Eminent Delhi based public intellectual and former member of the National Knowledge Commission Dr. Pratap Bhanu Mehta today wrote a curious op-ed in the Indian Express titled “The Politics of Hurt“.
This open letter is addressed to him with the intention of obtaining some answers.
Dear Dr. Mehta
It was interesting to note that public intellectuals such as yourself can take a political stance in public 48 hours before the nation goes to polls.
But then your political stance reflected in this op-ed in the Indian Express is curious for a couple of reasons.
It is clear that you definitely dont want to vote for the BJP. It is also clear that you definitely do want to vote for the Congress.
But then Sir where you are emphatic in your rejection of the BJP you betray no conviction at all in your endorsement of the Congress. In fact you dont even hazard to say in as many words that you support the Congress despite betraying your sentiments towards it.
Why Sir this intellectual timidity ?
Why Sir do you need to dedicate 95% of your column for the case against the BJP and leave only a few sentences to make a less than convincing case for the Congress ?
Why Sir do you need the BJP excuse to make your case for the Congress ?
In fact less troubling than your critique of the BJP is your curious case for the Congress.
What “idea” exactly Sir are you referring to when you say
They attack the Congress in the name of an idea of what the Congress should be.
Your hopes for the so called “ideal” the Congress represents would have carried far greater credibility and conviction if you had dedicated your column to describing that “ideal”, rather than dedicate the entire column to venting out your disgust towards the BJP and Mr. Advani.
In fact doing so you seem to betray emotions that suggest the exact opposite. You Sir seem to be more hurt and disappointed with the BJP than you are motivated and excited for the Congress.
I dont propose to make a case for the BJP in this letter but I find this suggestion by you even more curious
longevity of the Congress is a sign that there is something about it that is worth salvaging
If memory serves me right, the only occassion when this nation saw you take a public stance on principle and convictions was when you resigned from the National Knowledge Commission on the issue of OBC Reservations in Institutions of Higher Education.
The practice of Reservations in India is about as long as the post Independence Congress Party. So should we take it that your objections to OBC Reservations are at odds with this notion that longevity is somehow the yardstick for the worthiness of an idea.
If one were to extend the same longevity yardstick to just about every social ill from Dowry to Caste based identity politics that continue to survive in India, does their long life make them ideas worth salvaging ?
I dont want to even go into your selective defense of election time rhetoric from Sonia Gandhi, its less than honest and you know it. It would have been ok if you were transparent about your partisanship for one would have taken it as all is fair in war and elections.
But then Sir you purport to give intellectual cover to Sonia Gandhi’s partisanship while being less than forthright about it.
In doing so you Sir have diminished your standing as a Public Intellectual.
I am not troubled by your dismissal of the BJP’s next tier of leadership. But I am extremely troubled by your seeking hope in the next generation of the Congress’ leadership based on its age while leaving unstated your implicit endorsement of Rahul Gandhi as successor to Manmohan Singh.
It stumps me what idea and ideal you hope to salvage by taking comfort in the prospect that the heir apparent’s only claim to the top office are his last name and genes, is younger than his political rivals.
In closing let me just say that the danger to India is not from its illiterate masses in remote villages who may choose the BJP out of their own wisdom of lack of.
But the real danger Sir is from public intellectuals in New Delhi who lack the courage and conviction to be forthright in their partisanship and from those who seek to provide intellectual cover to sycophancy and subversion of the original intent of the Constitution.
Yours Sincerely
An Aam Admi who admires your occassional intellectual brilliance but is deeply disappointed with your lack of conviction.
Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Pratibha Patil, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat
Drummasala,
One more thing to note. Last time,in 2004, analysts were giving more seats to the Aghadi in Maharashtra than the Yuti. Even regarding Vidarbha they were saying that the 1999 tally of 5/11 for Yuti would go down because of Aghadi unity. But the BSP seriously cut into Aghadi votes and we know what happened. People seriously underestimate the BSP all the time. So, even now, the same kind of thing might happen. Maybe the aghadi wil gain 2-3 seats in Vidarbha but lose seats in other places – particularly Mumbai-Thane … around 27-28 for Yuti seems reasonable.
