The second?phase of polling has ended in Karnataka for the Assembly elections. News agencies are?reporting around 60% polling.
As before?Offstumped has predictions but this time with a surprise. A private firm based in Hyderabad has shared with Offstumped a detailed report of its Pre-Poll Survey for all the 3 phases. We have the full report for download by Offstumped readers. We also have?what?has now become an Offstumped tradition of?seat by seat prognostication.?As in the first phase the predictions are?fully the?effort of an avid reader. You may find some conservative estimates this time around largely on account of delimitation.
First the Pre-Poll Survey
The survey’s key findings are – There is a positive vote swing in favour of Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and some negative vote swing against INC and JD(S). BJP is likely to get more vote share compared to INC and JD(S) in all 29 districts and 224 Assembly Constituencies. Compared to 2004 election, BJP is gaining by 3.7 percent vote in this election. However, there is a negative vote swing of 1.5 percent against INC and 1.2 percent against JD(S). Therefore, there is a clear trend of growing support base of BJP compared to 2004 election because BJP is likely to get 101 seats, INC 65, JD(S) 42 seats. It indicates that BJP will be the single largest Party but a hung Assembly is almost certain.The full report can be downloaded from here.
Seat by Seat Predictions from an avid reader of Offstumped
Well, so much has happened within a span of five days, the usual suspects CNN-IBN have gone into permanent hiding on Karnataka after the polls so much so that they did not even report the Hubli court blasts. I am sure everyone has mourned, slammed the ineffective government and blamed all gods for the Jaipur incident. Meanwhile parties had campaigned and the people have voted in phase 2 hoping for a better Karnataka which we all eventually hope will lead to a better India and as analysts have unanimously predicted, shape the national elections next year. Some watch with anxiety hoping it will shape the national scene into something that will give an answer to all the conundrums they are faced with when they think of our great nation. Once again before we go through this, lets all spare a moment for the victims of the Jaipur blasts and think strongly for ourselves that ?Truth will Triumph and it is our duty to stand by it?? ?Satyameva Jayate?
Summary of Predictions-Phase 2: 66 seats
BJP assured-24
Congress assured-8
JD(S) assured-0
Unpredictable (seats with no trend, flip flopping or no incumbents)-16
Tossup (seats fought on close margins either between two parties or 3 way contests on close margins) – 11
Unknown seats (Of all the new constituencies carved out, some of the seats could not be analysed) ? 7
So of the 155 seats which have had elections so far in phases 1 and 2, the BJP has 44 assured seats, the congress 26, the JD(S) 13, 30 are Unpredictable, 23 are tossups, among the new seats created 16 of them are anybody?s guess and 3 seats are between BSP, KCVP and RPI.
Detailed predictions seat by seat
Raichur District
53. Raichur Rural (ST): New Constituency, but it is just erstwhile Kalmala district renamed. Fought on very close margins always and likely to be a tri-party contest, tossup.
54. Raichur: This is a constituency where there are considerable minorities and congress has always fielded a Muslim here. Moreover the Muslims in raichur are disenchanted with him. The last time a BJP MLA (papareddy) won and he is contesting again. With the wave towards BJP, the Hubli and Jaipur blasts and the intensive anti-terrorism campaign by the BJP, this seat is likely to stay with the BJP under these circumstances.
55. Manvi (ST): This is a complex seat, the congress MLA who won the last two times was losing support fast (his vote share dropped considerably in 2004 compared to 99) and congress is fielding a different candidate since this constituency was changed from a GEN to an ST seat, The BJP is fielding an ex-MLA who was with JD. But considering the consistent vote share for the congress over the years, I expect them to retain this seat.
56. Devadurga (ST): New Constituency
57. Lingsugur (SC): This is again a GEN seat converted to an SC seat. Amaregowda was a popular candidate here but he cannot contest from here anymore, the congress usually fielded a Muslim here and again they cant do that either, so all party?s have new candidates and there is no discernable party share either, hence this is Unpredictable.
58. Sindhanur: This seat has always given high vote shares to the congress and the congress candidate is quite popular (he is the incumbent) and they will in all possibility retain this. So Congress
59. Maski (ST): New Constituency
Koppal District:
This is a district where BJP has improved a lot over the decade with the average vote share over the 5 constituencies reaching close to 40% in the last election.? They won 2 of the 5 last time and are likely to improve this time over, but difficult to ascertain that. The congress has had dip in its vote share from 43 to 35 on an average over the district but that does not look like a major slide unless it continues over this time again.
60. Kushtagi: There has been no discernable trend here, the BJP has been improving its vote share and they won the last time, but not sure of they can retain it, so unpredictable.
61. Kanakagiri (SC): Usually a congress stronghold, but they have been voting other parties and the incumbent MLA is a BJP candidate, again no discernable trend, so unpredictable
62. Gangavathi: This seat is fought on close margins and so would call it a tossup.
63. Yelburga: Fought on close margins and lots of seat swapping, hence tossup.
64. Koppal: Again, fought on close margins between congress and the BJP. BJP has a good chance this time but will call it tossup.
Uttara Kannada District:
The congress has had a big slip in this area over the years and the BJP has improved its vote share considerably.
