TVR Shenoy writing in the Rediff offers a profound insight in this observation
The BJP, as matters stand today, does not have a single ally left in the states on the eastern seaboard.
BJP has few or no chances of winning seats in a contiguous line of states running from West Bengal to Kerala.
Take a look now at the states on the Arabian Sea. Gujarat and Karnataka actually have BJP governments, and it is a major party in Maharashtra and in Goa. Barring Kerala, the BJP has a good chance of winning several seats, a situation that is diametrically opposite from that on the eastern side.
While the centerpiece of Mr. Shenoy’s lament is the BJP’s eastern coastline vaccum which he describes as a sad commentary on our democracy, he makes only a passing reference to a more profound geo-shift that needs to be appreciated.
The Trinamool Congress is allied with the Congress. The Telugu Desam, the AIDMK, and the Biju Janata Dal are now allied with the CPI-M, possibly as part of a resurrected Third Front.
So if the Congress suffers the pendulum of incumbency in both directions across the east coast we could see for the first time a contiguous string of states from West Bengal to Kerala along the eastern coastline in which the CPI-Mafioso is either in power, a partner in power or has a stake in power through the back door.
Back in 2007-2008 while the farce over the Nuclear Deal was playing out Offstumped has speculated on the calculation behind Prakash Karat’s obduracy to take the CPI-Mafioso’s reach beyond its traditional strongholds of Bengal and Kerala.
It can perhaps be concluded that Project Karat was all along about an eastern sea-board strategy that gives the Communists a stake in Governance and a say in the kind of Development along the East Coast states.
With Orissa being the last and only bastion of resistance one must ask the question
If the violence over aggressive Evangelical activity in Orissa was Maoist inspired and a key element of Project Karat ?
If the assassination of VHP Leader Swami Lakshmananda was the tipping point for it was bound to provoke a violent reaction ?
The geo-strategic implications of this East-West coastal faultline must not be under-estimated for the China loving CPI-Mafioso could be serving more than one interest with its eastern sea-board strategy of acquiring a political stake in all Bay of Bengal States leading up to Kerala.
This apparent rise of the 3rd front along the east coast must be seen as less about regionalism and more about National Security and Strategic Interests with a China friendly Communist party acquiring a strategic stake in Governance allowing it to influence the quality and pace of Development along the East Coast
Two questions arise the BJP must answer beyond the 2009 election season in the face of diminishing political space along the eastern sea board
#1 Why has the BJP been more succesful along the Western Coast and Heartland than along the Eastern Coast ?
#2 How will it counter the CPI-Mafioso’s attempt at ressurection through an eastern sea-board strategy that may end up serving China’s geo-political interests ?
Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Offstumped, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat
OT
This article claims that BJP has taken to surveys right from candidate selection, issue to slogan selection and has left political analysis behind.
http://is.gd/mBxn
Conspiracy theory?
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090310/jsp/siliguri/story_10650302.jsp
BJP should give support to Gorkhaland. People on the hills are more patriotic than the rest in this wasteland.
Article critical of central in charges of state, who dont even care for the state and visit cadrs their or strategise. I think it is high time once in 3 months the central in charges are made to submit the activites carried out at ground level to increase support and submit overall report. The central in charges need to be made accountable. They are the reason why party has not developed in the three southern states.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Rajnaths-pointsmen-fail-to-deliver/articleshow/4247963.cms
I agree with the general observations made by Yoss, but I have to disagree with the overall conclusions made here.
Firstly, BJP comes to power in the west because the society overall is more “conducive” or accepting of good governance. Several factors including access to information by the general population leads to such electoral results. The east on the other hand has fallen into a “vicious circle” of poverty. While there are exceptions to this rule (Andhra,TN), it is also not true that BJP is lost in the entire east (Bihar or Arunachal).
Secondly, although there may be (likely) a nexus between the killing of Swami Laxmanananda and “Project Karat”, but to suggest that “American/EU evangelical money will flow into India to prop up a communist rule with the goal to help China” is overstating the issue. The nuke deal is a strong counter-point where these two interests collide. Agreed that US is using missionaries to project its soft power or China is using the Karat(s) to do help attain strategic goals, these forces are also acting against each other .
These are answers to the first question.