There seem to be reports even in the mainstream media of the congress not doing well in Andhra. Last time in 2004 people started put saying TDP sweep, and then such reports of TDP getting about only 15 seats came in. In the end, TDP was down to 5 seats. Even if INC is reduced to 15 seats in AP, it is a big setback. Here are my pessimistic NDA -optimistic INC estimates
NDA pessimistic
AP-1
Karnataka-17
Maharashtra-23
Gujarat-17
MP-23
Chattisgarh-9
Orissa-3
Jharkhand-6
Bihar-26
Assam+NE – 11
UP-16 (remeber RLD will gt some seats)
Rajasthan-10
Haryana-4
Delhi-2
Punjab-7 (after this Tytler thing…)
JK-1
Himachal-3
Uttarakhand-3
Goa-1
DNH-1
Total:184
Of which BJP~140
UPA optimistic.
AP-17
Karnataka-8
TN-13
Kerala-16
Maharashtra-25
Gujarat-9
MP-6
Chattisgarh-2
Orissa-8
Jharkhand-4
Bihar-1
UP-7
West Bengal-15
Assam+NE-6
Rajasthan-15
Delhi-5
Punjab-6
Haryana-6
Uttarakhand-2
Himachal-1
JK-3
Goa-1
Total:176 INC~135
SP+RJD+LJP- 40 seats
Left-35 seats
BSP-32
What do people think ?
Modi’s blog http://www.narendramodi.com/
http://deshgujarat.com/2009/04/14/narendra-modi-launches-his-blog/
Zahira Sheikh spent jailtime because she rejected Toasta’s lies.
Time Toasta Setalvad spent some time behind bars!
“An “alleged” plan to carry out a poison attack on IAS officers, senior government officials, visitors, and employees of the Gujarat state secretariat was foiled by an alert sweeper on Monday.”
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1247925
Biased DNA. What is alleged plan?
@Yossarin
Your questions are quite apt in this post. Mr. Mehta has indeed displayed occasional intellectual brilliance. And even I was surprised when I saw this piece of his in the express.
@ Yossarin
Can this Mass Murder plot in Gujarat be a terror attack ?? Or is is too early to say anything ?
Instead of Tosta better we use Twista.
BJP sees improvement in its prospects in UP
NEW DELHI: With just a day to go for the first phase of Lok Sabha polls, BJP claims there is an “interesting voter movement” in the crucial state of
Uttar Pradesh that accounts for the biggest chunk of 80 seats.
It sees the upper caste voters getting back to its camp after a tryst with Mayawati’s BSP in the last assembly polls.
The party’s effort to woo dalit voters, when BJP’s PM candidate L K Advani flagged off a Dalit Chetna Rath here on the occasion of B R Ambedkar’s birth anniversary on Tuesday, was also seen as an attempt to dent BSP’s dalit bastion in UP and beyond.
Also, taking on rival Congress, Advani said the party did not do justice to dalit icon Bhim Rao Ambedkar and ignored the late leader while nominating members to the Constituent Assembly.
“Today, we know that he was the maker of the Constitution. But this did not happen naturally. When Congress nominated around 290 members to the Constituent Assembly, his name was not there,” Advani said, adding, “When a leader from Bengal saw that his name was not there, he offered his seat. Ambedkar was then elected from Bengal and reached the Constituent Assembly.”
Referring to the entry of Ambedkar in the first council of ministers of independent India, Advani said, “It was on the suggestion of Mahatma Gandhi that (then PM) Jawaharlal Nehru inducted Ambedkar and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee in the first council of ministers… I can only imagine the reaction of Pandit Nehru,” Advani said, adding that the two leaders were staunch critics of the Congress.
BJP is also upbeat as it claims its campaign strategy to “project Advani as a strong leader as against a weak PM in Manmohan Singh” is working.
With the campaign for the first phase reaching a crescendo, Monday saw the entire top rung of the Congress leadership — Sonia, Rahul, Priyanka Gandhi and the PM — attacking Advani and trying to prove that he is a weak leader in a synchronised manner from across the country.
Reacting to the PM’s repeated attack on Advani in Mumbai on Monday after last Friday, the party’s key strategist for the polls, Arun Jaitley, said, “The Prime Minister seems to have developed a complex about Mr Advani. He has not made a single positive statement about his government. All his comments are Advani-centric.” The central issue now is “weak PM”, as Jaitley put it.
According to BJP’s calculations, Brahmin and Thakur votes consolidating in its favour will only add to its existing Vaishya votebank in UP. In the first phase on Thursday, voting will take place in 16 UP constituencies.
@ Z,
Forget about the “alleged plan”, in today’s NDTV headlines, they showed headlines as ‘Alleged 26/11 gunman Kasab”””. So, according to NDTV, it is still allegation that Kasab has killed so many..!!!
How about Comrade Prannoy Roy is described as “Alleged Jounralist and Suspected Evangelist”?
