If there is one trend that has been consistent since the 2004 Lok Sabha elections in state election after state election, the voters of India have demonstrated tremendous sagacity in delivering verdicts enabling stable governments.
The big question in 2009 was will the Indian Voter at the pan-India level make a sagacious choice towards a stable government.
The answer is out with an emphatic yes.
The voters have rejected opportunistic pressure groups while voting positively for the national party of their choice by an large across India.
It may have come as a personal disappointment to this blogger that the choice they made was in favor of the Congress but there in lies many a lesson that needs to be paid attention to.
But before doing so it would be dishonest if this blogger did not personally compliment Mr. Rahul Gandhi for having made a difference to his party’s revival in the Uttar Pradesh and a job well done.
The nation has made a decisive turn Left of Center on socio-economic issues, the prospect of a Manmohan Singh unencumbered by an arrogant Left notwithstanding.
There are many lessons for the BJP here.
1. Nation is Center Left on socio economic issues and entitlements Nehru Gandhis credibility on entitlements is BJP’s biggest challenge next 5 yrs in states where it does not have strong regional leaders
2. BJP’s maxing out in its strongholds is second biggest challenge for unless it breaks dramatic new ground, attrition in next cycle in strongholds will further hurt
3. Strategy for BJP next 5 years has to be to go local in Andhra, Kerala, TN, WB to occupy the space of political opposition, UP seems distant given current 4th place status
4. Riots have consequences we can no longer be in denial on VHP’s conduct. There has to be accountability for the rot in Orissa.
5. If Uttar Pradesh can still gift 20 each seats to BSP, SP and Congress it points to how uninspiring the BJP’s UP Leadership is. It is time for state leadership overhaul, and the need of the hour is for an Obama like inspiring leadership with no baggage and lots of credibility to counter Rahul Gandhi who will loom large on Uttar Pradesh.
6. Unless BJP breaks ground at the pan India level the central government could be lost to it for another generation there in lies the biggest risk in not focusing on a Pan India strategy with an emphasis on going local in new states
7. Sooner the BJP adopts inner party democracy of the variety Rahul Gandhi is experimenting with to bring new support base especially in states where it needs to break ground.8. Friends of BJP is a good start to engage the Cosmopolitan Urban voterthis should have started immideately after 2004 debacle it is many years late.
9. At the national level the BJP needs decisive central leadership that can act on all this with a sense of mission and vision. The BJP must not make the same mistake of choosing a stop gap compromise leader to postpone tough decisions.
10. Last but not the least, it would be in complete denial if it did not ask tough questions of how Acts of Adharma in the name of Hindutva have been condoned and the relevance of Hindutva as an ideology to guide on Socio-Economic issues.
At the time of going to press it appears that the RSS and the BJP have gotten into a diagnostic mode, this blogger hopes they pay attention to these feedback points.
In the days to come Offstumped shall put its partisanship on trial and seek feedback on the role Offstumped must play in the days to come.
A big thanks to everyone for joining this journey.
Filed under: DesiPundit, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
AND “MAMATA” is most unpredictable.
moment this govt start loosinf confidence SHE will dump this govt.
her aim is not RAILWAY MINISTER but CHIEF MINISTER.
SO LET THE GAME BEGIN,BUT BJP NEEDS TO STRENTHEN THEIR ORGANISATION IN THIS PERIOD.
OIL COMPANY are bleeding and NO reserve.
manmohan will raise oil price
LEFT WILL TAKE STREET IN BENGAL
MAMATA WILL PANIC AND PRESUURISE GOVT NOT TO INCREASE PRICE.
ANOTHER issue:
NUCLEAR DEAL
I remember many nationalist blamed BJP for opposing that deal.
Fact is that deal is Farce and now MMS is PM again so let us See how NUCLEAR DEAL going to change our life during this Govt period.
MMS has also promised to bring BLACK MONEY so lets see if he is really A HONEST PM as MEDIA says.
Posting from Bharat-rakshak:
It is quite clear that all regional parties will sooner or later realize the mortal threat INC revival poses to them. All their vote banks and constituencies stand imperiled.
And its quite clear that the BJP as it stands now is past its best.
So maybe it is time to set in motion a re-engineering of the revolution.
Moi humble proposal – since 99% ideas flunk the screening stage anyway, WTH – is that:
1. BJP dissolve itself as a party and recreate a new party organization – new name, new articles of association, new charter.
2. Invite the regional satraps – the Jayas, balasahebs, Akalis and Naidus to formally join in as equals in a merger. The new charter can reflect their individual concerns and the common ground between them all.
Question isn’t “Why will they join?” Question now is “Why won’t they?”
