With the second phase of polling for the Lok Sabha ending today, the PTI estimated over 55% turnout across the 12 states and 200 million voters eligible to vote. Of particular interest is the high turnout in the parts of Andhra that went to polls this phase with over 68% turnout reported, nearly 62% in Orissa.
It was also amusing to note Priyanka Vadra’s rationalization of the tepid turnout in Amethi which apparently registered barely 40% turnout, so much so for enthusiasm.
As in the first phase Offstumped is not making any seat wise predictions. However Chakresh Mishra over at the Promise of Reason has been doing some crystal ball gazing, his predictions after the first phase giving NDA 212 and UPA 175 can be found here.
This analysis is focused on bellwhether seats that went to polls today.
There are eight bellwhether seats in the second phase
#1 Dumka in Jharkhand
#2 Rajmahal in Jharkhand
#3 Godda in Jharkhand
#4 Giridih in Jharkhand
#5 Jamshedpur in Jharkhand
#6 Balasore in Orissa
#7 Mayurbhanj in Orissa
#8 Ahmednagar in Maharashtra
#9 Nandyal in Andhra
#1 Dumka in Jharkhand
Dumka in Jharkhand is unique in one of 3 seats across India that has got the outcome of every election right in the last 6 elections. The 4 times it has voted for the JMM it has been a part of the government in New Delhi. THE 2 odd times it has voted for the BJP in 1998 and 1999 the BJP formed the government in New Delhi.
Its ailing JMM Chief’ Shibu Soren’s pocket stronghold and had a low turnout of 42% as well has witnessed some voter boycott incidents. Historically Dumka has had much higher voter turnouts especially in the years when Babulal Marandi won from here. With Shibu Soren playing a victim its anybody’s guess which way this reliable bellwhether seat will lean. A BJP victory should be a strong sign of the diminishing fortunes of the 3rd front.
#2 Rajmahal in Jharkhand
Rajmahal unlike Dumka has been a bellwhether seat 5 out of 6 times except for 1999 when it voted for the Congress. No data yet on the turnout in Raj Mahal today. The RJD is tipped to be a favorite from this seat fielding a congress rebel. With all three UPA allies Congress, JMM, RJD and a renegade JMM splinter group fighting this seat it will be interesting to see if Raj Mahal remains a bellwhether or if 2009 is the year it falls off the bellwhether chart.
#3 Godda in Jharkhand
Godda has been a bellwhether 5 out of 6 times but for reasons different from Raj Mahal voting for the BJP in 1989, 1996, 1998 and 1999 while voting for the Congress and JMM in 2004 and 1991. Historically it has had high turnout in the 60s. While today’s turnout data is yet to trickle in the contest has been interesting family drama between Shibu Soren and his son rebelling against the Congress candidate. Rahul Gandhi has campaigned here as has Rajnath Singh who had a massive rally on 16th April here. A BJP victory here would be strong indicator of the challenges faced by the UPA/3rd front constituents.
#4 & 5 Jamshedpur, Giridhih in Jharkhand
A former JMM stronghold leaned BJP thrice between 1996 and 1999 before returning to JMM in 2004. With a 5 out of 6 track record this seat in all likelihood will return to the BJP with Arjun Munda contesting here.
With Giridih, Jamshedpur like the other bellwhether seats in Jharkhand it seems clear that a sweep by BJP in Jharkhand is a strong indicator of the likelihood NDA government while a JMM sweep is a good indicator of either a Congress or a 3rd front government.
#6 Balasore in Orissa
Balasore once again has been a bellwhether 5 out of 6 times except for 2004 when it voted for the BJP. Historically turnout has been high in this seat with 70% in 2004. Early reports indicate a much lower turnout today of about 55%. With popular BJP leader Kharbela Swain contesting from here a BJP loss from this seat will portend ominously for that party.
#7 Mayurbhanj in Orissa
Mayurbhanj is the other unique seat that distinguishes itself like Dumka having been a bellwhether in all 6 elections. It picked the JD in 1989, the Congress in 91 and 96, BJP in 98 and 99 while picking the JMM in 2004. For a seat that shifted its choice which ever way the electoral wind blows, Mayurbhanj ought to be considered a reliable indicator of the likelihood of a Congress/3rd front government. JMM is tipped to be the favorite in this seat with Naveen Patnaik’s BJD extending support to it. It had a turnout of over 60%. In 2004 the BJP lost this seat by a cliffhanger despite a high turnout of 70%. All bets are off on this one, a JMM loss to the Congress might not mean much but a BJP win would be an upset to the 3rd front’s fortunes.
#8 Nandyal in Andhra
Nandyal has become infamous for hosting a rally in which Y.S. Rajashekhar Reddy made his controversial remarks on Telangana after the close of polls in the first phase.
The importance of Nandyal as a bellwhether must be appreciated thus.
