Well its time for Poll time levity once again with CNN-IBN’s Comedy Circus. So we have this joke of a pre-poll survey from CNN-IBN and Deccan Herald. Analyzing this poll any further would be a travesty of this blog’s time.
It suffices to say that before any opinion poll from the media can be taken with any seriousness or credibility, the incompetent pollsters must explain how it is that their sampling is different and more representative than all previous attempts.
This question is particularly relevant in Karnataka for this is the first election with a completely altered electoral map thanks to delimitation. There? is no way any pollster can come up with a representative sample based on past polling history. It would require a careful piece by piece analysis and extensive inteviewing to determine what constitutes a representative sample set.
But then our incompetent pollster dont really believe in being held accountable.
Dont forget “No Pollster Left Behind” from Offstumped after the Narendra Modi BJP victory in Gujarat.
A rerun follows:
Who says there is no inclusive growth in the Private Sector ?
Mayawati maybe bending over backwards to usher Reservations in the Private Sector but the mainstream media has stolen a march on her.
Today there is more Social Justice in the 24?7 News Channels than in the PPP ventures of Uttar Pradesh.
Puzzled !
Well, how else would you explain the Affirmative Action in the mainstream media that ensures no pollster is left behind.
Still puzzled !
Well dig this.
The first time you make a mistake at your workplace you probably would be excused with a caution that it be avoided?in the futur?and the mistake if no an expensive one will likely be treated an exception. On the other hand if the mistake was an expensive one, it would likely be probed, root causes would be established and measures would be put in place to prevent even an unintentional recurrence.
Now if you make the same mistake for the second time it would likely invite accountability for the slip, responsibility for its fallout and penal action for punishment.
But then none of it for our pollsters. They may make the same mistake repeatedly over and over again but they are never held accountable for their wrong predictions, there is never a question of holding anyone responsible and one may as well forget seeking penal action for punishment.
The only parallel for such an unprecedented forgiving attitude in the work place is Affirmative Action.
So the question Offstumped is posing to Yogendra Yadav, who famously proposed?a Social Disadvantage Index, is
How socially disadvantaged are you pollsters that you are never held up to any performance benchmarks and there is always a next time to get your act right ?
One may dismiss away exit polls as entertainment and pollsters as useful idiots but not anymore.
Yogendra Yadav went beyond mere entertainment and crystal ball gazing. He went on record on the eve of polling in Gujarat, to influence the outcome with his now infamous ?democracy is taking revenge on Narendra Modi? tagline. He was not playing the role of a mere pollster who was passively observing. He admitted to a role and an agenda that went much beyond passive observation. This paragraph sums it all up
Another form is the rise of media, and not just the Delhi-based English and secular media, as counter-establishment. This has prevented Modi from setting the agenda of elections. This election is not about the macro economic achievements of Gujarat. Those achievement might impress the middle class urban Gujarati but have very little value outside this charmed circle. Ordinary people wish to see what these have meant in their own lives. Speak to any poor Gujarati in rural or urban areas about these achievements and he will narrate to you the tale of his woes in obtaining the basic necessities of life. Modi?s well cultivated aura of omniscience and omnipotence begins to boomerang here: the voters hold him responsible for everything, from price rise and lack of employment to agrarian crisis, the state of BPL card and having to pay electricity bills.
For someone with a habit for getting his math horribly wrong Yogendra Yadav?s influence is not limited to poll time prognostication. Someone had suggested in jest that perhaps Yadav needs a saffron dose of Vedic Mathematics to get his math right on the exit polls.? Reason, he had been at the forefront of the UPA?s Detox campaign on NCERT Text Books. Those very same textbooks that have given academic sanction to the NHRC?s lie of non-existent mass graves in Gujarat. Yes graves that were characterized as ?Mass Graves? even before they were dug while the media and the NHRC conveninetly ignore the CPI-M?s shame in West Bengal with the daily discovery of multiple graves by the CRPF in Nandigram.
So Yadav has a record here of insinuating Gujarat based on half-truths with little respect for facts.
Think of the message this sends to the generations of students who will be moulded by textbooks that have Yogendra Yadav?s imprints all over them. That it is ok to peddle an agenda based on half-truths, it is ok to influence electoral outcomes with these half truths camouflaged as science and that it is ok to get away with all of it despite being repeatedly wrong.