For the second question (countering cpim-mafiaso) – the so-called alliance between communist, tdp, bjd, aiadmk is “strictly” opportunistic – like Pak supporting Indian post for ICC. If the bjp CAN become the largest party, lots of these alliance will “fall in line”
As that say, life is 10% what happens to you and 90% what you do with it.
Now that the 10% has happened to BJP – BJD ditching it – Let’s now focus on the remaining 90%. If the entire parivar truly focuses on seats that have been won at least once OR was a close runner up in the past 3 elections then, BJP can still increase it’s current tally by 30+ giving it a real shot at forming government.
Any and ALL analysis of what BJP can do along the east cost fault line can wait for 10 weeks. At that time, whether or not BJP forms the government at the center, serious thought will need to go in to
1. NaMo taking a major lead in national affairs (at least after the Gujarat Golden Jubilee is over in 2010
2. BJP drawing up an aggressive 5 year plan to rebuild the party in every state with clear message of socio-economic upliftment without entitlements AND
3. Special plan to increase party strength in the left bastions of Kerala & WB so that they never become precursors to an Nth front ever again.
To add more, TMC alliance with congress is pure “compulsion”. Both know in most likely hood they will have to sit in opposite side of the Lok Sabha. However, a successful coalition against cpim (I’m hearing that bjp will not oppose TMC and TMC might put up a weak opponent to bjp in 2 seats) might break the cpim mafiaso – at least in WB.
> #1 Why has the BJP been more succesful along the Western Coast and Heartland than along the Eastern Coast ?
I suspect it has something to do with being comparatively better enlightened.
> CPI-Mafioso’s attempt at ressurection through an eastern sea-board strategy that may end up serving China’s geo-political interests
Wow! Where do you pull stuff like that out from? I’m glad we aren’t living in your universe.
Seriously, you could learn a lot from spending some time in the south, or the east. Try to learn Malayalam or Tamil and read our literature, because for the sake of everyone we need to better understand one other.
CPI (Mafioso) is the most corrupt and communal party in India now. It can go to any length to usurp power. Ponnani electoral constituency is now gifted to fundamentalist muslims by deciding to field an LDF independent who is to chosen by the fundamentalist outfit, though CPI has taken objection. The mafioso party has cosied up with all corrupt, communal, fundamentalist, fascist and anti-national elements to worm its way to power. It can use, misuse power and people to achieve its nefarious ends. This link from HK amply provides its diabolical activities. http://haindavakeralam.com/HkPage.aspx?PAGEID=8334&SKIN=K
Sabari,
Yoss is from south. So he does know it and one doesnt quote Thirukural without knowing a bit of it.
It is you who has suggested that west is beeter enlightened than west. So it is you who has to understand.
One has every reason to suspect a party that did not support nation in the war and also demoted the current tallest leader in the state where communism took roots in India for donating blood to nations jawans.
It is you who is in confused land.
Yossarin….
While I agree with you that Odhisa was the only state in the east where BJP had presence and the others they have not DEBUTED as yet.
However, I wrote this line yesterday and I am writing it again” With the VHP / Bajrang Dal declaring war on Naveenbabu on the Swami murder issue, expect the BJP to turn the tables on this rag tag 3rd Front”.
It is not going to be a walkover for Jerks, Jokers, Turn coats to trample the BJP so easily.
Also, I am very hopeful that BJP will retake the old Jan Sangh South Calcutta seat this time around. The one where Dr. S P Mokkherjee used to win.
So, small but a good begining for the BJP.
ooops….typos
DR S.P.MOOKHERJEE
Sabari first ask your commies to read your states chequered history. A state that gave to the nation the greatest school of astronomy was insulted when your commie leaders instead of remembering them only remembered european astronomists in the international year of astronomy.
Oh i am sorry commies dont read indian lit. Only russian and chinese lit are allowed. Thevaram, kamba ramayanam are untouchables, father of malayalam does not deserve a statue in his home place for fear of votebank, pride of kerala culture, Ayurved kottakkal university not allowed but aligarh is welcome.
So much for understanding your lit.
With BJP’s 20% voteshare and Congress 34% voteshare, BJD has taken a risky position.