Every single time it has not voted for the Congress, the Congress has neither formed the Government in Delhi nor was it able to prop up a 3rd front government.
In that sense Nandyal is a very reliable indicator of the Congress’ fortunes in Delhi. The PRP which has fielded a former TDP man is tipped as the favorite in this seat. Pay close attention to the outcome for a leading indicator on how the Congress performs in Andhra.
#9 Ahmednagar in Maharashtra
Ahmednagar like Nandyal is once again a very reliable indicator of the likelihood of a Congress government in Delhi. Every single time it has voted for the BJP or Shiv Sena there has been a NDA Government in the center and every single time it has voted for the Congress or the NCP there has been either a Congress or a 3rd front government propped up by the Congress except for 1989. The NCP is facing troubles here with two rebel candidates. That should be a reliable indicator of which way this bellwhether is leaning.
Originally posted here
Filed under: DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
Humdinger – Are they completely run by professionals, what kind of Corporate Governance have they institutionalized ?
http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/apr/24/loksabhapolls-by-default-the-bjp-gains-ground.htm
Rediff is saying, Advantage BJP.
Jayalalitha charges dayanadhi maran with biggest information fraud, something which CBI found out and brought to notice of Pm, but no action was taken. she delves into exact details of that.
anyone knowing tamil may watch her election rally or may be to see crowd.
Yoss,
Corporate governance is a problem in most of the companies originated from India and yes, these are companies are not run by professional completely.
However, they can’t be grouped along with Satyam as family run -crony capitalism based companies. Infotech enterprise, though it is run by a family, is as good as any other IT company from India.When we say that a company is run by professionals, I am not sure what are we talking about. Except Infosys, I don’t see any other company in India that is completely run by professionals.
Wipro,Ranbaxy have seen lot of involvement by the families and their corporate governance is never questioned as these are too big and reputed.
If we are benchmarking corporate governance as professional run and procedural adherence, then most of the companies in India meet these standards on paper.
However, the family run businesses are seen as a good business model even in the most advanced business management models. South Korean Chaebols, Japanes Zaibatsus are all studied in business management for their success over centuries.
Andhra, as in this case, has produced some good family run businesses and few of them happen to be supported by crony-capitalism. I do not think that we can classify all of them into one fold with a sweeping generalization just because we found one massive fraud recently.
very good article by sheela bhatt,, looks like she is reading offstumped.
http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/apr/24/loksabhapolls-by-default-the-bjp-gains-ground.htm
Gujjuman – I dont know if she is reading Offstumped but she sure should know offstumped is reading her
Any link for modi intvw on headlines today folks? TIA.
I don’t think Sheela Bhatt is completely right here. Again, distance from delhi factor is clearly visible. The point is that Orissa and AP are important for NDA to form next government but by no means NDA will be stopped from becoming single largest alliance in this election, the fact which she is fudging.
Anup – Whether UPA with RJD, LJP, SP cannot be called a prepoll alliance is fuzzy since there are no hard constitutional definitions. So in that sense she is ok.
Anybody knows, does Sheela Bhatt fall in to the same category as the Barkhas and Rajdeeps? I did not understand her at all from long. Is she neutral or not? That’s a mystery for me.
On Andhra, I agree with Yossarin. This has started 25 years ago when NTR entered politics. To name one, I think Jalagam Vengal Rao, the congress CM in beginning of 80s was a man of integrity.
Actually, I think there is a fundamental flaw in the society itself. The competition for riches and social status has been too intense and it scares me some times. I am not generalizing to all people of Andhra, but people look for cheap gains than long term benefits. Tamil nadu is no different I guess. For an example, the first thing people ask when you meet some relative after long time is “how much do you earn”. Forget about anything else. It has become a way of living and there has never been an attempt to change that. That is where compromising with ethics start. My two cents. I don’t want to speak more and hurt anybody.
Even UPA with RJD, SP and LJP cannot beat NDA’s pre-poll alliance tally. Add left to UPA then it will. But if you add left, you have to add AIADMK, TRS and TDP.
Another thing she misses for AP is BJP may be required for TDP to form government. No, TRS which will surely be required in AP assembly will force TDP to join NDA. BJP can only compensate for left in state. That means, mostly TDP+TRS will be with NDA.
Sorry, read it as…
“BJP may not be required for TDP to form government”
I envisage an NDA govt in 2009. It will be NDA(current)+ADMK+TDP+TRS+Independents and if required BJD and if still required, outside support of Mayawathi for something to give her in return.
Anup – so far this election season she has been pretty objective I would rate her amongst the most objective and least politically correct analysts this election season. Maybe she is the only one. No other name comes to mind right now.
but i think sheela bhat has been much better than anyone in this election. she has been the better reporter of election 2009(only).
she has been bang on most of the points.
Any info on BJP’s internal assessment for 2nd phase?