76. Haliyal: RV Deshpande of the congress is a strong candidate, but he will not have it easy this time and is facing huge incumbency, so I would call it unpredictable.
77. Karwar: BJP has changed candidate this time, but this is a very strong constituency for the sangh now and all probability BJP will retain this, so BJP.
78. Kumta: This one is fought on close margins, though this time BJP has a good chance of getting this seat back, lets call it?s a tossup.
79. Bhatkal: This one again is fought on close margins between congress and BJP, so it is a tossup
80. Sirsi: Used to be an SC seat, but now a GEN seat, but a pretty strong BJP seat, so will stay BJP.
81. Yellapur: New Constituency. This has been created out of the erstwhile Ankola constituency, which is a stronghold of the BJP, so BJP should hold this.
Bellary District:
This district has been totally changed by delimitation, most seats are now reserved. This has changed a lot here and recently the BJP won a landslide in the Bellary civic elections.
88. Hadagalli (SC): This constituency has consistently voted out the incumbent, going by this trend and expecting no major changes, the congress should get this seat back.
89. Hagaribommanahalli (SC): New Constituency
90. Vijayanagara: New Constituency
91. Kampli (ST): New Constituency
92. Siruguppa (ST): This a GEN seat made into an ST seat. The BJP is fielding the incumbent BJP MLA. This seat has consistently voted out the incumbent. So Unpredictable.
93. Bellary (ST): Sriramulu, however controversial he is, he will retain this seat for BJP.
94. Bellary City: New Constituency. The BJP should get this seat going by the latest trends and their win in the city elections.
95. Sandur (ST): This a GEN seat made into an ST seat. No trendline here, congress was strong here, but that MLA?s son could not create waves, so this is unpredictable.
96. Kudligi (ST): This a GEN seat made into an ST seat. No trend again, so unpredictable.
Chitradurga District
97. Molakalmuru (ST): This a GEN seat made into an ST seat. Fought between JD(S) and Congress on close margins with BSP cutting into some congress votes. This is a tossup.
98. Challahere (ST): This a GEN seat made into an ST seat No trend here, BJP is fielding an ex-JD MLA. Unpredictable
99. Chitradurga: The congress a strong candidate here and they will retain this seat, so congress
100. Hiriyur: SC seat earlier, now a GEN seat. This was a congress stronghold, but of late congress and JD(S) candidates seem to be winning alternately with BJP improving its vote share steadily. This will be unpredictable.
101. Hosadurga: Independents were winning this seat (3 different independents in 3 elections in a row), and last time congress won this. While other parties too have decent vote shares here, so it is anybody?s. Unpredictable.
102. Holalkere (SC): Erstwhile Gen seat now an SC seat. All parties have changed candidates, so unpredictable.
Davangere District:
The congress and the BJP have both improved their positions in this area thereby sidelining other parties. These seats are likely to be fought directly between the congress and the BJP.
103. Jagalur (ST): Erstwhile Gen seat now an ST seat. All parties have changed candidates, so unpredictable.
104. Harpanahalli: Congress strong area, will stay congress even though they have changed candidate.
105. Harihar: Fought on very close margins by all three parties, though BJP has a distinct chance this time, will still call it tossup
106. Davanagere North: New Constituency
107. Davanagere South: This constituency has been carved out of parts of erstwhile davangere constituency, where congress was strong. But with delimitation and increasing vote share of BJP, this is an unpredictable one now.
108. Mayakonda (SC): This has been a BJP stronghold and they will retain it despite having a new candidate in the fray.
109. Channagiri: No discernable trend here, anybody?s guess, unpredictable
110. Honnali: BJP is fielding incumbent renukacharya who has had very mixed reviews among the public at large, but still BJP has the edge here and they are likely to retain the seat.
Shimoga District:
This is pretty much among the districts where the sangh and the mutts have had maximum effect on the voting trend of the electorate. This area has been saffronized to a good extent and the voting trends do show the same pattern.
111. Shimoga Rural (SC): New Constituency. This has been carved out of the Holehonnur constituency, a BJP stronghold, they should retain this.
112. Bhadravati: Too much of candidate trading with independents joing some parties, and with the Sangh?s growing presence in shimoga, this is unpredictable.
113. Shimoga: This constituency has consistently voted BJP except once in 1999, so BJP should retain this.
114. Tirtahalli: BJP Stronghold, they will retain this even though they will win it on a close margin this time.
115. Shikaripura: Probably the most talked about constituency in Phase 2, Despite all odds, BJP will retain this seat under B.S.Yeddyurappa.
116. Sorab: This seat will go to the congress despite the increasing presence of BJP in this area unless the vote share is so well divided between Bangarappa?s two sons to help BJP. Will still say congress will win this.
117. Sagar: The BJP has had improving vote shares here over the years and last time they won overwhelmingly, they should retain this.
Udupi District:
?Again a sangh stronghold and BJP won the civil election by a landslide.
118. Byndoor: New Constituency
119. Kundapura: Though JP hedge will give Haladi shetty a tough fight, BJP candidate Haladi will win.
120. Udupi: The congress is fielding a tainted candidate whose wrong dealings are well known in the area and with BJP holding the seat now, they are likely to retain it.
