The final phase of?polling?for?the Karnataka Assembly is now completed. About 55 per cent of the estimated 1.17 crore voters exercised their franchise in the third and final phase of elections in 69 assembly segments in Karnataka on Thursday.
While pollsters of all hues have opined on what the outcome will likely be we will also hear today?from the infamous CNN-IBN and Yogendra Yadav who’s credibility will be on the line here. Offstumped will be particularly interested to see if Mr. Yadav will defend his initial prognostication and if so what rationale he will offer
Or
Will Mr. Yadav debunk his pre-poll survey to apply a course correction and look for a graceful exit out of controversy.
Either way its his credibility on the line here and we will hold him accountable to a high standard for this is the second time in a row he has attempted to influence the outcome with his prognostication.
As always we have the final round of predictions, seat by seat from an avid reader.
Phase 3 Predictions from an avid reader of Offstumped
As Karnataka is done with all three stages of polling, the air is filled with speculations and anxiety. The congress knows it has lost the battle but is somehow hoping that there be no winner, the JD(S) will hope to play kingmaker or even keep hopes of staging another drama through a coalition with the congress. The BJP will be hoping to make inroads into the south and it may well turn out to be the semi final for them before the grand lok sabha finals. Phase three of the elections took place today and as most would agree, this is indeed a BJP stronghold in terms of caste and local factors. They have made significant improvements in making their presence felt in the region over the last decade. In fact they have improved their vote share by a whooping 20% in this area between 1999 and 2004. Even a 4-5% vote share swing this time can help them a big way in wresting the closely contested seats and pumping up their tally.
Summary of Predictions-Phase 3: 69 seats
BJP assured-22
Congress assured-4
JD(S) assured-1
Unpredictable (seats with no trend, flip flopping or no incumbents)-18
Tossup (seats fought on close margins either between two parties or 3 way contests on close margins) – 13
Unknown seats (Of all the new constituencies carved out, some of the seats could not be analysed) ? 11
So of the total 224 seats in all the three phases, the BJP has 66 assured seats, the congress 30, the JD(S) 14, 48 are Unpredictable, 36 are tossups, among the new seats created 27 of them are anybody?s guess and 3 seats are between BSP, KCVP and RPI.
Hence, the BJP 47 seats from the 48 Unpredictable seats, 36 Tossups and 27 Unknowns. They need 47 from 111 seats which have not been assigned to any party. The congress would need 83 of the 111.
Added here is another detail regarding reserved seats which might interest some of you.
Total SC seats: 36
BJP: 8
Congress: 4
JD(S): 1
RPI: 1
BSP: 1
Unpredictable: 14
Tossup: 2
Unknown New seats: 5
Total ST seats: 15
BJP: 1
Congress: 1
Unpredictable: 6
Tossup: 3
Unknown New seats: 4
This serves as a good internal check one looks at the results of the last assembly election. In 2004 there were a total of 35 SC/ST seats and BJP won 14, Congress won 8, the JD(S) 9 and the rest won 4. In our case for 2008 we have a sure 9 for BJP, 5 for congress, and 1 for JD(S). 20 of them are unpredictable and 5 are tossups. These seem in line with the past and the prepoll analysis posted last week by the independent agency in Hyderabad.
Detailed predictions seat by seat for Phase 3
Belgaum District
1. Nippani: This is seat will be fought on close margins just like the last time. But it can throw up a surprise too, the last time runner up (BJP candidate) has now moved to the JD(S). But it will be a tossup either between INC and BJP or INC and JD(S).
?
2. Chikkodi-Sadalga: This is a new seat carved out by combining erstwhile chikkodi and sadalga. This is unpredictable since Chikkodi was won by BJP and Sadalga by Congress. Congress won comfortably in Sadalga, while BJP won a triangular contest in Chikkodi. Depends on internal arrangements and voter mood here, unpredictable.
3. Athani: This area has benefitted a lot under this current BJP MLA and he won by a comfortable margin last time. BJP will retain this in all probability.
4. Kagwad: This seat will be fought on close margins, though BJP has a good chance of retaining it, this is a tossup.
5. Kudachi (SC): New constituency
6. Raybag (SC): Traditional congress seat, Last time JD(U) won this, but this time JD(U) has changed the candidate and congress is also fielding a new candidate, this one is unpredictable.
7. Hukkeri: JD or its factions have been winning this for quite some time. Last time the BJP and congress wiped the JD(S) here and they fought it on close margins. The BJP incumbent has a very good reputation here and might manage to retain it, but still a tossup.
8. Arabhavi: Traditional congress stronghold on account of a particular candidate, but he lost last time to JD(S). There is a chance they might win this back, but nothing can be said. Unpredictable
9. Gokak: An ST seat converted into a GEN seat. This has been a congress stronghold for a decade. The BJP has improving vote shares, but congress should retain this.
10. Yemkanmardi (ST): New constituency
11. Belgaum Uttar: New constituency
12. Belgaum Dakshin: This is a new constituency but it is just Bagewadi constituency renamed. The Incumbent BJP candidate is a young and dynamic MLA but the contest was fought on close margins and might be the same again, so tossup.