OT, made a blog post after a long time,
http://theoneflaw.blogspot.com/2009/04/policies-or-lack-of-it-i.html
http://www.swapan55.com/2009/04/phase-two-trends.html
Check out Swapanda’s assessment on Phase 2 of election.
swapanda assesment makes it clear that in up congress may improve its tally.
also half way mark is 26 in ap, looks like congress has got around 20 seats some how.
but this phase congress had 19 of 20, so 12 is the max. add to it a loss of atleast 4 seats in phase 1 from the 10 it had, so min ap loss seems to 11 and congress might end with max 18. still high tally.
looks like 10 seats gain in orissa is possible and this must compensate to a great extent andhra loss.
so a chiranjeevi as chief minister to get hold of prp lok sabha seats is now a very big possibility.
but i think byregowda complaining is a sure indicator of atleast ananth kumar win.
Offtopic:
From this post on the lkadvani forum, looks like the BJP will not win Kanyakumari, the only seat where it is in within a chance in T.N.
http://www.lkadvani.in/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=4730
probable reason behind chiranjeevi in fourth front might be to create the pressure to install him as cm.
some talk of sympathy wave for chiranjeevi working. then is it the case of wantedly creating sympathy for chiranjeevi by congress to ensure those neutral votes dont go to tdp?
speculations…..
ab, what is pointed in those two posts is largely true of bjp state in TN, but the very dynamics of current situation in kanyakumari, the open blessings of the swamiji of vaigundar temple to advani ji, should ensure bjp is in with very high chance.
Congress doing well in phase 2 may not mean Congress improving its tally by much in u.p. Was looking at LS 2004 results and there are 2-3 seats in this phase in which they came second,apart from Amethi which they won. It won’t be too much of a surprise to see them gain a bit in this phase. BJP was competititve only in 3-4 seats in this phase.
IMHO,BJP’s chances in U.P depend upon western u.p- how well the alliance with RLD works and what sort of impact Varun Gandhi might have(in terms of polarization on both sides). If I am not mistaken, in western u.p, it will be a fight mainly between BSP and BJP/RLD.
Swapan report does not actually look all that good,
Assam is a minor state, even a complete sweep will not add much to final tally
Congress may lose Andhra, but which way TDP and Chiru will swing is a BIG if,
Jharkand is good news, along with Assam, but again it does not add upto much
MP was already good, so its a small gain
Swapan says only small losses for Cong in Maha, so that’ll be a disappointment
Statusquo in Karnataka
Nothing major for BJP in UP,
Cong gains in Orrisa, and that offset some losses elsewhere
All in all, Swapan’s report actually looks sad.
But I feel the assessment given is more pessimistic than real figures, just to keep cadres on their toes and prevent consolidation of votes. Maha should definitely be better, UP may also be better, and those two alone will change equations.
From Swapan’s blog
“But there are non-quantitative reports of the BJP not doing so well in Bangalore”
Does this mean Ananth Kumar may be in trouble in Bangalore South?.
@Ajay
It will be a close election , so those gains in Assam and jharkand will matter- in fact every seat matters. And if they can maintain M.P and Karnataka, that is pretty much good news.Now they only need to ensure that losses in rajastan are minimized so that they can compensate them from gains in guj and u.p.
Sentence in previous post should have been “and prevent consolidation of Muslim votes”
NR, half way in AP is 21 right. Then he says “unlikely to be near the half-way mark”. It should be 15 at max for Congress in AP. Nothing more, but can be less. Now TRS and Telangana factor are crucial for TDP+TRS to join NDA. TRS will surely be a deciding factor in AP.
Don’t be surprised if they sail with UPA and congress in the state if they are promised T-state. I heard TRS demanded many crores from TDP to join grand alliance. So, whoever has the purchasing capacity should get them. Further, PRP doing well is certainly bad news because you can add them to Congress. Looks like everything hinges now only on AP. UP is more or less predictable now and Maha will also be predictable after next phase. AP will be the single most deciding factor in my opinion.
http://www.asianage.com/presentation/leftnavigation/news/india/phase-2-bjp-sure-of-68.aspx
The BJP is in an upbeat mood, with party leaders confident that it will win around 68 parliamentary constituencies, of the 141 parliamentary seats that went to poll on Thursday. The party had won 38 seats from these constituencies during the last polls.
