The first phase of voting for the Lok Sabha has come to an end covering 17 States and union territories in 124 constituencies with 143 million of India’s 714 million voters eligible to exercise their franchise.
IANS had this early report on the voter turnout
In Andhra Pradesh, once a Maoist bastion, there was 60-65 per cent voter turnout, 65 per cent in the three parliamentary constituencies of Assam and 60-70 per cent in Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh, also in the northeast. Manipur was lower at 40 to 50 per cent.
In violence-hit Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, about 50 per cent of the voters turned to cast their franchise.
Long queues were seen outside booths in Kerala with officials estimating that the turnout would be about 60 per cent. It was highest in Ernakulam with 67.5 per cent and surprisingly low in Thiruvananthapuram, where the Congress fielded star debutant, former UN under-secretary general Shashi Tharoor, with 45.4 per cent.
Unlike in recent elections Offstumped is not carrying detailed seat by seat predictions on account of the fact that this is the first national election after delimitation and also on account of the fact that this election will also a large number of first time voters participating.
However an examination of the Lok Sabha seats that went to polls in this phase is useful to determine if any of them are bellwhether seats that have always voted in a manner that is in line with who forms the government at the center.
Regular Offstumped Reader Gaelo Rhinus has done some excellent analysis crunching the numbers across the last six Lok Sabha elections between 1989 when the monopoly of the Congress party on national politics ended to 2004 when the Congress for the first time in its history formed a coalition government.
Over the rest of the election season Offstumped will carry an analysis of these bellwhether seats to see if we can detect any leading indicators on the final outcome.
Of the 124 Lok Sabha seats that went polls today, based on Gaelo Rhinus’ number crunching the following seats can be called bellwhether seats.
#1 Mahasamund in Chattisgarh
#2 Aska in Orissa
#3 Bolangir in Orissa
#4 Sambalpur in Orissa
#5 Sundargarh in Orissa
#6 Mahabubnagar in Andhra
#7 Peddapalle in Andhra
#1 Mahasamund
Mahasamund was a bellwhether seat 5 out of 6 times in the last six elections.
It reliably voted for Janata Dal in 1989 and for the Congress 1991 and 2004. It also voted against the BJP in 1996 and with the BJP in 1998.
The only year where it voted for a party that neither formed the Government nor had a stake in the government through outside support was in 1999 when it voted for the Congress.
This year early reports suggest 51% voter turnout in Mahasamund. Mr. Advani had a rally in Mahasamund on the last day of campaigning. Rahul Gandhi campaigned in Mahasamund as well on April 11th. Ajit Jogi won from here last time but its an unreserved seat this time with two OBC leaders battling it out.
The final outcome may well depend on the turnout here which traditionally has been the 60s. The early estimate of low turnout of 51% does not augur well for the BJP.
#2 Aska
Aska once again has been a bellwhether seat 5 out 6 times. It reliably voted for Janata Dal in 1989 and 1996 when the National Front and United Front governments were formed. It also voted for the Congress in 1991 and for the NDA in 1998 and 1999. The only year it missed voting for a party that was part of the central government was in 2004.
No data yet on turnout in Aska but for some reports of long queues of women lining up to vote.
The BJD has fielded a defector from the CPI in this seat while the Congress has fielded a veteran recluse who only recently returned to active politics. The BJP has fielded a debutant Shanti Devi, wife of a former royal.
Which ever way Aska votes this time, it definitely will not be bellwhether to the BJP’s prospects of forming the government unless Naveen Patnaik returns the NDA fold after the elections.
#3 Bolangir
Bolangir like the rest got it right 5 out of 6 times. It too got it wrong in 2004. But unlike Aska which has been a BJD bastion, Bolangir has been a BJP bastion which makes it interesting for this analysis.
No data yet on voter turnout in Bolangir, its the largest constituency in Orissa in the first phase with 14 lakh voters. The battle is between two former royals marking the BJD-BJP split. Rahul Gandhi has campaigned in Bolangir after staying overnight and giving his security the slip.
The margin of victory for the BJP has narrowed over the years in this seat. If the BJD cuts into the BJP vote by around 7% this seat is a cliffhanger.
#4 Sambalpur
Sambalpur too go it wrong in 2004 like Aska and Bolangir. With a poor voter turnout in a Maoist infested area, Sambalpur looks like a BJD Congress fight and whichever way it votes will likely be an indicator of a 3rd front or Congress government to come. A possible surprise could be the Hindu vote mobilisation in urban areas of Sambalpur on account of restrictions on a local religious function following onthe impact of Narendra Modi’s campaign rally in Sambalpur.
#5 Sundargarh
Sundargarh like Bolangir became a BJP bastion to get it wrong only in 2004 while being a bellwhether in other 5 elections. It bore the brunt of Maoist violence on a few polling stations today.
The BJP candidate Joel Oram has been in the news over the years for taking on Naveen Patnaik on a host of issues. With resentment brewing on the issue of Mining at Khandadhar (not Kandahar) it would be interesting to see if the BJP can retain this seats. If this report is anything to go by it may just be smooth sailing for the BJP.
#6 Mahabubnagar
Mahabubnagar in Andhra is perhaps the second most reliable indicator of the Congress’ prospects of forming the Government in New Delhi. It has one of the largest BPL population in Andhra and not a very great track record of implementing NREGS.
Whenever Mahabubnagar has voted for the Congress it has either formed the government at the center or like in 1996 had a stake in the government. The lone exception being 1989.
It reported some incidents of violence and damage to EVMs today.
TRS Chief and the chief protagonist for the Telangana cause K. Chandrashekhar Rao, KCR, contesting from here with reports suggesting he has a tough fight.
If Mahabubnagar votes against the Congress this time the likelihood of Manmohan Singh returning as Prime Minister is almost zero.
#7 Peddapalle
Peddapalle like Mahabubnagar should rank as the second most reliable indicator of the likelihood of a Congress government in the center. Everytime it has voted for the Congress we have had a Congress government or a government propped up by the Congress but for 1989. Early reports indicate a very poor voter turnout in Peddapalle. Congress veteran G. Venkataswamy has given the seat to his son Vivekananda. Despite his exhortations the Congress leadership has been reluctant to endorse the Telangana cause with Rahul Gandhi refusing to bring it up at a recent campaign event.
Remains if Telangana comes back to bite the Congress in Peddapalle. A Congress loss here is a strong indicator of the dimming prospects for Manmohan Singh in New Delhi.