While BJP will do badly in Orissa in 2009, they should gear up for 2014 and I am sure that’s what the energised state unit will do.
Namo will be touring extensively in the state.
Jiggs have they announced candidate for south kolkata? With mamta planning to shift and deepa needing to defend dashmunsi consti, BJP must do all to get this seat.
@NR…
Thanks for the dope…buddy…
I had read about Mamtadidi, sitting MP, that she had chickened out on 2 issues:
1. Her nonsensical campaign in Singur, thereby angering the urban voters
2. BJP is strong contender this time around.
Also, If I am not mistaken the South Calcutta seat always used to elect Congress but definetly not the Commies?????
It will be a psychological blow to Commies, if the Lotus bloom’s right in the heart of their so called paradise.
Ooops…
No dont think BJP has already announced a candidate, The report some one month ago read that BJP high command has asked the state chief Mr. Sinha to find a suitable candidate, I bet it is gonna be a Bengali film star.
Maybe, Tathaghata can throw some light on this one.
This eastern seaboard theory is too alarmist if not ridiculous. CPM has always had a presence in Bengal, Andhra and TN. Infact in TN, CPM always finds itself in the winning alliance. yes always. Simply bcos Naveen Patnaik has dumped the BJP, there is nothing for the CPM to gloat over.
Infact what should surprise us is the continuance of JD(U) and Akali’s in the NDA. Akalis almost certainly don’t need the BJP. JD(U) could have also taken a calculated risk and raised its profile by quitting the NDA now. They had nothing to lose.
Curiously the allies of both Congress and the BJP are absolute rotten apples except JD(U) and NC. People if they are smart will rout these allies of both the national parties.
With Communists, all conspiracy theories seem believable. They have a history in conspiring against the interests of the Indian state and the wellbeing of the Indian people, most recently seen during their stubborn resistance to the Indo-US nuclear deal and intelligence leaks to China during the controversy in Nepal.
Correction:.. intelligence leaks to the Maoists in Nepal
Folks,
In all the chats I have seen, invariably people say readiness for 2014 and so on.
With current fractured verdict, I am sure the elections will be held much earlier, not 2014.
1.As much as an eastern sea-board strategy, the alliance with BJD in Orissa, and with TDP in AP will probably help ease access (to China) to the mineral wealth (including the natural gas deposits in K-G basin) in these states.Thankfully, Gujarat has a ‘lock’ on the gas reserves in AP
2.I think this time the CPM is actually envisioning the possibility of India’s first communist PM (Karat/Yechury) or at the least representation in Union cabinet with PM-giri being given to Lalu/Mulayam/CBN/Pawar (whoever contributes more to the kitty).Congress would be happy to provide outside support to such a coalition and pull out support at an opportune time.
3.Among southern leaders, we can count on CBN and Jayalalithaa to keep the Communists at arms length, and not give in to their machinations/threats on issues of economic importance.Not so sure about Naveen Patnaik’s capabilities in this aspect.
4.Jayalalithaa, Naveen can also be counted upon to support BJP-led govt if BJP gets around 190 on its own.In AP, the MPs of TRS and PRP can swing BJP’s way too.
5.BJP should look at TN, AP, Kerala and WB as high-potential states, and fight the elections keeping in mind the possibility of an election in 2011/12.If there is a Congress-supported third front govt at the helm, we are bound to have mid-term elections and then it will be a straight Rahul Vs NaMo fight.
6.BJP needs to start educating voters in high-potential states that they need to look at the national issues and vote for BJP, the best suited national party for governing the country.This pitch needs to be refined and mastered by 2011.
Right now, if we ask even hardcore BJP supporters about the differences in economic philosophy/developmental models of the BJP vs Congress, they will struggle to give a coherent answer.We need a lot of ‘political and economic awareness classes’ for the leaders, party workers, and citizen volunteers.Where is the BJP university?Where is its virtual avatar?
@Kumar…
Spot on.
However, if the BJP wins 190+ seats on its own, then it will serve the full term.
IMO, it is better that we wait for NaMo to be the next PM, let LKA plough thru. the path for him, not that I have doubts in NaMo’s capabilities, however, it is better that way, as we are assured of a second BJP term.