121. Kapu: Fought on very close margins between BJP and congress, tossup
122. Karkal: The incumbent MLA with BJP has a good reputation in this constituency and this constituency just has two contesting parties, the BJP and the congress all the others have withdrawn. Will be a straight fight, but BJP will win in all probability and retain this seat.
Chikmagalur District:
123. Sringeri: BJP has consistently had high vote shares here (mutt?s play a big role in politics in this part of Karnataka) and last time they won. The incumbent Jeevraj is a popular candidate and BJP is likely to retain this seat.
124. Mudigere (SC): This constituency has always voted out the incumbent and last time was fought on very close margins between the BJP and the congress. Likely to be tossup again.
125. Chikmagalur: Traditionally congress used to have a Muslim MLA here (3 terms in a row) and last time BJP snatched it, now congress is fielding a candidate Mallikarjuna. Should be an interesting fight between BJP and congress, but BJP will likely retain this.
126. Tarikere: Traditional congress stronghold (except once in 1994), they will retain this.
127. Kadur: Has been a candidate driven seat with Krishnamurthy a popular guy in the area holding fort thrice. He was with JD(S) and has now moved to congress. Will win this for congress.
Dakshina Kannada:
Considered a really strong Sangh area and with all these terror incidents around the country and the dismal congress performance over that, one would not be surprised if BJP wins these by even bigger margins than usual, that said some local reports state that many of these seats will be closely contested. The overall area seems to vote quite uniformly with BJP having a overall vote share average in this district of 46% in 2004.
200. Belthangady: The BJP has been winning this twice and will retain this seat.
201. Moodabadri: This is a three way contest fought closely. Unless there are some under currents (like un announced seat sharing or fielding a dummy), this will be a tossup.
202. Mangalore City North: New Constituency. This seat has been literally gifted to the BJP, unless something major turns up towards the end. The congress and the JD(S) both have Muslim candidates and will inevitably split the minority vote even if the Muslims do bloc voting, the rest will go to the BJP giving it a comfortable victory unless vote turn out is less than 40%.
203. Mangalore City South: The JD(S) is not fielding a candidate this time to help the congress here. The congress candidate is a new Christian face and the BJP candidate faces huge anti-incumbency. He is quite popular, but still would be a tough fight ahead. Will call it unpredictable.
204. Mangalore: Again example of all parties gifting BJP this seat with communal polarization almost complete here. BSP, JD(S) and INC all have fielded Muslim candidates and BJP will walk away with this seat easily.
205. Bantwal: Communally active area and congress has hurt a lot of its chances among the majority by handing out pamphlets in mosques asking Muslims to vote for them. This will stay BJP.
206. Puttur: Very strong BJP seat
207. Sullia (SC): Very Strong BJP seat.
Filed under: Karnataka Polls 2008, Uncategorized
There’s far better quality of election analysis here than on any newspaper or TV channel, and that includes Padmasri Managing Editor’s NDTV owned by that famous one-time psephologist but currently apologist.
When was this survey taken. Maybe sometime in April.
NDTV exit poll:
BJP 32-42
Kang 15-20
JDS
Yossarin:
Can I suggest that in an upcoming blog, you focus on the overzealous election commission’s censorship of “celebration of democracy” in an overarching way that makes a mockery of freedom of speech.
I read some articles recently that heightened my concern. Here are the links.
EC strictures corrupt voters – Swapan Dasgupta
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnist1.asp?main_variable=Columnist&file_name=swapan%2Fswapan198%2Etxt&writer=swapan
How Dull A Democracy?
http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?sid=1&fodname=20080513&fname=sugata
BJP poll films criticise Centre, EC plays censor – http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP_poll_films_criticise_Centre_EC_plays_censor/articleshow/3008696.cms
I am sure that there are positive intentions behind this. But, has the pendulum swung too far in the other direction?
Yossarin:
Can I suggest that in an upcoming blog, you focus on the overzealous election commission’s censorship of “celebration of democracy” in an overarching way that makes a mockery of freedom of speech.
I read a couple of articles recently that heightened my concern. Here are the links.
EC strictures corrupt voters – Swapan Dasgupta
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnist1.asp?main_variable=Columnist&file_name=swapan%2Fswapan198%2Etxt&writer=swapan
How Dull A Democracy?
http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?sid=1&fodname=20080513&fname=sugata
BJP poll films criticise Centre, EC plays censor
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP_poll_films_criticise_Centre_EC_plays_censor/articleshow/3008696.cms
I am sure that there are positive intentions behind this. But, has the pendulum swung too far in the other direction?
Can phase 3 give BJP 40 more seats??
Yossarin:
Can I suggest that in an upcoming blog, you focus on the overzealous election commission’s censorship of “celebration of democracy” in an overarching way to the point where it makes a mockery of freedom of speech?
I read a couple of articles recently that heightened my concern. Here are the links.
EC strictures corrupt voters – Swapan Dasgupta
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnist1.asp?main_variable=Columnist&file_name=swapan%2Fswapan198%2Etxt&writer=swapan
How Dull A Democracy?
http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?sid=1&fodname=20080513&fname=sugata
BJP poll films criticise Centre, EC plays censor
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP_poll_films_criticise_Centre_EC_plays_censor/articleshow/3008696.cms
I am sure you came across several more similar news clippings / instances in thre past. Some readers on the ground can add “on the ground” perspective to this as well.
