On a day when History was made in the United States with the inspirational swearing in of Barack Obama as the next President, opportunity is knocking on the BJP’s door in Uttar Pradesh.
Change has forced itself on the BJP in Uttar Pradesh if not by design by the vagaries of fate. Kalyan Singh has finally left the BJP for good. This one time stalwart has been an albatross of sorts around the BJP’s neck with his looming presence preventing the BJP from making a clean break from the politics of last century and to advance an agenda for Uttar Pradesh that is in tune with this century.
Now that this looming shadow has come to pass, the BJP needs to shed the Kalyan baggage asap and exploit the opportunity that has presented itself in the wake of his exit.
The BJP’s strategy for the next Lok Sabha is at risk from 4 states which are its weakest link. While it is currently firendless in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, in Uttar Pradesh it has ceded ground of its own lack of initiative.
To seize the initiative back in Uttar Pradesh, it is important for the BJP to recognize how economic aspirations rather than Caste could be the basis for presenting an alternate agenda. Offstumped had developed a framework sometime back to identify high to middle income districts that present the BJP with the best opportunity to pursue such an agenda.
But then a new agenda will get the BJP only so far.
What the BJP needs in Uttar Pradesh is a Barak Obama like fresh face with no baggage from the past. A face that not just symbolizes “change” but also inspires credibility that “change” can be for real with a “yes we can do it” mantra. A face that can decisively turn politics in Uttar Pradesh away from the calculus of caste.
When one looks at the electoral field in Uttar Pradesh it is confounding that each of the principal player seeks to play to the sense of pride or entitlement of one caste or community and practically no one speaks for the pride of Uttar Pradesh. While Mayawati’s message is steeped in entitlements for the economically backward, Mulayam Singh’s rhetoric is a mish-mash of Muslim appeasement and Yadav entitlement.
It is in this communal chasm that a fresh face can make a difference by speaking for all of Uttar Pradesh. After all this is the largest state in the country and one that dominated national politics for 5 decades after Independence.
Taking a leaf out of Narendra Modi’s textbook, the BJP must seek to make this about restoring Uttar Pradesh’s place at the high seat of National Politics through a process of rejuvenation of politics and governance that speaks for all Uttar Pradesh and not merely for one caste or community.
Can the BJP produce a Barak Obama in Uttar Pradesh and make it the gateway to its return to power in New Delhi ?
Filed under: Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, betrayal of aam admi, jeetega-bharat
Yes We Can is the answer as the Obama slogan goes…
Mean while see how they twist & turns the Malegaon case.. this can be an Election issue too. It will give more milage to “Nationalist Party”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Mumbai/ATS_to_file_a_fresh_case_in_Malegaon_bomb_blast/articleshow/4003943.cms
show the real face of kaangress p-sec agenda. showing the minority affairs ministry.. and antulay’s statements.. people can add more and more. have a great campain BJP. YES WE CAN
Yoss unfortunately whatever you suggest is simply impossible because with his nepotisimic leadership Shri Advani has managed to turn me of all people into a party neutral person.
Before you say why?
In Punjab BJP won power through sheer hard work and blood/grit of our workers throught the terrorism years. We won 19 out of 23 seats contested in 2007 but what did BJP get?
Insult at the hands of central leaders who are more concerned about their yaari with Badals and thus have allowed him to keep the post of CM, Dy Cm and 4 more ministers out of a cabinet of 18 within his family. With the high command stooping to such lows for the sake of their yaari what can an ordinary worker hope for?
Why and what do workers fight for when the central leaders are much better at networking and mollycuddlng the fellow 80 year olds while the party is going to dogs.
As far as those who think that BJP is Hindu party please find out that our ally SAD has not allowed a single Hindu CM or DY CM in Punjab ever since the reorganization of state in 1966. Even now when SAD is dependent on BJP the central leaders are doing their yaari bit by not projecting any leader as Dy CM and to add insult to injury they have got SukhBir Badal installed as the Dy CM. Thus BJP and Hindus in Punjab are not even 2nd grade citizens any more they 3rd grade ones now.
Congrats to all unfortunate supporters of BJP like me.
Sakthi – edited ur comment, pls keep it topic no “hindu victimhood” pls on this post
Firebrand – I agree state politics should be left to the state parties, high command culture needs to go. The state party needs to do a better job of engaging the Akali Dal rather than run to New Delhi. The problem I see with BJP in Punjab is similar to the problem in other states where BJP is the junior partner. They need to figure out a way to be engaged without feeling cheated. Perhaps one model could be the BJP leaders from these states get a better role in the Lok Sabha as a counter balance to being the junior partner at the state level.
13 seats of Punjab will return nil to NDA now, no Hindu will vote for BJP as we allied to SAD who are all about Jat SIkhs. Situtation is bad really bad and I can easily and very confidently say that after Dera Sacha Sauda and the recent relegation of Hindu leader to number 3 spot in the cabinet we can easily count the Punjab seats from any mathematics. Its a tragedy that has taken place in Punjab BJP has surrendered its interests and votebank to Congress.
Firebrand – It would be sad if this is reduced to a Hindu Sikh issue.
Yoss,
No issues on that.. I wont blame you on this.. But Hindu victimhood is a Truth.. which we should make aware of 83% Hindus in our country being a Nationalist.. we have the responsibility
is it not?
Yossarin that has what it has become! The entire politics of Punjab has become a Jat Sikh fiefdom where if you dont have a regal Jat surname then you can’t aspire to top job in state cabinet or even number 2 spot. The state government can’t survive without BJP yet thecentral leadeship is not pressing for a fair share of power in the state.
At the end of the day if in my state CM, Dy CM, Speaker, Chief Secretary and DGP POlice are all Jat Sikhs(they are not in majority in the state) what conclusion do I draw?
I can understand your point but people on the street have stopped considering me a champion of nationalism but as a champion of a family and community particular who are in power. I cant get people to vote for NDA now. Sorry for my failure to get NDA elected this time. I will vote BJP for sure but many Sangh walas and my friends won,t even if I plead with them.
Sakthi – Those who suffer victimhood will always see victimization in every issue. It is a mindset problem that you need to get over first and then the solutions will present themselves.
