With an uninspiring Manmohan Singh pretty much delivered a pre-emptive condolence message on the likely demise of the UPA Government, Offstumped is beginning an early countdown to the next general elections to the Indian Parliament likely to be held anytime between now and early 2009.
We begin this countdown with an offstumped re-run of the electoral map where it stood back in 2007 when the UPA Government tottered on the brink of a premature demise. Delimitation will be a focus in subsequent posts to come as the countdown to the elections picks pace.
This?post originally appeared?in August of 2007. Since then ?3 significant political developments have occured. The BJP’s Narendra Modi won again in Gujarat, the Vindhyas have been breached and the CPI-Mafioso’s chickens have come home to roost in West Bengal.
Original post follows
The mere mention of Elections was enough for the pollsters to manufacture some late Monsoon Masaala. So we are now told that if snap polls are held the Left will do badly, the UPA will do well, the NDA not so bad and Mayawati may become the new Karat.
So here is some more late Monsoon Masaala from Offstumped as well on what could happen if snap polls were held. This analysis is not so much so about who will win or form the next Government but more so about where things stand today and what poll strategies will likely get employed.
So we go state by state…….
Andhra – In 2004 saw a remarkable performance by the Congress best ever in the last 3 elections and the worst ever drubbing for the TDP. 2004 was also a watershed on account of the emergence of the TRS in the Telangana region bagging 5 seats and the BJP drawing a blank. The TRS has since lost steam, credibility and is a divided house. The Congress is bound to incur losses with its backtracking on Telangana, infighting between YSR and PJR, Communist agitations on land issues. However the TDP might not be an automatic beneficiary with Naidu struggling to define himself after the 2004 debacle. Andhra is looking to be a battleground state with about 20 seats to the TDP, 15 to the Congress and the remaining 7 splitting between the Communists, BJP, TRS and MIM. It would suit both the Congress and the BJP to prevent a TDP/CPI-CPM pre-poll tie up. (Chiranjeevi’s foray and the TRS debacle are fresh developments ) Arunachal Pradesh – Flip flop politics in this frontier state have made it a winner takes all state. Congress will likely pick the 2.Assam - Congress has done consistently well last 3 elections in Assam. The recent assembly elections saw the congress scrape through despite a highly fragmented electorate. Unless the AGP and BJP tie up we will likely see vote fragmentation negate any anti-incumbency the congress is bound to suffer from. If AGP goes the UNPA way we will likely see Congress pick up between 7 and 10 and the remaining splitting between the AGP, BJP, AUDF and others.
Bihar – In 1999 the NDA performance peaked in Bihar while 2004 saw a fortune reversal. Lalu Yadav’s RJD is set for significant losses having suffered incumbency and the loss of power in the assembly. Expect about 25 for the NDA and 15 for the RJD-Congress combine assuming the JD-U sticks with the BJP. Muslim entitlement is a potential wedge issue that the RJD-Congress will unabashedly use to pit the BJP against the JD-U.
Chattisgarh – Went to polls for the first time in 2004 since its formation. The BJP made a clean sweep last time. Chattisgarh could end up a battleground state this time around with a 6 to 4 split between the Congress and the BJP.
Goa - Split equally between the Congress and BJP with 1 each will likely maintain status quo.
Gujarat - The BJP registered peak performance in 1998 and 1999. Last time around incumbency saw Gujarat ending up a battleground state with the BJP and congress splitting the state. If Modi romps home in the assembly election one could very well see the BJP regain ground here with about 19 seats and the Congress picking 7. (Modi did romp home)
Haryana - Split opposition saw the Congress sweep Haryana completely in stark contrast to 1999 when the BJP lok dal combine swept the state. If Chautala persists with his UNPA dalliance very likely Haryana will end up a battleground state with the Congress, Lok Dal and the BJP splitting honors perhaps 4, 4 and 2.
Himachal Pradesh - Clean sweep for the Congress in 2004 will likely reverse this time in favor of the BJP 3 to 1.
J&K – Battleground state could see a 3 way split between the Congress, NC and PDP perhaps 2 each
Jharkhand - Was a clean sweep for the UPA last time should reverse this time in favor of the NDA 10 to 4
Karnataka – 2004 was peak performance for the BJP but poor leadership at the state level bungled the goodwill it receieved over the last 3 years. Congress should expect to do well. The BJP may recover some lost ground if the JD-S reneges on its promise to transfer power to the BJP. Expect JD-S to be the biggest loser in Karnataka with the Congress picking around 17, the BJP around 8 and the JD-S around 3. The BJP could lose even further ground if it doesnt fix the state leadership in time. If the BJP-JD(S) combine sticks together the race in Karnataka could tighten. (JD-S did renege and the BJP did recover major ground. JD-S is the biggest loser but we were wrong to expect the Congress to do well in this critical state, this could be a tipping point for the BJP to emerge the largest party in the next Lok Sabha)
Kerala - Peak performance by the LDF in 2004 with the congress drawing a blank. This time around Kerala could end up a battleground state with LDF and UDF splitting the honors equally with around 8 each.
Maharashtra in 2004 split evenly between the BJP-SS combine and the Congress-NCP combine. The rocky state of affairs between the BJP-SS could dent the NDA’s prospects but the Sreekrishna Commission report could end up bringing the estranged cousins together. In the most optimistic scenario for the NDA Maharashtra splits evenly with 25 to UPA and 23 to NDA. In the most pessimistic scenario the UPA takes 35 and the NDA 13.
Madhya Pradesh - Peak performance by the BJP in 2004 with Uma Bharathi at the helm. This time around the BJP will have to brace itself for losses. But then the BJP has always done well in Lok Sabha polls in M.P. for the last 3 elections even though at the state level it was a Digvijay lead Congress in power bucking anti-incumbency. It could be a 16 to 10 split between the BJP and the Congress and a couple of pickings for Uma Bharathi.
Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Sikkim - Together account for 9 seats expect 3 to Congress, 2 to CPM and 4 to others who may side with NDA or UPA depending on who gets within striking distance of the half way mark.
Orissa - The BJP-BJD combine has consistently swept Orissa for the last 3 elections. While incumbency and fraying ties between the BJP-BJD combine could hurt the NDA’s prospects but the state leadership from the Congress has not really capitalized on this. Orissa will likely end up a battleground state with the NDA and the Congress splitting 11 to 10.
Punjab, Chandigarh - The NDA should expect to keep its tally at around 10 and 4 to the congress.
Rajasthan – BJP swept Rajasthan in 2004 improving on its 1999 performance. The Gujjar fracas should hurt the BJP this time around perhaps a 15 to 10 split between the BJP and the Congress.
Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry - It was a clean sweep for the DMK lead DPA with Jayalalitha’s AIADMK drawing a blank in 2004. The MDMK with 4 has already split and the PMK with 5 has been making noises. Karunanidhi seems to have done his homework pursuing a combination of entitlement and minorytism to cut his losses. The strife within the family and the parting of the ways with the Marans will have some negative effect. All in all Tamil Nadu will likely end up a battleground state with the DPA and the AIADMK taking about 20 each.
Uttarakhand - The BJP will likely maintain its tally of 3 with the Congress and others picking the remaining 2.
West Bengal - The peak performance by the opposition in Bengal was in 1999 winning 13 seats across the Congress, Mamata Bannerjee’s Trinamul and the BJP. Assuming Mamata parts ways with the NDA and the Congress and the Trinamul repeat this performance about 8 to TC and 5 to Congress with 29 to the LDF.
Delhi - Will likely go the BJP way with maybe a 5 to 2 split with the Congress.