What are possibilities of a hung house in AP?, If it is a hung house, will YSR support CBN in exchange for his support at center?,
Or even worse, third rate front may prop a PM with support from party of fake Gandhis.
Even if BJP becomes single largest party, it won’t matter. Rubber stamp president will do all that is necessary to make sure it sits in opposition. All will be deemed fair in the name of secularism. Pimps of secularism, Rajdeep, Burkha and others will sing praises, after voicing some token disagreement over the blantant road rolling over people’s decision.
In closing let me just say that the danger to India is not from its illiterate masses in remote villages who may choose the BJP out of their own wisdom of lack of.
But the real danger Sir is from public intellectuals in New Delhi who lack the courage and conviction to be forthright in their partisanship and from those who seek to provide intellectual cover to sycophancy and subversion of the original intent of the Constitution.
YOSS
Well said.
once i read somewhere that “Educated THIEF” is more Dangerous than “Uneducated THIEF”
Un educated thief will just steal few bags from truck but Educated thief will Steal the TRUCK.
The only hope BJP has to come to power is if it gets 40 seats more than Congress and that is unlikely.
Dr. Mehta’s response to my post on INI blog
http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2009/04/15/open-letter-to-dr-pratap-bhanu-mehta/comment-page-1/#comment-44820
YOSS
Why making thse doormat intellectual a hero????
dont u know our PM is MAHATMA GANDHI as said by Priyanka Gandhi.
i was born in 72 so dont know if that gandhi was mahatma or not…but if our MMS is MAHATMA then thanks to god for hating that mahatma.
I didno knew that those who lack and cannot get the mandate of people is called MAHATMA
i didnot knew who deal with type Amar Singh is MAHATMA
i didnot knew who run govt on the basis of Purchasing Vote is MAHATMA
IF THE COURT CAN PUT “ZAHIRA SHEIKH” BEHIND BAR TO GIVING FALSE AFFIDAVIT THEN LAW EQUALITY SAYS THAT PEOPLE LIKE TEESTA,JAVED AKHTAR,SHABANA,PRANNOY,BARKHA,RAJDEEP TO NOW MUST BE IN JAIL.
I HOPE OUR LAW WILL NOT DISTINGUISH BETWEEN ZAHIRA a illiterate Women and these PADMASHRI who are LITERATE/INTELLECTUAL.
LET JUSTICE PREVAIL.
Now the real news is coming.. Congress is on a sticky wicket to retain power in AP.
election.rediff.com/report/2009/apr/15/loksabhapoll-alarming-news-for-the-congress-in-andhra.htm
The first phase of polling is in T-region, and North coastal where TDP is strong. I also went through the Telangana region recently and found that the only positive for YSR in the region is farmers getting free power. Telangana region is highly drought hit always, and farmers enjoyed free power for their agriculture for five years. Now they are not getting enough power everyday and that could be slightly negative in some pockets but by and large farmers should vote for YSR. Many will vote for Telangana too which means against YSR. Let’s wait until tomorrow night.
congratulations, that your write-ups are now being taken seriously by whoever concerned. we have now had4 instances in short span.
keep up the work of hard thought provking write-ups.
Now, chidambaram needs to answer this, despite his show of being very awake to naxal threat and intelligence warning of Tactical Counter Offensive
Campaign of naxals, why is it that we find serious naxal attacks across india.
we dont want the govt to tell us just information of threats, we want it root out the threat.
Yoss,
A humble request. Please don’t keep comments section open on both sites. Gets difficult to follow.
Arjun,
Given the news coming out of AP now, my middle estimates are
NDA-195
UPA-158 (with SP RJD LJP it will be 196)
The rest – 152 (of which left ~35)
So, anything can happen… Pessimism for BJP suporters is dangerous…
The map of troubled areas of india.
1.bp.blogspot.com/_l240WvbBfEs/R4TlIg30LEI/AAAAAAAAAxA/iTvL85HA1cA/S240/naxalwatch1.PNG
Satyaki,
we need to think of pessimistic scenario and work hard. If we end up thinking optimistic scenario, we will have repeat of 2004. It is this pessimistic scenario, thats going to drive the bjp supporters to booths on D-day.
satyaki, after the assembly elections I have learned not to believe in the best case.
If I turn out to be wrong, I will be more than happy.
Once BJP spreads to AP, TN and WB, then by default it will pull ahead of Congress.
Congress inspite of doing badly will get 125 seats plus because of its large base.
Once BJP increases its hold in new states and makes a comeback in UP, nothing can stop them.
The news coming out of UP from multiple sources is good. Looking for some good gains there.
