The chorus is getting louder by the day with even?Mulayam Singh’s fixers and brokers finding the muse to engage in some literary flourish. If that was not enough, you since have Paswan that permanent fixture in every Union Cabinet since V.P. Singh singing the same tune.
They may not like her, but they can hardly ignore her.
They are hurling the ultimate Dalit insult if there ever was one – she has turned “Manuwadi”, whatever the hell that means.
The bottomline is Mayawati holds the key to the next Lok Sabha one way or the other. She may not have the numbers to form a government. She may not even have the credibility to be trusted for support to form a government. But she may just about have enough numbers to be the biggest party pooper since Jayalalitha in 19951-1996.
So now that she has been described as the BJP’s B-Team, Offstumped examines the question of?how exactly should the BJP engage Destiny’s Daughter – Mayawati in the run up to the next Lok Sabha ?
3 things have emerged about Mayawati as she has matured over the years.
#1 – She is no quitter.
Like Jayalalitha she is in it for the long haul. She has proven to be more than a match for Mulayam in the akhara of UP politics. Her recent win in UP is proof of enough.
#2 – She thinks big.
This is where she breaks ranks with Jayalalitha. She has a pan-Indian ambition or vision for her role in politics including that ultimate?achievement – first Dalit Prime Minister, that too a woman at that.
#3 – She makes smart adjustments.
This too is a break from Jayalalitha. Where Jayalalitha can get very stubborn and hung up thus boxing herself into a corner. Mayawati has demonstrated the ability to do the reverse – make adjustments to allow her more room to manouver as well as box her rivals. Her ability to expand her social coalition with a “sarvajan” focus as well as her push for a trifurcation of Uttar Pradesh must be seen in this light.
All of the above and the social causes Mayawati espouses make her a fitting candidate to replace the Congress as the primary pole to the Left of Indian Politics.
This reality means there cannot be an overt engagement between the BJP and BSP for it would not serve either’s interests while confusing the base of either party on their intentions.
But Mayawati needs help to get where she needs to get to displace the Congress and occupy the primary space to the Left of the political divide. That help can be provided without any formal engagement by putting rest her anxieties and insecurities while treating her as a worthy rival.
Offstumped Bottomline: The best course for the BJP would be to not just publicly deny any understanding with Mayawati but to start talking her up as the natural inheritor of the Congress’ social coalition as the UPA disintegrates and the Congress faces up to the incompetence and increasing irrelevance of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.
Filed under: Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
The only confusion to this story is we hear nothing in public. The last we heard from BJP on this was from Rajnath Singh when he said “Sabse Bada Sankat tho us-samai hua tha, jab BSP ke saath hamara sambhandh tha”. And Mayawati also has not said anything in public.
The only thing i can fathom is if there is a silent alliance underneath like what BJP had with SP in 1999.
Hi Yossarin
I just finished reading Ajoy Bose’s fascinating bio on Behenji.Pretty insightful and well-written though the author’ deep disdain of BJP manifests throughout the book
I think Mayawati is a tricky proposition.The immensely exciting social possibilities of her ascendnancy should have normally been a cause for celebration .But her brazen ways are definitely cause for concern.(BTW i think the Jayalalitha is not even a patch on Mayawati.Uma Bharati promised initially but she was always tempermentally suspect)
You have made a great point.’Left’ space of Indian politics occupied by Maya should definitely be a welcome development .The organised Left is elitist,upper-class,upper-caste dominated Stalinist autocrats with transnational loyalties.The Bahujan movement is atleast a truly ‘nationalist’ movement .No wonder Maya invokes the derision of left liberal intelligenstia
To be honest BJP has not much option left in dealing with the Maya juggernaut.They lost the plot way back in late 90’s when rootless Upper caste leaders of UP BJP marginalised Kalyan Singh.I think Advani had great visison in handpicking OBC leaders but unfortuntately ‘Vajpayee faction’ of UP BJP let Maya flourish to party’s own deteriment
I am not great fan of agressive,muscular OBC political assertion but that was the only space for BJP in UP politics
I think BJP just needs to bid their time in UP for next 10 yrs .Tactical ’soft’ alliance with Maya to stay politically afloat is the only way forward
As a admirer of Advani i am feeling pretty sad that PM mantle might elude him once again.