Andaman, Dadra Nagar Haveli, Daman Diu, Lakshadweep - Together account for 4 seats which could all go UPA
So here is what the battleground looks like based on the above
UPA – 193 (assuming BJP-SS split) or 181
NDA – 161 (assuming BJP-SS stay together) or 151
UNPA (TDP, AGP, INLD, AIADMK) – 41
Left parties – 41
Others (JD-S, NC, PDP, North eastern parties, SDF, Trinamul ) – 19
This leaves us with the heartland battleground in Uttar Pradesh making all the difference.
Uttar Pradesh - The BJP hit rock bottom in 2004 with merely 10 seats. If 2004 was a precursor to the 2007 drubbing in the assembly the BJP can only go up from here in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress with will likely maintain its tally perhaps marginally improving. The big question is how many will Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP lose to Mayawati’s BSP. Offstumped is estimating about 15 each for BJP and SP , Congress and others about 10 and Mayawati about 40.
So what should the win strategy for the Congress be ?
It has to fight incumbency in Andhra, make sure Karunanidhi holds his ground in TN, hope the BJP-SS combine falls apart in Maharashtra and of course expect to do very well in Karnataka while denting the NDA in MP, Rajasthan and?Orissa. This still doesnt get it over the hump. For the Congress to be assured of? safe tally? where it does not have to depend on the Left or allow the UNPA to make a bid – has to not just dent the BJP in its strongholds but sweep them while hoping Mayawati decimates Mulayam and the BJP in UP to the teens.
What about a win strategy for the BJP ?
It has to fight incumbency in its strongholds of Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan?and retain its tallies while doing very well in Bihar, get on a recovery path in Uttar Pradesh while sweeping the smaller Northern?states. That still does not get it over the hump. For the BJP to be?assured of a safe tally where it is within striking distance to wean away UNPA constituents into supporting it – has to decimate the Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra while making?it a 2 way fight in Uttar Pradesh with Mayawati, edging out Mulayam from contention. (Doing well in Karnataka and possibly making a headway in Andhra could make a difference but Uttar Pradesh continues to be its biggest challenge)
Filed under: Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
BJP focussing on UP now.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/BJP_banks_on_UPA_Maya_anti-incumbency_to_win_polls/articleshow/3108224.cms
BJP banks on UPA, Maya anti-incumbency to win polls
7 Jun, 2008, 0455 hrs IST,Devesh Kumar, TNN
NEW DELHI: The BJP, which is pinning its hopes on an improved performance in Uttar Pradesh to enable it to form the next government at the Centre, is banking on two different layers of anti-incumbency, the right caste-mix in the selection of candidates and the impact of urbanisation on constituency profile propel its forward march in the state.
A meeting of state-level officebearers in Lucknow on Thursday took stock of the BJP’s preparations in the politically-crucial state, which accounts for as many as 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. The party could win just 10 of these seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, and is aware that only a higher tally in the state could help it attain its goal of forming the next government at the Centre.
The party has begun the process of screening potential candidates from the state, and is hopeful of coming out with a preliminary list by August.
BJP strategists are gambling on a combination of factors to enable it to increase its success-ratio in Uttar Pradesh. These include the coming into play of two different layers of anti-incumbency (one against the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre and another against the Mayawati government) and hitting the right caste-combination in the selection of its candidates.
The party also feels that post-delimitation, profiles of many constituencies have changed, with quite a few of them acquiring a distinctive urban flavour. This, BJP managers contend, should come to their aid.
The assembly polls last year, a senior leader argued, was contested on an anti-Mulayam Singh Yadav platform. “There was an undercurrent among the people against the Samajwadi Party government. By positioning her party as the most powerful anti-SP force, BSP chief Mayawati walked away with a majority of the anti-Mulayam votes,’’ the BJP leader said.
The BSP has been in power in the state for over a year now, and BJP leaders feel that, notwithstanding the successes notched up by Ms Mayawati’s party in the by-elections held recently, the state government’s honeymoon period has ended. Important sections, such as the Jats and the trading community, had turned against the BSP, and were looking for alternative political destinations, state BJP leaders feel.
“The next round of elections in the state will be fought on the basis of anti-incumbency against the Mayawati government, with issues such as price rise, terrorism and farmers’ problems, which flow directly from the Manmohan Singh government’s mismanagement, thrown in,’’ another BJP leader pointed out, adding, “Thus, there will be two different layers of anti-incumbency against two different parties. We’re opposed to both of them.’’
The party was also watching with keen interest the change in equations between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, and reckons that the Mualayam Singh Yadav-Congress alliance was a sure recipe for making Mr L K Advani the country’s next prime minister.
Besides leading to the death of the UNPA, the decision by the two parties to snuggle themselves closer to each other may lead to a radical change in voter-preferences at the local level. “While the Muslims are likely to rally behind any such alliance, it may lead to a counter-consolidation along religious lines,’’ sources in the party indicated.
There was also a suggestion that the party should declare the names of its candidates early in some areas to allow them sufficient time to cultivate voters.
Meanwhile, the BJP’s southern elation continued with the Yeddyurappa government winning a trust vote in the Karnataka assembly without a glitch, thanks to the unconditional support extended by all the six independents to enable the 110-member BJP to cross the magic number of 113 needed for a simple majority.
Chief minister B S Yeddyurappa promised that his cabinet will take a decision on slashing the state levies on petroleum products “in a day or two.’’
“I had earlier indicated that a decision would be taken after the meeting of empowered committee of state finance ministers on VAT in Delhi on June 16. However, we are examining how best to soften the burden on the people due to the steep hike in prices,’’ he said after the confidence motion moved by him was carried by voice vote following a walk-out by the 80-member Congress group.
The 28 members of JD(S), however, did not support or oppose the motion. Declaring that he would tirelessly work to provide a clean, stable and pro-people administration committed to the development of the state to enable it to reach its pre-eminent position, Yeddyurappa expressed confidence that he would complete the term without any difficulties, despite his party’s dependence on the six independents.
@Arjun…
About time isnt it.
Looking at the situation in the country, Do you think, elections might happen as soon as December 2008 ?????
Congress wants to push it back to December 2009, to do some thing spectacular, but have a feeling that the Left might pull the plug when it suits them and that could be as soon as december this year.
Yossarin…..
I differ with you on BJP’s porspects here.
For eg. you say in Maharashtra BJP/SS and Cong. will split seats….This might be wrong….I expect them to do atleast 34 seats this time around. Yes…the recent outbursts by the SS favoring Marathi manoos might effect the voting pattern in larger cities like Bombay and Pune….But…I feel that the 2006 serial train bombings will play an important role on the MIDDLE CLASS VOTERS. I expect a good percentage of voting pattern in the Larger cities this time around.
Gujarat ….CLEAN SWEEP….
Rajasthan…I have a update for you guys( Hey Murali where have u dissappeared)….I was in Jaipur day before yesterday and from what I heard….AN EMOTIONAL WAVE IS BUILDING VERY RAPIDLY FOR VASUNDHARA RAJE….As one my business associates put it….if 21 days ago…elections were to happen….Congress would have made rapid gains….but now if it happens ….Vasundhara will romp home….
Reasons…The Bomb Blasts and The Gurjjar issue…Surprisingly …the tough stance by the state government on the Gurjjar issue is the main reason sighted by the people of RAJ as the popular support for Vasundhara.
MP : Uma Bharti will turn out to be a cropper, I was was worried but I heard from BJP worker, that she is no longer a factor.So expect better results.
Chattisgarh: Dr. Raman Singh is doing a 4.0 job in GOVERNANCE. The Naxalite problem expecially the SALWA JUDUM…people are divided, but he willperform better.
HP : After the Hamirpur by elections do you still feel Congress stands a chance? You are generous…I say clean sweep.
TN : AMMA is stronger this time….However my worry is the Hogenakkal issue…How will BSY handle it in karnataka.