3. Call the new organization The New Swatantrata Party or something.
The Right in India needs its own Barry Goldwater – staunch supporter of fiscal conservatism and libertarian respect to individual rights.
Do I have any hope in heaven this proposal will go anywhere? Of course not, but hey, ideation is important. Some new idea somewhere holds the key to our second Renaissance, perhaps.
@Prashant,
Same way I thought 5 years back. Sonia should have become the PM. People should have realized that they are ruled by foreigner. She would be responsible for all the terror activities. We lost that opportunity.
inc votes share in UP -18.25
bjp -17.50
looks like inc won in few seats were they can influence big way
@ Prashant.
Media has influence among educated class, how much ever we deny it.
Why did BJP lose Mumbai?
Why did Congress sweep Delhi?
In Bangalore too people choose to be blind to speedy development happening right in front of their eyes, and voted for Congress in many areas that were BJP
Bangalore was won by BJP in slums and hardcore BJP bastions.
I was looking at vote spread for AK, Bangalore South and was shocked to see areas like Jayanagar go Congress way. These are solid middle class areas with mixed population, and had voted in BJP MlAs last time.
They didn’t vote for Byre Gowda, there is no way he could have connected with them, rather the vote was against BJP.
AK’s backing was reduced this time to areas with Hardcore BJP voters, who have vote for BJP come hell or high water. And another slum, where BJP used dirty tactics.
For people who quote Karnataka as a example, please remember, Kannada channels had pro-BJP tilt. Vijaya Karnataka, one of the largest circulating Kannada dailies, was started by BJP MP, and prints F. Gautier with direct translation.
If those Kannada channels had changed sides, BJP would have been in some trouble
BJP needs to review its conduct of its policies.
My father, who had been a lifelong BJP/Jana Sangh supporter, voted for the Congress for the first time in his life in this election primarily due to BJP’s opportunistic opposition to the US nuclear deal .
BJP also has to look into into the violence by the VHP/Bajrang Dal.
@drum
Foreign Issue
Terror issue
price rise
nuclear deal
are urban india issue BUT then they never vote.
In rural India issue is Land,roji-roti, protection from local muscleman and these rural india votes.
Rural India more concerned on Local Mafia and not concerned of ISI terrorist.
SO WE NEED TO ADDRESS SEPERATELY AND WORK ACCORDINGLY.
Ajay,
Mumbai, Pune, Nashik lost because of low turn out and MNS.
I am telling you guys, elections were lost due to local factors. I don’t see any reason beyond this one.
@AJAY
I AM NOT DENYING THE MEDIA INFLUENCE.
MY POINT IS SPEND/CONCENTRATE ON ORGANISATION AND MAKE EACH OFFICE OF BJP AS “MEDIA HOUSE”
INSTEAD OF STARTING CHANNEL manage Media with ….esp local media
see in gujarat MODI managed local media
DONT MAKE BURKHA/SURDESAI great by saying they CAN influence voters
dont u remember how Akali Dal leader managed favourable opinion poll in 1 crore??.
Mangalore has been quoted as a example of media’s irrelevance.
Most people here don’t know that Mangalore has a RSS cadre in every street since decades. Besides, people of Mangalore and VHP/RSS cadre made it a prestige issue, and made sure every BJP vote was cast.
Mangalore loose-pub incident was made into a Mangalore vs Media issue.
BJP gave ticket to a unknown RSS worker, energizing entire Hindutva Cadre in Mangalore.
The difference between Suresh Kalmadi and Anil Shirole of BJP is just 20,000 votes. You know how much MNS got….85,000 votes. Also voter turn out was just 41% in Pune.
@drum
agree with you.
local factor is the ONLY reason.
that is why i am suggesting that BJP concentrate on each constituency locally by strethening them.
Here i think GVLN role is important.
EACH MP /MLA will have to perform or you loose that seat.
Discounting conspriacy theories however, it is clear that there was an undercurrent in favour of Congress.
Having got over the shock of the results and having reconciled myself to five years of CON party rule, I have a few random thoughts, which i thought I can post.
1. The BJP will take some time to recover from this shock. I foresee very tough time for the BJP in the next few years. The Con party will try its level best to destroy the BJP if it can. add to it, infighting within BJP and questions of succession and confusion over ideological positioning makes it a perfect recipe for disaster- unless the BJP gets its act together, the BJP may even split(may not be a bad thing in the long run) or atrophy from within( in which case there is no hope of saving India from the CON party ).
2. On a postive note, given the large mandate,I expect the UPA to do better on economic and security(atleast on the terrorism front, though it will very likely continue to Ignore the Naxalite/Maoist threat) fronts.
If it fails to do better however, it is likely to face a massive rout next time around in 2014.