CNN-IBN that has been promoting Yadav?s psephology has a responsibility to the people of Gujarat and India at large. Rajdeep Sardesai belatedly has attempted a course correction in this op-ed in the Hindustan Times but that is not enough.
There has to be accountability and punishment.
Offstumped Bottomline: It is unacceptable to peddle half-truths and a political agenda at the same time and get away with it after being repeatedly wrong. If CNN-IBN wants to redeem its credibility and survive as a viable media house it must hold Yogendra Yadav accountable for patently wrong exit polls that were hand in glove with motivated and biased editorials. As punishment it must sever any business relationship it may have with his organisation?failing which it must be prepared for a public boycott of its news channels.
Filed under: Karnataka Polls 2008
In the game of dhimmedia kirket, the psec pollsters seem to never be ‘out’.
While their opponents – the so-called saffron bigots-seem to get bowled even on wide balls.
Course-correction would be an imperative if accountability were even 50% enforced. The current situation suggests that media monies are drawn not from audience approval (the middle class is angrezi media’s biggest audience in India) but from ‘other’ sources.
CNN_IBN gets American funds and hence, understandably, pushes the US viewpoint. Whether on the N-deal, Burma, Tibet or assertive nationalism of the Hindutva variety. The extent to which editors of once hallowed newspapers like the Indian Express, TOI and the HT have fallen (to toe the US line) is sad to see. They only oppose the commies when it comes to the N-deal but are remarkably silent on Nandigram etc.
If the middle-classes do not reclaim a nationalistic bent on news coverage in their country (and by that I mean, one that uses Delhi’s POV, not Washington’s or Beijing’s), we’ll only have ourselves to blame.
Unrelated, BUT proof that Mr. Advani probably reads offstumped ! He must’ve read yossarin’s rant about populism to feel the need to justify it =)
http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2008/04/01/karnataka-polls-why-populism-almost-always-fails/
Advani justifies ‘populist sops’ for Karnataka poll
http://in.news.yahoo.com/indiaabroad/20080430/r_t_ians_nl_politics/tnl-advani-justifies-populist-sops-for-k-a4b7bec.html
‘If populism means efficient, corruption-free and well-targeted delivery of the most basic needs to the most needy sections of our society, yes, we will indeed practice more of such poverty-reducing populism. I consider this to be our moral and Constitutional duty. Money well spent on such missions is indeed investment in India’s future,’ he said.
It’s simple, as one fact after another comes up, the kind of journalism pursued by CNN IBN is revealed.
The only thing I m afraid of is that due to the nice way in which they present and the lack of any relevant competition in the English electronic media, many people in the upper middle classes seem to swear by the view offered by IBN. So Modi is bad, Sonia is sacrifice personified, etc. etc.
It’s high time we have better English news channels.
I do not understand why BJP isn’t starting a channel of their own. It is extremely sickening to observe the level of decadance the private media channels practice. For want of special access to secure installations of our country, access to visiting foreign dignitaries, Padma Shri and so on and so forth these people have shirked their responsibility as one of the pillars of democracy. They are now defending corruption at the highest level. Did any of you watch the program hosted by Sonia Singh Varma(mmm… all women with the same name are devious)?
The question was :
Should have the PMO intervened in the Baalu’s case?
75% said yes and 25% said no. I couldn’t help noticing the extent to which these guys are hard selling Congress performance. Look at the question :you could interpret it any way. Of course the respondants were overwhelmingly against what the PMO did. I am sure they would have wanted PMO interven and stop this nonsense but Sonia Varma proudly said that the people are backing the PM and what he did.
There can only be two inferences. Either the Indian people have gone nuts or all the people that voted in this program should been mentally deranged Congress supporters.
Please guys save our country from these propagandist media houses. They are all against India remaining as one country.
I had asked a similar question that Shanth is asking as to why the right-wingers do not start their own channel.
Apparently, one needs 150+ crores to bring out a daily news paper (and probably a lot more for a TV channel) and the pay-back period (if the channel finally turns profitable) can be as long as 10 years. Not that many entrepreneurs either have the capital or drive or patience to know the outcome after 10 years.
So here are the other 2 interesting follow up questions (that I do not have answer to either).