Commenting on the performance of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the ongoing polls, party spokesperson Ravishankar Prasad said that the UPA, which had 60 seats earlier, would win around 40-42 seats, out of the 141 parliamentary constituencies. The party is confident of performing better in Bihar, Maharashtra, Assam, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh
@AB
Even if BJP emerges as single largest party by a slim margin, i’m willing to bet that the rest will gang up to keep it out of power,
All is fair in name of secularism
at this point at least one very clear trend is emerging… we are no where near the doomsday scenario of cong+bjp less than 272.. so a possibility of a masala non cong non BJP is not gonna be possible at all…and swapan da’s indication saying that the 2nd phase was “very good” for the BJP & also his doubt over congress to emerge single largest party make it pretty clear tht BJP might emerge the single largest but only just so..abt bangalore i feel Ak may scrape thru but but the others not so sure.. kumaraswamy has virtually bought every vote that is up for sale..jaffer shareif just lost his only surviving son 4 days back due to heart attack so had a sympathy wave going for him..sangliana’s seat was a 3 cornered contest with a strong JDS candidate zammer khan so its gonna be close on this one.. so BLR may be 1-3 or at best 2-2..rest of state may lead to more or less status quo for BJP..quite a few of the educated core cong voters i know have bought into the “majboot neta nirnayak sarkaar” theme and have voted for BJP and the pak talibanisation report is only adding to this effect.. hence the kandahar issue by cong (but this also seems to be backfiring wit cong saying it don giv 2 shits abt innocents)..
AB
Blr-south, Ananth is sailing through. My apprehension is Bangalore central. In BLR-rural too BJP will win against HDK (son of HDD).
@ajay holding on to MP is actually a major major plus since its a big state with 29 smae with maha.. also jharkahand+assam where performance last time was pathetic may add 10-14 seats (considering major losses only in rajasthan ) potential gains in UP and gujarat..and status quo and balances elsewhere BJP might just get wat GVLNR has predicted 160+ (a gain of 25 seats overall)…
BLR rural the situation is like all 3 major candidates are gowdas..so gowda vote wil split b/w cong and JDS (few for BJP) vokkaligas expected to rally behind BJP and minorities votes expected to split.. so BJP must win by default.. but like i said kumar anna has virtually thrown the kitchen sink into this election so hez got the upper hand i feel..also the IT- pub going loose and forward youth voters that byre gowda was relying on apparently had not even registered in significant numbers and as expected took the chance and ran on holidays citing the extended weekend..so KB Gowda was dumbfounded!!!!
NR,
I don’t know your sources for speculating abt possible Cong-PRP game plan to split TDP votes, but I heard a few Cong supporters talking about is as an open secret.
Great Andhra says PRP is keeping options open and businessmen lobby from coastal AP is working on TDP-PRP alliance to keep YSR out of power.This possibility is making Cong open channels with KCR, who may be willing to play both sides of the game, and sell to the highest bidder.
Chiru joining 4th front is a measure of desperation, and reflects on his vapid political views.
Both Sheela Bhat and Swapan seem to suffer from distance from hyderabad factor when it comes to AP analysis.Will be interesting to see GVLNR’s take on AP.
Andhra Jyothy carried an extensive analysis today.As per them, all three possibilities are alive (Cong, TDP, hung), but the most likely seem to be Maha Kutami emerging as single largest and closest to power.Regarding LS, no one’s hazarding a guess, but most likely scenario is Congress 16-18.
The most imp point raised by Sheela Bhat is the question of what Pratibha Patil would do if Cong emerges as single largest but NDA is largest pre-poll alliance.
There is no need to guess here.Mrs.Patil will call Sonia first and do what Sonia asks her to do.
Regarding the ‘unethical and corrupt’ polity that is ’so unique to AP’, I bow to the majority feelings here, and reserve my comments.
Ravi Shankar Prasad’s assesment looks reasonable,
sorry anup,
that miscalculation was in a hurry of disaapointment.
yes, now that sounds better. atleast 14 seat loss.
i hope jaffer sharief had played some games to ensure sangliana lost.
while a majority of 2.5 lakh christian votes could have gone to sangliana, the muslim votes would have been split by jds.
but its north that might be a problem. some sympathy votes would have certainly happened for sharief.
Kumar – Distance from Hyderabad factor is good one
On the other major debate on this blog again you are missing the point its not unique to AP. Its about why we have not seen a strong enuf backlash from AP after over 2 decades of tolerance. Bihar had its backlash with Nitish, Gujarat its with Modi, K’nataka in its own unique way with BJP/BSY, Delhi with Sheila Dixit and so on…. why does Andhra like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have such a great tolerance and a compromising attitude to what is essentially a crony caste based oligarchy ?
Byre Gowda knew by end stages of his campaign that loose-crowd wooing attempt will actually backfire with middle class. Later he made a point in a debate saying his attempts to woo non-lower class crowd was a complete failure even in assembly contest.
His only strong point outside his assembly constituency is Vijayanagar where the rich sitting cong MLA has spent money by truck loads.
AK is on strong ground,
Anup and Humdinger,
Actually, Yossarin’s open question was to name a current TDP/Cong MLA who is known for his honesty/incoruptibility by even his enemies.
So, jalagam vengal rao, vavilala and other such late/retired leaders don’t count.Some of the communist MLAs/MPs are honest, but they also don’t count as they have never been in power.