Rest all is fine….Do comment.
Jiggs, elections have to be held by April May 2009.
The choice before Congress is to either hold elections in 2008 end or on time in April May 2009.
Some Congress leaders would think that more time is good since it gives them time to improve their performance. Some think that their situation could get worse over time. So finally it is Sonia’s call.
The communists could withdraw support as well if the siuation keeps deteriorating. But SP might step in.
So situation is fluid. Most likely elections in April may timeframe since even the communists need time to recover from the recent setbacks.
That suits BJP in UP since there will be a bit of anti incumbency against BSP.
BJP has to get more allies. They might get ADMK but in AP they will most probably go without any ally.
Yossarin….
Your favorite character “Manraj Patil” exposed by IE :
FROM THE HOME MINISTER’S HOME: PART ONE
Distillery to sugar mill: Shivraj Patil’s son pulls strings from father’s official residence
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/319762.html
Bring Dhaka to heel
The Pioneer Edit Desk
Reviving JWG is a good first step
Notwithstanding Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil’s efforts to downplay the role of Bangladeshi Islamists in terror attacks in India and the threat posed by illegal immigration from Bangladesh, largely prompted by his incapacity to fathom national security issues and partly by his desire to be seen pushing the Congress’s agenda of minorityism so as to please his political boss, the Government has done the right thing by reviving the India-Bangladesh Joint Working Group which has been in a limbo for five years. Ironically, the Indian side in the JWG is represented by officials of the Ministry of Home Affairs; perhaps wisdom has at last dawned on the UPA regime to insulate this key Ministry from a Minister who has the remarkable ability to put both his feet into his mouth every time he elects to speak. What is also heartening is the clear message sent out by New Delhi to Dhaka that it must do more to end infiltration by Bangladeshis, apart from cracking down on anti-India elements operating from Bangladesh. The revival of the JWG follows the devastating bombings in Jaipur on May 13 that killed at least 80 people. Investigations suggest that the attack was planned by Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami, an Islamic terror organisation based in Bangladesh, and executed with the help of Bangladeshi immigrants who subscribe to HuJI’s venomous ideology of fanatical Islam. This organisation is believed to have had a hand in other terrorist strikes, including those in Hyderabad. However, merely communicating India’s concerns to Bangladesh is unlikely to goad Dhaka into action; we have to be persistent in our efforts and use every possible diplomatic means to convince Bangladeshi authorities that in the long run, a sustained crackdown on radical Islamists will be to that country’s benefit. Simultaneously, we have to step up vigil along the India-Bangladesh border to stem the flow of illegal immigrants: Had the BSF been doing its job diligently, we would not have been confronted with such a massive problem.
Meanwhile, there are encouraging signals from Dhaka. The military-backed interim Government has arrested Maulana Matiur Rahman Nizami, the chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh, on corruption charges. Nizami, notorious for preaching fanaticism and not without substantial support at home and abroad, especially in Pakistan to which he remains loyal, is the first senior Jamaat leader to be arrested since the imposition of Emergency in January 2007. He was the Industries Minister in the hugely corrupt BNP-Jamaat Government headed by Begum Khaleda Zia which was in power from 2001 to 2006, and has been charged with accepting bribes. If the Bangladeshi authorities are able to keep him behind bars and do not capitulate before Islamist mobs, substantial and deserving damage would be inflicted on the Jamaat-e-Islami. In a sense, the process to cleanse Bangladeshi politics of criminally corrupt politicians, which has seen the incarceration of Sheikh Hasina Wajed of the Awami League and Begum Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party – the two leaders who are to blame for that country’s misery – has been taken to its logical next step. Unless Bangladeshi politics is cleansed of hate mongers like Nizami and others who are responsible for spreading the Jamaat-e-Islami’s poison in Bangladeshi society are removed from the scene, little would be achieved by way of remoulding politics in that country. For the moment, we can only wait and watch.
RUMBLINGS IN THE LEFT FRONT: ARTICLE BY ABANI ROY / GEN . SEC. OF THE REVOLUTIONARY SOCIALIST PARTY. He has destroyed the CPI – Mafioso ( Read Karat and Yechuri kind of idiots)
MUST READ:
Rebuilding the Left
The crisis facing the Indian Left is deeper than ever before, says a plaintive voice from within. But who is listening?
India’s Left movement is in a shambles. Many people thought that with the coming of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government to power on the back of Left support, there would be course correction in the country’s neo-liberal economic reforms agenda. That has been proved wrong because the components of the Left movement are working at cross-purposes.
Therefore, the Revolutionary Socialist Party has taken up the onerous task of developing a sharper focus and saving Indian socialism. On June 2, we announced a giant meeting of all Leftist parties committed to making India a truly socialist state. The Maoists who wish to abandon the violent path and take to democratic methods are also welcome. There are many Left adventurists who are waiting for the right platform and this is the first time one such is going to be offered.
Questions have been raised whether this constitutes an act of rebellion on the part of the CPI(M)’s partners in the existing Left Front. At one level, this is nothing but a move to spread a unified Leftist, democratic struggle beyond West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. There are RSP, Forward Bloc, CPI and CPI(M) units in other States as well, but they rarely act in a co-ordinated way. But when perceived from the standpoint of Nandigram, Singur and all other flashpoints not only in the West Bengal CPI(M)–Opposition track but also with respect to the intra-Left disputes that they generated, our June 2 announcement naturally raises apprehensions. We don’t deny that this is a warning to the CPI(M). They must undertake course correction and recall the original purpose of their birth. On the other hand, the CPI(M) has been invited to participate in the rally.
The CPI(M)’s top leadership, both in Delhi and the States, is peopled by arrogant people who often act in an immature way. They seem to think that they can do without consulting other Left parties. Mr Jyoti Basu is often recalled from retirement to patch up differences. The 93-year-old leader was once so distressed by the CPI(M)’s attitude that he publicly appealed to them not to break up the Left Front for at least as long as he is alive.
The Left movement has never been in such a perilous state. We supported the UPA because we thought it would check the rise of the BJP. But the opposite happened. The BJP has won most of the State elections since 2004. The Left did not undertake a single programme against the communal parties. Instead, it fought with the UPA on most issues. Here too, we did not insist on matters that affected our core concerns. The DMK had leveraged its strength in the UPA to block the privatisation of Neyveli Lignite Limited. But the Left parties merrily participated in the neo-liberal policies of the UPA. It is often said that when a Communist becomes a capitalist, he becomes much more evil than a life-long capitalist. That is exactly what has happened to Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, Mr Nirupam Sen, Mr Biman Bose and all those who justified land acquisition. Today, they are eating humble pie. They have scrapped the Dankuni and Salem project, but the damage has been done.
Recently it has come to light that the same Left parties that had shouted themselves hoarse over protecting the public sector, had blocked Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) from supplying equipment to the Sagardighi Thermal Power Plant in West Bengal. They misrepresented BHEL saying the public sector giant did not have the necessary expertise and the contract was given to a Chinese firm. Now, it is found that the Chinese sold the West Bengal Government sub-standard equipment.
The people of India are disgusted with the Left today. For this we have only ourselves to blame. People perceive the Left as blackmailers, deal-makers, China agents and all sorts of things. This is strengthening the BJP’s cause. The UPA Government has also stopped consulting us. The UPA-Left Coordination Committee has lost all purpose. That’s why the RSP decided to pull out. On Thursday, we saw how the CPI(M) used threats and intimidation to enforce a bandh in West Bengal. What was their game? Do they expect the people to believe that they were helpless in preventing the runaway increase of prices?
Mr Bhattacharjee had said at a public meeting in Kolkata soon after the UPA was sworn in that the Manmohan Singh Government would need the CPI(M)’s permission to do everything. And now, the same man is trying to fool people into believing that he could not have prevented the petroleum price hike.