Prasanna – i dont think up is all lost just yet. Will expand in my next post.
Prasanna,
Dude, it is not at all that bad. Advani can still be the PM even with 15-20 seats in UP. Thats all BJP needs in my opinion, last time they had 10. They need 5-10 more seats in UP. The other states will help them home.
When sworn adversaries like the CPIM-INC on one hand and the SP-INC on the other can come together for the sake of mutual gain, I dont see why BJP and BSP cant do the same.
The CPIM and sadly, even the INC must be marginalized for the new bipolarity in Indian politics to emerge and take shape.
Even if BJP and BSP dont talk to each other, ground realities are slowly but surely pushing them into a silent cooperation. BSP undercutting INC votes in so many state polls in recent yrs cannot but be to the BJP’s gain. BJP risks a lot where it is unable to articulate, define and energize its rightist camp. Maya clearly has an identity, energy and agenda all set out for her ‘left’ camp.
Also, the derision Maya evokes amongst the left-lib untelligentsia and their evanjehadi accomplices is heartening. It means Maya is genuinely on India’s side. She has nothing to gain by the missionaries and marxists poaching ionto her flock. She is slippery enough to not fall for their bribes (she’ll well take the bribes but coolly break the expectations) or their braggadacio (she doesn’t care to be seen as angrezi-awestruck elite-wannabee).
All in all, interesting times ahead. Ensoi the ride.
Well said Sud,
But we need more than the internet to dig up if Maya and BJP are on speaking terms. Anyone here who has access to party workers. It will be really interesting. I have never been a big Maya fan, but slowly i am realizing that she is anyday much better and more nationalistic than the congress commie nexus.
Advani Ji, aap kya soch rahe hai??
http://www.dailypioneer.com/indexn12.asp?main_variable=front%5Fpage&file_name=story2%2Etxt&counter_img=2
Ties with SP no maya for Cong in LS election
Nidhi Sharma | New Delhi
After wooing BSP czarina Mayawati for her support in the bitterly-fought presidential elections, the Congress seems to be toying with the idea of entering into a pre-poll alliance with the Samajwadi Party ahead of parliamentary elections for reviving its electoral fortunes in Uttar Pradesh.
According to highly-placed sources, the alliance talks between the parties have been on for almost a month. The Congress has prepared a list of parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh which it has lost in successive elections and still does not have any candidates for contesting the 2009 polls. Of the 80 parliamentary seats, the Congress hopes to contest at least 35 on its own. The internal report prepared for Congress president Sonia Gandhi clearly states that there are 33 seats where the Congress has won in the past or has come second or polled at least 1 lakh votes or more in the last Lok Sabha elections.
Giving strong indications that talks were under way, UP State unit chief Rita Bahuguna-Joshi said, “We are not against a tie-up. Workers are mentally prepared for this.” Even Congress general secretary in-charge of UP Digvijay Singh did not rule out the possibility. In a veiled indication, he said, “There are some seats where we cannot compromise… But at present we are looking for good, strong and viable candidates for our seats.” The party has already shortlisted 20 candidates for parliamentary seats. Singh said, “We will consult these candidates to improve our performance in Assembly seats under them.”
With Mayawati clearly tilting towards the BJP, the Congress is now keen on the SP and has said so in as many words. Joshi said: “We all know which way Mayawati will go. She would be with the NDA. So we will do whatever we need to stop communal forces from forming a Government at the Centre.”