I can list at least half-a-dozen names of contemporary TDP/Cong leaders who qualify for this strict benchmark, but I agree none of them can win the elections on their own.Also, that doesn’t prove any thing, except anecdotal evidence. And yes, even without being in power, State BJP leaders are also equally corrupt, if not more.
As we say in Rayalaseema, ‘its all the lila of venkanna and mallanna.’
kumar,
it is not unique to AP.
The leaders of the rot are in TN. they set example on almost everything. i dont know if you know tamil, but the charges laid by jayalalitha on maran are quite serious. She also directly questioned manmohan singh and sonia gandhi for not taking any action on the report filed by IB/CBI and supressing it.
On andhra No sources to guess. But having come across sympathy factor out of tirupathi incient from couple of friends( dont know where they got it) and other few websites, I speculated, that the whole drama in tirupathi, the subsequent car chase of chiru by karunakar reddy on poll day followed by media vans could have been a well planned attempt by congress to ensure sympathy for chiru and ensure a split in anti congress votes.
speculations on prp-congress is from the fact that chiranjeevi has now twice openly stated i am not prepared to be kingmaked but king.
so it is possible that if chiranjeevi has considerable lok saibha seats crucial to congress, sonia may direct congress for outside support to prp with chiru as cm.
as for as money from buisnessman to the wheeler dealer to influence prp-tdp alliance is concerned, once congress is ok for cm post, who can beat congress in suitcases.
A TDP-PRP alliance a recipe for disaster for CBN. If he is sane enough he want accept it. ofcourse ramoji will attempt for that, or atleast to get him to bjp side.
a congress-prp govt headed by chiru will also dent chiru image but will definitely ensure that congress becomes non entity slowly in andhra as well.
So tdp would do well not to align with prp. prp is its biggest danger for survival.
Kumar, just to consolidate Yossarin’s point. Chiru was seen as that hope, like a Modi, or Nitish. But after Prabhakar’s exit it is clear that this is the biggest fraud and may be bigger than Satyam fraud. People are saying Chiru and Allu made money to the tune of 3K crores. Now, when they say they will change politics and then cheat like this, I have never heard of this. This is bigger than YSR’s scams or NCB’s money minting. And, to my surprise many people say whatever Chiru does, he is right. Money is required because there are candidates from weaker sections who cannot spend on their own. I am completely taken aback when I saw people defending him after this mega cheating came out.
Yoss,
Karnataka was actually won by BJP on caste equations. Cong did play clean here, Yeddi rallied Lingayat votes, and BJP traditional nationalist vote stayed with it, which add up to the assembly numbers.
Congress is losing it big time here because no caste is backing it state wide. JD-S is losing because even Gowda’s own caste members are disillusioned with him. Christians and Muslims only hold sway in coastal districts, but their vote is split.
Expect BJP to strike a big score in this round. If BJP manages to consolidate Gowda votes behind it in long run, Karnataka will stay a BJP bastion for long time to come,
Yossarin,
One instance of TN erupting was in 1996 after the gross allegations on jaya brought out by subramaniam swamy, nuisance factor nemesis of every politican in TN. Every leader from every field openly voiced against her that landslide was handed out to dmk-tmc combine and jaya to lost the seat.
but the problem was who they chose. A much bigger scraper of the khazana.
So the assesment of apathy in tn, maha and ap towards corruption stands.
Ajay – Agree but there was a certain sentiment that was reflected by Hegde in the 1980s of clean politics that BJP inherited that the Gowda brand of politics was an anti-thesis of.
Ajay, but development is important. BSY should not start appeasement of castes as it is happening in AP, etc. Some castes then start castigating BJP for less appeasement. This is dangerous in long run.
@Kumar,
Karnataka does have good legislators this time around,
Suresh Kumar is down right honest man. NaMo may get corrupt before he does!
Ashok Kumar is also pretty good. Most of developments about Bangalore buses posted by NR here were actually Ashok’s efforts.
Kageri, the education minister is also a pretty reasonable.
Ananth Kumar Hegde (not AK) MP of Karwar is a staunch Hindutva guy. He is Ashok Singal and Pravin Togadia put together. He openly declared that he won’t allow Muslims to take out processions. He is known for his social service work among local tribals, and the saying here is that if LKA tries to get Hegde removed, RSS will kick LKA out
anup,
i have heard worst defences.
chiru,prp has not made single money. all money made by allu.
well ajay,
AKH equations with rss was clear when he declared he does not need minority votes to win, and bsy though on defensive had no choice but to stand by him
@Anup
To Yeddi’s credit, while he is playing up caste equations for elections, he is sticking to all round development and specifically rural. Which is why I expect BJP to make gains in this round. While there is the usual apathy about current govt, there is no specific complaints about it, save for Mangalore incident, even which only ELM talks about
Kumar,
sorry, I did not realize it was current leaders. And among current leaders, at least I don’t know and as you said, BJP in AP is also corrupt. I told one of my relatives in Malkajgiri to vote for BJP and he said for one reason I won’t vote for BJP because I hate N.Indrasena Reddy who does not do any work.