13. Belgaum Rural: New constituency
14. Khanapur: This seat was fought on close and low margins last time, the winner and the runner up had vote shares less than 20%. BJP did not contest last time and this time they are fielding a new candidate. Anybody?s guess, unpredictable
15. Kittur: This seat is a fight between BJP and the congress and the BSP can grab some of the congress votes here. The BJP incumbent will retain this.
16. Bailhongal: This used to be a Janata Dal strong hold, but as of now they are wiped out here. The incumbent is a BJP MLA, but no trend line. This is unpredictable (between BJP and the Congress)
17. Saudanti Yellamma: New constituency
18. Ramdurg: The incumbent BJP MLA won by a huge margin, but no trend and some local reports don?t suggest a great public liking towards him, would say unpredictable
Bagalkot District
19. Mudhol (SC): This seat has voted out the incumbent normally, but the current BJP incumbent has been an MLA in this constituency before and he his vote share has been rather steady and improving. He lost in 99 by a whisker and is likely to retain this seat. So BJP
20. Terdal: New constituency
21. Jamkhandi: This used to be a congress stronghold, last time BJP won this. This time congress is fielding a grassroots level guy who is popular and the incumbent BJP MLA is no walkover either. Will say Unpredictable
22. Bilgi: Increasing vote shares and locally popular, the BJP will retain this.
23. Badami: Is a traditional congress seat, except in the middle when JD won twice. The BJP won last time, the congress is again fielding its old candidate, unpredictable
24. Bagalkot: The BJP will retain this, the other candidates in the fray don?t induce any hope for the constituency.
25. Hungund: The BJP will retain this
Bijapur
26. Muddebihal: This one is a tri-party contest and fought on close margins between JD(S) and congress. Tossup
27. Devar Hippargi: New Constituency
28. Basavana Bagavadi: Fought on close margins between congress and the BJP, will be a tossup
29. Babaleshwar: New Constituency
30. Bijapur City: As expected the congress and the JD(S) have done the blunder of fielding Muslim candidates both in this key seat where BJP just romped home in the city elections not long ago. The BJP will retain this again.
31. Nagthan (SC): New Constituency
32. Indi: The current Independent MLA has been the MLA for 15 years, but is not contesting this time and all parties can fancy decent vote shares here, wide open Unpredictable
33. Sindgi: This constituency has consistently voted out the incumbent and none of the candidates had an exceptionally high vote share either, this is unpredictable.
Gulbarga District: This district has a sizeable Muslim population, but even so the congress has decided to play it safe by just fielding one Muslim candidate in the 13 constituencies
34. Afzalpur: The incumbent JD(S) MLA is contesting from a BJP ticket this time, likely to retain this, so BJP
35. Jevargi: This is Dharam Singh?s constituency, but here we stick our neck out and say, the BJP will snatch this from him. This one is BJP.
36. Shorapur (ST): There has not been much change in the candidates here despite being converted to an ST seat. The incumbent won last time on KNDP seat and is now contesting on BJP ticket. Was fought on close margins with congress last time, likely to be a tossup.
37. Shahapur: This seat has again and again voted alternatively and congress has traded smartly here. This will be congress
38. Yadgir: The incumbent who won as an independent last time is now contesting on a BJP ticket. Won by a decent margin and has a good reputation. Will be BJP
39. Gurmitkal: Was an SC seat, but now GEN, This was Kharge?s bastion, but he is not contesting here. All parties have changed candidates, this is unpredictable now.
40. Chittapur (SC): This is a GEN seat converted into an SC seat. Mallikarjun Kharge is the congress man here, has a decent chance, but again this is the first time he is contesting from this seat. So unpredictable
41. Sedam: Fought on close margins by all the parties, this is a tossup.
42. Chincholi (SC): A GEN seat converted to an SC seat. All parties with new candidates, unpredictable.
43. Gulbarga Rural (SC): New reserved seat created.
44. Gulbarga Dakshin: The BJP will retain this seat.
45. Gulbarga Uttar: The congress is fielding its age old Muslim candidate here, he has enough dissidence even within his own support group, the BJP has played it smart here, this will be likely BJP.
46. Aland: This one will stay JD(S) despite the trading between JD(S) and congress for candidates.
Bidar District
47. Basavakalyan: This one is fought between all three parties and an independent on low and close margins. A three time JD MLA is now contesting on a BJP ticket, while the JD(S) incumbent is with JD(S). Will be tossup
48. Homnabad: This is a classic tri-party contest and no one is going to let it go easy, all three are within 2% vote share marks, tossup.
49. Bidar South: Sanjay Kheni for BJP is a string candidate and Congress, BSP and JD(S) all are fielding muslims. Even the best tactical voting by Muslims cant avoid polarization towards BJP here. This is BJP
50. Bidar: This is a new constituency
51. Bhalki: There is growing support for the congress candidate here, but the BJP incumbent has also been strong and with high vote shares, will be tough to unseat with all this BJP wave, so BJP
52. Aurad (SC): This has been changed from GEN to SC. All parties have changed candidates, this is unpredictable
Gadag District
65. Shirahatti (SC): This seat has been converted from a GEN to an SC seat. Last time this was fought between Congress, JD(S) and JD(U) on very close margins. But congress and JD(S) have been forced to field different candidates because of delimitation. JD(U) is not contesting (maybe a secret deal with BJP!!!) Unpredictable
66. Gadag: This is a congress stronghold, they will retain this.
67. Ron: This incumbent BJP MLA is a popular guy in the area and won by a good margin last time, BJP will retain this.
68. Nargund: The BJP has a strong incumbent MLA, he will retain this seat. So BJP
Dharwad District: This is a region where Sangh is strong and where the recent Hubli court blast is likely to have an effect on the voters mind
69. Navalgund: This one is fought on close margins and BJP has changed it?s candidate. Will be a tossup.
70. Kundgol: No trend line, fought on low vote shares, this is unpredictable
71. Dharwad: This is a seat drawn out of the erstwhile Dharwad Rural constituency. Last time the BJP did not contest and no trend line here. Unpredictable.