There are 30 billionaires on Forbes 500 list. Even if just 10 of them fork out 5 million US$ each (which is 0.5% or less of their net worth) then 50MM$ (200 crore Rs) can create a viable TV Channel that broadcasts independent nationalistic view point.
An even more viable option is for 1 existing TV channel to realize that there is a 30-50% population that is right-inclined and feels under-served / under-represented in the mainstream media. There is too much of crowd among the congress / left and pseudo-secular leaning news media. If one of them decides to change course and pursue the large right-inclined population, it can get a bigger audience a lot quicker. Thus if not for “paramartha”, at least for “swartha”, I would imagine that a TV channel may decide to pursue the right-inclined audience. FOX News Channel pursued this exact strategy (with it’s conservative leaning news coverage and analysis) as against the perceived liberal bias of others (such as NBC, ABC, CNN & CBS) and has become a very significant player in the US mass media in under 10 years. What I do not have answer to is how come none of the players have realized this. After all they are not idiots to NOT know their selfish interests. Or are they? NDTV, CNN-IBN, and others – are you reading? This just may be your “Eureka!” moment if you are smart enough.
While we can wait for the answers to these questions to emerge, we can do our own bit by surfing right-leaning websites / TV Channels (if any) more than others. Offstumped, Pioneer, Organizer, Tarun Bharat, Panchajanya, Hindu Vivek Kendra (HVK) are a few websites that come to mind. There may be others. We can keep each other informed.
01.05.2008
It is rightly suggested that the Saffron should have their own channel.
At least on these channel two future Prime Minister of BJP will go on broadcasting their lies of achievements.
As correctly said in GUJARAT AT PRESENT HIGH MIDDLE INCOME GROUPS ARE BENEFITED. BPL / URBAN POOR AND MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE OF GUJARAT ARE SUFFERING. ONE DAY THE MIDDLE CLASS GUJARTI WILL REPENT THE PRESENT DEVELOPMENT POLICY ADOPTED BY THE MODI’S TEMPLATE AS SAID BY Mr.L.K. ADVANIJI TO ADOPT MODIJI’s GUJARAT MODEL OF DEVELOPMENT AND HIS TEMPLATE OF PROGRESS.
IN 20 POINTS DEVELOPMENT GUJARAT ALREADY CAME DOWN FROM TOP TO 14 POSITION. AND IN FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN PLACE OF GUJARAT JHARGHAND IS ON FIRST NUMBER.
HOW LONG Mr.L.K.ADVANI WILL SUPPRESS TRUTHS
Dr.R.K.D.Goel
Here is a new kid on the block….
http://newsx.com/
I still remember the faces of Sardesai and Yadav when the results of Gujarat elections started trickling in favour of Mr. Narendra Modi…..
Both looked like Idiots…..
dr. r.k.d.goel needs english lessons.
HI Yossarin,
I think you have raised a valid point on pollsters and Yogendra Yadav in particular. He prodly claims that the survey conducted is the most extensive, which has covered, hold your breath, 5000 respondents. How that miniscule date points can make Mr. Yadav so confident is baffling, especially given his dodgy record in predicting poll outcomes. This psudo-science packaged in convinient holier-than-thou jhoolawala imagery that Mr. Yadav so represents is now frankly reprehensible.
I think the leadeship in rejecting media should come from BJP itself rather than waiting for viewers to reject.
Looking at current situation in karnataka, where people want to give clear mandate this time, projecting congress as sureshot winner is akin to active meddling and influencing opinion. So IBN should be considered part of congress and should be opposed wholeheartedly like BJP opposes congress. What say yossarin??
gujjuman – absolutely
[...] Yesterday Offstumped questioned what was new about CNN-IBN’s methodology, well today we take a shot at dissecting that methodology which is described here. [...]
[...] Yesterday Offstumped questioned what was new about CNN-IBN’s methodology, well today we take a shot at dissecting that methodology which is described here. [...]
This was a opinion published by R.Bakhter Solomon after conducting an opinion poll in March and April. Its results were published in local newspapers like Vijaya Karnataka. The conclusion was as things stood BJP emerging singles largest party eventhough congress had a slight edge in total votes (Because BJP votes were heavily concentrated in coastral and Malnad areas and northern karnataka(both Hyderabad and Bombay Karnataka) and urban areas of southern Karnataka (Bangalore(36 seats) and other urban areas(8 seats)) while weak in rural areas of old mysore.