If I had voted in AP, my vote in assembly would go for Lok satta. At least that gives encouragement to JPN in terms of vote %.
Few more anecdotes about Ananth Kumar Hegde,
He hosted Indian flag on Idgah Maidan in Hubli despite a curfew and a ban on his entry to town. It was later learnt that AKH had reached the ground by going thru kilometers of storm water drains and pipes to escape police eyes. Imagine what a insult it was to police who were guarding the ground and the town,
He is also accused of 7 murders and has another 80 cases against him. All communal of course. Fact is, everybody there believes he did commit those murders.
Looks like all of us are up today for a long discussion on these twin issues.
Yoss,
Sorry..I was trying to be a bit sarcastic and so put ’so unique’ in quotes because I feel it is not unique to AP, TN and Maharashtra.Looks like I have failed in conveying my polite sarcasm
AP’s biggest political event has been the creation of TDP in 1982.And TDP has stood for anti-Congressism since then, among other things.It took the concerted effort from Cong+TRS+Left+Naxals to get rid of TDP in 2004, and even then TDP lost over 90 seats with less than a few thousands, and 50 seats less than 1000.TDP vote share was 0.5% less than Cong.And BJP alliance was not the reason for TDP’s loss, contrary to what media has made everyone believe.CBN tried to do too many things, but lacked the nous to work the bureaucracy and retain laser focus on results, the way Modi does.Remember the days when Telugus were appreciated for voting CBN back in 1999?He was called the CEO of AP Inc and even right wing observers went to town praising him.And TDP supported NDA without joining the Govt.Show me one single regional party that has done this till now.This is not to defend CBN or TDP, but to show that AP polity is not all rotten.
You expect Telugus to militate against the establishment, Yoss? Please read the local supplements in Telugu newspapers from any district (not Saakshi please!).There may not be crusaders with national, international level publicity, but you will see the political and development consciousness in AP is much higher than rest of South India (can’t comment about Gujarat as I have not lived there).
Just to give an example, the anti-liquor campaign in the early 90s was started and run mostly by women, across AP.NTR captured those votes and returned to power in 1994.
Take away Hyderabad city during the Congress rule, AP hardly if ever had any communal disturbances.The entire Telangana movement has been non-violent, and not a single life has been lost, nor non-telanganas and non-telugus targeted at any time.
Till CBN came to power, YSR was a bit player whose claim to fame was his supposed closeness with Rajiv Gandhi and the barytes mines he brazenly stole from the Govt.YSR gained in stature because he transformed himself into an aggressive opposition leader.People trusted his alliance.How is that tolerance?
Look at the response to Lok Satta.If the BJP has a single leader in AP with half the credibility of JP, it would have got 50 seats in the assembly and 1o LS seats on its own.
The elections this time have been the most caste-ridden, and vote bank appeasement-ridden in AP history.The people are aware of this, and disgusted with the depths to which the political class has sunk.But the people have not sunk and their verdict in AP is going to be most rational, as it always has been.
Kumar – NTR was a response to that sentiment but wrong choice. He got a second chance again I voted for him after that liquor movement etc but once again wrong choice. We all got taken away by CBN’s marketing blitz. Reality was nothing changed outside cyberabad
I hope JP and BJP make common cause. I have advocated for it in private.
this is what i expected
Mahalakshmi of Alandoor Road in Saidapet said: “It is better that we do not stir the Sri Lankan issue. We do not want any problem here.”
Y Inbaraj of Kasthuri Traders in Villivakkam: “No one is bothered. Parties want to get mileage. They are taking the Tamils of Tamil Nadu for a ride.”
V Devanesan Karupaiah, a missionary from Aminjikarai: “Only the Tamils are to be blamed for what happened in Lanka. All leaders have egos and that has spoiled things. It is our own Tamil race to be blamed. This would not have happened if the LTTE and other Tamil leaders had stayed united. LTTE should not have killed Rajiv Gandhi.”
R Velmurugan running a flour mill on the same road said: “The issue is solely created by politicians. It does not influence our decision while voting.”
“Don’t talk about Sri Lankan issue — it is humbug. I do not understand why an issue is made out of it. We have our problems and have no time to think about it. No doubt people are suffering. But first take care of our sufferings. We are also Tamils,” said Natarajan, an ironwallah in Madurai’s KK Nagar. B Ramanathan, a TVS employee in Madurai asks: “What do politicians have to say about what is happening in Maharashtra? What are the Thackerays doing? Driving away Biharis? Tamils are safe there as Maharashtra has trade ties in Tamil Nadu. Is any other country interfering in the way Raj Thackeray attacked Biharis? Why should we interfere in what is internal affair of Sri Lanka. I support what Rajapaksa is doing. He has a right to decide what is good for his country.”