Yossarin, congrats mate! Your responses are also playing role in this Election debate. Like NM yesterday raised the issue about the mosque that burnt and blamed NNS for it
Can a write up be done on this gang of Teesta in this election season? Thxx
Mistake er, Modiji blamed MMS yesterday.
Also, this time Congis-NCPigs are going to lose big time in urban MH.
Last time around, they won 5/6 in Mum.
This time, only slumlord Priya Dutt is sure to win in Mumbai.
Rest are up for grabs.
“Congress inspite of doing badly will get 125 seats plus because of its large base.”
Not such a large base these days. After all, the gain they made from 113 in 1999 to 145 in 2004 was b/c of excellent performance in AP and even TN .. given the news coming out of AP, there will be big losses there same is the case with TN. This time <130 is a reasonable estimate for INC. The estimate I have given for NDA is NOT best case….
Of course, 2004 type over optimism is bad .. too much pessimism is bad as well…
Satyaki,
Your estimate is on the lines of what I have been thinking.The media has started reporting in the last 3 days that INC may not do well in AP as expected earlier.I would still give the INC 20 seats in AP,although I think it will have to be revised downwards.
I think your Left and BSP numbers are on the lower side.There have been reports recently of lack of co-ordination between the TC-INC cadres in WB.In UP,BSP will increase its vote share among Muslims at the cost of the SP.
Did you watch Prannoy Roy’s prediction & analsis on NDTV yesterday?
They are giving 163 to INC and only 123 to the BJP.
The BJP numbers are way below the minimum they will get.
What do you think?
163 for INC? Why did they stop there? They should have given 272.
@Arjun
“They should have given 272″.
Couldn’t stop laughing at that,
I sincerely wish the poll results this time will give a rude shock to all pseudo-secularists
My estimate which I have put up gives ~150 for BJP out of 195. INC gets around 126 out of the 158 I gave To be very optimistic for INC 135 and BJP 140 would be pessimistic
I dont know why every new party leader wants a jostle for christian communalism. We had chiranjeevi do it, with worse promises than what ysr is currently upto, now we have from vijayakanth.
Yesterday was Hindu new year for Tamil Nadu, and see what this guys does in Palani. The name Palani will remind anyone in south of one only one thing as it together with Tirupathi and Guruvayur is the truimvarate of the south.
PALANI: Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) leader Vijayakanth offered worship at a church in Palani for the safety of Tamils in Sri Lanka, on Tuesday.
Vijayakanth had announced that his party would organise joint prayers and worship at temples, churches and mosques for the welfare of Sri Lankan Tamils.
Vijayakanth came to the Blithe Hope Mission Church at R F Road in Palani without any prior announcement and offered prayers along with the faithfuls of the church. He participated in a joint prayer for the protection of Sri Lankan Tamils.
He told reporters that he would not like to talk politics in the church premises. He had come only to pray for the protection of Sri Lankan Tamils.
DMDK candidate Muthuvelraj and others joined him in the prayers
ndtv= nehru dynasty tv
The tamil nadu govt can have whatever day they want as new year for tamils, but it has no business to say when the hindus must have their new year. It has no business to decide what poojas are to be offered in hindu temples and what a particular day is to be called for. This is blatant volation of secular principle of constitution of india on the birthday of Ambedkar. Infact no movies released in TN to mark the customary new year release thats been in vogue for years, and even the communist Hindu which I thought bravely offered its wishes on new year last april, this time preferred to call it by new name
The Hindu Religious and Charitable Endowments Board (HR&CE) administered temples have toed the government line and called April 14 as Chitirai Thirunaal and not as Tamil New Year. Not surprisingly, there were no special poojas to celebrate the Tamil New Year, but whatever poojas were performed, they were attributed by the temple authorities to Chithirai Thirunal.
Executive Officer of Sri Kapaleeswarar Temple, Mylapore, Devendiran told The New Indian Express that the day was Chitirai Thirunaal and not Tamil New Year. ‘Everything is as usual,’ he said. When asked what the good turnout meant, if the day was not New Year, the official said the people had come to offer worship on Chithirai Day.
Similar was the official response in Hindu Religious & Charitable Endowments (HR & CE) run temples in Chennai and suburban areas including the Karaneeswarar Temple in Saidapet. K Thangaraj, a devotee, said he was surprised by the absence of special pujas and the festive spirit. “Whatever be the government’s stance, the tradition of celebrating the New Year in April should not be interfered with.” Chitirai is celebrated as it happens to be the New Year Day and not special for any other reasons.