72. Hubli-Dharwad-East (SC): This is a sure BJP seat.
73. Hubli-Dharwad-Central: Jagadish Shettiar will retain this for BJP.
74. Hubli-Dharwad-West: The congress and the JD(S) are fielding muslims and playing into the BJP plan, this one is again BJP and well indicated by the past voting trends.
75. Kalghatgi: This is fought on low margins and BJP has changed their candidate. BJP is likely to retain this seat, but potential tossup.
Haveri District
82. Hangal: The seat has been alternating between two specific candidates for the last 30 years. One of them is a congress MLA and the other was a Janata party member then moved to JD(U) and won last time from a BJP ticket and is contesting again on a BJP ticket. Going by this trend this seat will go back to the congress.
83. Shiggaon: With the JD(S) losing presence in this area and congress back with its old trick of fielding a Muslim MLA here, the BJP will gain here as BSP is also fielding a Muslim candidate here along with other independent minorities. Votes will be split here, the BJP will win though on low margins.
84. Haveri (SC): This seat has been converted from a GEN to an SC seat. Last time this was fought between BJP and Congress on very close margins. But both of them have been forced to field different candidates because of delimitation. Unpredictable
85. Byadgi: Here an SC seat has been made into a GEN seat. The BJP MLA from Haveri is contesting from here. Will be BJP here.
86. Hirekerur: This one will be a tri-party contest fought on close margins. Tossup
87. Ranibennur: This has become a BJP strong seat now with G Shivanna. The BJP will retain this.
Filed under: Karnataka Polls 2008
Yossarin – Good take on Polls !!
NDTV says 55% is the turnout is that correct or may be likely to be revised?
55 seems low as the first two stages were 60%
Usually EC revise the polling percentage to 5-6% plus on the next day. So probably tomorrow we can see that it is 60% voting. Anyway this low % is not a good news for BJP.
Hi Guys…I am watching Copngress Mouth Piece CNN IBN with Rajdeep Slurdesai and Yogendra yadav its the polls:
CNN IBN – DH SURVEY
Congress : 35 % of the vote ( down 4 %)
BJP : 30% of the vote ( up 2%)
JD(S): 21 of the vote (up 1%)
Others: 14% of the vote.
Looks like they playing it straight and keeping a margin for themselves.
Guys…Experts…Please comment.
The comic pollster or you may call him spurious pollster Yadav has made the following prediction
Congress : 86
BJP : 79
JDS : 45
And cunning Yadav has hinted that his vote forecast is correct but seat forecast may go wrong!
I feel on Sunday, Yogendra Yadav is going to eat humble pie
Sardesai’s and Yogendra Yadav on CNN-IBN just gave one of the most confused and directionless pre-poll survey…..of all times….
These guys …will never improve…..
Sardesai….would on every point said…..
“Yes ,…mr. So and So….you’ve made a very interesting point…..”..
Is there a way by which we can compile the predictions of Yadav as done in the past vis-a-vis the actual results? If we can have such a list and we make the comparison and then prove beyond doubt that out of say 10 times he has been wrong say 8 times, this should conclusively prove that his predictios are much worse than or at best as good as astrolgical ones/wild guesses/anybody’s guesses/parrot’s card/numerology guesses. If we can circulate such results to the media, Yadav would have to respond and he can no longer seek refuge under the inherent “uncertainities” and probabilities of statistical methods. Probably, that would help yadav to realise that this sort of motivated manipulations under the garb of his brand of psephology is now laid bare and he should try to look for honourable exit from next predictions. Better, we should send the results to his employers.
Yogendra Employer is Congress dear so no use….
Dont know he is also in NCERt.
hey guys have anyone seen Poll in NDTV related to 4 year UPA performance….
70% says MamMohan singh BEST PM
HA HA HA HA
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080050687
THOSE MISSED IT ABOVE IS THE LINK OF NDTV CLAIMING WE INDIANS HAVE GIVEN OPINION ON MANMOHANSINGH AS PM
#6
Rather than exposing someone and making him see the light of day why not have a poll of one’s own which is consistently accurate and beats the manipulated ones fair ‘n’ square. Isn’t that how markets are supposed to work?
hey
thanks a lot for the detailed analysis. really interesting.
one thing though – next time onwards (whenever that is) – can you put the names of the major party candidates next to each constituency forecast?
I’ve been following this mainly through the Vijaya Karnataka and coverage (especially writing) has been abysmal.
Speaking of which, what happened to Vijay Sankeshwar? Which party does he belong to now?
OT but related….
Good news for board visitors and posters here…from Scientific American.
Blogging–It’s Good for You
Ensoi.