More analysis on bellwhether seats to come in subsequent phases. In the meantime here is an Offstumped teaser on any bellwhether seats that got all 6 elections right between 1989 and 2004.
Originally posted here
Filed under: Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
any after we heard of innovative ways of distributing cash for votes in andhra, here is another from TN. i think south might have largest pool of illegal money
The once notorious money lenders of the poor villagers in Pudhupatti near Alangulam in Tirunelveli district seemed to have suddenly become saviours of the people as they voluntarily approach them and assure interest free loans in exchange for their votes to the party with which the moneylender is affiliated with.
It is learnt that some major political parties are behind this new practice of luring votes through loans to poor villagers.
According to moneylender Gopi (name changed) of Sivalarkulam near Alangulam, “We have been instructed to distribute loans of a maximum of Rs 1,000 only in villages.” Even among the villagers, the moneylenders have been told to give loans only to the poor.
Gopi, who refused to disclose his political affiliation said, “When all the major parties have taken up this business, what is the use of accusing only a few.”
Another moneylender, Ramakrishnan, said he was approached by some party workers two weeks ago and he readily accepted to distribute the loans. He however said, “I just canvassed some of my regular borrowers in Mukkudal and the dalit-dominated Kaliyankulam as the party assured me the money for distribution only in the first week of May.”
One of the borrowers in Maruthamuthur said that she was assured of a loan of Rs 1,000 for which she need not give interest in the first 3 months and pay a low interest of 2 per cent for the rest of the term till she repays the principal amount.
This beedi roller was, however, asked for an assurance that she would vote in favour of a particular party. “I said ok as we always vote for that party anyway.”
As the moneylenders have been promised an attractive offer of reimbursement of 50 per cent of the principal amount disbursed, Ramakrishan said they agreed on the deal. But not all moneylenders in the area welcome the scheme as many fear that it would affect their lending business after the elections are over and the borrowers would ask for loans with the same concessions offered to them during the election.
When contacted, Tirunelveli district collector R. Palaniyandi, told Deccan Chronicle that though it was a difficult task to prove the allegation as documentary evidence would not be available, he said he would take up the issue with the police officers.
DC
I don’t understand how nithish can support congress in the center? Is nitish has himself majority in Bihar or congress has enough numbers to support Nithish?
Congress has less than 10 seats while Nitish requires 30 seats to keep the govt in Bihar. If Nithish wants to change either he should sacrifice the state govt or wait for 2010 Nov schedule for assembly elections.
Or Lalu should support Nitish so that he can support congress at the centre.
NR
How many seats will black MGR win in TN? Is there any support on the ground for him? Karthik is giving interviews saying he is fighting from Virdhunagar isnt it the same place where vijaykanth won?
Bangaloreans,
please join us in door-2-door campaigning for Bangalore North BJP candidate Chandre Gowda this weekend. We assemble at BJP Election office (17th cross, Malleshwaram) at 9.30 AM both Sat & Sun morning and head to the field.
Chandre Gowda’s webpage: http://dbchandregowda.in/
BJP North Bangalore: http://www.bjpblrnorth.com/
G
Vijayakanth won from Viruthchalam not Virudungar and Viruthachalam is in North and Virudunagar is in south. Vijayakanth would be more of spoiler than winning anything. He got around 8% vote last assembly election. He might increase it a bit around 12 maybe. The conventional wisdom says Vijayakanth will spilit the anti DMK vote and helps the DMK alliance. But we will know for sure only after 16th.
As for as Karthik and Sarathkumar are concerned they have ver little vote share they will be of very little help to BJP. Sarathkumars party got only around 700 votes in the last by election.Karhiks party did not even contest.That gives you and idea about their strength.
In Virudunagar Vaiko of MDMK is contesting. Karthik might add some comic relief to that seat thats all.
NR, looks like Congress will lose big in AP. Difficult to be single largest party.
BJP has to do well in their strongholds otherwise Congress can compensate their losses in AP to some extent.
Karthik
Why did Vijaykanth spurn an offer from BJP to stitch an alliance? I am sure he would have also benefitted from it. I fail to understand why he wants to go alone when as you say he can only be a spoiler .
Friends,
In the Phase-1 polls in AP, here’s my summary of the overall consensus in the local media (after I have done some adjusting for biases here and there).
Total MLA seats: 154
Maha Kutami- 85-90
INC-40-50
PRP-5
MIM-4
BJP-3
Lok Satta-1
Total MP seats:22
Maha Kutami-13
INC-5
PRP-2
MIM-1
BJP-1
____________
YSR’s cheap divisive comments about formation of Telangana posing a danger to Rayalaseema and Andhra are being seen by every one as ‘acceptance’ of defeat in Phase-1 by YSR.No need of any exit polls when the CM himself betrays his true feelings.
However , I would not attach too much importance to Eenadu reports on PRP cutting into INC votes in North Andhra.IMO, PRP seems to have cut equally into vote banks of both parties.A seat-by-seat analysis will give us the best indicators.
I have looked at some imporrtant constituencies in N.Andhra (Lok Sabha) and it is evident that cross-voting between MLA and MP polls is also a factor.
-In Vizag, the fight is mainly between INC (Purandareshwari) and TDP( MVVS Murthy), but the moot point is, what impact did the PRP and BJP candidates have on the final results?
-In Anakapalle, traditionally TDP has done well.But this time the main fight seems to be between PRP and INC.
_______________________________
Eenadu reports about TDP gaining ground even in Kadapa dist (home dist of YSR), are true.But YSR might still win both MP seats from the dist for Congress.But he may lose 4 out of 9 MLA seats to TDP.
Interestingly, more than N.Andhra, it is in Rayalseema districts where PRP is hitting Congress hard, especially in urban areas.
Take Kadapa town MLA seat for example.Congress has fielded sitting MLA Ahmadullah, for TDP it is Sivananda Reddy who has lost for the last 2 times, and would have lost again.But PRP has fielded another Muslim candidate, and suddenly TDP’s chances have become very bright.CBN has waited till the last day to declare his candidates, and the strategy seems to be paying off in around 20-25 constituencies across the State.
_____________
After the Phase-1 in AP, BJP leaders are confident of securing wins in atleast 2 LS seats and 5 MLa seats.Yesterday, Chevella saw heavy cross-voting in BJP’s favor.