‘It is for me to decide on which day I would observe the New Year. At this rate, the State would tell me what shirt I should wear,” Thangaraj said.
According to officials, oral instructions were given to Executive Officers not to perform any special pujas to observe the New Year. The practice of reciting Panchankam is not necessary, and if possible it should be dispensed with. “If at all pujas are to be organized, it should be described as Chitirai Thirunaal and not as Tamil New Year.
NR, the reason why everybody wants to toe to christian communalism is that the christian population is increasing and is bound to increase like that for some time. So all their efforts are to get those votes. That’s all. Do you think Vijaykanth or Chiranjeevi has any knowledge or interest in the welfare of the country at large? They are utter fools and idiots who have really no knowledge about governance what so ever. They think it is like acting in any other cinema.
Chidambaram revokes his stand under pressure from his bosses
Questioning L K Advani’s role as Home Minister during Kandahar hijacking, Home Minister P Chidambaram today said he would not have allowed release of terrorists as done by the NDA regime.
“If I was the Home Minister I would not accept…I will not say after four years I do not know whether the External Affairs Minister accompanied the terrorists,” Chidambaram said at a press conference here, when asked about the Kandahar episode.
Advani had claimed that he was not aware of the decision that then External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh would accompany the three terrorists released in exchange for passengers of hijacked Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar in 1999.
“I would have told the Prime Minister not to allow the External Affairs Minister to accompany the terrorists”, he told reporters here tearing into the arguments of the saffron party that UPA failed to contain terrorism.
BJP has come under flak from the Congress for having freed three terrorists, including militant outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed founder Masood Azhar, during the Kandahar hijacking.
Chidambaram’s statement was significant as it came close on the heels of BJP’s attempt to quote his earlier statement made sometime back where he said it was a “difficult decision” for the government
Yossarin, I am sorry. I think my above comment should better be deleted because some fans of Chiru/Vijaykanth may be hurt and come upon me.
Anup,
why are you worried. every voter has right to talk of a party or candidate and criticise them and expose them.
Your details are not going to be known for them to harm you physically. They are jsut gonna come up with some comments. at the max.
Why its even more difficult for BJP in naxal affected areas
The few villagers who have since returned huddle together around the one building that still has a roof. Its pink walls are covered with neatly painted Hindi script. The message the Naxalites left would be unequivocal, were the villagers able to read Hindi: “Don’t take part in elections. Don’t listen to the Hindu fascist members of the BJP [the Hindu nationalist opposition party]. Throw away their leaflets, don’t help the police.”
My slogan for UP– “Haathi ko pranaam, Kamal par nishaan”
Guys,
My guess is that the BJP will do 170 to 180. Congress will be down to 100. The anti-nationals will get the shock treatment of their lives. They will have their asses kicked so badly they wont be seen for the next years. This is the beginning of the end of the congress.
‘Vinashe kaale viparit Buddhi’. You can see it everywhere from Laloo, MMS, Sonia, Rahul and of course less said about the servile spokesperson the better. They respond to criticism, but everyone knows the answers are less than honest and their spin is just that.
Make sure that all your friends, relatives and colleagues are influencing voters and make them vote. My parents are my role models, they are convincing the vegetable vendors that they should vote for the BJP. This is the spirit we need.
I never had high hopes on Chiranjeevi once he started pandering to the vote banks, and started giving inane promises.Plus, even before the ticket selling scandals broke out, it was obvious that PRP saw itself as the party of Kapu community.
Usually, any politician surrounds himself with family and relatives after winning power.Chiranjeevi plunged to hitherto unseen depths even here – from day 1, it has been all about himself, his two brothers, his brother-in-law, bro-in-law’s son and so on.
Compared to Chiranjeevi, Vijayakanth, IMO, has conducted himself much better till now.
Once poll results are out, PRP will be reduced to selling its elected MLAs/MPs to the best bidder in the market.
A great actor, but such a lousy politician.What a disappointment really !
Guys,
don’t worry too much about the numbers now. When was the last time BJP won anything unexpectedly? Murphy’s law is always true in the case of BJP. If the NDA+ can cobble up 272, it’ll be nice. If not, there’s always next time.
Kumar,
You are right that Vijayakanth had conducted himself better than chiranjeevi. Infact he had conducted better than many porty leaders. It is for this reason that one has to be disappointed on his vote bank stunt.
He refused to have any minority cell or caste cell in his party despite everyone asking him to do so, saying that we are all equal, so wherein comes this divisions of minority, majority. Till now i have not heard him invoke religion name in his speeches. He did not attempt to have caste vote bank or literary vote bank as many parties do. So he has definitely conducted himself better.