Firebrand – It is sad indeed if that is what Punjab has been reduced to. i dont see how the Akali Dal stands to benefit with this alienation.
BJP produce an Obama? No thanks. Give me a no nonsense politicians who believes in the principles of conservatism. Someone like even a Modi. Let Rahul Gandhi and his elitist party attempt to emulate Obama.
Srirangan – miss the point, this is not about Obama’s ideological predilection but about his persona. Right now UP has a fatigue and deep cynicism problem with old style rhetoric and calculus. Need someone who can speak a fresh language that is inspiring enough to overcome that fatigue and cynicism. M
Yoss,
In short, you advocate BJP pursuing a development agenda in UP LS elections, and by extension across the country.Right?
Lets take UP- do you have any candidates in mind for playing an Obamaeque role in UP politics? What about Ashok Pradhan? Can someone here talk about how good he is as a politician and mass leader?All I know is that he had a spat with Kalyan Singh, and he was Labour Minsiter under ABV.
WB and TN(+Kerala) – Nothing to lose.So, some risks can be taken.
In WB, it is best to do an UP-type analysis and identify the best districts that need to be focused on.And things seem to have improved a bit in Kolkata, especially after Nano and Modi’s letter to the CM after that.My recipe would be to go alone this time, and spoil the CPM’s kitty.
In TN, BJP clocked close to 8% last time, I think. I am surprised they are not trading this % well.I am sure Vijayakant would be interested.And grapevine says Rajni wants to play a role this time.
In Kerala, it is time to consolidate the NSS and other Hindu-caste based organizations, offer a healthy alternative to disgruntled trade unions, and sell the idea of a ‘Vibrant Kerala’, to the voters directly.The RSS cadre is stronger in Kerala than anywhere in South India except may be in parts of Karnataka.
Punjab- ah..that was a surprise.I thought there’s only the anti-incumbency factor to contend with.The best BJP can do is to use the influence LKA has with the CM and SAD leadership, and ensure that the tally won’t come down by much.And give full freedom to State BJP unit to engage with SAD.Just act as the High Command for both SAD and state BJP
Please, no, Obamas please, no. India has suffered enough under socialism.
Let not the dark shadow of yet another socialist cast itself upon India.
An excellent book on why socialism will never work, still relevant after more than 100 years
http://bastiat.org/en/the_law.html
ajay – you miss the point, see reply above to srirangan’s comment
Kumar – i have no idea on ashok pradhan nor any names for who such an inspiring candidate could be. someone suggested Baba Ramdev
Yossarin,
Any possibility that Kalyan Singh was an SP infiltrator, when he entered BJP the second time?
The motive would be wreck BJP in UP in the assembly elections there and then again during the General elections.
PD
did they need an infiltrator to do damage ?
UP was a classic case of how to ride a tiger and not know how to get off it
once the BJP got within striking distance of power in Delhi they had to move away from ayodhya as an electoral issue and the fallout on the BJP in UP was inevitable.
The last decade has been a good gap to make a break from the past, they just need a credible fresh face that can make that break
Are you talking about a U.P Obama for the BJP in 2014 or 2009?
C’mon, be pragamatic, elections are in 3-4 months time!
The fight is for the 3rd place in U.P, can the BJP finish ahead of the Congress in UP, especially if the Congress is in alliance with SP?. Retaining the ten seats they won last time would be an achievement. Anything more is a bonus.
Surely this is no time for a BJP Obama to emerge, in U.P or elsewhere. The best the BJP can do at this stage is good candidate selection and then micro-managing the elections at a constituency level to maximize M.P’s from states in which the NDA is strong( Gujarat, M.P, Karantaka,Bihar), cut their losses in states like Rajasthan and hope to improve in places like Jharkand and Assam. Even if they do all this, a pre-poll NDA can atmost hope for 230-235 seats.
Yes, it doesn’t sound rosy, but that’s the best we can hope for in 2009.
Dharma hi Satya hain.
Dharma hi Nyay hain
Dharma ke paas hi Vijashree ka prasad hain
Dharma hi shiv hain
Yoss,
I understand the spirit of your call. Just the thought of another charismatic leader turning out to be a socialist gives me nightmares.
Meanwhile, I was wondering if India ever had a popular right-wing leader as PM other than Vajpayee. Would India have taken to capitalism if Sardar Patel was India’s first PM as he should have rightfully been?
Like someone suggested previously, a good start would be Varun Gandhi as BJP state leader in UP. Relatively Young, fresh and with little baggage. The way I see it, BJP has little to lose at this stage anyway.
IN any case, I don;t see the NDA or any other formation getting a decisive mandate in 2009. The country’ll first have to endure months of instability and horse trading before fresh polls are called and a decisive mandate won. 90s redux of sorts. And also mirrors what happened to BJP in KT and to JDU-BJP in Bihar before the last state polls there.
anon – of course the state level leadership is for the next cycle, but a beginning should be made this election.
ajay – C Rajagopalachari was perhaps the closest
Another option is to pick up a relative youngster from the RSS and give him a free hand running the state unit (including with ticket distribution).
After all, isnt that how we stumbled upon that gem of a leader – N Modi?
BTW, watched Obama’s speech live. Not for nothing is he known for eloquence. And the speech was refreshingly sans ideological (read leftist/socialist) slant. Remains to be seen if he governs frm the center as well.
What is wrong with socialism… India has mostly been socialist (recall Ashoka). Communism is another animal altogether.
Scandinavian style socialism with focus on healthcare and eductaion has really benefitted their society.
What the US needs right now is an Obama? What India needs may be very different.
BTW Sardar Patel was also socialist – the middle path is the safest when you hae a country plagued by poverty and inequity
Varun Gandhi’s elevation will be seen as a attempt by BJP to cash in on his family name. Besides, I’ve not heard of him since he campaigned for BJP (2003-04?). What credentials does he carry to qualify as leader of India’s largest state?
I think the BJP should become bold and announce a Primary for the next face to leade Uttar Pradesh more on this in tomorrow’s post.
With Cho Ramaswamy again meeting Jaya last week, there are still some chances of ADMK bidding adieu to Commies and join NDA. A clean sweep is very much possible if she joins nda.
I find Rahul Easwar very interesting and promsing. BJP kerala shud rope this guy in. imo, he can be in Yoss’ words an Obamic face for Kerala.