I still fell BJP, this time around will achieve its target of 190 to 205 seats on its own.
stringest seat for bjp in bengal is Dum Dum north of kolkatta and also where Airport is situated.
Bjp had won this seat twice in 2000,& 1998.
@ Yogesh
2014 was about elections in Orrisa. Right wingers should work for 2009 with full heart.
In 2004, NDA seemed all set to romp home for second term. It didn’t. What has followed is 5 years of darkness, confusion and mayhem.
Lets put people who care for this country back in charge of it, at the earliest.
YOSS
lIKE rAHUL wATCH LETS HAVE “women candidate watch” reason i think the most vocal party cpim of Women Reservation dont have “SINGLE” women candidate from Bengal
yossarin, spot on. this is a troubling development
the entire east coast is at the risk of mafia of commual socialists.
the commual socialists or Maoists are going to have a resurgence if this alliance of left traitors gains pprominence in these states.
encirclement of cities by maoists is next step.
watch out for left and bsp antics in MH
Kumar,
excellent analysis,
I see more BJP seats in AP this time due to huge fragmentation of votes between congress, PRP, (TDP-TRS-Left), BJP. Traditionally urban middle class hindus always voted for BJP and that vote will still be there.
Now Hyderabad region became four Loksabha seats as against two last time and that will help BJP a lot. Hyderabad LS is one, where BJP can win if Congress does not field a candidate. Congress will support MIM, TDP will support MBT, now PRP will field some Muslim candidate for sure or support MBT itself. BJP I guess will field former deputy Mayor Subhash chanderji and as the muslim votes split, hindu votes will be intact and pave way for BJP win, I am thinking.
Chevella is one which I just saw has areas of Chevella, Tandur, Vikarabad which are part of earlier Hyderabad constituency where Baddam Balreddy used to contest. Now the same are in Chevella Loksabha where the popular B.Balreddy is contesting so I am hopeful he will also win. Here the contest is only between BJP and congress. TDP and PRP will be relegated.
Another one is Malkajgiri LS which has parts of erstwhile Secunderabad and Nalgonda LS seats like cantonment, L.B.Nagar, etc. Secunderabad is BJP bastion while Nalgonda BJP came second in 2004 with 4.2 lakh votes against 4.8 that CPM candidate got. Here also N.Indrasena Reddy who is famous in the region has great chance. And also the Telangana votebank is prominent here. All this is my personal opinion.
Hopefully, if BJP gets 4-5 on it’s own from AP and some more from PRP/TDP post-poll then that will definitely pave way for BJP at center.
there is no chance of BJP winning in Andhra. Congress is strong in AP.
Anup,
Agree with you that BJP’s best chance in AP lies in the 4 seats in Twin cities.
Hyderabad – Three way fight between MIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi, and Maha Kootami (TRS+TDP+Left)’s Zahid Ali Khan, and the BJP nominee (TBD).Hopefully with the Muslim votes split two ways, the BJP stands a chance here this time.My constituency (Jubilee Hills) comes under this LS seat; yesterday I went deep inside old city (Dhool Pet, Mangal Hat, Charminar, Falaknuma etc.) and happy to find that BJP cadre is as active as that of MIM.
Secunderabad – BJP has gone for Dattatreya; not a good choice, IMO.They should’ve gone for a younger leader.But, this seat should be treated as a MUST WIN for BJP.
Malkajgiri – Tricky one because of the delimitation exercise.All major parties have some strongholds in this constituency, and its size (21 lakh voters) will mean that BJP has to work very hard to get its committed voters to the booths.This may also be a high-profile contest because Devender Goud (PRP), Vijayashanti (TRS) and V.H.Rao (Congress) may clash.
Chevella – PRP has picked up a lot in Vikarabad, Tandur and Shankarpally; Congress vote base in this rural constituency used to be the workers and dalit voters (T.Anjaiah’s legacy), and there are signs of that cracking.There are many Central Govt employee enclaves in this seat and BJP would do well to focus on making them all vote.Bal Reddy is probably too old, and so, a fresh face with Bal Reddy’s support stands a good chance.If PRP can wean away Congress vote base here, BJP will benefit.