Muthiah (65), a farmer in K Vallapuram under Kallikuri block Thirumangalam segment in Virudhunagar constituency from where Vaiko is contesting, said: “We go for work daily to earn the day’s bread. We are more concerned about our issues.”
“Everyone likes Vaiko. But no one pays likes his love for LTTE. We all fasted for young Mani who self-immolated for the Lankan Tamils. But no one wants to say they don’t care, lest Vaiko is annoyed,” said a roadside restaurant owner of Koonursandai village in Sivakasi — Vaiko’s home constituency.
“People are wary of Lankan issue being raised by politicians. But people simply give lip service to the issue for fear of politicians,” said J Bhaskar of Virudhunagar. (Virudhunagar was under Vaiko’s erstwhile Sivakasi constituency. After delimitation, Virudhunagar has become a parliamentary constituency and Sivakasi segment is part of it.)
Kumar, I agree but don’t you think TDP also stooped low this time to regain power at all costs? I think NCB’s time was good with perceptibly less corruption and good governance but droughts, no rainfall and no rural development did the undoing of NCB and also NDA at the center.
I also agree on the fact that he did not loose because of BJP. Even he himself knows that BJP is not cause of his downfall. I too hope people give a better judgment this time.
Yossarin, BJP should get rid of current leaders if they have to align with JP or at least be hard on them and set targets. The only base for BJP in state is hard core hindutvas of the Ram janmabhoomi movement + those who admired Vajpayee for his excellent work during 98-04. They should increase the second type base.
Yossarin, don’t you think the problem in AP is also lack of political awareness of what is happening in remaining states?
Anup – I dont think so. I think it is the opposite, we are too informed and hence end up being clever by the half out of deep cynicism. I think its the deep cynicism which is the problem.
Anup,
I for any one never had any hope on Chiru the moment he said:” BJP is not a secular party and so I can’t go with them.” Any leader who makes that statement 2 days into his political career is dumb and just nuisance value.
When NTR launched TDP, it was not known as kamma party.Similarly, YSR is not known for any casteism.But PRP from day one gleefully branded itself as a Kapu party.
NR,
Hats off to your powers of analysis.You have put two and two together, and arrived at the same conclusion hundreds of Congressmen are trying to spread in the State.Even if there is no such deal, this deliberate targeting has made people suspicious.Btw, the Cong candidate in Tirupati, Karunakar Reddy is an honest man and doesn’t have any taint of corruption.He might be YSR’s best friend, but he has worked very hard on pushing TTD towards ‘hindu dharma jagruti’.Chiru has been the only one to accuse him of pilfering TTD money and Reddy vowed on the Lord that he will die a worm’s death if he has touched the offerings.
But sir, please don’t write off TDP-PRP possibilities.There is a coastal and telangana lobby of businessmen that don’t want to see YSR in power again, and they are looking at huge infrastructure projects that will be awarded during the next term.Plus, Kapus have traditionally been TDP supporters in Telangana and Rayalaseema.
If PRP joins hands with Congress, it will have no future.If they join TDP, they will still fight over the spoils, but slowly Cong will get pushed into 3rd place in the State.YSR doesn’t have the staying power to survive 5 years without power.I say BJP should do all it can to push for a TDP-PRP alliance (if the need arises).Best way to start long process of killing Congress in AP.
Anup,
I think, in TN and AP it is more to do with, as far as iam fine, i have no loss, i dont care.
Lok satta – BJP combo would be cool.. some people are saying BJP might win up to 3 LS seats in AP.. Malkajgiri, Secunderabad & Chevella… can anyone confirm ?
Yoss,
To be honest, at that time NTR was the only choice because the alternative was Congress with its high-command and ’sealed cover’ culture.NTR’s ideology is a product of the times.
CBN and development – that is a separate issue altogether ! He did a lot of things even in rural areas (Janmabhoomi, Neeru-Meeru etc) but as you said, his marketing blitz and draught did him in.But still, just 0.5% less than Congress.
Totally with you on JP+BJP.I hoped it would be JP+BJP (and Chiru joining one of these parties).I am disappointed with Chiru and with state BJP.
And you are spot on about the cynicism borne out of knowing too many things, and being too clever by half.That is the one generalization I would accept about Telugus.
Good night guys !
Well kumar i was only speculating and i clearly mentioned that. its a specu lation based on fact that congress will stoop to any level to split anti congress votes.
i never said a deal was on but only felt that the possibility of congress prp was more given that sonia will be more worried about her gaddi than ysr. i have just not ruled out tdp-prp possibility, but stated that in my opinion it will be harmful to tdp in long run.
Anything which will eventually lead congress in ap to be a begger like in bihar, up in long run, i will go for that.