According to sources, both Singh and Joshi met Congress president Sonia Gandhi to apprise her of the situation. Sources said that the State leadership is being consulted on the tie-up. There are seats like Pratapgarh, Rampur and Farrukhabad, where both the Congress and the SP have a strong presence and arrangements on these could be a tricky issue.
Though the Congress would not have an upper hand in the negotiations with the SP, it is now looking at forming the next Government at the Centre rather than Assembly elections in UP. The recent tie-up with Janata Dal (Secular) to secure its second Rajya Sabha seat from Karnataka is also being seen as an indication of the mood in the Congress. It wants to concentrate on getting the Lok Sabha numbers and new allies.
[...] « Engaging Destiny’s Daughter [...]
I don’t think BJP will come to power in 2009. In all probablity UPA camp would get more seats than NDA group (since BSP would be uncommitted before poll). And it might well be the case that Congress gets more seats than BJP (they’ll gaining seats in Kerala, MP and Rajasthan from 2004). [Example, in spite of total failure of UPA, Congress still got 35% votes in Karnataka. They should have been routed.) So in yet another confused verdict madam president will obey the command her Master’s voice and invite them to form the govt. Leftards will anyway join to keep the ‘communinalists’ at bay. Media will be in seventh heaven after seeing their baba in PM’s chair.
Bloggers and white collar pros don’t vote for BJP. They stay at home on the poll day. If all the middle class people exercise their votes, BJP doesn’t need any issue to win.
@palash….
Sad Commentary.
“Example, in spite of total failure of UPA, Congress still got 35% votes in Karnataka”
One of our fellow bloggers here explained this trend in Karnataka, he said that in some constituencies ONLY 1000 VOTES were cast and BJP won such seats.
Voter apathy is known bug for us Indians.
We are trying to fight this bug, we have taken a initiative in our colony. We started with asking the residents of why dint they vote? Reason was surprising NAME DID NOT APPEAR IN THE ROLLS.
So self and other volunteers are taking one day off every week and completing procedures for our own neighbors.
This started some 8 months ago and we are almost through now.
I believe that this time their will be 100% voter turn out from our colony.
Some buildings near by liked our initiative and formed their own committee for the same purpose.
I am hopeful.
Palash,
No way, UPA can never get more votes than the NDA. Dude the first thing is stop thinking in terms of UPA or NDA. Go step by step, who will be given the chance to form a government, the party with highest number of seats. At this stage i have no doubt the BJP will be the highest. It may range from as low as 155 to as high as 200, but they will be the party with highest number of seats. MP and Rajasthan have always voted for BJP in LS irrespective of how they vote in assembly elec. I will not surprised if congress dips below 100. Dont forget Advani is a huge figure in north, i would say he is even more popular with the masses than even Vajpayee. If BJP is just winning middle class votes, how do you explain the fact that they bag most of the sc/st seats.
Jiggs, i am with you, NDA is coming back in 2009.
By the way Palash, UPA’s dismal performance does not necessarily imply congress rout in karnataka. Man these are very complex issues and you cant make such simple inferences. The congress vote share did indeed go down. If i apply the same ideology, NDA governance was amazing after 50 years of dismal performance by congress, why did India then not vote overwhelmingly BJP in 2004. Such questions have complex answers. In fact Karnakata was a congress bastion and in 2004 they did dismal in the state elections in karnataka, so in 2008 going by trends congress was supposed to bounce back. BJP halted this, electoral changes are never so drastic that a party can lose 15% vote share over 5 years. take it easy mate.
Murali,
I seriously hope your words come true, but somehow I don’t feel confident about the prospects. In order to achieve 200 seats they need to plan for each and every tiny village, each and every city ward, including naming the candidates six months in advance (I think this strategy has been discussed by Y in another post). Then only they can start level with Congress, who already has few yards advantage with ‘minority’ and ‘media’. Can that be achieved in the whole nation or does BJP have that many cadres?