Talk of Hyd city and suburbs yesterday was on Lok Satta.A large number of IT crowd, people living in colonies and apartment complexes, residents of many upmarket communities, seem to have voted for Lok Satta.People are expecting Lok Satta chief JP Narayan to win from Kuktapally MLA seat and are also giving good chances to their candidate from Jubilee Hills constituency.
_____________________
Talk on the street: YSR used his Bellary BJP Reddy friends to encourage BJP to put up candidates in as many MLA and MP seats as possible.Some monetary help may also have been routed to them.The aim was to split as many anti-congress votes as possible. CBN encouraged BSP to do the same, thus cutting into INC’s dalit votes to some extent (around 5,000-10,000 votes in each segment).
Finally, I feel it is premature on part of Kutami to celebrate.YSR is down but still in the picture.
But, NDA can heave a sigh of relief and peg Congress seats from AP at 15 at best.
I don’t get the logic of TN BJP. What is the point in aligning with losers like Sarath Kumar, karthik and T R. All these three are jokers and they would reduce the credibility of BJP in the state.
It pains me to see that BJP is aligned with T R. I think the higher ups in the party have to focus on TN BJP and make amends for 2014. There is a need to develop the party on its own than depending on these jokers.
When it comes to AP, I have interacted with some of the so called BPL families who are going to benefit from the schemes that political parties are offering, this is in Hyderabad region.
I see a clear bias towards CBNs cash transfer scheme. My maid got a house under Rajeev Swagruha scheme but she says, CBNs scheme is more attractive and futuristic.
On the other side, the migrant labor from Godavari districts show a clear bias towards PRP. But, I don’t think that bias is so high that PRP can sweep telangana region.
Over all, I see lot of swing towards TDP and Mahakutami, and I have not met a single BPL guy who voted for Congress.
The disappointing thing is, some of the parents of my Brahmin friends. They voted for congress saying that congress is good for govt employees.I see them and they remind me of Lemmings that commit mass suicide. I don’t understand these Hindus who vote for anti-hindu and anti- India congress. God ( that they believe in) save them !!!!
Humdinger,
I agree with you about Govt employees wanting to vote Congress because of 6th pay commission etc.And State govt employees prefer Congress because under Cong rule, they don’t have to work hard and easy money can be made thru systematic corruption.Among the youth, except for university educated dhimmis and youngsters who read only ToI and DC, want to vote for Congress because BJP is not good for ‘peace’.
But slowly even these sections will see the truth about Congress.We badly need a hi-quality TV channel that builds a right wing consensus.
Friends,
In the Phase-1 polls in AP, here’s my summary of the overall consensus in the local media (after I have done some adjusting for biases here and there).
Total MLA seats: 154
Maha Kutami- 85-90
INC-40-50
PRP-5
MIM-4
BJP-3
Lok Satta-1
Total MP seats:22
Maha Kutami-13
INC-5
PRP-2
MIM-1
BJP-1
YSR’s cheap divisive comments about formation of Telangana posing a danger to Rayalaseema and Andhra are being seen by every one as ‘acceptance’ of defeat in Phase-1 by YSR.No need of any exit polls when the CM himself betrays his true feelings.
However , I would not attach too much importance to Eenadu reports on PRP cutting into INC votes in North Andhra.IMO, PRP seems to have cut equally into vote banks of both parties.A seat-by-seat analysis will give us the best indicators.
I have looked at some imporrtant constituencies in N.Andhra (Lok Sabha) and it is evident that cross-voting between MLA and MP polls is also a factor.
-In Vizag, the fight is mainly between INC (Purandareshwari) and TDP( MVVS Murthy), but the moot point is, what impact did the PRP and BJP candidates have on the final results?
-In Anakapalle, traditionally TDP has done well.But this time the main fight seems to be between PRP and INC.
Eenadu reports about TDP gaining ground even in Kadapa dist (home dist of YSR), are true.But YSR might still win both MP seats from the dist for Congress.But he may lose 4 out of 9 MLA seats to TDP.
Interestingly, more than N.Andhra, it is in Rayalseema districts where PRP is hitting Congress hard, especially in urban areas.
Take Kadapa town MLA seat for example.Congress has fielded sitting MLA Ahmadullah, for TDP it is Sivananda Reddy who has lost for the last 2 times, and would have lost again.But PRP has fielded another Muslim candidate, and suddenly TDP’s chances have become very bright.CBN has waited till the last day to declare his candidates, and the strategy seems to be paying off in around 20-25 constituencies across the State.
After the Phase-1 in AP, BJP leaders are confident of securing wins in atleast 2 LS seats and 5 MLa seats.Yesterday, Chevella saw heavy cross-voting in BJP’s favor.
Talk of Hyd city and suburbs yesterday was on Lok Satta.A large number of IT crowd, people living in colonies and apartment complexes, residents of many upmarket communities, seem to have voted for Lok Satta.People are expecting Lok Satta chief JP Narayan to win from Kuktapally MLA seat and are also giving good chances to their candidate from Jubilee Hills constituency.
Talk on the street: YSR used his Bellary BJP Reddy friends to encourage BJP to put up candidates in as many MLA and MP seats as possible.Some monetary help may also have been routed to them.The aim was to split as many anti-congress votes as possible. CBN encouraged BSP to do the same, thus cutting into INC’s dalit votes to some extent (around 5,000-10,000 votes in each segment).
Finally, I feel it is premature on part of Kutami to celebrate.YSR is down but still in the picture.
But, NDA can heave a sigh of relief and peg Congress seats from AP at 15 at best.
Kumar
Will TDP dump the left and join BJP if NDA emerges as the single largest party?
Unfortunately BJP has a tag of a “communal” party attached to it. Black MGR wants the minority votes also (to be an actual spoiler against ADMK alliance.)
This may explain why he spurned the BJP offer.
He is sure to benefit the DMK alliance!
http://yackthoo.wordpress.com/2009/04/14/what-express-wont-tell-you/
Guys, a blog somebody has started to vent his / her frustration against Indian mainstream media
Non-serious, creative writing. Great read
Title of the blog “yackthoo” says it all
Couldn’t resist posting this, from “Yackthoo” blog post
Indian Express is one of those newspapers that loved this foetus story, because Indian Express is a newspaper that likes to demonstrate to you, the gentle reader, that it is an entity that can get “morally” “outraged” at a moment’s notice. Back in those glorious, pre-2004 days of Gujarat riot reporting, Express was getting outraged every second day. Outraged generally about something or the other, but outraged especially if the subject matter involved sacred topics such as secularism, liberalism, multiculturalism, motherhood-ism and apple-pie-ism. It is far less outraged these days, because the demand-supply dynamics of Padma Sri and Padma Bhushan awards has vastly improved on the supply side.