Over the past two years, ever since the Singur land scam came to the fore, the RSP has been an outspoken critic of the Bhattacharjee Government’s appeasement of capitalists. Now we are saying openly that the CPI(M) has not only weakened the Left movement, but also itself. The politicisation of the police force is so comprehensive that even I, as a Member of Parliament, find it difficult to get a FIR registered in a police station.
A CPI(M) local committee secretary has more powers than an IAS or IPS officer. In Bastanti, the CPI(M) murdered three RSP supporters and when the police came, a member of the victim’s family was hauled away to the police station. Now, thanks to a very credible Opposition struggle, the people are finding the courage to give the CPI(M) a taste of its own medicine. We saw this happen in last month’s panchayat elections in West Bengal. The same people who once rigged elections in West Bengal to help the CPI(M) win, now rig to help the Opposition win. Resultantly, the Left Front lost 50 per cent of rural seats. This may be the beginning of the end.
A question often asked is, why doesn’t the RSP leave the Left Front if it is so unhappy with the CPI(M)’s big brotherism? There are two answers to this. First, the RSP has painfully built up Left unity right from the early 1950s in West Bengal and Kerala. We don’t recognise the CPI(M) as the owner of the Left Front, but just another partner. So, we want to strengthen it further. Second, we would be nowhere in Indian politics if we leave the Left Front.
– The writer is a Rajya Sabha member and RSP leader
Dear Reader while surfing the net I got this letter written by OUR SARDAR PATEL to bastard nehru related to China.
Just see how true he was:
http://www.friendsoftibet.org/databank/indiadefence/indiad1.html
Sardar Patel’s Letter to Jawaharlal Nehru
(7th November 1950)
Full text of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel’s Letter to Jawaharlal Nehru on November 7, 1950 not only deploring Indian Ambassador KM Panikkar’s action but also warning about dangers from China
My dear Jawaharlal,
Ever since my return from Ahmedabad and after the cabinet meeting the same day which I had to attend at practically fifteen minutes’ notice and for which I regret I was not able to read all the papers, I have been anxiously thinking over the problem of Tibet and I thought I should share with you what is passing through my mind.
I have carefully gone through the correspondence between the External Affairs Ministry and our Ambassador in Peking and through him the Chinese Government. I have tried to peruse this correspondence as favourably to our Ambassador and the Chinese Government as possible, but I regret to say that neither of them comes out well as a result of this study. The Chinese Government has tried to delude us by professions of peaceful intention. My own feeling is that at a crucial period they managed to instill into our Ambassador a false sense of confidence in their so-called desire to settle the Tibetan problem by peaceful means. There can be no doubt that during the period covered by this correspondence the Chinese must have been concentrating for an onslaught on Tibet. The final action of the Chinese, in my judgement, is little short of perfidy. The tragedy of it is that the Tibetans put faith in us; they chose to be guided by us; and we have been unable to get them out of the meshes of Chinese diplomacy or Chinese malevolence. From the latest position, it appears that we shall not be able to rescue the Dalai Lama. Our Ambassador has been at great pains to find an explanation or justification for Chinese policy and actions. As the External Affairs Ministry remarked in one of their telegrams, there was a lack of firmness and unnecessary apology in one or two representations that he made to the Chinese Government on our behalf. It is impossible to imagine any sensible person believing in the so-called threat to China from Anglo-American machinations in Tibet. Therefore, if the Chinese put faith in this, they must have distrusted us so completely as to have taken us as tools or stooges of Anglo-American diplomacy or strategy. This feeling, if genuinely entertained by the Chinese in spite of your direct approaches to them, indicates that even though we regard ourselves as the friends of China, the Chinese do not regard us as their friends. With the Communist mentality of “whoever is not with them being against them”, this is a significant pointer, of which we have to take due note. During the last several months, outside the Russian camp, we have practically been alone in championing the cause of Chinese entry into UN and in securing from the Americans assurances on the question of Formosa. We have done everything we could to assuage Chinese feelings, to allay its apprehensions and to defend its legitimate claims in our discussions and correspondence with America and Britain and in the UN. Inspite of this, China is not convinced about our disinterestedness; it continues to regard us with suspicion and the whole psychology is one, at least outwardly, of scepticism perhaps mixed with a little hostility. I doubt if we can go any further than we have done already to convince China of our good intentions, friendliness and goodwill. In Peking we have an Ambassador who is eminently suitable for putting across the friendly point of view. Even he seems to have failed to convert the Chinese. Their last telegram to us is an act of gross discourtesy not only in the summary way it disposes of our protest against the entry of Chinese forces into Tibet but also in the wild insinuation that our attitude is determined by foreign influences. It looks as though it is not a friend speaking in that language but a potential enemy.
In the background of this, we have to consider what new situation now faces us as a result of the disappearance of Tibet, as we knew it, and the expansion of China almost up to our gates. Throughout history we have seldom been worried about our north-east frontier. The Himalayas have been regarded as an impenetrable barrier against any threat from the north. We had a friendly Tibet which gave us no trouble. The Chinese were divided. They had their own domestic problems and never bothered us about frontiers. In 1914, we entered into a convention with Tibet which was not endorsed by the Chinese. We seem to have regarded Tibetan autonomy as extending to independent treaty relationship. Presumably, all that we required was Chinese counter-signature. The Chinese interpretation of suzerainty seems to be different. We can, therefore, safely assume that very soon they will disown all the stipulations which Tibet has entered into with us in the past. That throws into the melting pot all frontier and commercial settlements with Tibet on which we have been functioning and acting during the last half a century. China is no longer divided. It is united and strong. All along the Himalayas in the north and north-east, we have on our side of the frontier a population ethnologically and culturally not different from Tibetans and Mongoloids. The undefined state of the frontier and the existence on our side of a population with its affinities to the Tibetans or Chinese have all the elements of the potential trouble between China and ourselves. Recent and bitter history also tells us that Communism is no shield against imperialism and that the communists are as good or as bad imperialists as any other. Chinese ambitions in this respect not only cover the Himalayan slopes on our side but also include the important part of Assam. They have their ambitions in Burma also. Burma has the added difficulty that it has no McMahon Line round which to build up even the semblance of an agreement. Chinese irredentism and communist imperialism are different from the expansionism or imperialism of the western powers. The former has a cloak of ideology which makes it ten times more dangerous. In the guise of ideological expansion lie concealed racial, national or historical claims. The danger from the north and north-east, therefore, becomes both communist and imperialist. While our western and north-western threat to security is still as prominent as before, a new threat has developed from the north and north-east. Thus, for the first time, after centuries, India’s defence has to concentrate itself on two fronts simultaneously. Our defence measures have so far been based on the calculations of superiority over Pakistan. In our calculations we shall now have to reckon with communist China in the north and in the north-east, a communist China which has definite ambitions and aims and which does not, in any way, seem friendly disposed towards us.