I am sure that there are positive intentions behind this. But, has the pendulum swung too far in the other direction?
Gujjuman,
For sure, BJP will get 40+ in 3rd phase, no doubts about that. Of the 69 in 3rd phase they will win 41-44 easily.
Ideally they will be somewhere in the range of 103-108 seats in the end. Hopefully they can get 6-7 seats from Independents and others who dont intend to create any mischief.
My question is “Is it legally possible for a candidate who won on a JD(S) ticket to move over to BJP after the election and still carry the seat with him”.
Murali
In Udayvani and Vijaya Karnataka the total seat prediction by Narasimha Rao was given.
BJP
36 (I Phase)
38 (II Phase)
41 (III Phase)
Total 115 seats.
Congress
Total 55 seats
JD(S)
Total 42 Seats
In both the phases conducted the trend towards BJP is clearly visible. It may not be much different in III Phase. Generally no opinion poll or exit poll can predict exact seats. Karnataka is also no exception.
In 1994 it was predicted as close JD, Congress fight with BJP as distant third with around 20 seats. But actual results was JD simple majority and congress getting pushed to III place.
From the trends so far congress is winning some seats because of Individuals and local factors while BJP is winning because more people are liking the party in Karnataka. Let us wait until next sunday to validate the theorey.
Guys..all this is fine …I am just waiting for the results…with a BJP clean sweep like in Gujrat.The pdf has a lot of interesting stats, will take time to digest. One thing that strikes is that only 6% vote based on caste, 39% vote on candidates, and 46% vote for the party. I am surprised that 39% vote based on candidates – is it possible that the candidate’s caste identity plays a role in that preference? That could also explain why preference for candidates plays a larger role in rural than urban areas. i think the numbers for caste and candidates should be taken as a union atleast to some extent.
Deve Gowda and family are playing a very cynical game. Their strategy is aimed at a) getting a hung assembly b) keeping their family enemies and potential chief ministerial candidates out of the assembly c) repeating their family drama all over again, and get chief minister’s chair for the sons. it will be easier for the tail to wag the dog if potential CM candidates are kept out of assembly.
S.M.Krishna is not contesting this election. He was pushed out of karnataka politics because that was deve gowda’s price for supporting congress government – though i agree that this time congress local faction fights also played a role in keeping him out of elections. Deve Gowda was reported to have appealed to voters in Siddaramaiah’s constituency to ‘vote for whoever can defeat siddaramaiah’. Deve Gowda did not field a candidate in shikaripur, leaving a straight contest between congress-supported bangarappa and yediyurappa.
NDTV today talked about rumours that congress will go for ‘understanding’ with JD-S in third phase polling, becuase of negative trends in first two phases.
this election reminds me of last bihar assembly election. Ram vilas paswan was enthused with the first hung assembly result, and got set to play ‘king maker’ role in the next elections. The popular expert prediction was that bihar’s caste politics will produce a hung assembly again, paswan will win some 40 seats, and will happily play a ‘secular’ king making game.
The end result – Paswan down to 11 seats, a solid majority for BJP-JDU. Laloo out by the way side.
I expect a very similar result this time in Karnataka. If the voters of bihar can fool the expert predictions based on caste, so can the voters of karnataka. The father-sons party of JD-S can get very badly beaten. An election can be swept with anything above 5% margin; in a 3-cornered fight, even a lesser margin can result in a sweep. It is the margin voters who count the most, and there is no reason why karnataka can not repeat bihar.
offstumped down, too many hits due to predictions =)
guys,
my question is still unanswered
“Is it legally possible for a candidate who won on a JD(S) ticket to move over to BJP after the election and still carry the seat with him”.
Murali
Murali,
AFAIK, under the Indian anti-defection law, the minimum quorum required or a group (not an individual)to legally break away from a parent party in a legislative body is a full one-third of the seats of the parent party in the said legislative body. Period.
P.S.
Kangressis (and assorted psecs) seem to have misread the law and think it is some ‘anti-defeca-tion law’. Hence, the prevalence of chronic constipation in these pharties. They bottle up the junk inside and soon their systems begin to show the strain even on the outside. Not for nothing is it said that politics stinks.
/Have a nice day.
Murali:
The antidefection law, as you may know, defines the % of MPs or MLAs from a party that have to leave the party TOGETHER to constitute a recognizable SPLIT in the party WITHOUT them loosing their seats in the parliament or Vidhansabha. I believe it is 33%.
There is a distinct possibility that JD(s) will indeed split if BJP is 5-15 seats short of the majority.
As I had indicated in an earlier post, it is hard to predict % of extra seats won for each % of vote swing but it is true that % of extra seats won is significantly higher than % of vote share swing in the favor of the winning party (especially in multilateral contests)
Even better is the situation when one party’s vote (in this case BJP) is more concentrated while that of another party (in this case, CONGRESS) is more evenly spread.
My crystal ball therefore says that BJP will win 120-135 seats overall. Let’s wait & watch till May 25th.