G,
Good question.My reading of CBN’s mind is as good as yours. But lemme try to paint the scenario which may drive TDP towards NDA.
BJP emerges as single largest party and NDA is single largest pre-poll alliance.CBN will hold his cards and watch the Left.If the Left proposes that all ’secular’parties support a Govt involving Congress (either join the Govt or support from outside), CBN will have a reason/excuse (anti-congress)to support NDA.
If CBN is dependent on Left to form govt in AP, his hands will be tied. But if just TRS+TDP get simple majority, CBN may be fine with TRS joining NDA, but restricting TDP to issue-based support to NDA in the interests of stable govt at the centre, and also ‘leverage to fulfil AP’s demands for more funds.
If Cong gets well below 120 LS seats, loses power in AP, and PRP gets around 7 seats in AP, NDA can count those as well.But PRP will sell those seats at a premium.
So, theoretically, apart from Cong+Left+MIM seats, NDA can be hopeful of remaining seats in AP (22 out of 42).
However all bets are off if Cong+PRP are within striking distance of power in AP assembly, and UPA and NDA end up with roughly same no.of seats in the LS.UPA will then be capable of wooing TRS, Left and PRP to its side.
So, lets hope for resounding victory for TDP! AP has truly become a bell-weather State in 2004 and 2009.
If congies come back to power it will be a disaster for India. I can’t stand the thought of Sonia-MMS as PM and Mullah-yalam, Lalu, commies etc again ruling the nation.
Kumar
If TDP falls short of majority in the assembly and takes the support of left to form govt there in that scenario will they support a congress led government at the centre since they have to survive with left support in AP?
Hi friends,
I am from gujarat and here you can count minimum of 22 seats and max will be 25. There are reason behind it, like current congress stronghold is only anand, kheda, dahod, chotaudepur seats. out of these 4 seats NCP and BSP is also contesting in 3 and in one seat only BSP. So these will definately hurts congress. And finally recent comments from Chidu and our PM regarding Gujarat riots and modi will definately make big impact.
Finally if voting percentage in Gujarat will above 60 then definately 25 BJP and if it is below 50 ( as in the case of 2004 (45%)) , then BJP-22.
So cheers up.
Tense Lalu wants repoll, Rudy wears confident look
http://www.dailypioneer.com/170043/Tense-Lalu-wants-repoll-Rudy-wears-confident-look.html
G,
I do not think that CBN would support a congress led govt at the center under any circumstances. It is more to do with the origin of the TDP than anything else. If he supports Congress led govt at the center now, he would not be able to face the people of AP from next elections.
If CBN falls short of majority and needs support from some party, he would try to get it from anyone but not a deal with congress at the center.
Totally agree with Humdinger.I don’t see any possibility of TDP supporting UPA or even be part of a 3rd front govt with outside support from Cong.
The more important question is: what would it take for TDP seats to go with NDA/support NDA govt from outside. As mentioned in my previous comment, this will need the Left to blink first and rush into a post-poll alliance with Congress.
On a different note, we don’t know how far YSR will succeed in arousing fears about Telangana in the eyes of rayalaseema and Andhra people.But one thing is clear: Even if BJP forms the next Govt and TRS becomes a part of it, getting Telangana state won’t be easy because YSR has now made it a ‘fight over resources’ issue for the rest of the State.
Yoss,
I don’t know how media can miss this incident. During y’day’s polling in Hyderabad, the MIM MP Owasi was seen beating up people with a stick in his hand. This was shown live in many local news channels and you can see the photo of the same in the 2nd page of today’s Eanadu.
Isn’t this something to be worried about as a nation and should be reported in the secular media which claims to be the holiest of them all?
had it been some BJP/SS MP beating up muslim voters?
the fact that mainstream media, with the exception of Headline Today, completely ignored the MIM incident in Hyderabad itself speaks volumes of their agenda
Did not know CNN IBN’s obsession with BJP and Advani would stoop so low. Check this headline
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/oops-advani-calls-osama-obama-bin-laden/90481-37.html
Narendra Modi visits the most backward district in the country, Chamarajanagar. Way to go! One has to read this article fully.
http://www.thehindu.com/2009/04/17/stories/2009041757210300.htm
Perhaps Modi will also loose power in state and become a union minister i six months!!
More problems for YSR now. A no-holds-barred attack is started by his own party members, senior congress leaders of Telangana V. Hanumantha Rao and M. Satyanarayana Rao, for his Telangana comments and warned the matter will be taken to Sonia Gandhi. These internal squabbles could sabotage the second phase of polls too. National leaders like Venkaiah Naidu too joins the bandwagon in criticizing YSR for his malicious comments.
I don’t think people will fall for it. I have a feeling it is going to backfire and not fetch much votes even though his attack surely invokes emotions and thoughts.
Even Raman singh visited a town which everyone beleives will end up in cm loosing power.
Modi though does not visit a village in gujarat with such sentiment because it is associated with the presiding deity of the temple abd a curse issued, that even kings did not visit. The villagers dont allow modi to come. he just addressess the village at about a 3km distance from it.
Kumar,
Will the kutamil be able to pick up atleast 50 of the 144 seats in next phase or will it be a sweep for congress and it ending up picking 80 seats.
If kutami is able to pick 50 seats, congress is doomed and cant come to power.
also among the 20 LS who much congress is expected to pick up.
Anup,
This is what was expected. The telengana congress leders were creating rucksus, even when ysr did not openly say something like that, now it will be more. If he continues, it will be difficult for him to hold his flock from telengana together after elections.
Arjun,
This is promise of reason person reasons behind his projections.
I accept that there was a higher turnout – but it was mostly in rural / semi rural areas. For eg. The 3 constituencies BJP was strong
Varanasi polled only 46-48% against 55% last time. If we go further deeper the poll percentage was very high (around 60%), in Muslim dominated areas of Varanasi, like Bajardiha, Pili Kothi, Madanpura, Lallapura, Nai Sadak, Dal Mandi, etc. To make matters worse, the state police was allegedly supporting the BSP’s muscleman Mukhtar Ansari. The central forces are conspicuously absent, other than in polling booths. SP had fielded a sitting BJP MLA Ajai Rai who would cut into BJP’s votes. This is because they feel that Muktar Ansari would rejoin SP once the Lok Sabha results are out.