Let us also consider the political conditions on this potentially troublesome frontier. Our northern and north-eastern approaches consist of Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling and the tribal areas in Assam. From the point of view of communication, there are weak spots. Continuous defensive lines do not exist. There is almost an unlimited scope for infiltration. Police protection is limited to a very small number of passes. There, too, our outposts do not seem to be fully manned. The contact of these areas with us is by no means close and intimate. The people inhabiting these portions have no established loyalty or devotion to India. Even Darjeeling and Kalimpong areas are not free from pro-Mongoloid prejudices. During the last three years, we have not been able to make any appreciable approaches to the Nagas and other hill tribes in Assam. European missionaries and other visitors had been in touch with them, but their influence was in no way friendly to India or Indians. In Sikkim, there was political ferment some time ago. It is quite possible that discontent is smouldering there. Bhutan is comparatively quiet, but its affinity with Tibetans would be a handicap. Nepal has a weak oligarchic regime based almost entirely on force: it is in conflict with a turbulent element of the population as well as with enlightened ideas of the modern age. In these circumstances, to make people alive to the new danger or to make them defensively strong is a very difficult task indeed and that difficulty can be got over only by enlightened firmness, strength and a clear line of policy. I am sure the Chinese and their source of inspiration, Soviet Union, would not miss any opportunity of exploiting these weak spots, partly in support of their ideology and partly in support of their ambitions. In my judgement the situation is one which we cannot afford either to be complacent or to be vacillating. We must have a clear idea of what we wish to achieve and also of the methods by which we should achieve it. Any faltering or lack of decisiveness in formulating our objectives or in pursuing our policies to attain those objectives is bound to weaken us and increase the threats which are so evident.
Side by side with these external dangers, we shall now have to face serious internal problems as well. I have already asked Iengar to send to the External Affairs Ministry a copy of the Intelligence Bureau’s appreciation of these matters. Hitherto, the Communist Party of India has found some difficulty in contacting communists abroad, or in getting supplies of arms, literature, etc., from them. They had to contend with the difficult Burmese and Pakistan frontiers on the east or with the long seaboard. They shall now have a comparatively easy means of access to Chinese communists and through them to other foreign communists. Infiltration of spies, fifth columnists and communists would now be easier. Instead of having to deal with isolated communist pockets in Telengana and Warrangal we may have to deal with communist threats to our security along our northern and north-eastern frontiers, where, for supplies of arms and ammunition, they can safely depend on communist arsenals in China. The whole situation thus raises a number of problems on which we must come to an early decision so that we can, as I said earlier, formulate the objectives of our policy and decide the method by which those objectives are to be attained. It is also clear that the action will have to be fairly comprehensive, involving not only our defence strategy and state of preparations but also problem of internal security to deal with which we have not a moment to lose. We shall also have to deal with administrative and political problems in the weak spots along the frontier to which I have already referred.
It is of course, impossible to be exhaustive in setting out all these problems. I am, however, giving below some of the problems which, in my opinion, require early solution and round which we have to build our administrative or military policies and measures to implement them.
a) A military and intelligence appreciation of the Chinese threat to India both on the frontier and to internal security.
b) An examination of military position and such redisposition of our forces as might be necessary, particularly with the idea of guarding important routes or areas which are likely to be the subject of dispute.
c) An appraisement of the strength of our forces and, if necessary, reconsideration of our retrenchment plans for the Army in the light of the new threat.
d) A long-term consideration of our defence needs. My own feeling is that, unless we assure our supplies of arms, ammunition and armour, we would be making our defence perpetually weak and we would not be able to stand up to the double threat of difficulties both from the west and north-west and north and north-east.
e) The question of China’s entry into the UN. In view of the rebuff which China has given us and the method which it has followed in dealing with Tibet, I am doubtful whether we can advocate its claim any longer. There would probably be a threat in the UN virtually to outlaw China, in view of its active participation in the Korean war. We must determine our attitude on this question also.
f) The political and administrative steps which we should take to strengthen our northern and north-eastern frontier. This would include the whole of the border, ie. Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling and the tribal territory in Assam.
g) Measures of internal security in the border areas as well as the states flanking those areas such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bengal and Assam.
h) Improvement of our communication, road, rail, air and wireless, in these areas and with the frontier outposts.
i) The future of our mission at Lhasa and the trade posts at Gyangtse and Yatung and the forces which we have in operation in Tibet to guard the trade routes.
j) The policy in regard to the McMahon Line.
These are some of the questions which occur to my mind. It is possible that a consideration of these matters may lead us into wider question of our relationship with China, Russia, America, Britain and Burma. This, however, would be of a general nature, though some might be basically very important, e.g., we might have to consider whether we should not enter into closer association with Burma in order to strengthen the latter in its dealings with China. I do not rule out the possibility that, before applying pressure on us, China might apply pressure on Burma. With Burma, the frontier is entirely undefined and the Chinese territorial claims are more substantial. In its present position, Burma might offer an easier problem to China, and therefore, might claim its first attention.
I suggest that we meet early to have a general discussion on these problems and decide on such steps as we might think to be immediately necessary and direct, quick examination of other problems with a view to taking early measures to deal with them.
Vallabhbhai Patel
7th November 1950
While we are at it, also read up what the other great man Nehru marginalised Dr. Ambedkar, had to say about Nehru’s bending and scraping before China.
Your analysis, as usual, is well-through although I don’t necessarily agree with everything.
For the opposition to come back, it certainly won’t be a cakewalk. There are still loads of states where the NDA + Other parties were battered and are now getting ready to take on the UPA + Karat.
The main states where the NDA is going to have to be on the defensive with their 2004 seats: Punjab, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Orissa. In all of these states, the state Congress in in shambles, with no leadership to challenge the NDA, and the BSP is going to be a serious threat in MP/Raj/Ch.
The BJP’s return to power depends on: (1) Putting up strong candidates in UP to bag a number of the seats the SP/Congress are going to lose from last time, which the BSP will be eyeing, too. (2) Sealing the deal with: AGP in Assam (recent events seem to be indicating this), AIADMK/MDMK in TN (ditto), and the INLD in Haryana (BJP will have to overcome its state unit to pass this one)…and if the TDP and AITC remain adamant, then they could be roped in later.
The best news of all: The Left Front is set to lose a good chunk of seats in WB to Mamata and the unpopularity of the Left Front gov’t in Kerala is already very high…with the work Oomen Chandy did cleaning up AK Antony’s mess there, the Congress alliance in Kerala could leave the Left front there bruised and battered. Imagine a Left Front in parliament with no more than 25-odd seats?
So this means we are going for another UPA govt. They can stoop to any level to get the Mayawati and or Mulayam and LF.
This can also bring in turbulance once again in BJP.
Bad News!
Hey Jiggs,
Sorry dude, could not get to the net for some reasons (was out of town). Anyway Y, the analysis is too conservative dude. Here is my take on some states:
Chattisgarh: Look at how the chattisgarh districts voted when they were part of MP. They are the same people who voted. Consistently BJP. I expect BJP to get 9 of the 11 there.
Haryana: INLD chief will ditch the UNPA (take my word on this), Om prakash was seen at Modi’s victory and in himachal for BJP felicitation and Advani book release. I will say BJP-INLD combine will sweep all 10.
Maharastra: I heard recently that Congress (on the advice of margeret alva!!!!!!!!!) is planning to go in alone in maharshtra, BJP-SS combine has no problems now and this means that with congress and NCP splitting votes NDA can well sweep 36-40 seats there. Delimitation will help BJP a lot in maharshtra.
Madhya Pradesh: This will again vote heavily for BJP, i would say 24 of the 29 seats.
Orissa: Again good governance and administration why would they even vote congress, BJP-BJD will sweep 19/21.
Rajasthan: Here too BJP will do well enough to retain 20 of the 25.
Uttar Pradesh: BJP is working on it now.
I expect the congress to lose big time in 2009. Congress alone to be frank, i wont be surprised if they dont cross three figures.
Jiggs, great update man, happy to hear that.
Murali
Anyway to put it all in a table
What i refer to as sure seats are seats I expect the party to win for sure based on past electoral trends and vote shares in particular constituencies. The Added seats column shows the number of seats they are likely to win above the sure seats
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31FRd6C_TWwcw
Check that and see how many agree with it
Some points on my table:
I made it 3-4 months back.
In Jharkhand: what i mean by BJP could well be BJP+JD(U)
Dont be surprised by J&K, in Jammu area the 2 seats have always alternated between BJP and INC.