Apart from these 4, BJP should put up decent fight/play spoiler in Karimnagar, Nalgonda, Medak,Bhongir,Adilabad, Zaheerabad,Vijayawada, Visakhapatnam, and Tirupati.Could have added Narsapur among this list but Krishnam Raju is likely to contest as a Cong candidate (due to pressure from the Raju clan).
BJP can possibly win 2, and get support from TRS (4) and PRP (10).If we can get 16 seats from AP this way, it will be a boost. Because then Congress won’t get more than 16 on its own from AP.
Kumar, I think now Jubilee Hills now comes under Sec’bad LS seat. I got the info from link below. I think Sec’bad should be a cake-walk this time as Musheerabad and Amberpet assembly which fall here are strongholds of BJP. Laxman and Kishan Reddy are contesting from the two assembly segments and the campaign is in full swing here as far as I remember.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/03/03/stories/2009030358580300.htm
Kumar, I think now Jubilee Hills now comes under Sec’bad LS seat. I got the info from link below. I think Sec’bad should be a cake-walk this time as Musheerabad and Amberpet assembly which fall here are strongholds of BJP. Laxman and Kishan Reddy are contesting from the two assembly segments and the campaign is in full swing here as far as I remember.
hindu.com/2009/03/03/stories/2009030358580300.htm
Kumar – On what basis do you foresee a third front government? Even CPM surveys are pointing to losses in WB and Kerala. I feel the ragtag third front will get at the maximum 130 seats. Now lets come to Congress , maximum they can get is 120 seats. Who will fill in the gaps now? Do you think Mayawati will agree to join and if yes what will happen to SP then? Similarly if Jaya is there in third front , DMK will walk out. And TDP being a major constitutent of third front, why will Congress support such a front from outside? It will be committing harakiri in AP since that is still a major state wherein congress has some support on the ground. If congress supports a govt with TDP , then most congress supporters will join PRP.
Despite the BJP BJD split the NDA is not in that bad of a shape.
Lets look at a projection from Arun Nerhu
http://www.flickr.com/photos/27430283@N08/3337221251/
where he has INC at 151, BJP at 134, 33 for Left Front. His prediction was before the BJP-BJD breakup. So instead of 8 for INC, 6 for BJP and 7 for BJD in Orrisa. Lets suppose it is 10 for INC, 1 for BJP and 10 for BJD which puts INC at 153 and BJP at 129.
Lets see how the numbers pan out. There are various rules like
1) SP and BSP will not be part of same front
2) DMK and AIADMK will not be part of same front
3) NC and PDP will not be part of same front
4) TC and Left front will not be part of the same front
5) TDP, BJD, AGP, INLD, SS, SAD, will not support UPA
6) SP and NCP will most likely not support NDA
7) Left front, RJD, LJNS, ML, KC, will not support NDA.
JD(U) and RJD will not be part of the same front
A UPA front could be
INC (151)+MIM(1)+RJD(8)+LJNS(2)+NC(2)+JMM(2)+ML(2)+KC(1)+NCP(11)+RPI(1)+DMK(7)+PMK(7)+AITC(13)=208 If you add in TRS(6)+PR(3)+Assam independent(1)+JD(S)(2)+SDF(1)+NDF(1)+MDMK(2)+RLD(3)+BNP(1)=20 And also add in SP(26) you get 208+20+26=254. Not enough to cross 272. You will need support of Left front from the outside which is 254+33=287. But you need to substract 13 for AITC which would be 274 which is really cutting it close.
A NDA front would be
BJP(129)+AGP(4)+JD(U)(19)+INLD(3)+SS(12)+SAD(5)+RLD(3)=175
But you can add to it TDP(13)+TRS(6)+PR(3)+Assam Independent(1)+SDF(1)+NDF(1)+BJD(10)+MDMK(2)+PMK(7)+AITC(13)+AIADMK(16)+BNP(1)=74. 175+74=249. If you add BSP(36) it will be 249+36=285. Which is a potentially more stable block then a Left front supported UPA.
A Third front would not work because INC(151)+BJP(129)=280. I guess they can try to get INC to support a Third front from the outside but then the Thrid front would most likely not have TDP, BJD, AGP, INLD, SAD in it since they are all regional rivals to INC. In which case it is merely the UPA alliance I outlined above with INC supporting it from the outside. The numbers barely crosses the 272 line.