Palash,
You are asking me questions for which you already know the answers, but those answers are being dispelled by inferiority complex within you. It is infact ahead of the congress. The Main stream media could not help karnataka, Himachal and Gujarat despite all the bashing they did to the BJP. The fact is what % of the electorate even sees these english news channels. My guess is 2-3%. And in that 2-3% most of them know the truth now.
It is the BJP which is already planning very well with arun jaitley picking up the right candidates and stuff. The BJP and the NDA has a PM candidate, let the congress announce their PM first and then they can day dream of winning.
Next the BJP has 2-3 times the cadres as the congress party, maybe they are not spread out all over the country, but they are there where it matters. The congress will compete in 450 seats and win 100, the BJP will contest 380 and win 190. It is just the IIT-Jee funda here, kam karo lekin sahi karo.
And the BJP has the entire sangh workers (RSS and VHP) working for it, and they were the key in scripting the karnataka win.
Hope this makes u feel better, just wait and watch the game my friend, and most importantly you have only seen modi campaign among the kannada masses in hindi and that itself cheered them, wait and watch when he campaigns in the hindi heartland (MP, Chat, raj, UP and Maharashtra also (in maha everyone speaks good hindi).
Jai Hind
NDA wale bevkoof nahi hain.
WHole duniya saw how UPA coalition was formed after poll results came in. NDA, with its pre-poll alliances lost flexibility and also cost its allies the same flexible manouvering space.
Lesson is that this time the NDA alliances will be semi-solid and flexible, not solid and rigid. So after the polls, when bidding, horse trading and jockeying season begins, apni janta wont be behind the kangressi dalals.
Also, a short lived bhajpa minority sarkar that is toppled by the sickulars within a few months (a la 1998, and k’taka recently) would also do just fine. Would bring bhajpa roaring back to power, me thinks.
Jiggs,
Bro, heartening to see ground level civic action by the educated and middle classes. Long overdue. Easy to blog and rant, ground level work is 1000 times better. Just like our RSS bhailog who work silently at ground level, your efforts too shall bear fruit, aaj nahi toh kal.
Time the ocuntry learnt what real governance can do. Modi’s Gujrat may now never go back to kangressi misgovernance after seeing what a clean admin can do. Similarly, India wont go back to the sickulars after seeing what dharma can do. Or so I hope.
As nauseating the prospect is of the Commies-SP-Kangressis coming back to power, you just never know the power of ’secular forces’ in India, they always seems to come together to battle the nationalists.
Mayawati is not the most reliable of characters, and behanji’s role in bringing down the 1st NDA government and putting the Indian electorate through another expensive election, wasnt exactly inspiring. The potential of her becoming NDA’s version of Karat, with the tail waging the dog, cannot be ruled out. I hope Y’s right when he says, she thinks big and makes smart adjustments. Let’s just hope M.O.D. and Jaitley can pull of a miracle in ‘09.
Sud/Aryan,
Jiggs is doing the right thing, well said Sud. I will also try and do that. For now i have convinced my mom who has not voted in the last 2 elections. Now its time to take it out. Especially since mine is among the few constituencies in TN where BJP will contest and has a good chance of winning.
Jai Hind
Guys,
I think Congress will go ahead with the nuke deal and go for early polls. They hope to get middle class support. That’s why Venkaiah said that there will be snap polls.
As regards Mayawati, Jaitley and Modi are known to be close to her. So a post poll alliance is not impossible. But I think BJP is better off without her.
Also, there is report in IBN that MMS is putting his foot down on the deal.
Arjun,
I dont think the commies have the guts to pull out, they will lose whatever they have. Mid term polls no way. The congress and commies will loot as much as they can before april 2009. Middle class voting for congress, good day dreaming by MMS.
WTHey is Dalit Prime Minister?!?! She would be an Indian PM. ‘Nuff said.
Of late shekar gupta and other dhimmedia honchos have been pushing the notion that the lok sabha polls will be ‘the sum of state level results’ and that there’ll be no national level influence or wave.