In Gorakhpur anti incumbency against sitting BJP MP has peaked. Local VHP leaders are reluctant to campaign for him. Manoj Tiwari of SP is going great guns.
Violence unleashed by Adityanath in Bansgaon has created problems for BJP in this area. Initially it was seen as a “polarization” but slowly the haze had cleared. BSP has an upper hand.
Jharkhand : It is the JVM factor coupled with ground level alliance problems of BJP-JD(U), that is causing problems. In fact ground level BJP leaders admit that they had miscalculated the ground level reality and were too overconfident.
In Hazaribagh, Braj Kishore Jaiswal (ex BJP MLA) is cutting into the votes of BJP. Shivlal Mahto (JMM) and Saurav Singh (INC) are perceived to be weak and are unable to cut into CPI votebank. CPI’s B.P.Mehta is holding on to his committed base. In 2004, he had defeated Yashwant Sinha by a margin of 1.2 lakhs. During 1998 & 1999, JMM had supported the BJP in this seat, resulting in the victory of Yashwant Sinha.
Inder Singh Namdhari (IND) is going strong in Chatra. Chances are that he may eventually rejoin JD(U)/BJP after the polls.
Koderma would go to Babulal Marandi of JVM. Palamau it is advantage RJD+. They had concentrated on this seat for the past 4 months. Khunti and Loherdaga are toss ups.
Maharashtra : Local level anti incumbency against local MPs is very high in Vidharba. Loan waiver and MSP of cotton have really worked on the ground.
% polling in these region in 2004 was around 55% but NDA won 10 of the 11 seats, whereas in 1998 the % was 45-47% and undivided INC (NCP was a part) won 9 seats in the region. 1999 cannot be taken into consideration as NCP/INC fought separately. Hence I beg to differ from the TOI article.
But the positive point in Maharashtra is that the tide is slowly turning in favour of NDA in Mumbai-Pune-Thane belts and Central Maharasthra (26 seats). NDA may win around 15-17 in this region as per latest reports PROVIDED they work hard. They had won 9 seats last time. So I guess that the losses in Vidharba and Konkan may be compensated in this region if NDA works hard. But the reality is that ground level mistrust beween BJP & SHS is also quite high especially after Sharad Pawar overtures. This is the reason that Uddhav Thackarey was forced to criticize Sharad Pawar to give a stern message to his cadres.
Bihar : I had mentioned in my initial projections that Lalu is holding his ground but LJP votes are shifting to the NDA. This is exactly what is happening at the ground level. Most of the seats in Phase I were erstwhile RJD strongholds. Swing for NDA would come in the subsequent phases.
Yes, I accept the Chapra would be tough for Lalu. In fact, he had visualized this and chose to fight from Madhepura also.
Chattisgarh : Again I repeat local level anti-incumbency against sitting MPs is peaking. BJP has miscalculated on this issue by nominating sitting MPs. Remember, during Assembly polls 35% of sitting MLAs were replaced and BJP emerged victorious.
Orissa : This was on expected lines. Results would be (+/-) 2 seats for INC.
But in Chattisgarh, bjp replaced 4 sitting MP’s and jude and another person were in diofferent const. BJP changed sitting MP’s, so I dont know what he is saying.
NR,
Some guys on bharat rakshak are revising the INC estimate downwards to about 15 LS seats.
What about the Hyderabad seat?There was low turnout and allegations from MIM about BJP & TDP understanding.
indiatoday.intoday.in/election2009/index.php?issueid=&id=37241&option=com_content&task=view§ionid=90&secid=0
this is on eastern UP BJP prospects.
NR,
Yes, Kutami should be able to pickup another 50-55 seats from Phase-2; we can expect PRP also to win around 20-25 from Phase-2, leaving Congress with around 70 at best. It is going to be a photo finish unless TDP does spectacularly and bags 70+ from the remaining 144.
LS seats in Phase-2:Cong is better placed in LS seats than in Assembly.Still, at best they look like winning 11 out of the remaining 20.
In Uttar Pradesh, not known for high turnout, 48%-50% polling took place in eastern part of the state. But variation in polling within constituencies due to communal polarisation can upset many stalwarts
another report
It seems their optimism flowed from the long queues before polling booths in rural UP. On the other hand, the low turnout in towns and cities has set the alarm bells ringing in BJP, whose support base lies in urban areas.
In high-profile Varanasi, where BSP strongman Mukhtar Ansari is facing BJP stalwart Murli Manohar Joshi, polling was recorded at 44%. Ansari, who is accused of killing BJP MLA Krishnand Rai, was in his cell in the Kanpur jail while his fellow candidates from BJP, SP and Congress were present in the pilgrim town. In Varanasi, SP candidate Ajay Rai claimed that he was confident of victory. Once a hardcore lieutenant of the saffron brigade, Rai represented the Kolasala assembly constituency here thrice as BJP MLA. He joined SP when BJP denied him a ticket. If Rai has indeed performed well as he claims, he might have substantially damaged Joshi’s prospects.
TOI
Paras 1 and 3 make it clear along with other reports now, that Joshi in all probability has lost.
He made a mistake by picking a seat which did not deserve his services. Shame on those people who stayed indoors. Anti-BJP camp votes enblock while pro BJP camp sits home and even those who visit sometimes experiment.
NR
Why doesnt Rajni come out openly in support of BJP? Shatrughan had mentioned he will talk of supporting BJP some months back but now I read that Rajni is keeping mum on this issue.
Financial times article by razeen sally deflates manmohan claims of great performance, handling of economy and strong willed leadership.
Kasabh proves modi right. Wants to rretarct confession saying it was forced.
Sorry. Kasabh proves modi right. Wants to retract confession saying it was forced
Ofcourse it was forced and tomorrow rest assured he will become a messiah for pseudos all over. Already some people are saying it was due to poverty and circumstances he was forced to kill other people. There are many intellectuals who are arguing for his pardon and this will only pick up momentum in the days to come. We should be ashamed of ourselves and our judicial system that a person who has killed so many would perhaps walk free one day.
Has the rajasthan dgp been removed?
dGP meena is the brother of union minister meena and the union minisyter narayan is contesting. when ec was asked before candidates were announced, ec said it willdecide afyer candidates were announced. ec should have taken sou moto action but did not. A complaint was made 5 some time back by bjp and yet i have not seen news of his removal or asking for alternate names.