Offtopic
Did you guys see this?
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/purohit-planned-israelbased-hindu-govt…/412947/
Is this a joke?. I was happy we were spared of this farce for a while.
Even assuming Purohit did make such a statement(under a narco-test induced hallucination perhaps), would any sane investigative agency include such nonsense(which adds no value to their case) in their chargesheet?
Narayan – thx for the info.
Anon – the farce continues
Why only Gandhi family can rule India???… oh common!…[I heard lot of things about Varun Gandhi..no idea whether it is true, and don't want to publicise here] there is no other one.. Why can’t it be Modi like…Since Modi does not want to be in National Adminisration at least now. He is happy with Gujarat for now.
India need a new “SARDAR VALLABHAI PATEL” Yes of course USA needs OBAMA.. dont compare two great nations. And Obama is not for socialism he is a Capitalist only. Just dont repeat parrot like the commies/maoists wordings on Obama. heard whyKO?? kokarako of Tamilnadu is writing a Biography of Obama in Tamil language..What kind of people we have in politics.
Yoss,
Victimhood is not a mindset, it is a fact and it is happening.. at least to my limited knowledge.. Minority appeasemnt by Hindu Bashing is happening Yoss. There are good thinking folks in all the religions, but only some of the radical people makes problem
I Wonder Why can’t Bharath make a constitution amendment to seperate Religion & Politics, Religion should be a private matter not to use for votes. THEY SAY MINORITY … IN WHAT BASIS ONLY RELIGIOUS BASIS. OTHERWISE THEY ARE RULING THE COUNTRY.. SO RELIGION SHOULD BE A PRIVATE AFFAIR, INDIVIDUALLY. HOW BHARTH IMPROVES, IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT. AND FROM ALL COMMUNITIES THERE SHOULD BE RELIGIOUS ADVISORS TO THE GOVERNMENT. Take out Shariath, special subsidy to Hajj,& Jeruselam, Only Indian Born Citicizen can be in Politics! did that strike a chord! BUT WHO WILL BELL THE CAT???? is a great question to be answered.
How about yossarin from UP??
How about dividing UP in smaller states first and then projecting candidates??
Or projecting candidates based on how BJP plans to divide UP in future??
Off topic…. But the news is concerned with national interest
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090080813
“Concerned over attacks on minorities, Vice President Hamid Ansari has suggested the government to enact of a law on the lines of an SC/ST Act, which can prevent atrocities on them.”
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090080821
“The Centre has justified in the Supreme Court its decision to prohibit Muslim personnel working in the Indian Air Force (IAF) from sporting a beard and asserted that it does not in any manner infringe upon their fundamental rights. “
they should make NaMo repsonsible for UP with jaitley.
Chalo some good news after a spate of bad news. Marandi might be coming back to BJP and RLD alliance will be annouced in a couple of days.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/151422/Kalyan-out-Marandi-on-way-in.html
Kalyan out, Marandi on way in
Kumar Uttam | New Delhi
A day of losses and gains for BJP
Veteran Kalyan Singh is out of the BJP and former Jharkhand Chief Minister Babulal Marandi is on way to join the party. On a day BJP appeared losing some ground in Uttar Pradesh, indications have come it was heading for gains in Jharkhand. The BJP is also set to formalise the alliance with Ajit Singh-led RLD within this week.
“I have quit BJP for life. I was feeling suffocated. It was my political blunder to have rejoined the party,” Kalyan said in Lucknow as he announced to return BJP’s ticket to contest LS polls from Etah.
Kalyan has been sulking for long complaining that he has been ignored in the affairs of Uttar Pradesh, from where party chief Rajnath Singh also hails. This is for the second time that Kalyan, who was Chief Minister twice, left the BJP. He quit the party first in December 1999 and returned in January 2004 before the Lok Sabha elections.
Kalyan accused the BJP, which had won 60 out of total 85 Lok Sabha seats at the height of the Ayodhya movement in Uttar Pradesh, of sidelining mass leaders like him, Uma Bharati, Babulal Marandi and Madan Lal Khurana.
Refuting Kalyan’s allegation that he was humiliated, BJP said he was becoming a source of “embarrassment” for the party. “He has repeatedly created embarrassment for the party and its leadership but the BJP has always been gracious towards him,” BJP spokesman Rajiv Pratap Rudy said.
The BJP signalled that Singh’s exit would not harm party’s poll fortunes. “The party and the organisation is above and important than any individual,” BJP general secretary and in-charge of UP Arun Jaitley said, adding the party had made all efforts to placate Singh.
Meanwhile, Babulal Marandi is learnt to have met senior BJP leader LK Advani to discuss an “arrangement” between the BJP and his Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, which is a part of the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA).
Marandi is in favour of pre-poll alliance with the BJP (he is asking for three Lok Sabha seats) while Advani has insisted on his ghar wapsi (homecoming). The Jharkhand BJP is also averse to any pre-poll alliance because that could leave Marandi free for post-poll political manoeuvring.
It has been broadly agreed that Marandi’s archrival Arjun Munda, who replaced him as Jharkhand CM a few years back, would acquire “a position of eminence” in national politics. If things go according to plan, Munda would contest the coming Lok Sabha elections making way for Marandi as “natural leader” of the BJP in the State.
Marandi has reasons to be more comfortable with Jharkhand BJP, which got a new president in former State Minister Ragubar Das, who is considered close to him. Das replaced PN Singh who will contest the lok Sabha polls.
The BJP leadership is desperate for a revival of the party in the tribal State that had remained a stronghold of the parivar till last Lok Sabha polls. The BJP performed badly in the 2004 parliamentary elections and except for Marandi no other BJP candidate could win. The remaining 13 seats were captured by the UPA.
In 2006, Marandi resigned as BJP MP from Koderma and returned to Parliament as an independent in October 2006. As of now, the party has no Lok Sabha member from Jharkhand.
In the case of RLD, BJP’s core group discussed the seat sharing arrangement on Tuesday. Party leaders indicated that all the contentious issues have been sorted out with Ajit Singh and they may announce the alliance in the next couple of days.
Namo and Jaitley cannot solve the problems in UP if local leaders are not present. From what I understand from friends from UP, there are no rallies by BJP in the past.
Local leaders with credibility + issues (which they have in plenty) should help the BJP.
Things not looking good for BJP in UP unless they go for covert alliance with BSP. 5-7 seats is all they will get.
what about yogi adityanath. Dont know his leadership skills but at least has his ideology very clear!! Someone please identify some potential NaMos in UP, if not for anything but just to enlighten me a bit more on local UP politics.
Its been a long time since I have been here. I had a chance to travel by road in UP for 2 days and see for myself what the ground reality is. Its full of contradictions. Immense potential, but no ground work. All rhetoric, but no action.
I saw that there is so much scope in areas like IT and research [surprisingly yes!], Tourism and Manufacturing that UP can be be a economic powerhouse.
I have said this earlier that Kalyan is not good for BJP. He was a very good administrator but things went bad and now he was becoming too much of a liability. Good that he is gone. I don’t think the BJP will do anything to capitalize on this and move forward. It would be great if I am proved wrong.
BJP can do much better now
Sorry to sound negative, but the way things are going Kalyan Singh’s prediction of 116 seats will come true.
Rather than talk of bringing UP back to limelight, BJP can talk of breaking it up! As everyone knows UP needs to be split into atleast 4 states. Western UP (which can be called UP), Awadh, Purvanchal and Bundelkhand (with parts of MP).
BJP should announce state formation committees in each of the above regions and project leaders from that region. The Hindutva brigade can also rejoice. They’ll get Kashi, Madhura and Ayodhya strategically located in three states to propagate hatred.
I miss President Bush already!
Yossarin, got your point. BJP might need a Obama type mascot, that’s marketable and appeals to the urban young voters. But would that work in India?
93% of the black voters in America voted for Obama. Which vote bank will BJP’s Obama secure?
I like Obama personally, and I think (and hope) he makes right decisions as POTUS. But during the campaign stage, Obama was nothing more than a tool. It is the people handling the Obama Campaign that have engineered possibly the best campaign ever. They exploited anti Bush, pro Left sentiment and installed a centrist President.
Yet they followed a lot of George W Bush’s grass root “get out and vote” campaign methods .. It is these methods that BJP workers will need to adopt and adapt to the Indian situation. BJP of course needs a competent media team, they can buy one. But who’s gonna stop the leaders and the lower level leader from screwing up front of the MSM?
Okay.. maybe I’m confused. I just can’t picture a BJP’s Obama in my head getting things right. What’s lacking with BJP’s Modi? (Except for the Left Wing media smear — and that’s gonna happen with BJP’s too..)
on god can save BJP in UP.
In fact, noone is really sure what the hell is going on.
Advani seems to be selfish from the far but who knows the internal reality?…Ideally Modi should have been brought in for PM….
One thing is sure, for a common voter it looks like BJP has lost the plot.
I am sorry but the only reason I feel Modi is not being brought in for PM is since Advani does not want to go.
From here BJP will win just 3 lok sabha seats in UP. But things can change in the next 3 months
Balaji: What you mean by Kashi, Mathura and Ayodhya strategically located to propagate hatred ? Do you mean these sacred places of hindus propagate hatred ? I would like to know instances ? Can you quote instances these places propagated hatred ? From the days of Babar and Mir Baqui Ayodhya became a battle ground. Who are the perpetrators ? Were it hindus ? What about the Gyan Vapi Mosque at Varanasi and the destruction of sacred temple at Kashi ? Secularism has become a tool in the hands of anti-hindus to propagate and perpetrate hatred and atrocities against hindus.
I agree with KSV’s comments above.
And what the hell is this ‘Hindutva brigade’? Do you mean that anyone who thinks of Hindu interests in a Hindu majority country is branded a communalist?
And Mathura, Kashi and Ayodhya are important places of pilgrimage for lakhs of Hindu devotees since time immemorial. Pl do not sully these holy places by bringing your pseudo secularism.
This extract is from a news report from “The Telegraph” crying “Stink of prejudice at every step”. As far as I know, for opening any account, a person has to be introduced by an existing account holder. The editor or the report can very well contact our Reserve Bank before making public their ignorance. Then what is wrong in this:
When I introduced myself, he said: “You will have to be introduced by an existing account-holder.”
The so called Secular media is at it again. Either the news reporter, the editor of the daily, are all ignoramuses or are deliberately disseminating mis-information. Both are dangerous. They are communalising every issue and trying to sow seeds of communal discord. You may go through this report for further details:
http://www.sarvesamachar.com/click_frameset.php?ref_url=%2Findex.php%3F&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraphindia.com%2F1090121%2Fjsp%2Fcalcutta%2Fstory_10420133.jsp
I think BJP may win 15-25 seats in UP with out Kalyan singh.
If they go elections with Kalyan singh they may win 4 or 5 seats.
I don’t think Kalyan singh win his own seat.
I wish good luck BJP in UP.
Raghu, Based on what do you say that?
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The depth to which casteism has corroded the polity and influences vote system is beyond imagination. Mulayam for ex, appointed a disproportionate number of Yadavs in key executive positions. There is a strong sense of gaining influence through your caste, your “identity”. BJP did well pre-1996 because it weaved together an uncanny coalition, a grand alliance of Brahmins, Rajputs, OBCs, etc, deriving its support on the mandir movement and its remnant memories. It did have leaders across caste lines.
Today I really don’t see the party having a solid support base. It seems that Rajnath has almost begged Ajit Singh to form an alliance so that he could win Ghaziabad. Had Ajit supported BMW, BJP would have been vaporized from western UP.
And talking about Varun Gandhi, he’s OK, and although he’s the first graduate from the Nehru-Gandhi family after Nehru (discounting Rahul baba’s fraud degrees from Harvard, Oxford, god knows which other places) – just read about the treatment he meted out to his PSO and why Delhi police is so reluctant to escort him. He’s become a politician before he has even won his first election.
BJP is dead in UP, unless they do something dramatic. I think not one, but BJP will need atleast a dozen Obamas, although none are in sight.
Folx….
Der Aaaye Durust Aaaye…
No problems, such jerks shud have been dumped long time back. BJP needs spring cleaning and I sincerely hope so that this mood doe snot end here. All, BJP units in the country requires this cleaning.
I want BJP to work towards the goal of fighting elecitons on its own some years down the line.
Arjun….what about this Pradhan fellow, is he some kind of Shivraj Chauhan in making ?????
Offtopic comment, this may have been posted here before,
“Shouldn’t they be allowed to think and say what they please? They believe that jihad is their obligation. Isn’t that freedom of opinion?”
That is head of ISI, General Ahmed Shujaa Pasha, expressing his reluctance to deal with extremists.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,599724,00.html
Jiggs, Pradhan fellow is a mass leader but I do not think he has pan state appeal.
We should not expect miracles from UP this time around. BJP does not have a strong state level leader in UP.
Regardless of the real damage, stuff like Kalyan bolting has huge psychological effect and shows that the party is in disarray right before the polls. Right when it should be making spirited attacks on Congress and adding to its allies, we have a situation where people like Shekhawat and Kalyan are revolting.
I just hope this is the last of the revolts before the polls.
Long time since I have commented here.
Your statement has me intrigued, Yoss. What would be the agenda for a BJP Obama?
No baggage from the past — a large chunk of BJP votes come due to its implied promise to set right the wrongs of the past, right? Or are all the votes coming from caste + economic considerations?
For LS the Leader is LKA for whole country so not to panic as LS poll decide PM not CM.
So BJP must make sure “Right Candidate” are chosen for Each Constituency.
And BJP “Central Leadership” should start groming a Leader similar they did in Vasundhara,Shivraj,Raman Singh.
kalyansingh + Lalji Tandon+ Kalraj Mishra Troika has completely shattered the State BJP.
One name I feel could be “Rajnath Singh”…..remember when he took over as CM, from Mis governance of Kalyan Singh….the Persormance aDMINISTRATION had Improved a lot,and BJP had emerged as “Single LARGEST PARTY” in that state election.
Prashant, people do not vote for PM but based on local factors unless there is a big national issue.
Btw, I am not sure what kind of credibility Kalyan Singh will have when he campaigns for SP. Looks like a sheer opportunist who wants to promote his son.
@arjun
exactly
thats why i said BJP should choose “Right Candidate” whom the local people knows well….
just give u example of 1 constituency of Ghaziabad in last election the people of Ghaziabad was in favour of Vajpayee But where dead against BJP candiate as he was just “Non Performer” inspite winning from there last 3 times.
so Ghaziabad elected Congress……
So My point is at this stage instead of “Kaun hain Obama in UP” bjp shpould concentrate of selecting “Right Candidate” for each constituency acceptable to Local people.
In general people of UP are fed up with this govt…but if BJP fail to select right candidate…in that case there vote may go to Mayawati.
My analysis is BJP CAN GET ABOVE 20 seats if “right candidate” is selected
BJP is like a sitting duck waiting to be shot in by a hunter or an ostrich which has its head deeply buried in the sand and refuses to come out and see the real world.
I guess RSS has given up on BJP. Kalyan singh was a RSS guy. Guess RSS only told him to leave a dying party.
The party was killed by Urs truly leaders Advani and Vajpayee who refuse to goto retirement
prashant. I hope they pick the right candidates this time and get to 20 seats or so. Their coming to power depends on that.
Its really sad to see Advani override opinion of local BJP leaders in Punjab about deputy CM issue. Irrespective of his reason for doing so, naysayers will take it to mean Advani’s attempt for power grab at all costs.
Luckily for him, Kalyan Singh’s jump to SP, to get his son a ticket will be seen as enforcement of BJP party discipline. But will it actually have any effect on BJP fortunes in UP remains to be seen.
BJP is probably better off spending its energy and money in states with lots of fence sitters. Maharashtra, Rajastan, Delhi have highest potential for swing votes. Jharkand too looks ripe for a swing.
Sadly, the same cannot be said for UP, BJP is better off working to retain seats in strongholds and rebuilding the party for the next assembly elections. States may swing between ruling and opposition parties in elections. BJP is neither of the two in UP. It’ll need a miracle for people of UP to be disillusioned with BSP, SP and vote for BJP in this round.
Sukhbir Badal is Running the Govt….so just it was “Constitutional legality” as Badal Sr. is now too old.
But BJP need to take decison on this regard as BADAL jr is NOT BADAL sr, similarly as Udhav Thackeray is NOT Bal Thackeray.
One Person who can be MASCOT of BJP in Punjab could br Navjot Singh Sidhu…..if BJP decdes to go alone in Punjab in future
Making a quick macro list of how things stand for the BJP,
A+ states – States where BJP pockets nearly as many seats as it practically can. BJP is also ruling here, so performance of local government will also be a factor. Gujarat, MP, Karnataka, Chattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab(?), Bihar(?).
A states – Where BJP has a strong presence but is not ruling, and where many seats were lost with low margins in previous election. BJP just needs to pull itself together, put up good candidates and a good campaign. Rajasthan, Delhi, Goa.
B states – BJP had a negative swing in the last elections, but time is ripe for a comeback from anti-incumbency. I’ll call these “focus states” for their potential. Maharashtra, Jharkand
C states – Where BJP has a presence within the state and can manage a few seats if gets the equations right but is far from being a major player. J&K, Orissa, Assam, Punjab.
Performace in TN, AP are heavily dependent on the allies BJP manages to pick up.
Very difficult to say which way UP will swing, but it is increasingly looks like BJP has lost the plot here. It’ll need a maverick to pull of a surprise. If BJP fails to hold its seats this time around, it may rapidly descend to being a non-entity in the state.
ajay
In UP one thing needs to be analysed….Mayawati
I believe Honeymoon period for her is over
Local people are fed up with BSP goondas….
So BJP has good chance….but again All depends upon Right Candidate.
i repeat “Rajnath Singh” if had concentrated to be State Leader instead of National Leader….he could have become taller than Mulayam/Maya…
Let us Admit “Rajnath Singh” is not only GOOD Administrator,Organiser and most important Honest person.
Remember he had given Corruption free Administration during his CM-Ship.
For those who do not know, Punjab was one of the first few places in India where BJS the proto organization of BJP came into power in 1966-67. It has a traditional and strong presence in the region and without its support the Akalis have never won power independently (even though they have had majority on their own but only after allying with BJP have they ever managed the feat).
in return for the elevation of his son. The neglect has had a demoralizing effect on Punjab BJP which also helped massively in winning HP elections. The real leader of BJP in the state are M Kalia and R Bhandari and not Mr NS Sidhu who initially poodled Badals but latter fell out with Saala sahib of current Dy CM and is now facing problems in Amritsar.
The only thought doing rounds now is that Advani ji is an Old man in a hurry. The sangh has given him his last shot at power and if he fails like ML Khurana in 2004 or VK Malhotra in 2009 it might spell doom for his power and prestige. The feeling is that workers and upcoming leaders dont count but only old yaars like Badal Sahib who are promising him 400 MPs
Also one nugget Badal Jr will break the alliance with BJP prior to the next assembly polls and will ally with BSP in the coming times.
PM undergoes angiography at AIIMS
http://expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=PM+undergoes+angiography+at+AIIMS&artid=xLOsryK1oLg=&SectionID=b7ziAYMenjw=&MainSectionID=b7ziAYMenjw=&SEO=Manmohan,+PM,+AIIMS&SectionName=pWehHe7IsSU=
We wish “our” PM a healthy life and wish he recover soon.
We can understand his “Mental Health” after 5 YEAR.
Ashok Chakra for only two: Karkare and Omble
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/ashok-chakra-for-only-two-karkare-and-omble/413391/
Does MOHAN CHAND SHARMA who took the BULLET IN FRONT doesnot Desrve “Ashok Chakra”?????
WAH re Secular UPA????????
“Yes BJP can do it !” – is an expression of unbriddled optimism – an optimism shared by many people across the globe after the Obama swearing-in !
Being optimistic is a positve state of mind and is good to have. But my advise is not to keep very expectations for a BJP win in the upcoming elections… otherwise the defeat can have a crushing effect on the morale and optimism of BJP supporters !
As I said earlier sometime, plan for 2014 win and work towards it from today !!
OT but relevant
Apparently, controversy erupted when BJP MLAs took oath in the J&K assembely in Dogri, wearing their saffron Dogra pagris, in the name of the Goddess Vaishno Devi.
NC and PDP members objected saying oath can only be taken in the name of God.
@Prashant
They why was Rajnath Singh moved out of UP? Vinay Katiyar is a non-personality. Is BJP trying to run its show in UP without visible leaders? If honeymoon for BSP is truly over as you say, is BJP hoping people will skip SP-Congress and choose BJP for being the least of evils?
Wwith due respects and hope for his better health. After polls, Due to PM’s health problem, he has decided that he cannot continue to discharge duties for another five years to the best of his conscience and is best that youthful energy takes over. We tried our level best to convince him but could not. Hence high command has decided that Raul baba the symbol of youth will take over. This will be the kind of spin given to fool the public for not having MMS as Pm if they manage to come to power again.
http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/jan/21pm-health-doctors-say-no-need-for-panic.htm
@Ajay
If u recall Assembly election(2001 or 2002) bjp emerged as Single Largest Party under Rajnath Leadership.
Rajnath had then publicy said that he would like to seat in opposition..
But at that time Vajpayee under Lalji Tandon(rakhi bhai of maya) advice decided to support Mayawati as CM AND Rajnath was out of state politics.
Then we had Taj scam and BJP withdrew support from maya and got installed Mulayam as CM.
with due respect to Atalji,he too had a role in downfall of BJP in state as he was working on Lalji Tandon(sixer) advice.
i still think RAJNATH SINGH can bring back BJP in the state…..but it definately will require hard work.
As usual, a great and hopeful picture.
This is what I had said several weeks ago – thinking from a position of strength – when u have no strength – was a virtue of Late Pramod Mahajan that is missing from BJP.
Anyways, I agree Kalyan was more a baggage, and we should actually say “good riddance” like we said about Uma. Waghela, Keshubhai and others. If Uma can’t damage BJP, how can Kalyan, who could not win it for BJP anytime after 1991 (height of Ayodhya Movement). It is increadibly sad that a man who defied ill-famous “Parinda” statement of Mulayam to attain glory – is himself siding w Mulayam in need of the hour for BJP – thats Waghela, thats traitor!
So who could be our Obama. . . Candidates is key – totally agree – choose a simple corporator, I say – from the region for all 80 seats – a one who is clean, passionate and educated and as simple as the Great Pandit Deendayal ji. . .
In UP BJP Must concentrate in “Right Candidate” for each constituency…
on support its a fact:
LEFT will have No option but to support Congress
BSP will have No option but to support NDA.
I dont think AP will give a Good Harvest to Congress as Last time….so the question is from where Congress is expecting Better Result?????
THIRD FRONT?????
FORGET it
It will be either BJP led or Congress led
if Mayawati bcomes PM,then who will be CM of UP……AND she will become Deve Gowda of UP.
iF jAYALALITHA,CHANDRA BABU….Similar situation Devegowda o AP.TN.
YEAH if Prakash Karat bcome PM for 3 FRONT then it can be …….
But then WHO will Bark?????
@FIR-e-Brand
DONT worry dear in next 5 year Shiv Sena & Akali Dal will bcome “Dinosour” of Indian politics.
In that I also include Chautala..
Now a days peple go for short cuts…..
Would have loved in State BJP of Bengal,AP,ASSAM,HARYANA would have worked hard and fought election independently….but
This is one reason I admire the State Leadership of Karnataka and salute with workers of BJP in Karnataka who worked hard for so many year and Today Lotus has bloomed in Southern India
Wish if similar could happen in Bengal????
Prashant what you said is right. I was going through the assembly statistics of Ap and TN. In Tn not even in Coimbatore BJP had did well. But in more than 3 seats is Nagercoil district it had finished second securing over 23%.
What did state BJP do and it observer Ravi Shankar Prasad. They could have concentrated well in that region and got their workers to life and kept the momentum. How many time this central in charge who was boasting of chattisgarh visit tn and what efforts he put in to galvanize the party in state. They could have got the Trivandrum based leaders as well as other leaders to have good number of rallies during this period. No effort was taken. Again we have a person called Venkaih. What has he done to get the party going in his home state. There seems to be no accountability of these central incharge’s. No seems to be no action plan drawn up and no quarterly review in these states. How many time in these 5 years did the national leadership communicated with public in the three states of kerala, TN and AP. Instead of just stopping with Chennai and Hyderabad for rallies they must adress it in areas where a little effort will win them seats. Kerala is one of the most potential states in south. Other than state level leaders trying, did any othe national level leaders attempt to get the NSS and SNDP on same side and make it more robust and what were their efforts in these states. The TN state unit was only hoping against hope for aiadmk alliance and seems to have no long term and short term plans.
The five years have been wasted withiut proper strategies.
I only hope there is an underlying current.
@ Saurav,
Its impossible for BJP to remain an icon of purity in muddy waters of Indian politics. Truly fundamentalist vote bank that backs the dream of Hindutva India, is really very very small to make a political dent. Organisations like Shiv sena and Bajrang Dal have been very volatile, and displayed the acute lack of sophistication and depth required to sway public and media opinion. Only RSS is successful in building a cadre that spans generations, remains relevant and do something useful.
India also lacks parties that peddle soft hindutva. Congress would have probably taken this path if M. K. Gandhi had not sabotaged Sardar Patel’s career. In such a scenario, BJP will have to fill the void and appeal to voters who are comfortable with a less assertive version of Hinduism.
It is sad to see people like Uma Bharati drift away from BJP. If they were really concerned about Hinduism, they should have stuck with BJP to consolidate Hindu vote bank, and should sacrifice hopes of power, for they are incapable of handling and using it effectively. A good sniper need not make a good general.
Muslims may be successful in keeping their folk huddled in fundamentalists camps. But they are still in stone age as a society. For being a 2 Billion strong crowd, they have very little impact on world politics. Islam is a religion that degrades the society and imposes simplistic mindset. When oil runs out, Africa will have a larger standing than middle-east, thanks to its rich spread of natural resources. Russia, Israel, Germany, Japan individually have more influence on the world than all of Islamic nations put together.
Christianity may take pride in being the largest of religions today. But outside Muslim world, the only places where they have been rejected is in Europe and India. It is more or less a pariah in the very continent that nurtured it and spread it across the world. Even in US, Christianity banks on African-American community and rural America to supply its hardcore followers. With the exception of Brazil, South America and Mexico are still struggling to find their place. This raises the question of whether Christianity is capable of building a modern society. Like Islam, good education is a enemy for Christianity, but it is at least leagues ahead of the former in accommodating a changing world and modernity.
In that sense, only well educated Hindus and Jews are comfortable with scientific progress as well as their religions.
Hindustan was a becon for rest of the world, until it was suppressed by continuous invasions. We are free again, at least physically. A large part of the previous generation was lost to the romance of socialism and Nehruvian thinking. In rebuilding a Hindu India, there is no joy if we end up with a nation like say Pak, or for that matter, any Islamic country. So, while we can cry about lack of Hindu political power, we can take recourse in knowing that there is still scope for Dharma to find its place in mainstream India’s thinking, and that this generation is at least waking up to reality and re-discovering its roots.
Many can agree or not but the possibilty of Modi coming to national politics is 100% sure. Also other parties in NDA except Shiv Sena and Akalis will part away from BJP. I think BJP should let them go and fight alone and do karnatak in delhi
Rahul Gandhi takes Miliband on Poverty Tourism of India
Read More
http://rajeev2004.blogspot.com/2009/01/rahul-gandhi-takes-miliband-on-poverty.html
Modi Bhai must Campaign in UP during these election esp. Muslim Dominated constituency of UP.
This i am suggesting bcoz if u recall in Daily Pioneer comment section a Muslim from UP who had Migrated to Gujarat wanted him to be future PM.
mANY UP Migrant including Muslim has gone to Gujarat and have seen Modi Governance.
They may tell the Muslim of UP the real picture of Muslim in Gujarat….
just a suggestion
Prashant,
See what happened in Kerala, first they asked for explanation now the MP Abdullakutty is suspended
A P Abdullakkutty MP, representing the Kannur Lok Sabha constituency, has been asked to explain reasons for heaping praise on Narendra Modi and the Gujarat model of development.
Abdullakkutty has already received the letter from CPM district secretary P Sasi seeking his explanation on the embarrassing remarks made by him supporting Narendra Modi.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/cpim-mp-suspended-from-party-for-praising-modi/411975/
Also I don’t why BJP is silent in Maharashtra. If played correctly they can harvest a lot in MH. Munde might be another Kalyan Singh if not handled properly. Right now shiv sena is playing politics over belgaum issue. I don’t know why right wing parties have habit to do self goal during important period.
I would like to add one more thing:
Its Totally false that MUSLIM are Anti-BJP
Yes for many years MUSLIM were misled by Psec-Media and in turn they were fearful of BJP.
bUT take Gujarat…..its a fact Muslim voted for BJP
tAKE bIHAR…..Muslim voted against Laloo and Youth Leader Shahnawaz of BJP won Bhagalpur.
so if BJP gave Good Governance Muslim had voted for BJP in election.
MUSLIMS will vote for BJP all over country BUT BJP will have to deliver “Good Governance” and not “Appeasement” as we have seen in Gujarat & Bihar.
hindu muslim christain Common Man want just Good Goverance and BJP will have to deliver on this front.
Kerala MUSLIM MP prasing MODI is best example of my above comment.
[...] yesterday’s post on Offstumped made the case for why the BJP needs an Obama like persona to make a clean break with [...]
Sorry offtopic – The IBN Macaulayite mongrels are at it again. Praising the fanatical Shah Rukh
SRK plays real life hero to Kashmiri orphans (They have to be Muslims)
Press Trust Of India
Published on Tue, Jan 20, 2009 at 12:52 in Entertainment section
Tags: Shah Rukh Khan, Nanavati Hospital , Mumbai
Read Comment | Post Comment
A REAL HERO: Shah Rukh Khan has donated Rs 50 lakh for two orphans’ treatment.
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Mumbai: Two child victims of a grenade attack in Srinagar are undergoing treatment at the Nanavati hospital with the help of superstar Shah Rukh Khan who is bearing the entire cost of treatment.
SRK first heard of the orphans – Muddassar (5) and Amina (3) – from Dr Ali Irani, head of the department of physiotherapy and sports medicine at the hospital.