Hello All,
Have a look at this inspiring speech by Modiji. A man like him inspires an entire nation. He is Sardar Patel of new India.
Shanth…
Ooops…
Have a look at this inspiring speech by Modiji. A man like him inspires an entire nation. He is Sardar Patel of new India.
Shanth…
For all of the speeches of the great Modi
http://www.youtube.com/user/vandegujarat
1. I think, one-third and above members of a party (here JDS) can defect and form a new party (new name), and made alliance with BJP. When a party completely merged with another party, there is no problem. The problem is with breaking away from a party, to suport another.
2. Let hope and pray, BJP gets absolute majority. I wish people of Karnataka are more wiser now, as in Bihar. Bihar assembly was dissolved unconstitutionally and unfairly by the Manmohan Singh govt, when JDU-BJP was about to form the govt. What happened after, in the next election people voted JDU-BJP with more than absolute majority.
===
Anti-Defection Law (an example below, what happens)
Haryana Republican Party, political party in the Indian state of Haryana. The party was founded on December 30, 2003 when the sole Republican Party of India member of the Haryana assembly, Karan Singh Dalal, broke away. On the same day Democratic Congress Party was founded as well.
Many saw HRP as a quasiparty, whose raison d’etre was to provide a loop-hole for the Anti-Defection Law as Dalal wanted to join Indian National Congress. After the Lok Sabha elections 2004 Dalal merged his HRP with Congress. But the speaker of the Haryana assembly reacted and suspended Dalal (and five other assembly members who had joined Congress) under the Anti-Defection Law. Thus the attempt on behalf of Congress to gain majority in the assembly failed.
—–
To watch the broadcast of NDTV’s exit poll for 2nd phase go here & look for “NDTV exit poll: BJP maintains lead in phase 2″
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/videopod/default.aspx
Here is the most heartening thing of this election.
Polling percentage in Udupi district – 75 percent.
Polling percentage in Dakshina Kannada – 73 percent.
These two districts are 100 percent literate.
That means educated people have voted with vengeance to BJP protesting against UPA’s ineptitude on security and other matters.
According to Suvarna exit poll
in Coastral region BJP is 45 percent
Congress is 37 percent.
Meaning sweep of coastral region of BJP even improving 85 percent performance last time.
I could not see Yediyurappas interview during exit poll.
He had already said his next priority.
Winning every seat in Karnataka and putting Advani as PM.
If election turns out as expected(I expect BJP to romp home with about minimum 125 seats and may reach 135 also) we can start counting of end of UPA.
I must say, i am happy with BJP’s performance, but very disappointed with Yeddi in the NDTV video. Man he is reading from his notes and his answers were far from convincing. Any kannadigas here, i have seen his interviews in kannada but could not understand, is he clearer and more convincing there, if english is the issue, that is not a problem. I just hope he does not dent BJP’s image after this one time flyer performance.
Murali, chill.
He’s not comfy in angrezi, doesn’t mean much. As long as his priorities are clear, he is on solid ground.
BTW< I did hear that the BJP brass were pushing for Anath Kumar, much more suave and all, for the CM gaddi in K’taka. But its good that grassroots won out. Its symbolic and proper. Anath can surely be a high profile cabinet member or something and help in improving admin.
Your predictions appear nearer to actuals. But the last moment changing hands with currency was evident from both BJP and Congress in DK and Udupi. This can slightly upset the predictions.
In Mangalore South the Christians voted enmass to Congress candidate Ivan D’Souza. This speaks of the communal thoughts and afflictions even in so called 100 percent literate districts. His past history of shifting party from JDS to Congress or the likelihood of even joining BJP to gain a ministerial berth is not given thought of at the moment with canvassing by the priests and nuns on communal basis!
The congress has not been able to deliver to the people of Mangalore during its tenures at the City Corporation rule for the past several years. Even now majority of people suffer shortage of drinking water and poor roads.
Knowingly well the bad doings, it is a tragedy that many a muslim leaders have also joined communal lobbies and given call to vote for Congress.
Is it democracy where communal cards play their role?
Is it democracy where religion plays its role for the detriment of people?
Let us see where the Communists will fit in at Mangalore and Mangalore South where they have put up their candidates.
Suresh, A report from Mangalorean.com says that Congress and JD(S) are cooperating in third round. What would be the impact to BJP prospects?
http://mangalorean.com/news.php?newstype=broadcast&broadcastid=78136
JDS-Congress enter a secret pact
Karnataka Assembly Elections 2008 – Complete Coverage
By Team Mangalorean
BANGALORE, May 17, 2008: With polling in both phases crossing a decent 60 percent, the chances of BJP’s victory run appears to be more imminent. The party might just scrape through for a simple majority or even run short of it by couple of seats for a simple majority.
Simple majority will be 113 seats and as per the exit polls at the end of the second phase the BJP is slated to get a total of 105-107 seats when the third phase ends on 22nd May. The calculations are done based on the history of voting pattern in the state the elections in 1999 that was when BJP started gaining prominence in state politics, and also the JDS had started devouring the vote share of Congress. The state was clearly divided into four zones namely Coastal belt which is dominated by BJP with interspersing of Congress, South and Central Karnataka which is a JDS dominated area-predominantly an area inhabited by Vokkaligas and the Northern Karnataka which is a Veerashaiva belt which is a hotbed of community based politics topped up with religious overtones.