But in Gujarat an IPS officer was removed promptly from election duty as he was brother of bjp candidate contesting somewhere else.
http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14611&cat=15&scat=39
Now this is neednt be taken as gosple, but if it is true donot be shocked, BJP may spring surprise in Telanagana
[...] Offstumped [...]
Regarding the TDP;’s post-poll scenarios. Only the following can be ruled out:
1. TDP supporting a Congress-led government.
The following are plausible:
1. TDP supports Third Front, participates in ministry, allows the Congress to support the Third Front from outside. This happened in 1996.
2. If TDP comes to power on its own or if it cannot cobble up a majority even with the support of the CPI, CPM, then it will support a BJP government from the outside. The cock-and-bull excuse being ‘we have to keep the Congress out of power.’
3. If getting its hands on power requires it to jettison the Left, it will.
We must remember this axiom in Indian politics: ‘Any regional party will try to emerge in a post-poll scenario at a point from where it can travel to any other point on the national political equilibrium.’ Sounds complex? It means: All is fair in pursuit of power. so a matchup between BJP and SP or BJP and RJD are not so outlandish as they may sound now.
That’s the reason why we should all jettison regional parties. They represent no constituency but that of the reigning family.
Some number analysis again from promise of reason blog in response to original analysis
So arjun this should offset your fears.
promiseofreason.com/9-northern-states-prepoll-prediction-by-raja/comment-page-2/#comment-2812
1) JMM had never supported BJP/NDA at any time, either in 1998 or in 1999. I am seeing election commission declared results which clearly show Shibu Soren contesting and losing against Babulal Marandi in 1998. JMM had also fielded candidates against almost all NDA candidates in 1999 as well. Last time, it was the ganging up of LJP, RJD, Congress and the JMM on the NDA that defeated the NDA. Given that this time, the UPA has fractured and that JMM and RJD-LJP are fielding candidates against the INC, the Congress will be hard pressed to retain its advantage. Further, except in Lohardaga and Khunti, it is a multi-cornered con test in every single constituency that went to polls yesterday. RJD, CPI and JMM have all fielded their candidates against the official Congress candidates in every single constituency except Khunti and Lohardaga.
2) In 1998, in Maharashtra, it was the alliance with the various RPI factions that helped the undivided Congress in Vidarbha. In fact, the Congress led alliance won all 11 of the 11 seats. Gawai, Prakash Ambedkar and others of the RPI had won in Vidarbha. No such alliance exists this time. The RPI has its own base and there is no way the Congress can wrest the RPI base from it.
3) The polling percentage in 1998 was between 50 and 69% in Vidarbha, except for Nagpur (where it was 36%). Given that the RPI votes added to the Congress, it is not surprising that it resulted in the defeat of the BJP and SHS.
4) Last time, polling percentage in Varanasi was 42%. The BSP and the SP were in fourth and fifth positions.
5) In Hazaribagh, the CPI had polled 23% and 26% of the votes respectively in 1996 and 1998, when the current sitting MP, Bhubaneshwar Prasad Mehta last contested. In 1999, when the RJD put up its candidate and CPI had fielded someone other than Bhubaneshwar Prasad Mehta, it got 9% of the vote. On the other hand, whenever the JMM (one or more of the JMM factions) fielded a candidate here, the JMM has polled about 15-20% of the vote. There is a JMM candidate this time as well.
6) In Palamau, last time it was the `friendly fight’ between the BJP and the JD(U) that finished it off. Together, the BJP+JD(U) vote is much greater than the RJD candidate’s vote. This time, the BJP has left the seat to the JD(U). I am not so sure that the RJD will be able to retain the seat this time, given that the JMM is fielding a candidate against it and there is no divided opposition.
7) In Chhattisgarh, of the eleven candidates, the BJP has changed six of them. Only 5 of the 10 elected last time have been renominated this time. That means a 50% replacement. Don’t see your anti-incumbency, I am afraid.
In Maharashtra, in the Vidarbha region, the ShivSena-BJP alliance has replaced 4 of the ten MPs it had last time. The fifth, the candidate for Nagpur, has also been changed. As for the loan waiver working, you are sadly mistaken. The poorest of the poor, who are committing suicide, are not doing so because they borrowed money from the banks. They are committing suicides because they borrowed loans from the local money lenders. This is the irony – the local money lenders are usually the better off farmers, often borrow money from banks to lend it to poorer farmers. They are collecting twice now – once via the loan waiver and once from the poorer farmers, who often do repay the loans they take.
9) In Bihar, of the 13 seats that went to polls yesterday, let me provide you with a seatwise analysis of the previous 4 Lok Sabha elections. For the sake of convenience, I have marked even the old Bihar JD as RJD (almost the entire Bihar state unit of the JD migrated to become RJD).
Gopalganj – RJD twice (96, 04), NDA twice (98, 99)
Siwan – RJD all four times
Maharajganj – NDA all four times
Saran – NDA twice (96, 99), RJD twice (98, 04)
Arrah – NDA once (99), RJD thrice
Buxar – NDA all four times
Sasaram – NDA thrice, Cong (Meira Kumar) once (04).
Karakat (mostly old Bikramganj) – NDA twice (98, 04), RJD twice (96, 99)
Jahanabad – RJD twice (98, 04), CPI once (96), NDA once (99)
Aurangabad – Congress twice (99, 04), NDA once (98), RJD once (96)
Gaya – NDA twice (98,99), RJD twice (96, 04)
Nawada – NDA twice (96, 99), RJD twice (98, 04)
Jamui – new seat.
From the above, you can see that except for Siwan and (and to an extentArrah), none of the others are remotely RJD strongholds. In fact, it is a well known fact that the real Lalu strongholds lie north of the Ganga, while the elections yesterday were mostly concentrated south of the Ganga. If RJD is doing very well in its weak points, then the NDA is doomed in Bihar. But I don’t think the RJD did well in yesterday’s election. The JD(U)-BJP leaders were happy about the Bihar outcome (of course, they could be bluffing, but I don’t think so). Of yesterday’s 13 seats in Bihar, I would give RJD 3-4, and the rest to NDA
Vijay infact the person raj from promise of reason has now been consistently saying for last two months that bjp will get 3-5 from AP this time.
Infact yesterday he said
Already The Reports are Pouring in That Secunderabad and Malkajgiri Lok Sabha Constituencies are in BJP’s Kitty and that Owaissi of MIM is losing in Hyderabad Parliamentary Cosntituency as Most of The Hindus(Despite being STRONG BJP Loyalists in Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency) have Voted for Zahid Ali Khan Saheb in Parliamentary Elections.
BJP Purposely fielded A Dummy Candidate this time in yderabad Lok Sabha Seat to Ensure MIM’s Defeat.
In Chevella and Vissakhapatnam Lok Sabha Seats too, BJP is having an Edge.
Higher Turnout in Northern Telangana is Good News for BJP.
He has also qouted some assembly seats where BJp is expected to win and other LS seats were BJP is good enough to give a run for getting scond place. You can take a look.
So this election the probability that kerala alone will be zero zone seems to high. contesting alone BJP is now sure to win seats in AP, TN and WB.
An example of how deep in shit Indian Journalism is. No prizes for guessing that this standard has been set by Congress News Network.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/oops-advani-calls-osama-obama-bin-laden/90481-37.html
“Mumbai: In a glaring slip of tongue, Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate L K Advani on Friday uttered the name “Obama bin Laden” instead of the infamous Osama bin Laden but quickly corrected himself.”
When British jerk (I don’t even remember his name) linked Kashmir and 26/11 we protested. Now the public prosecutor seems to be taking the same line of thought where he is linking 26/11 with Kashmir.
Hope Chidambaram does not come out and say it was a clerical error tomorrow
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/mumbai-attack-was-plot-to-weaken-india/90511-3.html
“Mumbai: The ultimate motive behind the November 26 Mumbai terror attacks was to weaken, subvert and destabilise the Indian government with a view to capturing Kashmir, a special court in Mumbai was informed.”
Indian media is hitting rock bottom…there is no sense in this discussion..even fruits and vegetables with no reasoning power can understand in what context modiji said ABT ‘BUDIYA’ AND GUDIYA… but sadly the media is dumb beyond imagination..
http://o3.indiatimes.com/mytimes/archive/2009/04/16/4964392.aspx
BJP is setting a wrong precedent in WB.For the sake of one seat they are damaging their prospects in the rest of the state.They have taken support not only from the gorkhaland party by promising a seperate state but also from the two Kamtapur parties.In fact one of the kamtapur parties had a
militia till a few years ago.
A comment from IBNLIVE. Couldn’t have said it better.
“The BJP should be very aggressive on election campaign for the next 3 weeks it should be more proactive and vocal in its campaign and should not be entrapped into personal tit for tats with the leaders of congress party (let the congress attack BJP leaders personally and suffer the negative consequences in elections). The BJP and its leaders should CONDUCT A HIGH DECIBEL CAMPAIGN for the remaining 4 phases of polls and should launch an aggressive attack on the congress and other regional parties, the BJP should strongly ATTACK THE UPA GOVERNMENT FOR ITS FAILURES TO CHECK PRICE RISE, TERRORISM, NAXALISM, CORUPTION IN ALL MAJOR MINISTRIES (especially in TELECOM, RAILWAYS, SHIPPING AND SURFACE TRANSPORT, FINANCE, etc.). The BJP should leave no stone unturned in highlighting THE ALL ROUND FAILURES OF THE UPA GOVERNMENT.”
Hi All, Talked to a first time voter and she said she voted for an “educated” candidate. I think the newbies are just wasting their votes. Could even be causing damage to BJP’s chances. Maybe BJP needs to somehow educate this vote bank
about the party.
Although it was great to know people have started believing in the system enough to participate. I think the various campaigns are doing their bit.
Not sure high voter turnout will improve BJPs chances.
@ counterview. The real reason for the mangalore incident being played on and on was not for anything else but to play on the insecurities of the young voters mind,
see the politicsparty.com analysis… It gives 170 for BJP and 222 for NDA, similarly 99 for congress and 125 for UPA. I don’t know where he gets his numbers.
Vijay,
Very true. If you had visited the facebook page of Loose group, it was like a campaign site against BJP. But once in a while there were few messages like SM Krishna was saviour he would not have allowed this and other bullshit. (The site has been hacked and no longer exists)
But the loose group blogspot is also defunct now.
A simple but critical law that requires all news organizations operating primarily from and in India to be
(i) wholly Indian owned,
(ii) majority public shareholding – as in common stock traded on desi bourses, and
(iii) limiting promoter influence by having the top single owner (or family) to at most 10% of the gross shareholding
will go a looong way in improving dhimmedia’s memory, intelligence, responsibility, transparency and accountability – to the people and the Republic, not to the govt of the day, mind you.
JMTPs.
Sud
Yossarin, it is not Jagdish Tytler with his brother. I think, it is Sajjan Kumar with his brother Ramesh Kumar.
News Flash —— Pakistan stripped of cricket world cup holding right for 2011
Here may be some anti-national tactics:
1) First phase of polling held where BJP is not too strong.
2) Spread the rumor (fear among minorities) through anti-national media that BJP is leading, people are voting for the BJP.
3) Then in next phases of elections where BJP is strong, BJP voters will beccome lazy saying “ok now BJP is leading, no need to vote.”…but minorities will be out in full force to vote against BJP.
So…BJP voters should not fell in this trap led by anti-national components.
Drummasala,
What is the feedback from Vidarbha-Marathwada ? Is it UPA sweep like what the POR person was saying ? Or is it even ? TOI says that UPA leaders were expecting 4-5 in Vidarbha.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm7v3GUzzyk
MIM leader beating voters.
Why no outcry from secular media??
All, Is there any way to check electoral rolls in UP? To get your booth and serial number details? There was a site 122.160.111.63/searchlkoroll/ but its no longer working.
Isnt what YSR doing also promoting enemity between people of different regions, which may lead to rioting and regional disharmony.
Why is the EC not issuing notice and why national media is sitting silent on this.
@ NR AP EC has accepted the complaint
further analysis from site vijay gave
greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14613&cat=&scat=39
@ drummsala Owaisi Surrenders to police and released on Bail
Chiranjeevi’s challenge if he gets less than 165 Seats good bye to politics
Excellent analysis by Prafull Goradia http://www.dailypioneer.com/170105/Nurturing-communalism.html
What all chandrababu has to do to counter ysr bogey, is get his news papers to write reports as analyst saying that,TDP forming govt is clear due to clean sweep in telengana, but creation of telengana or influence of TRS will depend on TDP numbers. Higher numbers TDP get from ANdhra rayalseema will mean little influence of TRS on TDP.