The actor has donated Rs 50 lakh for the children’s ward at the hospital in memory of his mother.
Dr Ali, who is part of a team of doctors that treats children hit by disasters in Jammu and Kashmir, met the kids during one of his visits to Srinagar.
Dr Ali told People magazine that he knew he could ask the doctors to treat the children for free but there would be plenty of other expenses. “So, I just spoke to Shah Rukh,” he said.
The superstar also visited the hospital and promised to introduce them to his kids as soon as they were out of the hospital.
Zubair, the elder cousin of the children told the magazine – “Amina keeps asking me if I have spoken with Shah Rukh and when is he going to take her to meet his daughter.
“She also plans to invite SRK’s children Aryan and Suhana to Srinagar so that they can all play on houseboats.”
@ Prashant
thanks for the info on UP. It is sometimes sad that leaders like ABV and LKA compromise party ideals to get a shot at power. There is certainly no doubt on LKA’s leadership. But he should remember that people like Deen Dayal Upadhya worked without aspiring or enjoying power and authority. It is their ground work that created the space for Jana Sangh’s birth. I sometimes wonder if BJP was better off if LKA had continued as party president and focused on political and cadre side of things, while nominating somebody like Arun Jaitely, Arun Shourie or NaMo as PM candidate.
@Ajay
It hurts if some says LKA wants to be PM and so compromises….
just c the LKA life:
BJP from 2 bcome 80
LKA unilaterally announced ABV as BJP PM candidate
LKA took “sanyas” from politics when RSS Sudharshan publicy said that LKA must retire…
LKA never promoted his family or relatives
And then we are agreeing to false propoganda that LKA wants to be PM hook or by crook
Certainly I agree that LKA desire to work hard may have diminished and for that I feel SUDHARSHAN was guilty for publicly humiliating him and to big extent WE BJP supported who came under the propoganda of MSM on Jinnah Episode.
i respect Atalji, BUT let me tell you I admire Advani ji a lot.
Prashant it is no fum admiring your leaer when he undertakes action contrary to party stand of being against dynastic politics. He has used the ordinary BJP worker for his personal gain and for this no worker will forgive and forget. In politics its all about perception of being fair and he is being neither fair nor sensible in muzzling the state units of his own party.
One can only say:
Khuda Mujhe Itni Khudai na De ki Apne siva kuch aur dikhai na de.
(God should not make me so power drunk that I forget about everything else except me)
He has been reduced to a power hungry senile leader willing to compromise anything and everything of his party. The struggles, lives and sacrifices all in the vain so that he can keep his yaari with Badal and hope of 400 MPs going. Shame on Advani, I shall vote BJP this time but pray that this man never ever gets closer than 100 feet of PMO.
@ firebrand
So what do you expect Advani to do withdraw support from the Akali Dal govt? Besides is it your point that the BJP on its own will win more seats than in an alliance with the Akali Dal. Also apart from talking of nepotism practised by Badal (not by Advani) what complaints do you actually have against the state administration. Is it in ineffecient? Is it corrupt?
All Advani has done is accepted the reality at the moment which is that the bJP needs an alliance to win some seats in Punjab. In the last assembly elections Akalis got 37 % and BJP 8 % votes compared to the Congress 40 %. Even if you think on its own BJP can increase its vote share I doubt it would go above 12% in which case you very well can imagine what will happen? It will gift the state to the congress on a platter
Rebuttal to your points:
The Akali Dal is corrupt as hell and they are dependent on BJP to be in power. If not for BJP whole SAD would have been cooling their heels in jails. Advani has NOT accepted reality and which is that BJP is a crucial partner of SAD and by oppressing the state BJP he will NOT WIN any seats. The votes that Akali Dal got include BJP votes as well, as Hindus in Punjab are scattered in semi urban and rural areas while in Urban areas they are concentrated. BJP is the winning factor in Punjab and by compromising his own party he will NOT get the seats that he wants but will also lose respect of people just as he has managed to lose mine. BJP is the main difference between win and defeat in Punjab and if Advani fails to see the reality due to his yaari and hunger for power god help him. On second count do you think a voter will take me seriously if I negotiate myself to a 3 rd position in state cabinet and do nothing while my workers were beaten in Panchayat polls. BJP has been reduced to a joke in Punjab and no voter from its support base is looking at it seriously and only one person is responsible for the loss of 13 seats from Punjab and that is Advani. Amrinder Singh is far to powerful for SAD to think of taking him on alone and add Dera Sacha Sauda and you get the picture.
By the way junior Badal was elevated precisely because of the adverse intelligence reports that suggested a rout of the alliance due to neglect of urban areas on whose strength the alliance came to power. Anyways May is not far off!
Let BJP come to power anf give voting rights to OCI/PIO people like us.We can provide some fire power by casting vote from overseas and neutralize the effect of bangladeshi/muslim bulk voting
BJP needs a visionary leader for UP who can play with the dirt just to come to power and then change his skin to concentrate on development and sort of game changer for future where idealogy and development takes over caste. Until then UP cannot come out of the situation. BJP needs a pure and simple caste leader in BJP who also can think beyond caste after elections.
There is a huge problem and it is not the fault of Advani or Vajpayee. Their only shortcoming is not being able to find a leader either like Modi or like Chauhan for UP. I feel like BJP is drifting away from 2009.
Kalyan was not the real problem. I guess Rajnath Singh is the problem. Kalyan can atleast bring 4 more seats and Rajnath is bringing his ego only and not even a single seat. The problem with the high command is not being able to judge this with reasoning. It lost Thakurs to SP inspite of Rajnath Singh. It lost Brahmins by competing with SP for OBC vote banks. At the least it created some using Kalyan and his ilk and now without a leader that can bring some castes into fold, I fear it is losing what it has via Kalyan.
That is UP.
Maharastra is becoming a new entrant to regionalism. There is a serious move to create a coalition of SS+NCP+Raj to create a regional front with Sharad Pawar as PM candidate. This will be a new turn in Maha politics while a disaster for BJP.
AP – It is tooooooo close to call. Latest is that Congress can still get 20 seats at this time. There are too many parties and too much of rhetoric and huge confusion here.
All in all it is not a pretty picture for BJP-2009.
yes. BJP can do it certainly. However they need to work hard