations the Congress leadership has been reluctant to endorse the Telangana cause with Rahul Gandhi refusing to bring it up at a recent campaign event.

Remains if Telangana comes back to bite the Congress in Peddapalle. A Congress loss here is a strong indicator of the dimming prospects for Manmohan Singh in New Delhi.

More analysis on bellwhether seats to come in subsequent phases. In the meantime here is an Offstumped teaser on any bellwhether seats that got all 6 elections right between 1989 and 2004.

Originally posted here

Filed under: Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009