Personally, I doubt these poll outcomes. Call me cynical, but it is difficult to believe that the casteist tendencies in Karnataka have somehow recused themselves for Devegowda’s party to loose overwhelmingly. I won’t be surprised if the status quo carries over from last election results.
Socal, that of course is better. But it is not easy to conduct pre-poll surveys and Yossarin’s attempts and his courage are both praiseworthy in this regard and baffling as how does he get this sort of information. It is painful to watch during every election Yadav ranting his predictions and then when we remember vaguely how wrong he has been. It is probably easier to discredit him and then demand an explanation for his blatant professional dishonesty which should be an end to his brand of psephology. If you can conduct a parallel exit poll and produce consistent results again it needs to be compiled and disseminated to prove conclusively who stands where.
By the way, anyone any idea what NDTV is saying for the exit polls?
polling percentage is 61% -
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/karnataka/election_story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080050608
all three phases had 60%+ turnout. only bangalore urban registered a low turnout at 44%. a high turnout can neutralize minority vote banks and tactical voting. i really do not think free floating voters would have had any reason to vote for congress, or god forbid, JD-S. we will know on 25th.
So, Yogendra Yadav has reduced the number of Congress seats from 114 to 87. Did he give a reason for this decrease.
An exit poll cum post poll survey for Suvarna News by C-Fore says BJP will get 104-114 seats, Congress 69-74, JDS 35-40 and others 6-10. BJP is expected to get a voteshare of 35%, Congress 34%, JDS 19%, and others 12%. In its pre-poll survey, the two agencies had said Congress would end up slightly ahead at 90 seats.
NDTV gives BJP 95-115, Congress 55-75, JDS 45-55. As usual Prannoy plays safe!
So, this is the summary for BJP
DRS poll : 120-130
NDTV : 95-115
Asianet : 104-114
CNN-IBN : 76
Lets see what happens on Sunday, by 10am we will know the final picture
sud,
thanks for the link.
My limbic system is flush with dopamine as we speak.
=)
Folks,
I need a small info.
In how many states are the Hindu temples freed from Govt control ? I vaguely remember reading something regarding Himachal Pradesh. What about BJP rules states like Gujarat, Rajasthan ? Does any one have info regarding this aspect?
any pointers/links would be much appreciated.
Thank you very much in advance
Let pray to Bhagavan to save and protect Karnataka, and the nation, from adharmic JDS-Cong Kauravas.
Why result is coming after 3 days? They are using electronic machines, they can do it next day. I am afraid, they are not going to club all the machines at one place.
Free and fair elections are exactly what are holding the country together.
We have to be vigilant, the psec pinkos dont attempt to subvert the EC.
Once the psecs start losing big and bad, going by their past tendencies, they’ll start a sly but mounting campaign against the fairness of the poll process itself, I fear.
Just like when they lost big and bad in the Binayak Sen and Afzal cases, they started insinuations against the judicial process….
Time will tell where we are heading.
CNN IBN is saying that things have changed since they did the pre-poll survey. Yogendra yadav is saying that Congress has lost the advantage it had.
These guys are so smooth at lying.
Yogendra Yadav and Rajdeep are trying to put the blame on some Dr Karandikar of Cranes Software.Yogendra Yadav is saying that it is a nightmare to predict the number of seats. Nice attempt to wiggle out.
Ravi Shankar Prasad gave a smack down. He said we have seen your pre-poll survey and now this poll, so just wait till 25th.
Arjun,
These guys are so smooth at lying.
Nice attempt to wiggle out.
Honestly, what else did you expect? And not only that, they will wiggle out successfully. The only thing hurt would be their credibility but its not like they care abt it now, do they?
exactly sud, well put
They way they blatantly lie and put facts is enough to prove that they dont care. Then this vote share is total gimmick. They vote share numbers they show for 2004 is over 224 seat average. The BJP contested only in 198 of the 224. Why would BJP care abt the vote share which is averaged over seats it did not contest. So that itself directly gives them 34% in 2004. See how these guys manipulate numbers on TV.
Well, there you have it, Dhimmedia dutifully spreading IBN’s bilge.
Karnataka headed for hung assembly
Why only quote IBN’s exit ‘pulls’ selectively? Why not the otehrs too, sir?
BTW, Rajdeep did slip a line about BJP could be the largest party. If one month ago you made a claim. Now you are still saying that Congress will be the largest party. Then you say BJP could be the largest party.
Then what the hell are you saying? Why are you coming uo with this bakwas and nautanki? Take a stand and be consistent even if you turn out to be wrong.
What is this nonsense with the prediction being all over the place.
the electronic voting machines are one of the biggest threats to indian democracy.Even USA deters to use them due to fear of being misused.
Guys we need to use the paper and the stamp like or the elections might be manuplated
Not just Singur and Nandigram, CPM gets battered across rural West Bengal
Hurrah! There is a gawd, after all…
Of course, there’s a long way to go. CPM retains majority control at all levels BUT they are at their lowest tally in decades and their ship is slowly sinking. Has the tide turned? Who knows, but one can hope, at least.
BJP has won some seats too. We need an analysis from someone who knows Bengal politics. At places, BJP, TNC and Congress had an alliance!!!
http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=10&theme=&usrsess=1&id=205161
And Now….See the heading @ The Hindu
http://www.hindu.com/2008/05/23/stories/2008052359991300.htm
CNN IBN was saying that BJP did not do as well as expected in the third phase even though it is their stronghold. Is that really true? NDTV was saying that Congress has sone slightly better in the third phase.