I think its critical to know whether or to what extent such is true.
If aam aadmi knows the difference between state and national elections, will he/she still vote the same way in both? Didnt 2004 see many state polls alongwith the national ones?
Somehow, I feel aam aadmi is smart enough to see that the 2 are different. And may well choose 2 vote differently.
Modibhai, jaitley and co. are saying that its the candidate and not the party that janta votes for/against. Might be true in state polls, but in national polls? What local effect does an MP have anyway that janta will reject him and not his party? Just wondering is all.
Sud,
It does have an effect, that is primarily why UP rejected BJP in Lok Sabha also. Their MP selection was bad.
@Murali/Sud….
Re. UP, dont you worry buddies….I think they will put Arun Jaitley in charge and he sure will clean up the mess.
What Jaitley has done is not ordinary, this requires an iron will and EDUCATED MOVES to do this.
In Gujarat : He Backed Modi to the core in giving tickets to 40 NEWS FACES instead of the corrupt and dissident sitting MLA’s. Result, thumping victory in all those 40 seats. Not a single lost.
In Karnataka : Again, unified the party and brought peace between BSY and Ananth Kumar factions. Result, BJP fought as an unit and we all know of our govt. in Bangalore.
Like wise HP, Punjab too have been graced by his systematic approach.
Jaitley must be revered by us, he deserves more.
I am sure UP will be given to him and HE WILL DELIVER against all odds.
Jiggs,
I hope your words come true and BJP/NDA sweeps 2009 elections. Its a promise, if that happens i will fly to mumbai and throw all offstupmed friends a huge party, completely sponsored.
Aaah, Murali said it.
Methinks if NDA returns to power with a comfortable majority then all of us offstumped regulars should get together to celebrate Dharma’s victory with some beer, wine or vodka alongwith chicken biryani and butter nan……aaahaaaa…
So majority janta is based in Mumbai, is it?? Me, I’m frm Hyderabad, not that far away….
@Murali/Sud….
What does that make us Bombayites….Guys….I WILL PAINT THE TOWN SAFFRON…..JUST WAIT AND SEE…..
U R most welcome, we will celebrate…..and God willing sooner then we have imagined.
Question is why suddenly Madam G is intrested to tie up with Amar Singh.
Just think and you will get the answer…..
Just to save AMETHI & RAE BAREILLEY.
Report suggest AMETHI is now slippery for YUVRAJ as i have few relatives in Amethi.
Also to be noted during Assembly Election BSP won Amethi constituency Handsomely.
SO WE MIGHT HAVE MAJOR SURPRISE IN 2009 ELECTION courtesy Behenji.
But these are Hope so pray.
Prashant….
What you say makes perfect sense.
Amethi & Rae Bareilly are bastions of the Nehru – Gandhi – Maino families, they must be breached.
I agree that Behenji will help us breach that……
Jiggs – Maino family??? Has the Italian finally managed to create her own special Sicilian corner in dusty UP?
oh. the royals even has its own hunting grounds in UP for the Yuvraj. Remember a Congi youth leader was gang-raped under the leadership of Yuvaraj, which was promptly silenced by dhimmedia.
Name candidates early:Cong Panel
Hah. The kangees learn fast, eh?
Looks like they’ll shoot themselves in the foot again.
By announcing the cadnidate lists early (a la the BJP) they’ll provide ample fodder of dissidents and disgruntled ticket-less sickulars who’ll unhesitatingly make a beeline for the local BSP office angling for a Maya ticket…hehehehe…. oh,all in the noble cause of sickularism onlee.
The fastest way to suicide for the kangress is to have the yuvraj/clown price sit in on the ticket allotment committee….hahahahaha
[...] the face of it the stand off between Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP supremo Mayawati and the Congress President Sonia Gandhi appears to be one of settling petty political scores. But [...]