As far as karunakar reddy is concerned when he took over, everybody was afraid given his past.
But i think as TTD chairman, he was simply good. His consulting various swamijis, tilak rule, importantly kalyanotsavams and dalita govindam are acts which everyone appreciated. As a final good, he also had SVBC launched, which was a great act. the programmes are good and spread dharma. despite the initial acts of proselytisation gaining ground, he did implement the swamijis suggestions.
I would have voted for him say if he was in any party other than congress.
I think, with YSR congress’s chances in AP will fade. I don’t see a single leader and even YSR sitting in opposition for 5 years will be the end of it. If Telangana is split, KCR can also sustain at the max for one term. The future looks great for JP+BJP combo but how well people receive it is the question.
NR,
I think we had a similar discussion few days back on this blog.My take is that if Sonia expects YSR to sacrifice for the sake of few PRP MPs, YSR will extract a ton of flesh from the Italian ‘Medam garu’.
We all know Cong can stoop to any lows, but YSR is caable of out-stooping any one in Congress including the Madam.What can Sonia possibly give YSR to compensate for the loss of CM post?He is too young for Governor giri.Being a CM will mean more power than being Union Minister.And thousans of crores of property to protect.If push comes to shove, YSR won’t listen to high command, and will think of splitting State Congress unit.It is far more easier and neat to buy the PRP MLAs, with or without Chiranjeevi
TRS could merge with BJP in telangana.. they would be the single largest party in every single election. TDP never had much clout here and Cong will always be remembered with YSR’s hate speech.
Narendra Modi’s website now in Sanskrit also
http://deshgujarat.com/2009/04/24/narendra-modis-website-now-in-sanskrit-also/
Even I had to face up to the reality that BJP’s once-powerful clout in Telangana has been largely destroyed, and I use CK Rao’s performance in the Karimnagar by-elections as case in point.
BJP had a lot of potential in Andhra and the tie-up with CBN really destroyed it altogether. Look at the %’s it got in 1998 without an alliance (I think the NTR(TDP) was about as much of any ally as some of the crap BJP has picked up in Tamil Nadu this time)…take a seat like Adilabad, which is gave up to CBN but polled like 25% of votes in 1998, can it really get that again? Big question on our minds this time. Its important that unless the PRP or TDP can provide essential support to an NDA government, BJP stays away from them. It is time to turn AP into another Karnataka. It is time to turn Orissa into a BJP state. It is time to destroy the TRS’s, BJD’s and so on.
Congrats on the success of your blog! I started my very own wordpress blog recently so when you have the chance, check it out! Good luck.
http://chicagoismynewblog.wordpress.com/
Some people are saying that both Bandaru Dattatreya and Baddam bal reddy are sure shot winners ? Maybe they are hard core BJP supporters or not, I dont know… found that info just going through some forums.
YouTube pick of the day-
Swapan Dasgupta and Friends of BJP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44Fly8kcCCI
(This is simply a rant and not a personal attack) God have mercy on us! After months of avoiding it, I dared to watch Sagarika Ghosh, discussing black money. Ms. Ghosh actually asked Mr. Ram Jethmalani, the petitioner on the matter to SC, to provide EVIDENCE and NAMES of the folks stashing away their ill gotten loot and suggested else it was simply a ploy to corner Congress!! Secrecy thy name is Swiss Bank and here we have Ms. Ghosh actually saying this on TV.
Besides she made every attempt to not make this look bad on the Congress. And let myths float freely about the BJP being opportunistic without caring to clarify that Mr. Advani had raied this issue a year ago.
Chetambaram has to cheat thanks to delimitation which changed the nature of his constituency and added segments he is not used to.
Add to that other getting trichy-Sivaganga-manamadurai-rameshwaram converted to broad gauge in these 5 years, and getting SR to introduce a train in an utterly completely over saturated route against wishes of SR compromising passenger safety and ensuring that the entire schedule of trains from chennai existing for decades is put into disarray, he has done nothing for his consti.
GVLNR’s prediction of BJP sweeping strongholds is coming true.
Jitters in Congress camp as estimates go for a six
NEW DELHI: It’s time for a reality check for Congress. Although the party is persisting with the “we are on a roll” line in public, there is
nervousness in the leadership over the Grand Old Party’s performance in six key states that account for 212 seats. These include the two game changer states of 2004 — Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh — party-run Maharashtra and BJP controlled MP, Gujarat and Karnataka.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4446350.cms?flstry=1
Mohan, that is a general perception that Chevella and Sec’bad is going to BJP. Even The Hindu, the communists mouth piece, reported that BJP has a chance in these. Add to them Malkajgiri, Adilabad, and Nizamabad. But one has to wait for the results.
[...] Campaign for Elections 2009 provides an analysis of the second phase of the Indian elections 2009. Cancel this [...]