I may be reading too much into that news report, but it has perhaps something to do with a myth that I have heard, that chief ministers do not visit the lord of palani, as if they had failed in even one instance of upkeeping dharma and visit there, it will be there downfall.
But definitely, given the day, given the place it did look to me like christian communalism being increasingly practised by our politicians.
SONIA GANDHI says:ADVANI is “SLAVE” of RSS.
So media will ignore this personal attack and the derogratory statement of Congress President.
EC will too ignore this unlike in udhav thackrey speech where he said “i heard some people calling our PM “Hijr*” and when i asked him not to say they started shouting “hijr*” loudly
Because both Media/EC and our MMS are actually slave of “10 peoplelane”
well venkatesh u rightly said “Vinashe kaale viparit Buddhi’
Numerological Analysis of LK Advani
Good Day!
Lok sabha elections are nearing in India, and the hot topic of these days is ” Who will emerge victorious in elections ?” Well, people have different opinions on that. But we are not going to debate on the political stance of the party, whereas today we will analyze the numerological significance in Mr LK Advani’s life. We will see many interesting facts and lots of points for young budding numerologers. LK Advani or Lal Krishna Advani was born on November 8th 1927. His birth number is 8 and lifepath is 2. He was born Lal Krishna Advani, but he is widely called as LK Advani and he himself signs as LK Advani, There is a strong reason for him to change the full name into LK ADVANI. His birthname Lal Krishna advani comes 44 which is 8 in numerology and also his birth date is 8. During his childhood he had used the name which comes 44, only after consulting a numerologer, Mr Advani has started using the shorter version of his name. From his name which comes 44, we can very well analyze the life of advani in his early life, being a 8 born person and name with 44, he must have a strong rooted idealogies, and also extremely traditional and orthodox or viceversa, in this case he is very traditional and religious. Hisdeep rooted Hindutva and Hindu ideals is a result of his birth number 8 and name as 44. A kind of rebel from his early life itself and possess a natural flair for debate and argument. He must be a strong willed person and a short tempered youth. With both name and date of birth 8, he should have been a person of extremeties, with tremendous force in him. But even though Advani possessed all the leadership qualities and the required knowledge and strength, its evident that from his name that he was not successful and experienced many obstacles. Not only due to obstacles and lost chances but also due to his controversial speeches and his idealogies. Now at present with name as LK Advani, his approach and mental prowess has been changed, being radical and a rebel, now he has become calm and pensive. More strategic than before and more wiser too ! The present name LK ADVANI has done wonders for him than his previous name. The name comes 23 which is a powerful and lucky number, the number of throne. Also an 8 born person with name as 5 is said to be very powerful and infleuntial. With his present name, Advani has changed a lot in himself when compared to his youth, the number 5 brings changes constantly. Change in his deep ideologies, change in his political views, and many more. With name as 23, he was able to defeat all the allegations against him in many cases and emerge successful. Though the stars are favouring him for PM this election, Advani will have to live his life with endless struggles and battles has his name Advani when called comes 18. One of the irony in this election is Advani is 8 born and his opponent Prime minister Manmohan Singh is also 8 born (26) with name as 5 (59). So its a battle of equals and the winner will be decided on the base of party who is going to form alliance after election.
http://astronlogia.com/
“According to the police, Dutt claimed that police harrassed him in jail because his mother was a Muslim. Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh and MP Jaya Bachchan were also present at the meeting.” (As per expressbuzz.com)
Is it not intended to cause communal divide and asking for votes exploiting communal sensibilities. Why no NSA against Sanjay Dutt.
@ksv
dont worry dear apna SHER kal aa raha hai!!!!
TOMORROW VARUN WILL BE RELEASED,I AM JUST WAITING FOR WHAT HE SAYS AFTER BEING RELEASED.
THE WAY HE SPOKE FIRST IN DELHI AND NEXT IN PILIBHIT DURING SURRENDER IMPRESSED ME A LOT.
Hello guys, I am a staunch BJP supporter. Today somebody(Media person working for BBC) told me that Rajnath Singh will probably lose in Ghaziabad. Is this true ?
He says so because Bania voters who will vote for CONgress’s Goel. And BJP’s tomar is also angry.
Is this true, and what are the remedial measures BJP is taking.
I don’t see many old readers like Jiggs, Nishka, Sakthi and others. Do they know about this new site for offstumped? May be offstumped should put a link with a big font on their national interest site.