In UP, If Congress joins Hands with Mulayam while BSP,BJP go all alone…..BJP can get seats in excess of 30….
There should be determined campaign from BJP for UP…..UP holds the key…..
BJP can think of replacing the old war horse, Kalyan Singh, with a Young Turk….
@Murali….
Maharashtra is stirring again:
Read this:
“Congress sees a friend in need in MNS”
Wary Of NCP’s Tactics, Party Searches For New Allies In State; Raj Denies Talks
Girish Kuber MUMBAI
HAVING faced back-to-back defeats in recent Assembly elections in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the Congress is looking for a prospective ally in Maharashtra. And if indications from the Congress camp are anything to go by, it has high hopes from the MNS.
In all the recent state Assembly elections, alliance partners or lack of it had let the Congress down, the party leadership thinks. This has forced the party leadership to launch an early search for prospective partner in Maharashtra, which is scheduled to go to polls next year.
In the state, the Congress has a tough fight ahead on two fronts. First, it will have to face its traditional rival the Shiv Sena-BJP. And two, it will have to battle it out with its in-house alliance partner, the NCP. The Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party has made it amply clear that it will try to gain an upper hand in the state and as such shall not play
second fiddle to it. Despite being the coalition partner, the NCP has played spoilsport to the Congress in local election.
This makes the Congress wary of the NCP. Aware of Mr Pawar’s proven track record in deceiving partners, the Congress is looking outwards for another collaborator. In this case it has pinned hopes on the nascent Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Led by firebrand Raj Thackeray, this new kid on the block has already created political space for itself in the state. In the MNS, the Congress is seeing a party that can neutralise the Sena and one which could emerge as a balancing force. So the efforts are on
to get the MNS on board.
“We have identified around 117 Assembly seats across the state where Shiv Sena has a significant strength. It’s either winner or a runner up there. We want the MNS to play key role in these constituencies,” a top Congress leader told ET, on condition of anonymity. The party wants to have some kind of understanding with the MNS, tacit or overt. Identifying these seats early would make a lot of difference since it will allow us to plan better, this leader said.
But, Raj Thackeray scoffed at these plans. “It must be in Congress’s mind. There is nothing on the ground. Neither have they contacted me nor is such proposal being discussed at our end,” he told ET. But he preferred to be non-committal when asked what would be his stand should the Congress comes with such suggestion. “How can I react now when there is not even an informal discussion between us,” he said.
The Congress leader pointed out that in the last BMC elections, the NCP had played the similar trick. “It had an understanding with the Sena. Both worked in tandem to spoil Congress’ chances in Mumbai. The Sena indirectly had helped the NCP where ever the Congress candidates were strong. With now the MNS on the scene we have someone to play the similar game,” a Congress leader said.
That was Economic Times.
I told you, that the Congress was behind this sudden spurt of violence in Bombay and Maharashtra.
If this happens the new equation will be:
Congress + MNS : Raj Thackeray as the CM
NCP + SS
BJP will split as the selfish Munde will go the SS way.
The point is that all above parties dont count BJP as a serious player and this is where Narendra Modi will step in. NM is revered in Maharashtra.
Lets see, the underdog BJP might spring a surpirse on everyone in Maharashtra?????
haha,
man, i could not stop laughing after reading that Jiggs.
politics in india change every second. In fact in my opinion this will help the BJP-SS gang. With more urban constituencies, already the toss will be in favor of BJP and now if congress goes with MNS further splitting its base, its gala time for BJP. But they should take further advantage by propagating this silently in UP and Bihar that congress is allying with MNS.
by the way how does my table sound to you (is it too optimistic or too much in advance to say anything??)
Again Jiggs,
What is more important here is how Maharashtra votes for LS and State level polls. The need of the hour is BJP+SS clinching the LS seats. And as you said Modi will have greater impact on the lok sabha polls than in assembly polls.
I have privilege of watching maharasthra politics for 5 years. On basis of that,
1) NCP is stronger than it was before.
2) SS is stronger than it was before.
3) BJP is as it is. NM can bring turnaround here. Dont expect much from munde, I have always found him lurking with NCP people in and around pune. Dont know what he wanted to achieve, but looks like he is stakeholder in many projects like magarpatta city, lavasha, IT parks etc.
4) Congress is weaker than ever.
It right time for white wash congress completely from Maharasthra. If congress is pinning hopes on MNS, it is on suicidal mode.
Regarding Gujarat,
We have asked for funding from UNESCO to save endangered congressi species. Let me know if you guyz can help in some way before congressi become extinct species.
From the Assam Tribune:
“The AGP is also ready for seat adjustment with like minded political parties, said Saikia.
On the other hand, the State unit of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is concentrating on increasing the number and strength of its booth committees, said that the list of the candidates would be finalised after consultation with the central leadership. The party is ready for seat adjustment with like-minded regional parties, and in the event of non-fruition of such an endeavour, the party is ready to go alone.”
I think this will be important. Bijoya Chakravarty, an ex-union minister who is the BJP’s “face” in Assam, also told the media the party is trying for an adjustment.
Gujjuman,
Good one on Gujarat. I will not fund congress, but i am ready to fund a congress holocaust museum in gujarat.
@Murali
I will say that your analysis is best case scenario for NDA government.
ur right gujjuman, but then the real case scene would be some where between pessimistic and best case, so i would still say that in all probability NDA will end up with close to 250 seats. they have to look around for 20 seats somewhere.
Nothing will please me more than BJP winning LS seats in Bengal.
BJP gains ground in rural Bengal
http://www.organiser.org/dynamic/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=241&page=10
West Bengal
BJP gains ground in rural Bengal
Panchayat poll analysis
By Ranjit Roy
Four Panchayat Samitis will be directly under BJP against only one in the last 2003 Panchayat elections in the state. Moreover, there will be 76 BJP Pradhans in the lowest tier of Panchayati Raj.
Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal is steadily gaining ground in rural areas. In recently concluded Panchayat elections the party captured two Zilla Parishad seats in Malda and Birbhum. In addition, the party has wrested 184 seats in Panchayat Samitis and another 1,271 Gram Panchayat seats mostly from the ruling CPM.
The BJP state secretary Rahul Sinha had earlier appealed to all anti-Left parties to forge an alliance against the Left forces in Panchayat elections. Although Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress, largest Opposition Party in West Bengal, angrily turned down Sinha’s appeal, it was ordinary villagers who had forced such an anti-Left alliance without party flags at least in seven districts. The BJP candidates without their party symbol (lotus) won 9 seats in Samitis and 159 seats in Gram Panchayats. As a result, four Panchayat Samitis will be directly under BJP against only one in the last 2003 Panchayat elections in the state. Moreover, there will be 76 BJP Pradhans in the lowest tier of Panchayati Raj.
No doubt, the success is phenomenon considering widespread violence and rigging unleashed by the CPM during the election run-up this year.
As Bengal watched red terror with fear and disbelief, the state’s three-phase seventh Panchayat elections came to a bloody end on May 18. At least 24 people were killed and another 150 maimed by armed gangs of red brigade during the three-phase polling. This is a clear reminder that rural governance through peaceful democratic process is not possible under the CPM-led government.
The results of the seventh Panchayat elections in the state have clearly showed that the BJP has its support base in all the 17 districts of West Bengal. However, success of the Opposition in rural Bengal against the ruling CPM is only the beginning of a long bitter tussle to end the misrule of the communists in the state. True, there will be polling in six or seven municipalities on June 29. But the real trial of strength will be witnessed only in the Lok Sabha poll scheduled to be held early next year. No individual political party has organisational network to match the CPM’s time-tested election machinery in the state. But if major Opposition parties are united together to fight against the Left in 1:1 formula in order to prevent division of anti-Left votes then it is possible to defeat Left candidates in majority Lok Sabha seats. The effectiveness of this formula has been proved in the recent Panchayat elections as all conscious Opposition candidates have won in Gram Panchayat poll. There was no conscious candidate in Zilla Parishads and in most Panchayat Samitis thanks to Mamata Banerjee’s dictum, “My party Trinamul Congress will go alone in Panchayat elections. We shall never forge an alliance with the BJP as well as Congress. My party has strength to defeat the CPM.”