If that is the case, BJP will fall short of majority. They will have to tie up with independents.
@Raghu…:)
Laughable…isn’t it….Hindu has gone the MSM way…what more to say….
@arjun…
Yes….Both these channels said so….Let’s hope that BJP get’s a majority and form a government on it’s own….
BJP did exceedingly well in III phase according to
CFore exit poll. It gives them upto 52 seats out of 69.
If BJP gets 30 seats in I phase they are the governing party. Even Upadhyaya from Deccan Herald seems to have been really embrassed by pro congress turn in CNN-IBN exit poll. He said his perception was BJP was the largest party and seems to be close to majority.
@suresh….I TRUST YOU….BJP must win and form a goovernment on it’s own….
http://www.newindpress.com/NewsItems.asp?ID=IE120080523022958&Page=1&Title=Bangalore&Topic=0&
BANGALORE: THE BJP’s confidence of sweeping the polls in north Karnataka seems to be coming true, at least that is what the exit polls conducted after the third phase of polling in 69 constituencies on Thursday predict for the party that could take the saffron outfit all the way to the seat of power in Vidhana Soudha.
Out of the 69 seats in the third phase, the BJP is expeccted to get about 43 to 53, thus taking its combined tally of all the three phases to between 104 and 114 seats.
With the magic figure to rule the state being 113, the prediction, if proved right, could see the saffron outfit create history by having a government on its own for the first time in south India.
The exit poll in the third phase predicts just 9 to 14 seats for the Congress and 6 to 11 seats for the JD(S) while others would get 1 to 5 seats. As for the swing in votes in comparison to the previous polls in 2004, the BJP has recorded a huge swing of 12 percent in its favour, while the Congress has suffered a 4 percent negative swing, the JD(S) has suffered a 2 percent loss.
The region-wise analysis of the exit poll shows the BJP well ahead of the Congress in both Bombay-Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions.
It is expected to score 35 to 40 seats in Bombay-Karnataka region covering 50 seats. The Congress is lagging far behind at 6 to 9 seats and JD(S) is close at 3 to 6 seats.
Similarly of the 19 seats in Hyderabad-Karnataka region, the BJP has been projected to take 8 to 13 seats. Here the Congress and the JD(S) have been shown to be on equal footing with prediction of 3 to 5 seats each.
Giving an overall picture of the polling pattern for the state, the exit poll has predicted Congress to win between 69 to 74 seats, far behind the BJP which is said to be on course to bag 104 to 114 seats.
The JD(S) has fared better than the expectations of poll analysts as it is expected to get 35 to 40 seats, while independents and others would share 6 to 10 seats.
Let us wait for actual results.
Meanwhile I am really mad at Yogendra Yadav.
He seems to say Congress is leading in Coastral Karnataka. But independent journalists who are not favorably disposed to BJP seems to contradict his foetisness for congress in Coastral Karnataka or for that matter Bangalore City.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1080517/jsp/nation/story_9283496.jsp
Here is another report from Hyderabad Karnataka. BJP seems to have done really well in this region too. But Yogendra Yadav say BJP had a negative swing of 5 percent.
But where was Vajpayee?
Johnson T A
Posted online: Friday, May 23, 2008 at 2127 hrs Print Email
Many in Gulbarga still identify the BJP with the former PM
Gulbarga, May 22: As Karnataka voted in the third and final phase of the election on Thursday, one national leader who was missed is former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
But where was Vajpayee?Last lap could hold key to power
Indian National Congress US Election Results Mangalore
As the poll process in 69 seats in eight northern districts hit the final lap, remarks often heard around these constituencies were: “Vajpayee did some good work”, “this road was laid during Vajpayee’s time” and “why is Vajpayee not campaigning?”
If many families across rural Karnataka still identify the Congress with Indira Gandhi, many people in Gulbarga, a region that provided the party the momentum to emerge as the single largest one in 2004, seem to identify the BJP with Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
“A few years ago, motorists weren’t willing to drive along the 300 km Bagalkot-Bijapur-Gulbarga road. But that changed during Vaypayee’s time,” says Chandrakant Bhosle, 27, a taxi driver from Bagalkot.
“We voted for Vajpayee last time because he was pro-development,” says Nagaraj Naik a resident of the Gulbarga rural region.
@Suresh…I read this article in IE today. The NDTV / CNN IBN polls confused me a bit.
Anyways, as I said looks all well currently, let’s wait for D Day ( Sunday) when the results will be declared.
However, Some of my friends are from Karnataka spread out from Udipi,Mangalore,Shimoga etc. are telling me that in the rural areas people have voted en masse for the BJP…WHY?….To avenge the treachery of Kumaraswamy….
Thanks for the info.
This time it is turn of Congress to become major party. It is clearly evident in the 2nd phase poll, where BJP losing in their strong hold area – South Canara and Chikmagalore. This is directly assignable to their caste based politics..and trying to bring in Gujarath type management of issues rather than improvements in the constituencies.
Definitely, JDS becoming stronger in North Karnataka will hit BJP in getting the sufficient number of seats.