The math does not look that good for UPA nor NDA but it seems that NDA might be slightly better off.
off topic, Sorry, but need to take a look
http://www.thehoot.org/web/home/story.php?storyid=3702&mod=1&pg=1§ionId=6&valid=true
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/GJM_in_talks_with_BJP_over_Darjeeling_LS_seat/articleshow/4250204.cms?TOI_latestnews
Good development in Gorkhaland. Every seat counts.
Mamata has warned congi,either accept 14 seats in a day or so otherwise No alliance
Sharad Pawar,Mulayam,Laloo,DMK treaing congi with “leftover” food…oops seats.
@malay
great piece
recently Statesman Editor was jailed till he apologised for publishing article on Islam.
but no mercy for “Senior Editor” of Media who are worse than “pros”
The day , a CPI(M) –led action squad captured Nandigram in November 2008, Bhattacharjee dished out his infamous dichotomy ‘amra-ora’ ( We : CPI(M) and they: The Opposition ). When Amal Sarkar, a senior reporter of Dainik Bartaman, asked its rationale of’amra-ora’, pointing out that he was behaving in an openly partisan way. . Bhattacharjee came back with a threatening tone in front of journalists ” Don’t talk rot. It takes us few seconds to close down your newspaper”. The next day, Bartaman editor, the late Barun Sengupta (imprisoned during the Emergency), described the CM as a pygmy saying, ” Come on, do what you said.” There was a barrage of letters to the editor. But the CM did not express regrets.
Why do you believe that the communist parties of India represent Chinas interests only? Some do, while others represent interests of various players.
A lot of the funding for what happened in Nepal came from the anglo combine
With all the hoopla going on in all over the nation, it is important to consider voting to the right candidate..
A checklist can be found here: http://nationwithoutpeople.blogspot.com say no to criminals, say no to uneducated baboons, say no to ones see their own pcket first… support India not gimmick makers
while the article meanders in general, but one paragraph on the Badahoi byelection suggests that if BJP gets its act, it will be able to reap considerable catch in muddled waters of UP.
Similarly, defying the recent trend in which Uttar Pradesh’s Muslim legislators and voters moved from the S.P. towards the BSP, the latest by-election from Bhadohi near Varanasi suggests that many Muslims back the S.P. According to preliminary estimates, the S.P. attracted a significant number of Dalit votes, which were considered a BSP monopoly. It may not be wise to write this off as a freak, one-off result.
the link
http://www.flonnet.com/stories/20090327260610200.htm
Common..
Communists in AP are very weak.
Long ago I used to ridicule my commie friends that all the so called cadre who attend the meetings in Vijayawada visit Kanaka Durga temple after the meeting (Vijayawada used to be a commie stronghold when I was young).
Nothing much has changed after 2 decades.. except that they are also visiting Gunadala Mary (Matha) Temple and offer camphor and coconuts there too
Christian Conversion is the biggest threat to Hinduism: Successor to Late Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati
Published September 9, 2008 Christian , Conversion , Hinduism , Missionaries/Evangelists , Orissa , Swami Laxmananand Saraswati , Terrorism
Excerpted from orissadairy
Meanwhile Sachidananda Saraswati, the successor of late Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati said that conversion is the biggest threat to Hinduism and as long as it will continues inter-religious tension will prevail in state.
Sachidananda apprehended that conversion will continue in full swing in Kandhamal district. Foreign funding agencies backing conversion will take place in a big way since Laxamanandaji’s assassination.
“Swamiji stood like rock against these unlawful conversion and open cow slaughter without any fear,” he told in an interview. “No one can fill up the void created by his death,” he said.
“I know that they might eliminate me but I am not afraid of them, as death comes once in life,” said Sachinanada quoting Laxmanananda.
Sachidananda Saraswati also regretted that there are talks and condemnation of the post murder violence but no central leader had so far condemned the killing of the religious and social leader.
Asked whether he is contemplating to shift his activities to Kandhamal to manage the ashrama, Sachidananda declined to go there at the moment because of security reasons.
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NR:
> Yoss is from south.
Yea, and Bobby Jindal is Indian!
BJP to field Muslim candidate for Hyderabad LS seat?