West Bengal BJP’s success in 2008 Panchayat elections District Panchayat Samiti Gram Panchayat
Cooch Behar 17 84
Jalpaiguri 13 97
North Dinajpur – 13
South Dinajpur 3 41
Malda 17 72
Murshidabad 3 29
Nadia 33 225
N-24 Pargana 25 143
S-24 Pargana 5 45
Howrah 8 89
Hooghly 3 32
Burdwan 12 121
Birbhum 13 77
Bankura 8 66
Purulia 3 26
E-Midnapore 8 61
W-Midnapore 11 46
@Murali/gujjuman…..
Murali…saw your table, you are generous with the UPA goons in Maharashtra….I still maintain NDA will gain immesely here…my take is 34 – 36 seats.
Gujjuman….NCP is stronger, but this is something superficial. Congress is fed up of the BLACKMAIL politics of NCP, who has left no doubt that it wants a revenge for the Congress acts of 2004, when it was actually NCP which had more seats and was the larger partner, but the congress muscled around and had its say.However,NCP cannot win on its own.
Read this today’s ET:
‘Go alone’ talk gains currency in state Cong
Our Political Bureau NEW DELHI
WITH elections to the Lok Sabha less than a year away, parties have begun campaigns to seek a better deal. The Congress, which shares power at the Centre and in the state with NCP, flagged off the issue on Sunday when its state unit president Prabha Rau advocated the ‘Ekla chalo re’ theme.
While addressing party workers in Pune on Sunday night, Ms Rau wanted the Congress to go it alone in the next round of general election. Her views were endorsed by the AICC general secretary in charge of the state, Margaret Alva, who claimed that the alliance with the NCP had, in fact, weakened their party in the state.
Their remarks on the subject, however, may just be part of a gameplan to wangle a better seat-sharing deal with NCP in Maharashtra, which sends as many as 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The state assembly too goes to polls soon after, and with the Congress not really in the pink of health in Maharashtra, the leadership would surely hope to strike a fair deal with NCP.
The growing rancour between the two sides point to a difficult year ahead for the alliance partners.
Ms Rau’s assertion that the Congress must fight the next election alone may just be aimed at infusing some fighting spirit in the party and ensuring its upper hand in the alliance, but it does pose a big challenge for the high command.
There is a growing realisation within the Congress and BJP that Lok Sabha polls are increasingly assuming the shape of an aggregate of state elections. Forming the right kind of alliances in states is an essential ingredient in this process. Hence, building rapport with powerful regional chieftains becomes important. BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, LK Advani, drew attention to this phenomenon in his concluding remarks at his party’s national executive meeting here on June 2.
NCP’s exit from the UPA will strengthen BJP, which is basking in the glory of surprise victories in recent assembly polls. With other tentative UPA allies, such as LJP saying they will fight the 2009 polls alone, the NCP’s exit will only make it a diminished political force.
I have a queer feeling, that against all odds, Maharashtra might do a Karnataka 2004…i.e….HUNG ASSEMBLY.
As you say Murali….Maharashtra is too big for any political party to ignore.
However, what happened in Karnataka can also happen in Maharashtra….i.e…Four years of mis rule with Prez rule in it and then BJP will come out as the single largest party.
The fact remains that BJP is single most popular party in India today. Cong, NCP,SS,MNS they all know it.
All above machinations are to keep BJP at bay. Gopinath Munde is playing the role of a quisling here….he must be ejected out of the party.
Lets see what happens in 2009.
@arjun…..
I read that too in the Organiser. I am with it…SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE.
BJP has to start with the grass root level and come up slowly to be a mjaor force in Bengal.
This must be a long term plan for Bengal.
Great going BJP….
Jiggs,
Maharashtra is important on 2 accounts:
1. It sends 48 MPS to the LS.
2. It is among India’s most industrialised states and it is good for our economy if it is under BJP.
By the way was Munde an RSS guy before he joined BJP. But anyway of late i am seeing Modi slowly coming very often to Maha for public rallies and stuff. Lets see how it works out. If NCP and Congress go alone, cheers buddy, they will split their votes like crazy and BJP will sweep. In fact congress will lose more than NCP. Becos NCP will win those 4-6 seats as usual. Congress will flop, which means NDA can wrap up 35-37 seats easy.
cant wait to see this
Both the culprits TN & AP will hopefully do well in ‘09. BJP should have a cautious agreement with Jaya in TN, as she tends to give only less probable and hopeless constituencies to BJP in the seats arrangement.
Martian,
Being from TN, I can say this much. BJP can only hope to win 2-3 seats (Nagercoil, Coimbatore North and South) after delimitation. So I would say BJP is better off allowing Jaya to contest in the rest and hope that she wins seats for NDA. BJP has no root level workers in TN, nor will people there buy the BJP ideology. My suggestion is BJP should rather work on making sure that Jaya is a reliable ally this time around. Since someone like Modi (he talks no nonsense) went to meet Jaya, i would assume, that Jaya was sent a message on lines like this: “Look you have no allies in TN or at the national level especially after u withdrew from UNPA, We will give you some ministerial berth at the center and hope that AIADMK wins some seats for the NDA, but beware, no more games”
I guess Jaya should read it right.
@Murali
I think 3 more bright chances are there in Krishnagiri(Hosur), thirunavukkarasar seat and Chennai South.
6 seats + kanyakumari + thiruchi.
Narayan,
Good to hear that, but I would say BJP and AIADMK should play it very smart and carefully around this time in TN, last time TN was the flip state NDA could not get even 1 of the 39 seats there. They need to see through the cracks in DMK and pit Stalin against Azhagiri very well. I know Vijaykanth is overhyped, but CPI is also gaining ground in TN (though TN crowd is smart enough not to allow CPI in a big way there).
Advani warns against complacency.
No complacency, Advani tells BJP
NEW DELHI: Focused on preparations for the coming Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate L K Advani has expressed his anxiety over the hype post-Karnataka victory and warned his partymen against getting carried away by the mood that the party is on a winning spree and that the battle for the Lok Sabha has already been won.
Reminding senior BJP members in a meeting of the party as well as during his address to the national executive of what had happened during the 2004 polls, when the party took it for granted that Atal Bihari Vajpayee was sure to return to the PMO, he warned his colleagues against getting complacent, telling them that much groundwork needs to be done if the party has to win the next Lok Sabha.
Talking to TOI, Advani gave instances of cases in the 2004 polls when committed voters, optimistic of Vajpayee’s return to the PMO and calculating that the defeat of a couple of candidates would make no difference, worked to defeat the party’s candidates because of local rivalries.
Speaking on the groundwork that needs to be focused on, Advani mentioned Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where the numbers need to go up if BJP were to come to power, since party-ruled states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan had sent in a good number of MPs the last time, which can go up a wee bit.
The fact that BJP faces anti-incumbency in those states may come in the way of further improvement.
Advani will be travelling across the country, reviving the Sankalp Yatra, that had stopped midway since the prospects of early Lok Sabha polls had died down.
His tours will be pegged to other issues like the launch of his book, “My Country, My Life” in translated versions. While the Sankalp Yatra begins again on June 27 with a rally in Kanpur, he will be in Bhopal on June 25, with Sushma Swaraj and Suresh Soni, to launch the Hindi version of his book.