Overall ranking (cant say the numbers)
1. Congress
2. BJP
3. JDS
4. Others
Please have Dharya (patient) and shraddha (faith) in yourself, all will be ok. Read the Sri Krishna’s advice to Arjuna, “Karmani eva adhikarasthe, maa faleshu kadachan, (You have the right to work, not at the fruits of work, or Perform your duty and leave the rest to Bhagavan)”.
These pre-and-post polls are money making business, they got no credibilities. We must realise, Bharat is a very complex electoral landscape, so many diverse factors affect the final outcome.
However, a good study/polls gives certian indications. For that, samples have be large, unbiased and random and margin of error within a smaller limit. Does it make much sense saying, BJP will get 95-115 seats, and Congres wil get 50-75 seats, for example? What is the margin of error? Do we need pollstars to give such figures? We can tell in few seconds, BJP will get 60-135 seats, Congress wil get 60-140 seats and so on. There have to be science in polls, else it simple fraudism.
How many pollstars are expert on Sampling theory, probability theory and their outcome? Statistics is not a fabrication science (fabricate or manufacture the numbers) and then make cheap propagandas. Data have to be reliable and accurate, to achieve certain certainty in results. What does it tells, for example, a sample of 4000 out of 10 million (a crore) voters, taken from certain segments of population? What is the sample ratio? It is 0.0004%, one out of 2500 people. In some cases (where homogeneous population), small number of samples gives fair ideas, for that samples have to really unbiased and well distributed among the population.
Bharat
=====
Ahamed May 23, 2008 12:03 pm
This time it is turn of Congress to become major party. It is clearly evident in the 2nd phase poll, where BJP losing in their strong hold area – South Canara and Chikmagalore. This is directly assignable to their caste based politics..and trying to bring in Gujarath type management of issues rather than improvements in the constituencies.
Definitely, JDS becoming stronger in North Karnataka will hit BJP in getting the sufficient number of seats.
Overall ranking (cant say the numbers)
1. Congress
2. BJP
3. JDS
4. Others
What will you do if the results go the other way Mr Ahamed ? Will you change your name to David?
@UDHAY…
GOOD ONE
I wish to see BJP getting majority, but have some doubt because it may loose few seats in coastal Karnataka. The main reasons are (1) BJP reached peak performance in 2004, and there are anti-incumbency against some candidates. (2) Congress has fielded few minority candidates and minorities voted record number to defeat BJP (3) BJP had rebel candidates in places like Puttur, (4) compare to 2004, JD is weak this time in coastal Karnataka and as a result, there is no split in anti-BJP votes. (5) Some of the congress candidates are popular and have very strong caste bases also. Therefore it may be very hard for the BJP to retain/improve performance this time. I sincerly hope that I will be proven wrong on Sunday.
Btw, BJP is in trouble in MP. From a Hindi newspaper called Jagran which is much better than MSM.
Problem seems to be corruption. That is really bad.
http://in.jagran.yahoo.com/news/national/politics/5_2_4474699.html
Krishna,
Coastal Karnataka has always voted in large numbers, there the polarisation is complete, all hindus irrespective of caste will vote for BJP and that will easily outnumber the other votes and as for jd, even in the last election they could not get any anti-bjp votes. dont worry man, BJP will win.
Shekar Gupta on the new age of political alignments
Even Congress leaders acknowledge privately that it was this change that brought them to power in 2004. The UPA came into power because four things happened. Rajasekhar Reddy demolished Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra, Karunanidhi trounced Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu and, even more importantly, the NDA was reduced to just 10 in Uttar Pradesh and 11 in Bihar. Even if the BJP had won anything close to the 29 seats it had in Uttar Pradesh in 1999, which in turn was half of its 1998 tally, it would have had the critical mass to keep the NDA in power. Together, these four states accounted for a swing of nearly 120 seats and brought the UPA to power.
One factor that wasn’t common to these states was the Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, it was Mulayam Singh’s surprising resurgence that destroyed the BJP. In Bihar, Lalu’s caste coalition swept the NDA aside. In Tamil Nadu, it was a straight fight between two regional leaders and their respective allies. So in all three of these decisive states, the battle was won by a regional leader. And what about Andhra? Yes, the Congress swept it. But wasn’t Andhra, besides Haryana, the only state where the Congress had allowed the emergence, and projection, of a clear state leader, unchallenged by local rivals and unmolested by its Rajya Sabha-ist general secretaries? Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy had campaigned for the chief minister’s job for five full years, and won such a brilliant victory for his party. In fact, even today, he and Bhupinder Singh Hooda are the only two Congress leaders who are allowed to function as unchallenged regional chieftains.
Read it all. Worthwhile, IMHO.
Translating from a Marathi newspaper:
Prabodhan Research Group has conducted a survey and they predict the seats as following -
BJP – 103
Congress – 69
JD(S) – 26
Others- 26
Others 26? Holy molly….
JD(S) will have to split. Can rename the splinter group JD (Saffron)….heh heh just for kicks…
Sud,
I personally dont like shekar gupta’s articles, look at this one too, though he does some analysis, he hardly gives a committed prediction. I dont see the regional parties getting stronger. I would not be surprised if BJP sweeps more than 200 LS seats on its own. If they win karnataka, trust me it is all saffron from now. Anyway we can discuss all that as we get closer to may 2009. lets
now go step by step and see what happens in karnataka.
The good thing about this survey is that Congress + JDS is far less than BJP tally.