Either ways, it makes tactical sense for the BJP to position itself on the centre-right rather than the far-right.
3. That ofcourse does not mean that the CON govt will not indulge in minority appeasement( which may be more subtle and less blatant), not pursue the Macaulites agenda etc, not turn a blind eye towards evangelism etc .It will ofcourse do all this. To expose this, the BJP and the broader sangh needs to develop a robust intellectual traition rather than merely pointing out instances or indulging in sloganeering.
4. In addition to that, the RSS should strengthen its grassroots work(like it has already done in tribal areas) and social work. It should expand its geographical base, particularly into the south. However the RSS should not directly interefere in the political activties of the BJP. I would like an active demarcation between the BJP and the RSS and for the BJP organization to be distinct from the RSS. The RSS should concentrate itself on the socio-cultural space while the BJP should take care of the political space. If possible, clear lines of demarcation need to be brought in between the RSS and VHP/Bajrang dal too.
5. I have no clear idea as to who should succeed in the BJP. I would prefer Namo/Jaitley. since neither are currently in the Lok Sabha, I would prefer Murli manohar Joshi as Leader of Opp till one of the two formally take over the party reins. rajnath singh is rumoured in the media to be among those in line for the leader of opp post. That would be nothing short of disaster.
Also, as far as Modi goes, one thing which he may need to cut out in his future speeches is references to gujarat and comapring very state with Gujarat. This may not work well in a country where regional sentiments run high. This is not to say he should not celebrate Gujarat’s success story or downplay his achievement in gujarat, he just needs to be a little more tactful in his statements to reflect he is becoming an-All India leader.
6. The BJp should make it clear that it is not against minorites per se. (Justice for all, appeasment of none should continue to be its agenda). It may need to start a dialogue esp with Muslims to explain its agenda and remove misconceptions.
7. The BJP must simply expand its organization to all parts of the country. I posted this a few months back itself- unless the BJP makes headway in atleast two of the four states of T.N, A.P, W.B, kerala, it will continue to start every LS election with a 100 seat disadvantage. Of this, Kerala and W.B seem out of the question in the near future. The best bet to make a headway is A.P.
8. The process of strenegthening organization and cadre base must be a five year process and not start just before the elections. Advani’s yatras in early 90′s,97 were in many ways responsible for propelling the BJP to power. None of this was however just before the elections.
@ajay
u got that
ENERGISE YOUR LOCAL VOLUNTEERS
MOTIVATE THEM
BELIEVE ME THEY WILL THRASH THESE MEDIA
ANOTHER EXAMPLE IS VARUN GANDHI
WITH 30% MUSLIM VOTE HE JUST MOTIVATED LOCAL VOLUNTEERS AND THAT MADE VARUN TO WON BY MORE THAN 2 LACS VOTE.
@NIK
ur father voted for MMS for Nuclear deal
So lets HOPE he gets the Benefit of Nuclear deal in this govt HEADED by MMS.
Prashanth,
There also has to be a performance review meet. Otherwise the new candidate at end of 5 years will have lot of consti level anti incumbency. this can be reduced by local performance and effective complaints mechanism for each consti in the forum.
This system will also help achieve consti level pro incumbency and that will also help win narrow wins when tide is against.
Was looking at TN figures. The newly launches gounder caste party has polled more than lakh votes in coimbatore regions- 4 seats.
bjp has just polled 30000-40000 votes despite modi coming in.
this last minute will not work.
Modi has to now start padayatra. new state presidents of zero level-TN,AP,UP,WB,Orissa,kerala will have to launch padayatras and tour their state extensively.
@NR
EXACTLY as as i mentioned WE need GVLN service on this.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT MODI COME OUT IN OPEN.
AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DOUBT OF THIS THAT BJP SUPPORTER WANTS HIM TO LEAD.
THOSE WANTS TO LEAVE…..LET THEM LEAVE NOW
we should take up the thread where we left at the campaign, we should vigorously and actively play the constructive opposition, not just making voices and making walk out.
seriously we should take the black money to the logical conclusion, one of the mistake in the bjp did was it did not correctly convey the message to people, they brought it at the last minute to look like an opportunistic issue, we should go the public and bring the money back, so that we get a face lift among public.
MM joshi statements already being twisted.
while analysing the tn election data, in coimbatore belt one caste based party, has contested 12 constituencies and come third in most of the seats with one lac votes. we should aling with such parties and give a third option to grow in tn. surely we shd forget piggy riding on other parties, if we have to rule india one day, we need to stand on our own legs
I heard him say something and immediaely something more is attributed
i pity the bjp leaders facing tv anchors, they make fun out of them, why do go there in the first place
surely from this weak govt, american chamcha, we will get more issues to fight, especially in kashmir. we need to take advantage of this
thoughtful writing
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/clicklit/entry/bjp-forgot-the-roadmap-delhi
@ langsam
don’t bank on your enemies weekness,
Build your strength, and trounce the enemy.
BJP banked on party of fake Gandhis doing badly in AP, TN and Maha. Look at what happened
@ langsam
The article is most spot-on article to date,
Will BJP guys take notice?
Yoss,
This article definitely needs your attention
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/clicklit/entry/bjp-forgot-the-roadmap-delhi
if we need to win the game, we need to have bowlers at bretlees speed, not @ venky’s. we need the support of media, IT, thorough database, dedicated workers plus money. we should play the dirty game in dirty way, if it is caste politics of mulayam,lalu nature, let it be.
i am positive man, things will turn around,
I guess the times article makes more sense than our whole discussion
Focus on large states. Spread the base, so losses in one place can be made up elsewhere
Guys, we have mourning for a patient who is still alive and kicking, he just needs to grow up.
BJP has done well in its strong holds bar Raj and Maha.
Look at where we can expand. UP, TN, AP, WB
200 seats waiting for BJP. Even a hit rate of 50% will completely turn the tables.
Modiji, Varun and rest of BJP team, a brave new world awaits us, please lead the battle to new frontiers
Langsam – >
how would people recoganise that we are playing a constructive opposition..?
People doesn’t sit and watch parliament proceedings on DD.
They consume what the media says at 9 pm news. Now how constructive we may act, the media is not going to give credit, with this victory they bound to have more arrogance and completely censor BJP. On every Valentine day, and on every, criminal attack , by the likes of muthaliks they are going to brand with Hindu Taliban which automatically gets attributed to BJP.
The only possible way is to BJP spokesperson going to get on these channels has to say to start saying ” media is congress prostitute, it is congress B team and say people would soon realize this” and then start discussing on the topic of the debate.
If the spokespersons go on NDTV, they have to say that prannoy roy is cousin of Prakash Karat and so Nadigram was censored, people will recoganise it, and then start the debate.. And also on Barkhas debate they have to say that she slapped a law suit on a blogger so much for someone who uphold freedom of speech, and then start a debate.
BJP has to be aggressive and first dent the image of this channels by directly ridiculing them live so as to create a doubt in the viewers and then take on Congress(which in any case would do enough harakiri in these 5 years)
If there has been a riot somewhere, which ahs been censored by Media, the same day when they are on discussion BJP should question why did the media censor the riot, (most riots are started by Muslims anyway)
BJP has to directly target media, in discussions everyday discredit it and then we can take congress very easily…
I never saw once BJP mention that in 1991 21-2 billion Dollars got deposited in Rahul gandhi name which was given out by Swiss magazine… I never heard once from BJP spokesperson…. no how are you gonna expose..? without mentioning facts.. and bringing documents and archives to the table…
@ajay
exactly.
unlike last time we had just 2 years.
this time we have 5 years.
SO “SARFOROSHI KI TAMANNA AB HAMARE DIL MEIN HAIN……….”
THANKS GOD ABLE TO CONVINCE IN THIS FORUM THAT WE NEED TEAM AND NOT START BLAMING EACH OTHER LIKE POST 2004.
THOSE WHO WERE UPSET WITH BJP,ON NUCLEAR DEAL WE JUST WAIT FOR THEIR DREAM GET FULFILLED BY THIS GOVERNMENT OF MMS.
MMS MUST DELIVER ON NUCLEAR DEAL FRUITS OF DEVELPOMENT NOW AS PROMISED AS BECOZ OF THAT MANY STILL THINK BJP WAS WRONG IN OPPOSING THAT DEAL.
LET MMS REMOVE ALL PROBLEM NOW WITH THIS NUCLEAR DEAL
Everyone – It is time to close this discussion thread, the debate however will continue on Twitter, INI and everywhere else in your daily lives.
I want to thank everyone, especially those who had words of feedback for Offstumped. They are all food for thought.
At this time I am freezing this election archive site.
Over the next few days I shall be giving thought to what role Offstumped wp.com site must play if any and how Offstumped @ INI must continue to engage in the future.
Any feedback is welcome offstumped-at-gmail-dot-com or via @Offstumped on twitter.
Thanks once again.
sometimes i have a feeling bjp management is very lethargic and lazy, or else what answers u will give for not growing in south since many years, other than karnataka
they need to think out of box, get hold of some castist party/leaders/community leaders. to grow in tn, u cant be a braminical party, shed that image, bring all castes groups gouders, nadars, muthaliars, chettiar under one umbrella, silently play behind them, there is already frustration among people of tn against dmk admk, also against film starts joining politics. support hindus, will get rewards in time.
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