The BJP is working on picking the right candidates for the Lok Sabha and trying to resolve the problems in various state units. While he is hopeful that the Gujjar problem will get sorted out, Advani feels the deaths due to police firing will have an adverse impact at least as far as the Gujjar community is concerned.
From the daily pioneer.
Seems likr Mulayam is giving only 17 seats to Congress. Does not sound much like an alliance. Also Digvijay is fast rising within Congress. Next MMS!!
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnist1.asp?main_variable=Columnist&file_name=vyas%2Fvyas233%2Etxt&writer=vyas
Will he, won’t he?
Negotiations are on between the Congress and the SP with Digvijay Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav co-ordinating for the forthcoming General Election. But, chances of any agreement between both the parties are minimal. Sources say, Digvijay Singh is playing a decisive role in the electoral strategy of both UP and Bihar. But, Congressmen are speculating on who authorised him to talk to Mulayam. Was it Rahul or Sonia Gandhi?
According to a source, Rahul Gandhi feels that Mulayam has earned a bad reputation in UP and Congress may lose if they are associated with him. If that is so, how is Digvijay Singh coordinating over seats with the SP?
Digvijay Singh is said to have become close to Sonia and Rahul which has made him confident of taking wilful decisions on UP and Bihar.
Mulayam is said to be a grass-roots leader, so the SP is not willing to give more seats to the Congress. Sources say that the SP will leave only 16 seats for the Congress.
This decision comes after analysing the last election results in which the Congress won nine Lok Sabha seats and was the second lead in seven constituencies.
But, the Congress expects 35-37 seats. It’s obvious that regardless of all friendship talks, Mulayam will not give much importance to the Congress. Both parties won’t come together in Uttar Pradesh. Politically, even Mulayam’s meeting with Mayawati doesn’t hold much meaning.
Eyewitnesses said their meeting was official and both didn’t talk even for a few minutes.
New power centre
Digvijay Singh is being touted as the new power centre within the Congress. He’s said to have gelled well with Rahul even though he belongs to the generation of older leaders. Rahul Gandhi’s personal aide Kanishka Singh also admires him.
Digvijay has not only been working in UP but also on the party’s strategy for campaigning and expansion at an all-India level. His efforts are said to have overtaken those of Veerappa Moily and Janardan Dwivedi.
Digvijay has strategised well and, foreseeing fewer opportunities in Madhya Pradesh, has given the command to Suresh Pachauri. He plans to make himself a national leader and has worked for co-ordination among State leaders of Andhra, Assam, UP, Bihar and Karnataka.
Digvijay also seems to have come at par with Pranab Mukherjee by participating in every strategy of the Government.
Three wise men
When the Congress was wiped out in MP and Rajasthan, Ambika Soni suggested to Sonia Gandhi that despite the defeats, the abilities of Digvijay and Ashok Gehlot shouldn’t be wasted.
Hence, both were given responsibilities in AICC at New Delhi. Of the two, Digvijay’s rating has increased phenomenally and he is being considered the future Manmohan Singh.
He has more grasp of the law than Pranab Mukherjee, Shivraj Patil and Sushil Kumar Shinde. The third leader belonging to the forgettable days of Ambika Soni is Ghulam Nabi Azad.
He seems to have a hold in Delhi. There are talks of changing the leadership in Jammu & Kashmir elections by replacing Ghulam Nabi Azad. Last week, while touring the Kashmir valley, ML Fotedar tried to cajole Mufti.
While Mufti and Mehbooba were doing a rethink, Ghulam Nabi realised this was the right moment to return to Delhi. If he does get back, Azad will become an AICC General Secretary. The leadership will then be in the hands of those who formed the election strategy in 2004.
BJP democracy
The BJP has set an ideal example of internal democracy.
For the first time ever, a secret ballot was done to decide whether a majority of the MLAs supported their leader in the Assembly. Instead of just imposing a leader on members, a better decision was taken in this manner. There is no doubt that Sushil Modi has proven his leadership capabilities. Now his authority will grow. Those discontented will have to sit silently. But will this actually end the crisis in Bihar BJP? It seems difficult. Actually, Modi proved his majority through the Legislative Council.
He argued that as he was the leader of both houses, all members should be allowed to vote.
BJP set to give a fair share
Women are getting more influential in the BJP and it won’t come as a surprise if women get more tickets in the forthcoming elections. The BJP may turn out to be a pioneer in implementing the 33 per cent quota for women within the party. There are around 26 women in the National Executive itself. Recently, during the National Executive meeting in Delhi, when a proposal was made on the price rise issue, 14 women stood up to discuss the matter. Out of them, 10 were allowed to speak.
The primary motive of the speakers was to create an atmosphere to tap women voters. Sushma Swaraj enthusiastically lauded this move and addressing party chief Rajnath Singh, highlighted the difference that inclusion of women in the executive had brought. She then asked him to fill the remainder of the quota.
Supporting Sushma, LK Advani said women should get more and more tickets in elections.
Before he could finish, Sushma quipped that as he would be providing the tickets he should issue them forthwith instead of merely mentioning it. Advani didn’t disagree. This indicates that BJP may contest with more women in the fray this time round.
Murali,
In your spreadsheet you show one sure seat from WB? Which seat is that? Will that be the first time BJP would win a seat from WB?
Arjun,
It is not the first time BJP will win a LS seat in West bengal. They won the DUM DUM seat in Kolkata twice before and stand a good chance of winning one seat there this time especially after they improved ground in the panchayat and ZP polls recently. Be confident brother, Advani is the next PM, there is not an iota of doubt in my mind about that. India will never be the same again. The wall will be built around the bloody banglas and west bengal traitors will be driven out. Just wait for april 2009.
Jai Hind
Hi,
I have written a similar series on my blog regarding next general election predictions.
Countdown to general election 2009 – detailed analysis
northern india – a battleground
http://promiseofreason.com/51
western india – a NDA sweep
http://promiseofreason.com/53
southern india – a thousand options
http://promiseofreason.com/54
and I am currently writing about eastern india.
so here is the complete series, expecting comments
http://promiseofreason.com/series/countdown-to-general-election-2009
[...] the stage set for the battle for Delhi, Offstumped is happy to share a pre-election survey of Delhi’s assembly and lok sabha seats based on the recent local body polls. The survey was conducted by Viplav Communications Pvt Ltd, [...]
@murali
which is the 2 constituencies that bjp will win in tamilnadu….i dont see any support for them if they stand alone..yours will work only at most best scenario…its good to hear bjp gaining ground in west bengal…wat about arunachal ?will it go in bjp favour…
Few corrections to the above tally, recent local level elections, assembly election, local opinion polls etc reveal the following changes to the fine assesment done above –
Gujarat – Expect BJP to be 20 out of 26
Orrissa – Congress was third in how many urban bodies it will rule, behind BJD and BJP though had second highest seat in panchayats, very well behind BJD but just ahead of BJP. BJP and BJD had no allaiance. More Likely out of 21 seats cong would be lucky to get even 3 seats. BJD+BJP = 18 here
MahaRASTRA – MNS (on cong backing) is going to spoil fun for BJP/SS in Bombay proper. Many North India will not vote for BJP/SS and may vote congress. BJP/SS Strategy (mainly BJP) to emphasise that MNS SS is different from Bal Thakery SS and it is a congress stooge. Elsewhere, CONG/NCP loose big time. Thane By poll if any indication of things to come, BJP/SS should repeat their 199 performance, 35 out of 48 seats here.
The Joker is AP and UP. For congress to reach triple figure it has to do good in AP. If Chiranjeeve succeeds (I heard he has a wave in the Costal region at least), then good bye Cong.
UP = Can BJP capatalise on urban seats this time, post delimitation?
Thanks,