India Elections 2009 – Orissa BJP BJD split Implications

The inevitable has finally happened in Orissa with Naveen Patnaik’s BJD calling off the decade old alliance with the BJP. It appears that the Orissa BJP has withdrawn support to the Naveen Patnaik Government.

In the short term this break up may cost the BJP more than it does the BJD. The BJP should have been prepared to factor these losses in Orissa in its calculations given the early indicators in the local body elections.It is also possible that the BJD could suffer the consequences of BJP votes migrating to the Congress out of spite as has happened before in Andhra to the TDP.

While the short term question of interest is whether Naveen Patnaik will end up as another Chandrababu Naidu, the long term implications are profound for the BJP and the kind of coalition it wants to build around the NDA platform.

Historically the fulcrum of its regional alliances for the BJP has been the bogey of anti-Congressism. The threat of the Congress brought into its fold parties as diverse as Akali Dal and AGP.

But a profound shift has occured in Indian Politics across states, a shift highlighted in private email exchanges by fellow INI blogger Rohit over at the Retributions.

This shift can be best understood by recognizing the fact that the Congress party’s diminishing status in the states to the point where it is in power independently in just one large state.

The diminishing of the Congress at the state level and the lack of corresponding expansion by the BJP in those states has twin implications.

The regional allies of the BJP who have far less in common with it on economic philosophy and have far more in common with the Congress on politics of entitlement, have found it easy to expand their social base to grow at the Congress’ expense. They are able to do so by being a more sensitive local substitute for the Congress that can pander to the entitlements of these social groups.

Thus in these states the BJP has a dilemma. Should it allow the ally to grow with a Congress like strategy and box itself into a corner or should it try to carve an alternate social base that is mutually exclusive.

The tensions in Orissa and to some extent in Bihar reflect this dilemma as Nitish is slowly appropriating the minority/poor base of the Congress-RJD.

One can conjecture that the hindutva path taken by sections of BJP with aggressive postures against christian evangelism was a response to this dilemma.

But the problem with Hindutva as the sole path to building an alternate social coalition is that it is not sustainable. A bitter lesson the BJP has learnt with its meteoric rise and fall in Uttar Pradesh.

In fact a closer look at Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka would reveal that the BJP’s stable social base is rooted in its appeal to a section of the population that is not served by narrow caste based entitlements.

In fact the most stable states for the BJP are those where Hindutva and Economic Interests are in sync. The states where its base is not stable despite Hindutva is because the BJP is not serving the economic interests of those social groups.

Hence the long term lesson the BJP must draw in these states is that as the Congress diminishes as a threat the incentive for the allies to stick with the BJP diminishes.

The BJP would be best served to go independent in these states to grow as a rival to the former ally.

But the most important lesson for the BJP is that such an independent path cannot be based on Hindutva alone for it doesn’t result in sustainable social coalitions. The BJP must differentiate itself on economic issues to carve out an independent constituency based on economic interests.

Offstumped had shown how this could possibly be done in Uttar Pradesh with this analysis. The RLD/BJP experiment in UP is an oportunity to put this to test but the pre-requisite is a clear differentiation by the BJP on economic issues where the distinction between Congress and regional parties on issues of entitlements and approach to development and governance is crystal clear.

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Filed under: Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Offstumped, Rajasthan Polls 2008, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat