The 2004 verdict was far from a mandate for the Congress and Sonia Gandhi, however that did not stop the spin meisters from making it about a rejection of the NDA’s India Shining Campaign. The alternative we were told were policies with a social touch. It was all about the Aam Admi we were told.
As the Ultimate Perverse Alliance, UPA prepares to seek a vote of confidence, Offstumped revisits the non-performance of the Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi duo over the last 4 years to highlight how the Aam Admi has been betrayed.?
We begin this series on the betrayal of the Aam Admi with a focus on poverty.
Offstumped on Manmohan-Sonia’s performance on Poverty Alleviation
Rahul Gandhi speaking in Parliament articulated for the first time a meaningful idea worthy of public debate. Dwelling on the idea of “Freedom from Poverty”, Rahul Gandhi touted the UPA’s flagship programs with these remarks
“Freedom from poverty is not a matter of charity or luck; it is a right,? … The NREGA delivers employment as a right. The Tribal Act delivers ownership of land as a right. The RTI Act delivers information as a right. The Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill seeks to deliver basic minimum rights to those being displaced,?
Continuing further with an expression of thanks to Congress President and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Offstumped focuses this time on the pivotal subject of poverty which the Congress seems determined to tout as its theme for the next election whenever it is held.
So who exactly is Rahul Gandhi demanding “Freedom from Poverty” for ?
The Rural Ministry has been collecting some excellent data on the Below Poverty Line, BPL Census.
The estimation of poverty at the national and State level is done by the Planning Commission on the basis of the Sample Survey of Consumer Expenditure carried out by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) after an interval of 5 years approximately
So what data is available currently ?
The BPL Census 2002 has been conducted for the 10th Five Year Plan and 21 States and UTs have finalized and furnished the BPL list.
Offstumped has been examining the data to and it makes for an interesting analysis.
First let us consider which states mostly reported data BPL data ?
Only Andhra, Arunachal, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, West Bengal have 90% or higher reportage of BPL data.
So when Rahul Gandhi is talking about freedom from poverty he has no clue who exactly he is referring to for barring a handful of states the majority do not have detailed data on who exactly is below the poverty line nor do they know what exactly ails them.
For the purpose of this post let us dig deeper into Andhra the largest state ruled independently by the Congress.
Andhra is reporting 27 Lakh families to be below the poverty line. A deeper analysis of the data reveals that the districts reporting most BPL families are not necessarily in the Maoist infested Telangana region as conventional wisdom would suggest. Instead you have West Godavari from the fertile coastal region and Srikakulam along the Orissa border reporting the highest number of BPL families.
Let us further analyse Mahbubnagar, the district with the most poor pegged at about 2.3 lakh families (Mahbubnagar by the way has about 14lakh voters which puts the poor at almost half the electorate in Mahbubnagar).
The BPL data has almost 1.8 lakh families earning less than 500 rupees a month on an average. So how much of an impact did the NREGA have in providing “Freedom from Poverty” to these 1.8lakh families.
The NREGA data for Mahbubnagar reveals that 2.16 BPL families demanded employment during 2006-2007 which compared to the 2.3 lakh figure for BPL families should have the Congress celebrating the success of its “freedom for poverty” initiative
Also the NREGA paid an average minimum wage of about 80 Rs per person day which in a typical month should amount to at least Rs 1600.
But here is the catch.
Only 4086 families or only 1.9% got up to 100 days of employment which was the rationale for the NREGA that seasonal employment cycles cause the poor to be unemployed for about 100 days in a year. The overwhelming majority of the families got merely 25 days of employment during 2006-2007 which means about Rs 160 per month in income from the NREGA.
The data for 2007-2008 shows a marginal improvement with 5.8% of BPL families benefiting from 100 days of employment with the majority getting only around 35 days of employment which means about Rs 233 in monthly income from NREGA.
So here you have the flagship program of the UPA operating in the poorest district of the largest state ruled independently by the Congress barely making a difference as far as freedom from poverty goes. What is worse the number of BPL families according to the NREGA data in Mahbubnagar has gone up from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008. So rather than provide freedom from poverty, the NREGA dole is motivating more families to be classified as a below poverty.
Offstumped Bottomline: There is a capitalist twist to the socialist schemes of the Congress with a? micro-minority of BPL families benefiting disproportionately from the NREGA. So thank you Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh for this freedom from poverty that has the rural poor dependent on the local politicos for about Rs 233 in monthly income a sum by the way they were already earning from other sources before the NREGA came into existence. With more families demanding employment than BPL counts in the census all the NREGA is doing is increasing the number of rural poor.
Filed under: betrayal of aam admi
Yossarin – Could not resist posting this one for the benefit of view by maximum number of readers:
Salient points in the speech by Shri L.K. Advani, Leader of the Opposition (Lok Sabha)
New Delhi – 13 July 2008
At a women’s conference organised by the BJP’s Minority Morcha
Shri Shahnawaz Hussein, president of the BJP’s Minority Morcha; Smt. Najma Heptullah, Shri Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Smt. Seema Rizvi, other leaders on the dais, and my esteemed sisters and brothers in the audience,
I am very happy to be with you today. When Shri Shahnawaz Hussein came to me some weeks back to tell me about the Minority Morcha’s plans to hold a women’s conference and requested that I inaugurate it, frankly I had some doubts about how many women would turn up for such a programme. My doubts were on account of the ceaseless and motivated propaganda by our adversaries that the BJP is anti-minorities and, particularly, anti-Muslim.
My doubts are completely dispelled today. I am not only impressed by the numbers, but I am even more impressed by the enthusiasm that marks the atmosphere in this hall.
I would, therefore, first of all like to congratulate Shahnawaz and his colleagues, especially women karyakartas, in the Minority Morcha for this successful effort. I would particularly like to commend Najmaji, who is the prabhari of the Minority Morcha.
The Minority Morcha has done praiseworthy work in recent times. Its successful meeting in Hyderabad in April, and the forthright and principled resolution it passed stating the BJP’s position on the issue of religious minorities, drew the attention of one and all.
Muslims and non-Muslims are equal in the eyes of the BJP
Let me reiterate my party’s position once again. In the eyes of the BJP, all citizens of India , irrespective of whether they belong to the “majority” or “minority” communities, are equal. In the eyes of the BJP, all religions of the world deserve equal respect.
I totally disbelieve in any kind of discrimination on the basis of religion.
We accept – and are indeed proud of – the religious diversity of India. Our acceptance, our respect for, and our pride in India’s religious diversity stems from our basic belief that religions are different paths to attain the same goal: to seek the grace of God Almighty, who has created mankind in different religious, national and racial moulds. This belief is rooted in India’s age-old realization: Ekam Sat Viprah Bahudha Vadanti (Truth is One, the Wise interpret it differently).
In other words, religions are different interpretations of the same, single, indivisible Truth. Whether we call that Truth Ishwar, Allah or Lord is immaterial.
Respect for all faiths – which in modern times is known by the term ‘secularism’ — is the signature tune of India’s spiritual heritage. It is the bedrock of our civilization. Not surprisingly, this fidelity to genuine secularism has defined the spirit of the Indian Constitution, long before the word “secularism” was formally introduced in it during the Emergency.
Since most of the people gathered here are Muslims, let me be more specific. I greatly value the contribution of Indian Muslims to the evolution of India’s culture, to India’s fight for freedom from colonial rule, and, in the post-1947 era, to the building of a strong and prosperous India.
Just because a section of the Muslim leadership mistakenly, and for its own vested interests, pursued the flawed policy of “Two Nation” theory, and brought about the tragic division of India, there is no justification to view Indian Muslims today through the prism of what happened 60 years ago.
It is equally important to remember that there were staunch nationalist Muslims even during the long freedom struggle. If we go back to the 1857 War of Independence, we have the hallowed names of Begum Hazarat Mahal, Bahadur Shah Zafar and many others. Later we had revolutionary martyrs like Ashfaqullah Khan.
Maulana Azad’s inspiring words
And in the mainstream nationalist movement, we had Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, who in 1940 – when the Muslim League had already started talking about carving out a separate Muslim nation – spoke these inspiring words:
“I am a Mussalman and am proud of the fact. Islam’s splendid tradition of 1,300 years is my inheritance. The spirit of Islam guides and helps me forward. I am proud of being an Indian. I am proud of the indivisible unity that is the Indian nationality. I am indispensable to this noble edifice and without me the splendid structure of India is incomplete. I am an essential element which has gone to build India, and I can never surrender this claim.”
Let me add here that we are proud to have Maulana Azad’s granddaughter, Smt. Najma Heptullah, as one of our valued colleagues in the BJP.
Politics of “minorityism” must be defeated
Let me emphasise one more point. The concept of “majority” and “minority” should not be stretched too far. It may connote the numerical attribute of this or that religious community, but when the State is enjoined by the Constitution not to discriminate on the basis of religion, there is no need to bring in the “majority” and “minority” identity of citizens in every sphere of public life.
Some political parties in India, purely for votebank considerations, want Muslims to remain forever in the “minority mindset”. Their politics of “minorityism” is neither helping the nation’s development nor the development of minorities themselves.
It is for this reason that I say that the BJP is “anti-minorityism”, but not anti-minorities.
I appeal to my Muslim brothers and sisters not to fall prey to this politics of “minorityism”. Do not remain pawns in the selfish politics of the Congress and other pseudo-secular parties. Support the BJP and the NDA, and together we shall open a new chapter in the politics of genuine secularism and genuine empowerment of all the underprivileged people belonging to both majority and minority communities.
Our adversaries will say that Muslims will never vote for the BJP. But we are proving them wrong. In Bihar, when we fielded Shahnawaz Hussein as our candidate in the by-election to the Lok Sabha from Bhagalpur constituency, many people discouraged us. They said: “He will not get the Muslim vote because he is from the BJP, and he will not get the Hindu vote because he is a Muslim.”
But we proved them wrong. Shahnawaz Hussein won because he got the votes of both Hindus and Muslims.
I would like this situation to get created in more and more constituencies in the next Lok Sabha elections.
Let me make it clear that the BJP is not merely interested in the votes of our Muslim brothers and sisters. We are even more interested in their welfare, in their all-round development, and in their security.
Irrespective of what percentage of Muslims vote for the BJP and the NDA, our government, if voted into office by the people of India, will work for the welfare, development and security of Muslims with the same commitment as we shall show in respect of non-Muslims. This is my solemn assurance.
Welfare, development and security for Muslim women
Friends, when we talk of welfare, development and security, it becomes our moral duty to care for those who are most deprived of these. And this is why we have to care more for women, because women in all communities are generally lagging behind men.
In the case of Muslim women, their deprivation in education, healthcare, employment, and other parameters of development are even more pronounced.
Many studies have shown that Muslim women are among the poorest, educationally most disenfranchised, economically most vulnerable, politically most under-represented group in the country.
Who is responsible for this? There may be many factors, but as far as the responsibility of the government is concerned, shouldn’t the Congress accept the most blame because it has ruled for the longest period, both at the Centre and in many states, after Independence?
Hence my question is: A party that has done so little for poor Muslims, and a party that has done even less for Muslim women, what right does it have to seek Muslim support?
Price rise: Muslim and non-Muslim women equally hit
If we look at the record of the Congress-led UPA government, its betrayal – not only of Muslims but of ordinary people of all communities – is so stark that it has no right to continue in office any longer. I am not talking about its betrayal of India’s national interests in the Indo-US nuclear deal, because I have already said much about it recently.
As far as the common people are concerned, its betrayal and failure is most pronounced in endangering their economic security. The unprecedented price rise in all essential commodities and services has not only further impoverished the poor, but also rendered the middle classes poorer.
And when price rise drills holes in family budgets, it does not discriminate between Hindu families and Muslim families.
Hence, my next question is: a government that has snatched away the livelihood of ordinary Muslim and non-Muslim families, what right does it have to continue in office?
But let us not bother too much about the Congress. Its rule – or rather, misrule – will soon become history. There will be no Congress-led government after the next parliamentary elections, whenever they are held. No astrologer is required to predict this.
Therefore, the time has come for us to look ahead, beyond this discredited, corrupt and opportunist government.
Muslim community’s own responsibility
My party shall in due course unveil its agenda for Good Governance, Development and Security, which will fully reflect our commitment to treating all religious communities equally. I would like the Minority Morcha and its women karyakartas to give your valuable suggestions in this regard.
But I have an appeal to the Muslim community: “Not everything in welfare and development can be achieved by government policies and programmes alone. The community’s own efforts, initiatives and reforms are equally important and necessary. Therefore, focus more on education, especially on women’s education. Focus more on providing opportunities for women to be employed. Focus more on women’s healthcare. Let no one ask the question: Ladki padhkar kya karegi? Ladki jyada padhegi to uski shaadi ke liye dikkat hogi, kyonki hamare ladke bhi jyaada padhaayi nahin karte. Let both boys and girls go higher and higher in education so that they can avail the opportunities created in the 21st century.”
I should also add here that greater focus is needed on gender equality and gender justice – not only in the Muslim community but also in all communities. When we supported Shahbano’s plea in the late 1980s, it was principally on account of our belief in gender justice.
Friends, life has taught me many things. And one thing I have seen and experienced in my own family – in the way my wife and daughter care for me — is the intrinsic greatness of womanhood. A woman is not inferior to man in any respect. If anything, she is superior. Her physical strength may be relatively less, but she far outscores men in patience, courage, care for others and other higher human values.
Women have proved themselves in every sphere – on the home front as well as in public life. If the unnatural and unjustifiable hurdles that they face are removed, they can contribute even more to society. Which is why the BJP has been the party to espouse the demand of 33% reservation for women in Parliament and state legislatures. Recently, we have already enshrined this principle in the party’s organisational structure at all levels.
Let me close my remarks by invoking a couplet from the great Urdu poet Mazaz, who wrote in 1937 about the need for women to become fully active in the social sphere:
Tere maathe pe ye aanchal bahot khoob hain lekin
Tu is aanchal se ek parcham banaa leti to acchha tha
I am happy that so many Muslim women in this hall have raised the banner (parcham) of women’s equality and empowerment by standing shoulder to shoulder with their male colleagues in the BJP’s Minority Morcha. My best wishes to you.
Thank you.
Sounds good isnt it, but I dont WANT to believe this speech by LKA, globally it is proved that it is the Madarssa system which MANUFACTURES radicals,jihadis etc.
Now a couple of days ago, I read an article in TOI, where Religous Muslims were protesting against the reform of the Madarssa system.
There arguments were:
1. The usual, we do not teach or preach violent methods ( I cant even call it Bullshit!!)
2. Only 4% of Muslim populace send their wards to Madarssa ( Gee…Thats DANGER bells….4% of 190 Millions, fellas…..simple math)
This is a load of crap, the onus lies on the Muslim community themselves, they ,must assimilate themselves in the INDIAN way of life.
Ashfaqullah Khan, Frontier Gandhi, MAK Azad and other patriotic Muslims, dint go thru. this Madarssa system, Lets face it, by drawing parallels to these Patrotic Indians (as they called themselves), we are insulting their martyred souls…
Yossarin – Great analysis on NREGA. Even the most liberal western media have characterized that among the foremost of the UPA’s “handouts” governance. Worst of all for this government, the BJP actually made some really effective use of NREGA in MP and other places under its own name. The essential question, is of course, is the rural voter any better off now than he was 4 years later? Sure, some rural voters benefited from free power, free rice, free gold, free this, free that…but the question is whether they are willing to go happily away with that and the promise of more freebies in the future, or whether they are disappointed over the lack of change. Mediawalla’s in A/C cabins in Delhi/Mumbai will make a prediction, as usual.
As for this movement, Dhananjay, it is important. Some BJP leaders are building Muslim support without having to do much (Modi, Raje, etc.) except providing better quality of life. Others like Yedyurappa are trying to play the Congress’ own card in getting the community to deem BJP “touchable”…I prefer the former, but the latter may be needed to.
Look what the Commies are sayin now….
“CPM not averse to supporting UPA after next elections”
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/CPM-not-averse-to-supporting-UPA-after-next-elections/335020/
WTF!!!! These vermins have to be dealth with one way or the other….
This is an idea that BJP or its supporters can emulate. I mean a site where BJP supporters or anyone could interact with the BJP and provide suggestion on policy issues. Its practical too. BJP needs to highlight issues that the people are most concerned with. It should hear them from the people directly.
Yossarin
I am sure you must have read the news that Jaswant Singh went to UNPA with a proposal to make Mulayam the PM and BJP will give outside support to the UNPA including left parties. I fail to fathom how the BJP could do this…I mean politics is the art of impossible but I still cant digest that BJP were ready to get into power alongwith the help of Left. I dont mind BJP supporting any party or getting support of any party but to align with the Left is really cheap tactics. Amar Singh also mentioned that Advani was in the know how of this deal ..Do you think its possible?
G,
Jaswant singh recently clarified that he went to UNPA to ask for their support for Shekhawat for Presidential Election.
In the event, that Shekawat won, UPA would had been unable to have it’s nominee as President, and also the UPA Government would have deemed lost the trust of the Majority of Parliament forcing the PM to resign….
In that scenario , according to Jaswant Singh, he assured UNPA that the NDA or BJP would support(from Outside) any candidate from UNPA (not necessarily Mulayam) for post of PM.
Amarsingh ,being a loudmouth , made it look like that NDA suggested Mulayam , which is untrue.
BSP’s gameplan is the following. Get 50-60 seats in UP. Along with left and UNPA, get to around 120 seats or so.
Then they will ask UPA to support them in order to keep “communal forces” out. Congress will have to support and Mayawati will become the PM. After that God save the country. What a khichdi that will be.
BJP has to kick BSP’s ass in UP if it has to come to power. LKA moves to court the minorities is a step in the right direction since that takes away the wind out of the “communal” argument.
All these dreams and reliance on BSP’s support on part of BJP is meaningless.
Good analysis on NREGA..This may be categorised as worst/most corrupt schemes ever made in the history..
BJP is the dark horse in U.P.
I believe that the party is systematically plotting its move over there, they know that with out UP all their calculations go fore a toss.
On a separate note… We must decide on these big states that hold so much importance in elections.
UP must be broken up further, this will help parties with a Pan India base to perform better.
I had heard that Bundelkhand ( BSP bastion) was supposed to be carved out of UP, their was also talk of an Vindhyanchal to be carved out.
Samajwadi Party will be the biggest loser in this excecise if this happens.
I say good riddance, that Pig Amar Singh deserves nothing better…..
The princely SUM of Rs 233/- pm. HOPE THAT SIGNIORITA SONIA MAINO , MAINOMOHAN etc have all their properties and money seized, and given this princely sum for their families.
JIGGS
what is the situation in Maharstra, can BJP-SS can take around 32 seats there. By the way do why is BAL THACKREY tying himself in Maharstra only, he has to come out and campaign on Pan India basis. Any idea on his e-mail ID????
I came across a Collector of a comparitively rich district, which is classified as backward under NREGA just because it is an UPA dominated region. Apparently there was not even 10% of applications recvd under the scheme and guess what… Some local Congis suddenly became below BPL and made the scheme ’successful’ in the district. The funny part is there were no takers even among the local congis for such a paltry benefit.
@Balaji
There are already some groups in orkut for the mission. I rqst all here to contribute and co-ordinate in that comm.
Arjun
That was a pretty good analysis.You have figured it out well
Its all over bar the shouting-Mayawati’ ascension to PM gaddi is nearly confirmed unless BJP suprises itself with a unlikely revivial in UP.Mayawati juggernaut looks unstoppable now with Congress’s uppercaste votebank migrating to BSP plus section of Muslims hitching on to Maya bandwagon.Maya is looking at a tally of 60+ in UP.Left will suffer loses but it cannot go below 40 seats given that they have several impregnable fortresses in Kerala/Bengal
We will have a version 4 of ’secular’ government- UNPA government with UPA supporting outside.BSP+LEFT+TDP+Mayawati+JD-S+AGP+INLD+NCP+NC+TRS+
I think Karat has pretty much got his strategy worked out-cut loses in traditional bastions and achieve his avowed objective of Non-Congress,Non-BJP government
SeaLion….
I can surmise the situation in Maharashtra as ”
EXPECT THE UN EXPECTED…..
Expect : NDA to Win with a thumping majority
Un Expected: Some Machinations by the Goons to stay in power….
It all boils down to the voter turn out, if it is above 40% ….NDA WILL REGISTER A THUMPING WIN….
Prasanna and Arjun
How do you expect UPA to get 150 seats? I mean you guys are predicting around 120 for left and BSP and that means UPA needs 150 seats atleast. Do you think those seats are confirmed since you people seem so sure about them getting it?
Even if BSP and left get 100-120 seats there is no way UPA will manage 150 seats. If BSP gets 60 in UP will SP get the remaining and BJP will get nothing is it? Also, let us know which states will contribute to the tally of 150 seats for UPA? DMK is on sticky wicket in TN. Congress and its partners wont get much in Karnataka, Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand,HP, Punjab, Haryana and Orissa.
Do you mean that AP, Rajasthan, MP , WB, Kerala ,UP and NE states give UPA 150 seats? isnt this theory too far fetched?
What i feel is that from now till election there is going to be ONE MAJOR STING OPERATION from our Media.
So just wait for that dirty film
For Olympics China has Invited SONIA and NOT our PM?????
IS IT NOT A SHAM FOR US AND Y MEDIA HAS RAISED THIS ISSUE OR EXTERNAL AFFAIR MINISTRY TOOK THIS MATTER WITH cHINA
http://www.livemint.com/2008/07/14003858/China-invites-Sonia-and-not-Ma.html
VERY IMPORTANT HEARING GOING TO START IN SUPREME COURT SOON ON “fOREIGNOR HOLDING IMPORTANT POST”
http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/B4FE8D2FD9B692EB65257486002A2539?OpenDocument
prashant,
the chinese are smart, why invite the poodle when you can invite it’s master ? Because what’s a better way for the han to insult the indolent yindu, then invite a roman christian to represent their country.
[...] « How Manmohan and Sonia betrayed the aam admi – Part 1 ? [...]
Based on my math and trend, Left is likely to come down to 32-35 seats with Oomen Chandy being K face in Kerala, Mamata making inroads into Left bastions, and no other expansion of the Left base anywhere.
UNPA? collapsing…SP is gone, AIADMK/DMK are gone, INLD/AGP will be tying up with the NDA, and the last core component? Telugu Desam Party is collapsing as if the floor under it has disappeared. It will be a wonder at this point if CBN can reach double digits.
Mayawati…oh come on now, Mayawati has no friends, she will keep in touch with anybody to meet her means, but the media is in severe delusion if they think she is going to ally with the Left (What good are they to her anywhere she plans to expand?) or that she wants to head the UNPA (Who jumps onto a dying horse?)
Get it fixed
http://in.news.yahoo.com/32/20080714/1056/tnl-get-it-fixed.html
Opportunities for the Kangressis after the left’s withdrawal to push some reforms through.
Mayawati is the biggest hype of the year. Even Modi cant sweep 23 of the 26 seats in Gujarat, Vasundhara cant sweep more than 21 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, but this Mayawati will come in all of a sudden and sweep 60 of the 80 seats in UP which the BJP could not do even after the Ramjanbhoomi episode. I mean this is serious BS. She is most likely to get 35-37 seats. The SP and congress will get like 20-25 seats together. The BJP will get 15 and the rest will get 3 seats. Unless all the big guys of BJP are able to win together, these are the numbers.
Murali,
From GVL Narashima Rao.
http://www.livemint.com/Articles/2008/06/16003136/Mayawati-is-key-to-next-Govt-a.html
Mayawati is key to next Govt at the Centre
A fortnight is a long time in politics, so it seems.
Successive election defeats and galloping inflation have pulverized the confidence of the Congress party so much that some of its leaders are wondering aloud if the party will be lucky enough to win 100 seats in the next Lok Sabha polls. Thanks to such pessimism, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government is already sounding like a lame duck, almost caretaker government, gripped with more than the usual inertia and policy paralysis.
Sections of the media that were careful not to displease the ruling establishment, seem to have also given up on the UPA’s future and are suddenly critical of Sonia Gandhi’s stewardship of the Congress, conveniently forgetting that the same trademark “indecisive” leadership was what brought the party to power.
In stark contrast, the mood in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) camp is so upbeat that it has begun behaving like a party already voted back to power. There is intense jostling and lobbying for Lok Sabha seats and leaders have begun eyeing plum portfolios in the “sure to be formed” government. Many sympathizers have also begun lobbying for governorships.
But, as things stand now, none of the coalition alternatives—the Congress-led UPA, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Samajwadi Party-led United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA)—appears to have the requisite strength to be even within the striking distance of power.
Unreliable allies
The ruling UPA, which is most vulnerable, will have the biggest challenge in terms of retaining its current allies. Tamil Nadu alliance partner Pattali Makkal Katchi is all set to part ways with the state’s ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and move towards the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which could change equations dramatically in that state for the UPA. Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party is likely to fight Lok Sabha polls either independently or in a tacit understanding with the Janata Dal (United). Nationalist Congress Party supremo Sharad Pawar is keeping all his pre- and post-election options open and will switch sides once he figures out how the political winds are blowing.
Need for tie-ups
The NDA’s biggest problem is that it has no presence whatsoever in many battleground states such as Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In addition, the BJP’s support base has severely shrunk in Uttar Pradesh, where it is looking like a bit player. On its own, the BJP can do very little in states such as Assam and Haryana. Yet, together, these states account for as many as 247 seats.
The NDA desperately needs to strike alliances with potential allies in these states for the BJP to have any chance of returning to power. Some potential allies, such as the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana and Asom Gana Parishad in Assam are, at least for now, rooted in the rival UNPA alliance. For other potential allies such as the Trinamool Congress and the AIADMK, the BJP does not have much to add by way of electoral strength and hence is not an attractive pre-election ally.
The UNPA, which has fancied itself as a third alternative, is proving to be a non-starter. Its principal protagonist, the Samajwadi Party, has not recovered in Uttar Pradesh and may lose half of its present Lok Sabha strength to Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the next polls, thus ending up with less than 20 seats.
The Telugu Desam Party, which staged a smart recovery recently in the Telengana region of Andhra Pradesh, is set to improve its strength but, first, will have to contend with internal turmoil over the separate Telengana issue and the long-pending launch of a new party by actor Chiranjeevi.
Meanwhile, the Left Front, which wields a lot of clout in the UPA regime, is likely to see its strength deplete in the next Lok Sabha and may end up well below 50 seats. Come election time, the Left parties are quite likely to append themselves to the UNPA and, in fact, may end up leading it.
While it is way too early, as the political math stands right now, India may be headed for a 2004 kind of verdict—with no pre-election alliance ending up in the vicinity of yielding power on its own. The crucial difference may be that the UPA and the NDA may switch positions, with the NDA being in the lead. How much of a lead the BJP-led NDA will have will depend on its success in expanding the coalition to include a large number of potential allies, particularly from the battleground states.
That brings us to Mayawati and the BSP, both going strong in Uttar Pradesh. Thanks to her continued success in social engineering efforts in the state, the BSP could notch up an impressive 50-plus seats tally in the next Lok Sabha. Thus, in all probability, mercurial Mayawati could then decide who will govern India from 2009, much like the Left Front did in the present Lok Sabha, making her the real kingmaker.
(GVL Narasimha Rao is a political analyst and managing director of a Delhi-based research consulting firm. Your comments are welcome at thebottomline@livemint.com )
Murali,
From GVL Narashima Rao’s article.
That brings us to Mayawati and the BSP, both going strong in Uttar Pradesh. Thanks to her continued success in social engineering efforts in the state, the BSP could notch up an impressive 50-plus seats tally in the next Lok Sabha.
Arjun,
Everyone is predicting, there are no 1+1=2 answers here. My guess is she cannot jump from 19 to 50 seats just like that. Man, this is not the first time Mayawati is ruling UP, she has done it before and people have kicked her out. What social engineering, the social engineering is just election engineering, no social progress has been acheived in UP under Mayawati. Either someone is corrupt or non-corrupt, period. Modi, Raje, Patnaik, Khanduri are non-corrupt and they provide good governance. Mayawati is down right corrupt and i cant believe that people of UP will start looking upto her as an CM.
Murali,I sincerely hope that Mayawati does badly and BJP is able to get 25-30 seats on their own.
Just think of it as parting gift from uncle manmohan and aunty miano
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