Yoss, I did not know that we can comment on the old site. I saw lot of new users commenting there. Please put a link to new site in big font or something so that readers know about the new site.
Right now that link is very small in one section on the right hand side.
Drummasala,
Both jiggs and Sakthi have commented in this new site. Jiggs left his e-mail address for us to communicate with him in his last post, and gave feel that he was going to be absent from site for some time.
Nishka and Tathaghata though were not witnessed in this site.
This is a great site. i have visited this for first time and am impressed by your enthusiam guys. I am sure NDA will do much better than what the media is projecting. Media is anti-BJP and pro-establishment. So nothing to woorry.
In any case with the kind of language which congress is using really shows that they are really scared. This shows NDA will win
Get ready to celeberate.
This journalist in rediff claims to have predicted correctly the karnataka, gujarat, rajasthan, chatisgarh, MP.
She shows utter disdain for predictions of national media.
She gives BJP 137, congress 119.
NDA-184 upa-176 including lalu paswan,turd pront -183, where mulayam is included.
In much discussed MAHa she maintains staus qou.
specials.rediff.com/election/2009/apr/15bs-general-election.htm
Please continue with campaign discussion on this site. I will keep comments closed on the INI site by default except for posts like the open letter to PBM which are intended to invite comments from a wider audience like Dr. PBM himself
Analysis of above.
Are we headed for two extra-constitutional, autocratic power centres for the price of one government?
With the election upon us, and neither the ever-closer terror dragon, nor the unfolding of the economic inferno seem to have set the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Narmada or the Kaveri on fire. We get the distinct impression that the aging leaders of the tired old national parties with their coalitions coming apart rapidly — or the myriad leaders of the ragtag groupings of what pass for regional parties — are none too keen on the outcome and merely going through the motions of a campaign.
No wonder then that the hardy staple of the election season entertainment, the polls, are conspicuous by their absence. A landslide or a close finish is exciting to predict, but a hopelessly hung verdict is as boring as a pointless draw in a Test match, our other reigning passion. Nevertheless, it is worth every thinking person’s fifteen seconds of attention to ponder what the likely results foretell about our polity.
The accompanying table is the result of my state-by-state guess work, based on purely impressionistic analysis through my travels and readings (disregarding scrupulously what the electronic media says) over the last several months. I had predicted in these columns the results of the Gujarat and Karnataka assembly elections using a similar approach, not only in terms of the ultimate winner, but also the size of the victory. An unpublished analysis of the more recent Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh [Images] and Chhattisgarh elections was also similarly accurate. This is not to stake a claim for being a psephologist, but simply to show a consistent track record. For the record, I must state that I am not a partisan of any political formation whatsoever.
This exercise was done on March 10 and shared with some friends. The only change I have made since then is to move the Samajwadi Party seats out of the UPA column to others and some attendant minor adjustments. The Rashtriya Janata Dal/Lok Janshakti Party seats in Bihar have been left in the UPA tally, as the leaders of these parties have said that they will back the Congress after the elections.
Changes from one column to another, especially between the Congress and the BJP, would be possible and by and large in the plus/minus 1/2 range for each state and should even out. For the Congress to come ahead, though, almost all of these would have to be plus Congress and minus BJP, which seems a little less likely. (See table General Elections 2009)
As with all others writing on the subject, I see no combination crossing the magic number of 273 seats, which is no surprise at all. Where my analysis differs from others is that while I see the BJP at the same number as in 2004 (138), I see a decline in the Congress strength to around 120, whereas the consensus figure is around 150. There are several reasons for this.
First, while neither major party has a lock on any of the 40-plus seat states any longer — or even a sizeable (meaning number 1 or number 2) presence in them except the Congress in AP — there is a core BJP vote in certain larger states (eg Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka — a more recent phenomenon), and even in some of the smaller ones (Himachal Pradesh [Images], Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand [Images] and possibly urban Punjab and parts of Orissa). This is the committed Hindu vote, with or without Modi and not swayed by personalities and current event appeals. It gives the BJP its core strength of 80-100 seats in the Lok Sabha.
By contrast, the Congress, which had a similar base once, seems to have lost it some time ago. Its relatively secure seats in Maharashtra, Andhra, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Karnataka are all now under attack from allies or enemies and can no longer be taken for granted, although they could be good for 50-plus seats. This base could be eroded by influences of personalities and current happenings.
Third, the talk of the BJP losing its way, being leaderless, lost in factionalism, the Congress basking in the afterglow of five years in government led by a decent man, etc are all a mirror image of what appeared five years ago. We know what happened then.