The division is clearly seen in the last two elections in 1999 and 2004 and according to election watchers this division is going to be more prominent in the next phase considering the good polling percentage in the first two phases. The third phase constituencies are located in the Northern Karnataka where Congress is stronger and JDS has been gaining prominence of late due to the Vokkaliga-Veerashaiva understanding.
According to sources in the Parties the Congress and JDS have entered into a secret pact to co-operate with each other in the third phase. The nature of co-operation will be based on the strength of both parties in the constituencies. Wherever the Congress is stronger the JDS will go slow to allow the Congress to win and the Congress will give tacit support to JDS wherever its own chances are weak in some constituencies. This device was basically designed to minimize the BJP in this phase.
It is forgone conclusion that whenever the voting crosses 55 per cent the BJP stands to gain and in the last two phases the voting had been 68 per cent and 60 per cent respectively which means the BJP’s share has increased. It could be hypothetical, but the dynamics of politics cannot go wrong.
It is also evident that in the third phase bigwigs like Dharm Singh, Mallikarjuna Kharge, H.K. Patil will be contesting and their victories will be a most prominent for the Congress while does not have much stakes except for few constituencies. The BJP is likely to strain every fibre in its structure to eke out that last bit of votes as its Chief Ministerial candidate B.S. Yeddyurappa is a Veerashaiva and has already mobilized support base for the party among the various Veerashaiva religious institutions like Mutts, educational institutions and other organizations.
Usual caste arithmetic by pseudo secular media.
BJP is winning in north karnataka because of development and not due to any caste factors.
Golden Quadralateral passing thru Bangalore, Tumkur,
Davangare, Hubli, Belgaum to Maharashtra was one reason people voted overwhelmingingly to BJP during last Lok sabha election. Since BJP did not have many influential local candidates the party could not make it to assembly and emerged single largest party.
During III phase I read people like Kharge, Dharam Singh are certainly going to lose or sweating profusely. They are winning their seats for over 40 years( or 8 assembly elections). People are asking about development and development. Proabably this is Narendra Modi Gujarath effect and also partially BJP-JD(S) coalition effect which gets high marks in popular perception. I think congress and JD(S) trying to fix a match at this late stage, I would assign probability of 10 percent. JD(S) in these places is almost completely dead and surviving on congress ticket refugees and its local influential candidates. Why should they help congress which is on its way to complete death.
That’s what I thought. Why would JD(S) have a large scale alliance with the Congress since it means surrendering whatever base they have.
INC?
INC is no more, dear Yossarin, and don’t destroy that name! There is only a left wing C(I).
From the daily pioneer
BJP works on clear majority in Karnataka
Kumar Uttam | Gulbarg/Bijapur
The one major question taking a round of northern Karnataka, where elections are scheduled for May 22, is whether the BJP would get enough seats from this region to cruise to a clear majority or would it have to look for outside support?
For the BJP, this region is crucial not only for holding on to its citadel but also for improving its tally here close down on the “magic figure”. In the 224-member Assembly, a party requires support of at least 113 MLAs to form Government.
After two rounds of elections in the State, the BJP is close to that figure but to negate any chance of falling short of around half-a-dozen seats for a clear majority, it is making an extra effort to keep up its chances.
“We have experienced what coalition politics in Karnataka mean. We would not like to have a situation wherein we will have to depend on others to form Government. Things are in our favour and we hope to make it a success,” a senior BJP leader said.
Well-placed BJP sources said the party is fearing that its tally might fall short of a clear majority at 105-108 seats. In such a case, the party will have to take support of Independent MLAs and from regional parties — a situation that is BJP’s worst nightmare.
The party, however, has high hopes in the north as the region is dominated by the Lingayats who form the main support base of the BJP and whose leader, Yedduriyappa is its CM candidate. Besides,
In areas bordering Maharashtra, the BJP is the clear leader while in those bordering Andhra Pradesh, it is facing some resistance from Congress State president Mallikarjuna Kharge and former Chief Minister Dharam Singh.
Kharge and Singh are contesting from different constituencies in Gulbara district. Singh is contesting for a record victory of nine times in a row.
Also, there are 31 Assembly seats in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region and by virtue of being close to the State ruled by it, the Congress is hoping to inflict new wounds on BJP.
“With exit polls giving us a clear lead on our nearest rival, we want to project ourselves as the only party that can provide a stable Government. Our campaign for the last round will have special focus on this,” another BJP leader said.
Meanwhile, the gap is narrowing between the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) as 69 constituencies get to the grind here in the last phase.
The JD(S) is giving the Congress a good fight for the second slot, after BJP. This is primarily because the Congress has failed to consolidate the anti-Lingayat votes in its favour.
The JD(S) remains the undisputed leader of Vokalliga community, to which JD(S) leader HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy belong, while the BSP is eating into Congress’ Dalit votebank.
The apathy of Congress leader and former Chief Minister SM Krishna, another Vokalliga leader brought in to woo away the community from JD(S), has done no good to his party.
