Telangana, Chiranjeevi and the Bellary beachead

The results from the Telangana by-polls are finally in. The bravado of the TRS in forcing this round of bypolls, less than a year before elections are due in Andhra has come a cropper. While the results have resulted?in a split verdict across the 3 principal players – Congress, TDP and TRS, not much must be read into them beyond the fact that the TRS’ 2004 success was an aberration.

Unlike 2004 when one saw a very high turnout in Telangana seats, the bypolls were marked by abject voter apathy.

The results should also not be interpreted as a referendum on the Telangana issue as the TRS made it out to be. Telangana remains a potent issue, and G. Venkataswamy’s much publicized tantrum at the Congress Working Committee, CWC, meeting should be taken as evidence of the same.

The results merely mean that the TRS is no longer viewed as the most credible voice or platform for the Telangana cause.

Meanwhile Telugu mega-star Chiranjeevi finally ended the speculation by floating a date for the launch of his to be christened “labour party” through brother in-law and surrogate-in-chief ?Allu Arvind.??

So what does all of this mean to the Assembly elections and which way Andhra will lean come general elections.

The Politics of Andhra is unlike the politics in any major state of India for?2 reasons.

Reason #1 -?No party which owes its pedigree to the Janata Party?platform of political opposition to the Congress developed significant roots in this state

Reason #2 – There is no fundamental political difference between the Congress and its principal rival, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, TDP

Both of these reasons make NTR’s dramatic launch of the Telugu Desam in the 1980s and his march to power in what is historically the shortest gestation period for any mass movement to win, unique and incredible.

The abject lack of a viable political opposition gave NTR the political cause to be a viable contender but that alone would not have been enough for him to cross the threshold for victory if the experience of like non-Congress regional outfits like Kanshi Ram’s BSP and Prafulla Kumar Mahanta’s AGP is anything to go by.

It was NTR’s charisma coupled with the vaccum in the political space for a viable alternative to the Congress that propelled him to victory at first pass where others had to struggle for decades before tasting power independently.

But then NTR’s politics fundamentally was no different from the Congress’ politics. It was merely competitive populism for the masses while casteist opportunism for the favored few – the neo rich Kammas in the case of NTR and the traditional Reddy Oligarchy in the case of the Congress.

It is in this light Chandrababu Naidu’s tenure in power before the 2004 drubbing ought to be seen. Lacking NTR’s charisma, Naidu attempted to differentiate himself with a Right of Center outlook – standing for economic reforms while standing with the BJP.

But then “trust” has never been a hallmark of the Telugu Desam Party. Back in the 1980s when Indira Gandhi attempted to topple NTR by propping up dissident Nadendla Bhaskar Rao, the political opposition from the Janata Party’s Jaipal Reddy to the BJP’s Venkaiah Naidu rallied around NTR on a common platform to help him back to power. An ungrateful NTR turned his back on the BJP then.

In 2004 it was the turn of an ungrateful Chandrababu Naidu to turn his back on both his reformist platform and the BJP, reminding us once again the fundamental lack of ideology or principles to distinguish the TDP from the Congress.

It is in this mix that you now have a 3rd populist in Chiranjeevi entering the fray once again with a populist message of land and jobs for the poor.

And Chiranjeevi’s Unique Selling Proposition – casteist opportunism for the favored amongst the Kapu underclass unlike Naidu’s neo-rich Kamma and the Congress’ Reddy Oligarchy.

So what impact can Chiranjeevi have on Andhra ?

The Andhra of 2008-2009 is unlike the Andhra in the 80s. Chiranjeevi does not have the political vaccum NTR was able to occuppy, nor does he have NTR’s divine charisma. By running on a populist platform in a year where the Congress faces the twin problems of anti-incumbency and resentment over betrayal on Telangana, Chiranjeevi will likely split the anti-Congress vote with the TDP to damage Naidu’s prospects for return to power more than anything else.

So where does this leave the BJP in Andhra ?

Clearly the 1990s were the high point for the BJP in Andhra, making inroads in coastal districts and winning seats in areas previously unimagined. The falling out with Naidu and the strong anti-incumbency of 2004 dealt a crippling blow to the BJP. The reluctance to advocate Telangana also saw it lose old timers to the TRS thus further weakening its traditional bastions in the Hyderabad region and parts of Telangana.

Can BJP recover itself in Telangana ?

It depends on what stance the Congress, TDP and Chiranjeevi take on Telangana. If a political consensus emerges on Telangana and the next polls are held with either a divided state or a soon-to-be divided states, there may not be much dividends for the BJP for it will only be the 5th guest at the Party trailing the TRS.

On the other hand if Telangana remains a hot button issue with neither the Congress nor the TDP coming out for it openly, there maybe an opportunity for the BJP. A lot will depend on how credible and viable a player the TRS ends up.

Bottomline the BJP cannot rely on Telangana. This is why the BJP’s victory in Karnataka becomes important.

The BJP’s cabinet in Karnataka is unique in the number of Telugu speaking ministers it has inducted. Much has been written about the Mining Barons – the Reddy brothers of Bellary and Sriramulu who between them delivered a large number of seats to the BJP’s kitty while also helping negotiate with the Independents.

The Bellary experiment for all the insinuations it has drawn in the mainstream media and from within the Sangh Parivar is strategic for the BJP.

For it demonstrates for the first time, the BJP’s ability to engage with the Reddy oligarchy on its own independent terms.

Offstumped Bottomline: If the Bellary experiment can be shown to be free of “conflicts of interests” as has been insinuated in the media and proven to be consistent with the BJP’s nationalist agenda it has the potential to become a sustainable beach-head for the BJP to chip away at the Congress’ stranglehold on the Reddy Oilgarchy in Andhra starting with Chief Minister Y.S. Rajashekar Reddy’s backyard of Rayalaseema.

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