This picture leaves the President, the Congress apparatchik handpicked for just such an eventuality, in a quandary: precedent demands that she call the largest single party first, which in this case would be the BJP. The opportunist seats from the ‘Allies’ and ‘Others’ columns (except the Left) would then gravitate towards the BJP. If the Congress is in the pole position, it would attract these same birds of passage, and possibly even the Left. The President might throw the precedent out of the window and call the head of the largest pre-poll alliance first. Depending on how this is interpreted, it could be either! Or she might just wait until someone comes up with a list of all the ‘bought’ horses adding up to the magic number of 273.
Arun Nehru says that whoever gets the support of a majority of the 120 seats from UP and Bihar will be in power, which political assessment should be acceptable. By every account, Mayawati [Images] will get 35-plus seats from UP. That leaves only 85 seats for the others. No single party or combination will get 60 of these. It is also unlikely that the RJD/LJP/SP combo and the Congress would get 60 seats between them, because that would leave the JD-U)/BJP and RLD/BJP 25 seats or less in the two states. This would become even more difficult if Mayawati crosses 40 seats in UP, which is more likely than any other possibility giving any other formation(s) 60 seats.
Therefore, the only way anyone could command the support of the majority of UP/Bihar MPs is if Mayawati goes with them. This is even more worrisome than the prospect of her becoming the prime minister, because in this very likely and probable scenario, she will enjoy immense power including veto on most crucial aspects without any responsibility or answerability, surpassing Sonia Gandhi’s [Images] position between 2004 and 2009.
This is likely to be further worsened by the imminent prospect of the same combination having to woo the Empress of Poes Garden (J Jayalalithaa) as well. Two extra-constitutional and entirely autocratic power centres for the price of one (barely worth the name) government!
Should we cry for our benighted country?
http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/apr/15/why-polls-2009-could-be-the-jaya-and-maya-show.htm
@ NR, it is almost the same that i have given on this blog long back
Sec bad
siasat.com/english/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=335503&Itemid=79&cattitle=Hyderabad
siasat.com/english/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=335472&Itemid=79&cattitle=Hyderabad
Vijay,
I did notice it. Interesting is in all these, the tally of BJP is pessimistic one pointed by satyaki and it can increse with momentum as election goes, just like in AP.
So it is that which gives a silver hope, but for now, i stick to these values rather than expect too much.
All along from last year BJP pessimistic tally has been at 130’s thanks to its core votes as author points.
Thats why as rajeev says, it is important for BJP to keep its core votes in good humour as well while getting new votes based on development agenda.
Some token measures for core votes could be action on coins, kendriya vidyalaya issue, textbooks, ramsethu, atleast ensuring that money from temple is spent for temple related and temple charity affairs, white paper on how states have used the money from temples in last 15 years and so on. These dont make it overtly saffron, but keeps its core votes in good humour.
Its development agenda will keep adding new votes. That rediff article on your vote where in a chennai man whose vote is for congress, who just supports modi if he is for pm purely for his development track record.
Chidambaram claims he has sealed intelligence gaps and also claims of high competence of his and his party
Corporations have declared 16th a holiday in Hyderabad. But MSM’s propaganda has done the damage. People will be voting for candidates not the party.
Also heard that Lalji Tandon faces tough fight in Lucknow. Hope its not true.
Why are people ready to forgive the Congress again and again and again like desktop users forgive MicroSoft. While BJP faces the flak even if it falter just once, very like Unix.
@ counterview,
It takes a lot of time to change. particlarly in the bueracracy and the media that has always thrived on supporting cong as they are entrenched. It will take another 10 years maybe
i am strong supporter of BJP, as far as Lucknow seat concern, BSP is doing well as its candidate is flowing money like anything and BJP canadidate Lalji , its worst candidate.e doesnt do anything ,insteadof that if they had choose Dr S.C. Roy (formar Mayor of LKO)it would be great.
i belongs to same area(LKO west), i have never seen Lalji came or did someing in last 2 yrs.he is only thinking that he will get this seat just following ATAL JI.it cant be possible
counterview,,
its because media is not with BJP. Media creates momentum on issue. BJP is paying for being mute spectator on media front. I really dont understand why is it running against reality. Media is to be bought, tramped, pushed and used. Media is not helping congress by being pro-congressi, but regional players. People hate to vote for congress,, but media also makes people hate BJP.
@gujjuman
yes agree media helps to keep away from BJP.yesterday i was talking with TN Guy about MODI, and he was having same voice as media. i asked how do you come know about Modi,reply was same as from TV news.