NDTV is very clever. They have given the possibility of BJP getting majority and at the same time they have given the possibility of Congress + JDS getting majority.
Murali, Concern is UP, Bihar and BJP ruled states such as MP. What is the strategy in AP? I had read that RSS has told BJP that its tally would be between 90-180 in 2009.
Well, nothing is cast in stone and the electorate can surprise and sometimes in a positive way.
K’taka: Cong looks for excuses (TOI)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Ktaka_Cong_looks_for_excuses/articleshow/3067656.cms
NEW DELHI: Congress would only surprise itself with a positive result in Karnataka, as an
For, two days before the results, Congress has prepared a list of alibis on why it might not do well on what appeared to be a favourable terrain. A key reason cited is that having done business with the JD(S), the Congress campaign targeting BJP for a “joke of government” with Deve Gowda’s outfit did not cut ice with people.
The party found itself unprepared and it showed during the campaign. There are no other reasons for a possible bad showing as, for the first time, there was no open infighting and there was a good swell of support across social segments in its favour, party sources argued.
The prime reason, campaign managers say, was that the party was on the wrong side of time required to get the campaign rolling once the poll watchdog gave the green signal to timely elections.
The unpreparedness was compounded by reconfigured constituencies, which leaders were not acquainted with though other parties had factored it in their pre-poll exercise.
The party was lulled into a belief that elections were set to be delayed for November after the EC initially indicated that it would require four to six months to hold polls under new delimitation. Congress required more time to let the talked-about sympathy factor for BJP to subside and for partymen to understand the newly configured constituencies.
After watching the three-phase polls, party insiders argue that the only reason for their dwindling fortunes would be that “we were just not prepared’’. It is felt that the Congress’ best-case scenario is a neck and neck show with BJP, with the possibility of falling 10-15 seats short of the saffron outfit. The chances of Congress emerging the single largest party is said to be “30%”.
The view is that the much-publicised return of S M Krishna to politics has turned out to be a “non-factor” and the real gains would be on account of Siddaramaiah, the OBC leader who rebelled in JD(S) to join the Congress. The former deputy CM from Kuruba community is said to have added to the Congress kitty. The performance of other bigwigs like PCC chief Mallikarjuna Kharge has satisfied observers.
But where the party feels hurt is that JD(S) is not performing as badly as it had expected before the elections.
While there has been a return of minorities to the party, it has failed to mobilise workers for myriad reasons, the biggest being paucity of time. The two communities, Lingayats and Vokkaligas, are said to have largely polarised between BJP and JD(S).
However, leaders are unanimous that BSP turned out to be a non-factor. They feel the UP outfit was neutralised by presence of Kharge at the head and the falling out of established BSP leader Gopa with Mayawati. official feedback says that the party may be pipped by a better-prepared BJP.
@sud
At least now these Congresswala & MSM accepting that is was NOT SONIA factor that led them to win in 2004.
Talking of Amar Singh I call him Bechara
JAB DOODH KI MALAI KHATAM HO GAYEE TAB USE DOODH PEENE BULAYA GAYA HAI.
What will you do if the results go the other way Mr Ahamed ? Will you change your name to David?
Udhay
@UDHAY…
GOOD ONE
Jiggs
Dear Uday/Jiggs,
Do you think I need to change my name for congress not getting majority…? I dont find any funda in doing that…….
Shareef
Bangalore is the only place many Indians prefers to settle down after retirement. Hence in my opinion center shoud look Bangalore as Senior citizen city instead of Bangalore. It need to identify Bangalore as separate city of seniors. you take just one are of Army top officials so for in 50 years of independence majority of persons are settled in Bangalore. Bangalore to rename as SENIOR CITIZEN CITY
@Raghunathan…
Good idea…but you will have to translate SENIOR CITIZEN INTO KANNADA!!!!!
BENGALURU….MUMBAI…KOLKATTA…CHENNAI….ODHISSA….
God knows when our stupid politicians will grow up…
Dear Jiggs,
Senior Citizen in.. Kannada means… “Jestha Nagarik”
Apple
@Jiggs
I would be very happy if our netas showed the same courage in changing the mughal era names of some of our cities as much as they have shown in changing the Brit era ones….
For instance Hyderabad should properly be Bhagyanagaram and Ahmedabad should be Karnavati.
/Wonder what Allahabad’s old name was, though….
Allahabad was our Prayag.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allahabad
Kedar sir,
Your writings are impressive. Spent an ensoyable time skimming through. Tks a ton!
Regards,
Sud
Sud,
Ahmedabad can be changed to karnavati anytime, dont know why modi does not do that, maybe he thinks people should get fixated that moditva is all about hindutva (rightly so because,)modtiva = heady mix of Hindutva + Nationalism + Development.
Allahabad as prayag, i knew it, in fact when you go to allahabad, on many boards you can see prayag.
Murali,
the people of ahmedabad (even the raging ‘communals’) are not too hung up on the name. Besides they have their own more popular secular version amdavad. Observing the M.O.D. one would notice he is more interested in actions, rather then words =) besides karnavati is a boring name, how about modicity or modinagar =)
@Sud/Murali/Aryan…
What’s in the name man????
It’s the religion we are talking about. AMDAVAD is being used by Gujju’s for a very long time and it has stuck on. There was a campaign to name it Karnavati, but I think the people are happy with Amdavad.