That would mean voters voting more for tdp than congress and ysr telengana bogey itself would then trap him.
Thats all is required to finish off congress in state. Once that happens, and also if TDP gets sizeable chunk in kadapa, YSR unquestioned authority in state congress will be in trouble due to congress known factionalism.
At this rate probability for lalu and chiranjeevi to bid goodbye seems possible.
Counterview
Thanks for the article.
Gurumurthy exposes congress on swiss bank
expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Unquestioned+loot&artid=rYnAPNoGwgw=&SectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&MainSectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&SEO=BJP+leader+L+K+Advani&SectionName=aVlZZy44Xq0bJKAA84nwcg==
YSR and rahul seek divine intervention in Tirupati.
I really want to check the register to see if they all sign saying that they have faith in HIM.
CBN rubs it in
He (YSR) is trying to provoke regional feelings. He bows before a foreigner from Italy but talking in such an irresponsible way about his own people,
candidates start to make constituency level manifestos.
This shows the increasing localisation.
It was virudhunagar dmdk candidate who came yesterday with news of him preparing a local manifesto but bjp’s jagdish mukhi pips him by releasing a 50 page manifesto.
this again shows bjp leaders are advanced in their approach.
CNN-IBN’s piece on Modi was a sham. They said Gujarat had electricity and water, and then not everybody is getting and showed some Mozi claiming she was being discriminated for her religion.
Then they went onto say Modi was claiming all successes in Gujarat was his,
But even CNN-IBN had to show some positives….
Tomorrow, it is about Rahul fake Gandhi. I hope they just stick to licking his feet only,
hmm … whats wrong in YSR’s speech? BJP shud be ashamed of its support to Telangana. What will Modi or Gujarathi’s do if someone speaks of splitting the land of the Gujarathi’s? Or say Bal Thackeray about the creation of Vidharbha? Or Yeddyurappa on separate state for the Hyderabad Karnataka region?
YSR has been consistent in opposing Telangana. In this election seasion, he didn’t raise this issue till Telangana went to polls, which is elementary political tactics.
Balaji,
Why should BJP be ashamed of its Telengana stance? They’ve reiterated for long that they are supportive of smaller size states in general as a matter of principle.
I strongly believe the supersized behemoths like UP, AP, WB and MH are ripe for reorganization. Any state with 40+ LS seats is too big, basically, from a simple administrative POV. Why should some historically backward regions in large states be condemned to benign neglect forever?
IMO, as a rule of thumb, anybody should be able to bus it tot he state capital from anywhere in the state in under 8-10 hrs. States bigger than that are overstretched, IMO.
I am from coastal AP, now settled in Hyd and I support a separate Telengana if only because coastal AP will then get a chance to develop a top class capital city – a bezwada or vizag or Guntur maybe. And why not? And of these newly emergent small states (look at the examples of Uttaranchal, CT and JH), tell me the local people there aren’t better off having their capital and their own legislators close at hand?
Anyway, thats a whole other topic for another day.
-Sud
@Counterview,
Very high voter turnout in metros and big cities may not help the BJP. If media-brainwashed first time voters, self proclaimed liberals etc come out to vote,it will ofcourse only help the Congress.Further these are people who needed to be influenced by media campaigns to come out and vote , it is very likely then that they also go by the media when it comes to following news and forming opinions.
Another hypothesis I have is that more men are likely to vote BJP compared to women.(in cities)
However my guess is high turnouts in smaller cities, towns and semi-urban areas favours the BJP. In big cities and metros, a moderate turnout rather than a high turnout IMHO helps the BJP.
@Balaji,
I am all in favour of smaller states. Behemoths are ungovernable. The basis of organisation of states was linguistic. I don’t see why there should not be two Kannada speaking states, or two Telugu speaking states, or Bengali speaking states for that matter. The larger states usually have their chief ministers all coming from the largest population centres which, of necessity, forces other regions to suffer neglect. Rohilkhand in Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha in Maharashtra, Hyderabad-Karnataka in Karnataka, Kamtapur and Gorkhaland in West Bengal and Karbi Anglong in Assam are all examples of regions that are suffering from neglect, simply because they don’t have enough representatives in the state assembly to make them matter. Reorganisation of states is a very good idea, and would lead to some all round good. It would also make representatives more local and more answerable to the people. Now, states can afford to ignore entire regions and still win handsomely in the State Assemblies. And that is what is wrong with the present set up.
Regards,
Maidros
Sud,
I support smaller states too. But I believe linguistic and collective cultural history have their own benefits too. But anyway splitting a state is something the people of the concerned state should decide. Preferably thru consensus.
However BJP espousing Telangana is very cheap politics. What is BJP’s locus standi in deciding the fate of Andhra? It has a very small presence there. Forget Andhra, it doesn’t have a meaningful presence even in Telangana. People of Andhra have never trusted BJP with any worthwhile office. But suddenly BJP wants to champion the cause of splitting the state. A little humility and less opportunism is needed.
Balaji,
What YSR said is completely wrong. All along his stand was that he was not against T-state. And after voting is over in T areas he takes a complete U turn. Only a blind fan of YSR from the lawless lands of Rayalaseema can support him.
This state saw severe violence on the same issue earlier. As an engineer of 90s riots in Hyderabad he knows very well the impact his statements are going to have. He is a criminal and his genes are criminal (from that crook Raja Reddy) and it is indeed showing now.
BJP always supported T-state and they committed a mistake by going back on that promise during their love affair with TDP. The vaccum thus created was filled by TRS.
BJP wants to champion the cause of Telangana for votes. What is your problem??
Balaji,
Now it is clear that you don’t know history of BJP and RSS in T-area. They were strong before they aligned with TDP. BJP leaders used to be called ‘tigers’ in the twin-cities and surrounding areas – e.g. Tiger Narendra. Atleast for 30 years BJP has been espousing the cause of T-state.
Why just T-state, Venkaiah Naidu himself became a leader when after participated in ‘Separate Andhra’ (Pratyeka Andhra) movement.
State bifurcation is not a new issue. It is a 40+ year old issue.
BJP should take every opportunity to get votes. SAAM DAAM DANDA BHED. Every trick. If you do not like, then….take rest.
Maidros,
I did post some of your analysis here, it will be great if you can throw some more light on forthcoming phases. is there any change in projections you made for rajasthan based on recent developments.