Also, annoying senior Muslim leader CK Jaffer Sharief has adversely impacted Congress’ poll prospects, though it continues to enjoy the support of the major section of the group.
The Congress’ reluctance to name its chief ministerial candidate has confused voters even as the JD(S) has taken a lead by projecting Kumaraswamy for the top slot.
If that was not enough rebels across the State are making things difficult for the Congress.
Observers say it would have been “difficult for the JD(S) to repeat their last performance in case there was a consolidation of anti-Lingayat votes in favour of the Congress. But this is not happening.”
Exit polls (which took into account the first two phases of the election and the forthcoming last) place Deve Gowda close to what he achieved in 2004 — 58 seats.
Despite all odds, the exit polls predict, Deve Gowda’s party would return to the Assembly with around 45-50 seats.
This could be bad news for the Congress, which is hoping to improve its tally by bringing to its side the voters who would have had drifted away from the JD(S).
After the 2004 elections, Congress had 65 MLAs in this southern State.
Really bad scenario would be getting 105-108 seats where BJP is open to blackmail by independents or other parties.
yes arjun,
i really fear that situation, in fact i am not sure if there will be more than 7-8 independent winners. I just hope BJP gets (32+38+45) in the 3 phases and gets it on its own. If they need 2-3 seats from independents its ok, but more than that is 5 years of nightmare.
Ashok Malik from the Pioneer.
BJP is thinking of 35 + 40 in the first two phases. So 40 in third phase would be enough.
Notice pseudo journalists are coming up with Karnataka as a Hindutva lab. The NDTV story recently on BJP’s southern Hindutva is a case in point.
Ashok Malik
Saffron Sunrise
As the BJP inches towards its first legislative majority in southern India, the Congress apprehends a shock result in a State it ruled till 2004, Ashok Malik tries answering the big questions from the Karnataka election –
Q. How far can the BJP go?
A. For the BJP, a legislative majority in the Karnataka Assembly election seems within smelling distance. In the three-phase election, the BJP is poised – in internal assessments backed by exit polls – to win about 35 seats in the first round, which saw polling in 89 seats. In 2004, this belt – in south Karnataka, the weakest region for the saffron party – had yielded only 10 seats. In the second phase (which saw polling for 66 seats on May 16), the BJP expects to pick up about 40 seats.
The third phase (May 22; 69 seats) is taking place in the party’s Lingayat stronghold in north Karnataka. This will, in effect, decide if the BJP forms its first independent government in south India or doesn’t. If, as is the in-house calculation, the party wins about 45 seats, it is home and dry. Otherwise, it will probably stop a little below the 113 seats it needs to get a simple majority in the 224 member house.
Whatever the final outcome — just short of a majority or comfortably above — the fact is the BJP is likely to gain substantially from the 79 seats it won in 2004, when it finished first in a perilously hung Assembly. How has it done it?
Paratrooper journalists and glib television anchors in Delhi are, of course, insistent that the party has run a “communal campaign”. Indeed, reporter after reporter in Karnataka has asked BJP leaders the same astoundingly tiresome questions: “Is this the next Gujarat?”; “Is Karnataka the new laboratory of Hindutva?”
Such commentary would seem downright politically illiterate. In reality, the BJP is contesting the Karnataka election as a regional party. Backed strongly by the Lingayats (18 per cent of all voters) and positioning the community’s BS Yeddyurappa as its chief ministerial candidate, the party has assiduously built a social coalition around its core support.
Lingayats dominated Karnataka politics in the early years of the State but stayed with the Congress (O) when Indira Gandhi split the mother party in 1969. Since then, they have drifted into the Janata parivar and experimented with a series of anti-Congress forces. Today, their consolidation behind the BJP is near absolute and the party is expected to win 65-70 per cent of the community’s vote. In the first phase, where the Lingayat presence was less pronounced, some pollsters gave the BJP 90 per cent of the community’s votes.
What has helped the BJP is that there has been no counter-mobilisation of an anti-Lingayat social coalition. Karnataka’s other big community, the Vokkaligas (16 per cent of all voters), have broadly gone with HD Deve Gowda, with pollsters giving the Janata Dal (S) 40-45 per cent of the Vokkaliga vote. The Congress is also led by a Vokkaliga, SM Krishna, but one with less appeal and less rooted in the community than Deve Gowda.
That is why about half the Vokkaliga vote has split between the Congress and the BJP, say pollsters, ensuring that there has been accretion and not hostility to the BJP’s Lingayat-led platform.
An idea of just how local the BJP’s campaign has been comes from its newspaper advertisements. There are no photographs of national leaders, no obligatory references to the Vajpayee-Advani elder statesmen. Instead, a large photograph of Yeddyurappa, flanked by former Union minister Ananth Kumar (Brahmin) and State BJP president DV Sadanand Gowda (Vokkaliga), is being used to solicit votes.
The choice of pictures tells the story. Like in Gujarat, the BJP is contesting in Karnataka as a State and context-specific regionally-anchored national party. It is a model the Congress pioneered in the 1950s but has now forgotten.