HYDERABAD: For the first time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to field a Muslim candidate from Hyderabad Lok Sabha constituency to take on Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) in its own bastion.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/03/11/stories/2009031161030300.htm
Sabari, what is the connection here between Yoss and this Jindal.. are you just comparing people, be sensible.. if you are from North still you are an India in what way You are superior from people of South???
Seems like BJD might go with Congress after polls. Also, SS is playing hardball. A month away from polls, BJP is not in a good position.
BJP has to fire Rajnath and figure out what it is going to do in 2014.
Mayawati is preparing ground for 2014 by contesting all seats. she is contesting all seats in tn, ap, kerala to increase vote share and voter acceptability and visibility. Look at BJP, hesitating to contest seats in tn and ap, importantly in kerala when it has this golden oppurtunity of no aliies.
Junior Ramadoss asks karunanidhi to follow the Modi Model.
Citing the example of Gujarat, the Union Minister said the State had a prohibition policy. Yet, it was “one of the most progressive States.” Industrialisation and economic progress marked Gujarat. Tamil Nadu could follow the Gujarat example. “If given a chance, we will do it,” he said.
I don’t know why the press is potraying the BJP as a lost cause, they will get a minimum of 150 seat. Here is my take
Andhra: 1 seat
Arunachal Pradesh: 1 seat
Assam: 3 seats
Bengal: 2 seats
Delhi: 3 seats
Gujarat: 20 seats
Goa: 1 seat
Harayana: 4 seats
Himachal: 3 seats
Jammu: 1 seat
Jharkand: 7 seats
Karanataka: 19 seats
Kerala: 0
Madhya Pradesh+Chattisgarh: 33 seats
Maharashtra: 12 seats
Orissa: 2 seats
Rajasthan: 12 sets
Northeast other than Assam: 0
Punjab: 3 seats
Uttaranchal: 3 seats
That makes a total of 130 seats
Add to these BIhar 10 and Uttar Pradesh 10
A total of 150 seats.
Maharashtra, UP, Bihar and Delhi are critical to the BJP. Any gains more than postulated here will push them towards the 160-170 mark.
So in summary
BJP: 150
Allies: 30
TDP+PRP+TRS: 30
Jayalalitha: 30
The other 33 have to be managed- Trinamool and NCP perhaps, or sit in opposition for 2 years and then storm back to power in 2011
BJD can never go with the Congress, that will be a safe way to give the anti-congress space to the BJP and commit political suicide. Naveen feel sure of his 10-15 seats with or without the BJP and wants to fly a kite for prime-ministership. He will come back with tail between his legs, after seeing that the 3rd front is a non-starter.
And the surest way for the BJP to continue it present troubles with allies would be to welcome him. They should split his two bit parlimentary party after the Lok Sabha elections, to complete the numbers.
@34 Jaichind
Its a great start – we need this more – the scenario dissection!
Now, the rule # 3 may not be true, as u have written – needs to be checked. For example NC and PDP – they are a part of UPA – both of them.
That is why I say this is a “strange political untouchability” – from those who claim to be carrying the “true legacy of the Mahatma!”
kittigadu, you are underestimating the popularity of BJD. Most likely BJD will split orissa bjp before elections.
Guys,
I have just observed elements of regional statements in the comments here. Somebody is talking about North Vs South. Others are talking about East Vs. West. I think this is a dangerous phenomena. Perhaps, it is this kind of symptom which does not allow BJP to grow in the Southern states.
@Arjun,
BJD I can safely say will never support the Congress. This will dilute their appeal completely. I’m seeing a a few positive signs. Left will lose substantial votes in Bengal and Kerala. – at least 20 seats. This will break the stability of 3rd front completely. Therefore, 3rd front is a non-starter. That is the reason why, Naveen patnaik has not joined 3rd front now.
I would say one things. Is it not advisable to take BJD’s words on face-value? The BJP’s chances are bad in Orissa. It makes more sense for them to get more seats and join the NDA later.
They might actually bargain a better deal. You might not have seen this. But, BJD has not given kandhamal as a reason for leaving support. It is just the work of the Media which is speculating on popular reasons. This has never been said by the BJD until now..