My point is that public consensus by means of a referundum must be done before changing any names.
Take Bombay for instance
In Marathi / Gujrati : It was always called MUMBAI
In Hindi : let it remain BAMBAI
In English ; let it remain Bombay
This is ridiculous, why should we take shit from a minority????Let the people of the cities decide what name they wish to call their city with, WHY IMPOSE YOUR WILL ON TO THE PEOPLE…..
Even Congress thinks BJP can get upto 110 seats but Rajdeep and Yogendra Yadav can’t see the light.
From PTI
http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/5FBB3B7E1BEB520B65257453004DB3C0?OpenDocument
Cong, BJP not in favour of alliance in Karnataka
New Delhi, May 24 (PTI) Amid fears of a hung verdict in Karnataka, Congress as well as BJP today said that they have no plans to go in for an alliance with the former even saying it was ready to sit in the Opposition in such a situation.
On the eve of counting of votes, the saffron party, however, appeared upbeat with some of its leaders talking of getting a comfortable majority to make its solo southern foray.
BJP Chief Rajnath Singh exuded confidence as he said that the party would certainly get majority and it would form the Government to make Bengaluru its gateway to south India.
“There is no question of seeking or extending support as we will get majority on our own,” he said when asked if the saffron party would seek support of the JD(S) in the event of a hung verdict.
A senior Congress leader, who declined to be identified, also struck a similar note saying that the party was not ready for an alliance in the event of a hung verdict and would prefer to sit in the opposition.
The leader said it is a “close race” in the state and if there is an undercurrent, BJP will win around 110 seats in the 224-member House and if it was not there, Congress would emerge as a single largest party. PTI
Kumaraswamy not averse to joining hands with the BJP to form govt.
http://howrah.org/india_news/13191.html
HDK not averse to BJP tieup
Font size: NewsByte 24 May, 2008 04:04:11
By OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
Bangalore, May 24: Former chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy hinted that his party might join hands with the BJP in the event of a fractured verdict. Mr Kumaraswamy, who was holidaying in Goa, held discussions with his friend and former minister, N. Cheluvarayaswamy and his trusted lieutenant Zameer Ahmed Khan about the future course of action to be adopted by the party.
Mr Kumaraswamy had already confided to this newspaper that he would never regret his decision to join hands with the BJP. By saying so, he dropped hints of his future plans. He had also said that the BJP-JD(S) alliance had filled the void and given the state a new leadership.
Mr Kumaraswamy’s statement was in contrast with that of his father, H.D. Deve Gowda who had told this newspaper that the saddest day of his life was when his son joined hands with the BJP.
Sources in the party said that though the JD(S) leaders considered the option of aligning with the Congress, they seem to have ignored it.
The reason: the Congress and the JD(S) share the same vote-base in the Cauvery basin.
Therefore, having an alliance with the Congress might weaken the party’s vote-base in the long-run, sources added.
While one group maintained that Mr Deve Gowda was out of the loop about the meeting in Goa, a few others maintained that the meeting was held at the behest of Mr Deve Gowda.
Mr Deve Gowda went to Srirangam on Friday and returned to the city on Saturday evening.
The meeting in Goa, however, is being described as a ploy worked out by the father and son to keep Mr Cheluvarayaswamy under check. Mr Cheluvarayaswamy has reportedly been nurturing hopes of breaking the party in the event of Mr Deve Gowda deciding not to join hands with any party to form a government. Sources said that Mr Kumaraswamy, sensing that Mr Cheluvarayaswamy could work towards splitting party, took him to Goa and pacified him.
If Bhajpa so much as even considers talking to the JD(Sewage) about *any* political arrangement, the BJP would have shot itself in the foot and would then rightly deserve every brickbat they will get.
Something though tells me it’ll be a Nitish Kumar in Bihar Redux.
let us wait and see.
OTOH, if the BJP gains a clear majority on its own, it should work overtime to wipe out the JD(Sewage) from existence. There’s more than enough evidence in public to make trial on the HD clan on corruption charges for a very long time indeed…. heck, a stint in a real prison might do some of the more obese netas some good, IMHO….
sud, It is more about HDK and Deve Gowda trying to keep Cheluvarayaswamy in the party.
There was a story earlier about BJP talking to independents already.
As on 10:15 am on counting day, looks like BJP will not get a majority. It looks like BJP will get 105-108 seats and it will be a hung assembly. If Congress and JDS gets together then they may well form the Government. Everything now depends on the Governor, but Mr.Thaku will definitely not favour the BJP! Bad days ahead for Karnataka!!
sud,
me just another guy… not a “sir”..
but thanks for reading my blog.
Kedar.
[...] could make a contrary argument. But we have them aplenty. Yogendra Yadav, the psephologist whose statistical impetuousness only equals his record number of failed projections stands tall in that [...]
A big commercial game is being played before elections by the media especially by TV channels and their so called psephologists to present all kinds of weird interviews, analyses, opinion polls, sample polls, predictions and other audio-visuals . They actively mislead the public, whip up reactions and try to influence the choice of the voters. Much like the candidates resorting to unethical practices to manipulate voting, the actions of these media and psephologists also amount to a plot against unbiased elections. The Election Commission of India which has been sparing no rod to ensure free and fair elections should come down heavily on such media activities and ban pre-election psephology.