Q. What has the Congress done wrong?
A. Compared to the pictorial clarity of the BJP, the Congress’ newspaper advertisements are like the solution to a jigsaw puzzle. Take the one that appeared in the Deccan Herald on the morning of Saturday, May 17. It carried photographs of Indira, Rajiv, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Prithviraj Chavan (in charge of the party campaign), Krishna, CK Jaffer Sharief, M Mallikarjun Kharge (State unit president) and Siddaramaiah.
The message is decidedly confusing. Is the Congress seeking a mandate for historical memory and a national dynasty? Is it a Karnataka social coalition? What does it stand for? In truth, the party is burdened with leftovers from the 1980s and 1990s.
Krishna is past his prime and is the favoured candidate, as one BJP leader puts it, “of the non-voting classes of Bangalore”. Senior leaders Dharam Singh (a former chief minister) and MP Prakash could face defeat in their individual constituencies. M Veerappa Moily is more a dynamo in Congress politics than State politics.
That apart, the Congress is much divided. As a BJP MP admitted, “If Krishna, Jaffer Sharief, Kharge and Siddaramaiah had gone on a Statewide roadshow together it would have been a formidable combine.” It did not happen. Muslims have stayed with the Congress — the party is projected to win six to seven of every 10 Muslim votes — but Dalits (20 per cent of Karnataka) have switched loyalties.
Projecting Kharge (a Dalit) as chief minister may have helped the Congress cement the minority-Dalit alliance and given the party a fighting chance, but that was not to be. Only Siddaramaiah — who left the JD(S) to join the Congress – seems to have transferred the eight per cent Kuruba community vote to his new party.
The Congress has squandered resources in this election, scheduling a series of public meetings for such leaders as Kapil Sibal (Delhi-based), Subhash Yadav (Madhya Pradesh), Santosh Bagrodia (a Marwari from Rajasthan) and Shankarsinh Vaghela (Gujarat). They probably logged more frequent flyer points than drew incremental votes.
In sum, the Congress is likely to slip below the 65 seat tally it attained in 2004. It is a close battle between the JD(S) and the Congress for second place.
Q. What of the smaller parties?
A. The Humble Farmer ran the cleverest campaign of all. Realising he had to capitalise on his Vokkaliga base, he focused on about 90 seats, more or less ignoring the rest of the State. He poured money and political capital into his heartland, the region around Hasan, in south-central Karnataka.
This concentrated electioneering is likely to yield HD Deve Gowda about 40-50 seats. If the Congress had run the BJP close, it would have made the JD(S) a kingmaker. In case the BJP wins a majority, Deve Gowda and his sons could face a short-term crisis, with sections of his party wanting to break away and build bridges with the new establishment.
The surprise package of the election has been the BSP. Mayawati’s party has split the Dalit vote. The Congress expected to win about half but will probably have to be content with a third or so; the BSP has sliced away the rest. Mayawati’s candidates could win two or three Assembly constituencies, in Mysore-Chamarajanagar, in the southern part of the State.
Like in the Delhi municipal elections in 2007, the BSP’s emergence as a third force has hurt the Congress and benefited the BJP. Could it anticipate the Assembly elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan later this year? That is the unanswered question thrown up by the Karnataka contest.
@Phenomenum of a FLICKERING CANDLE….They will be wiped out these vermin…BJP …Ahoy…..
Yes Jiggs,
Lets hope Bharat emerges successful. I am least worried about Delhi and Rajasthan election or even Chattisgarh, they will romp home there for sure. Karnataka and MP are the worries. Karnataka, close but not yet home until 25th, MP and all Modi and Advani (hindi heartland) will blast it for BJP. Lets just pray that they get that magic 113.
Jai Hind
Karnataka Poll: Delimitation confuses parties
http://www.dailypioneer.com/indexn12.asp?main_variable=NATION&file_name=nt1%2Etxt&counter_img=1
As Suresh had mentioned, Dharam Singh could lose his seat. People in his constituency are throwing stones at him!!
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/311428.html
@arjun…I read that too….TRUTH ALWAYS PREVAILS….People know what the Congress is all about…Keep going Kannada’s…Way to go….
Also Read:
Karnataka Poll: Delimitation confuses parties
http://www.dailypioneer.com/indexn12.asp?main_variable=NATION&file_name=nt1%2Etxt&counter_img=1
You all are dreaming..its going to be 95 for cong 75 for BJP & 35 for JDS & remaining for rest
http://www.livemint.com/2008/05/19011245/6-reasons-why-Congress-will-lo.html
Finally, prediction from “G.V.L. Narasimha Rao”.
[...] stunningly researched poll predictions and poll-watch kind of information, look no further than Offstumped. This is more a culmination of five years’ worth of observations of some amazingly dirty tour [...]
This is good.
You have put your money where your mouth is and put your predictions on the blog.
I hope, whatever the result, you will do a follow up and tell us how you did..
Guys, on 22nd NDTV, CNN-IBN and Asianet Suvarna are bringing out their exit poll predictions, my personal assessment is
BJP 105-115
Cong 65-75
JDS 20-30
Others 10-20
2008 Karnataka Assembly Results: My Guess
BJP- 122
Cong. 60
JDS – 36
Others-8