Talking aboyt tail between legs. I think, BJP should work to improve organization and perform very well in Panchayat elections or next elections in the state. Their greatest achivement will be to improve their vote-share in the state.
A great scenario will be for BJP to gobble the Congress vote-bank in the state and remove them completely. Their condition is actually quite bad in the state..
Narasimham:
Of course not, because that would be silly. I’m afraid most of you lot are so angry (for want of a better word) that a little irony or sarcasm is lost on you. Shame.
Umesh, Thanks for the insught. I am aware that BJP situation is bad in Orissa. Wht did they not agree to BJD’s offer of reduced number of seats?
@46
My personal opinion is Muslim Candidate for Hyderabad Loksabha is a not a bad move. After delimitation, it is said MIM is very happy because the assembly segments which constitute now are Malakpet, Karwan, Goshamahal, Charminar, Chandrayanagutta, Yakutpura and Bahadurpura, where MIM is very strong. But off late, the Muslims themselves are hating MIM for its violent activities. So, TDP wants to cash in Muslim votes by putting Zahid Ali Khan. Now if BJP fields Muslim candidate, BJP gets all the Hindu votes in the region plus some Muslim votes. As Muslim votes split between TDP, BJP and MIM the extra votes favor BJP candidate.
Look at the media, the way they are making BJP-BJD split an issue for NDA, they don’t even care if Paswan snubbing Congress to contest in all 14 seats in Jharkhand is an issue for UPA. Or for that matter, SP snubbing Congress in UP. Despite all media campaign, the BJP will sneak through slowly under the carpet to become single largest party and NDA single largest alliance. I am happy that as much as they intensify their campaign that much contrapositive for them the results will be.
news from TN. gounders are the most dominant caste in coimbatore-erode kongu area. BJP already has a presence in Nilgiris and coimbatore, tirupur, though tirupur has labour votes due to spinning mills and cpm wants to contest here. So let us see if it pays off like gjm in wb atleast in 2 seats.
The report
Leaders of Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai,floated by the influential Konguvella gounders, a prominent community in the eastern districts of Tamil Nadu, last night called on BJP leader L K Advani at his residence in Delhi and discussed forging alliance for Lok Sabha polls.
Peravai’s president B Ramasamy and Secretary Easwaran represented the party in the poll talks, a party press release said here.
The body, which was functioning as ‘Kongu Vellala Gounder Peravai’ was recently renamed ‘Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai’ to become a political party
That’s certainly not impossible. I know the Leftists. I know the ‘Indian’ Communists because I was one of them in my childhood. And who was not a communist in his/her college days in our generation? I wish I wasn’t. I wish nothing of these came true today. I wish Indians never had to hear about communists. I wish India was a powerful nation today instead of a very soft land. Because after all how can I deny that ‘left of centre’ political ideology that we adore is best applicable in a strong nation historically run by ‘right of centre’ leaders? How can I deny the fact that a weak democratic nation only goes weaker with a left-of-centre majority? I wish Bengali communists never had the chance to speak. Hitler killed six million Jews. Churchill killed five million Bengalis in the same time-frame. Yet Bengali communists supported British because they were friend of Soviet Russia fighting Germany. If your ideology is greater than five million lives of your countrymen, heck your own people from your backyard, the ideology doesn’t deserve to live. I wish all the communists were dead in that famine. And I wish our beloved PM Singh didn’t have the audacity to call “British Raj was benevolent to India” over millions of dead bodies.
Sirdesai,
You said it!
Communists believe that they are the most brilliant thinkers, but in fact are the most brilliant daydreamers.
A simple example: “Indian communists still believe that China is our friend!”.
Adding a bit old but still relevant link to reveal their foolish pro-Chinese mentality. http://in.rediff.com/money/2006/oct/12bspec.htm
OT
Yoss can you give me your email id. I developed a basic spreadsheet that would let you do a what-if analysis for this election based on each states outcome. I would like to share it with this group and may be making more improvements. I think it will be very useful.Please give me your email I will mail it to you.
offstumped-at-gmail-dot-com
Sabari:
Anger in ironical ways of expression by blaming a creed, or race or comparing persons is a pschological error! whcih have to be corrected soon Hope you got it.
The below link provides interesting reading from a blogger using RTI act.
http://rtitimes.net/soniagandhi