1)After the filing of nominations congress made a real mess with each faction fighting each other leaving rebels in many places while BJP did a real good job (eventhough they were rebels in BJP who were managed well). In fact Congress already gifted 1 seat to BJP in Davanagere North due to factional fight. While it is not contesting and supporting Bangarappa against yediyurappa in Shikaripur.
2) BJP took care to manage strategic defections both from Congress and JD(S) to overcome shortfall in rural areas of Mysore.(Ex Former Minister Mahadev from Congress in Chamarajnagar district, Former minister Devegowda in Mysore rural, Former MP Madegowda in Mandya, Bacchegowda in Hoskote in Bangalore rural).
3) BSP took lot of congress and JD(S) rebels and this should be bad news for congress since it has to fight congress rebels in nearly 40 places apart from BSP in all 222 remaining seats congress is contesting.
Here is my prediction after filing of nominations.
29 + incremental 3 percent support + 1 percent swing during campaigning (33 percent)
Congress – 3 percent loss due to rebels and BSP factor (28 percent)
JD(S) – around 12 percent
BSP – 4 percent
Seat projection
BJP – 125 – 135
Congress – 45-55
JD(S) – 15-25
BSP – 4- 8
Here are the opinion polls predicted by Solomon of Chennai.
In general, voters are not happy about the present election. Therefore, we do not see a “massive emergence” of voters to go to the booth either to support or reject a party. There is no sympathy wave or anti-incumbency factor.
? Many districts are yet to show signs of electoral activity, while in few districts like Mysore, Bellary and Davangere, election fever is fast rising.
? The ongoing realignment of political forces at the District level and the perceived division of voters along caste lines have buoyed up the hopes of many sitting MLAs at the district level once again to get elected from their seats.
? It is most unlikely that the State polling will cross 65% – the highest being 85% and the lowest even 35%. This indicates the need for voters awareness – not only to make them to come to the booth, but even to tell the process of voting perfectly.
According to a lawyer from Bangalore, “many educated refrain from exercising their franchise citing various reasons”
However, these are the very people who blame the Government policies and politicians for all the plagues affecting the country.
? There is a kind of tilt among sizeable voters towards the BJP, as JD(S) has denied the former’s due share of power under the “Power Sharing Formula”. But then, this sympathy can be cashed in only if BJP field better candidates.
Any heart burn from good aspiring candidates, if they are denied the seats, may snow ball into dissidence or rebellion.
? People in general are much worried about the price rise of essential commodities but due to confusion on the matter, they are not able to pinpoint the main “party” behind the price rise. While few blame the Centre, others blame the State Government.
? In general, the lower middle class is not happy about the price rise. The middle class sees a kind of consumer boom, resulting in cheap, good quality consumer goods. What worries most is the price rise of food and other essential commodities of daily use.
? Many think that elections only provide a chance to a new group of legislatures to “amass property”. The legislature in their opinion has not been able to provide good roads, water, electricity, good education and health to children and families, leave alone they being “even available to them to hear their grievances”. According to them, the elected ones spent most of the time either in Bangalore or in approaching the political bosses !
? One auto driver in Belgaum said that
“All MLAs, MPs and even the ward members are only for power”
? A teacher from Davangere said that
“voters during election time fall prey to all kind of promises only to repent later”
? A farmer from Chitradurga district feels that
“the waiver of loans and low interest rates are only to win over the voters and not emerged with real concern”
? A small farmer from Tumkur said that he was not able to get remunerative prices for his product like ragi, jowar and cotton whereas when he buys essential commodities in the market for house consumption, he pays three or four times more for the same produce, his co-farmers sells in the market.
? A teacher who is now constructing his house with a LIC loan in SIRA lamented over the price of cement & steel. A Self-Help Group by name Sree Durgambika from Jagalur wants interest free loan for its group, if not full subsidy of Rs.25,000/- per group.
For the first time in the history of Assembly Poll in Karnataka, a sizeable population expects some kind of law and order problem in few areas. According to few, the BJP and Congress leaders are out to capture power by all means. This is bound to create problems at the micro level! Nevertheless, most feel happy about the Election Commission’s Code of Conduct, especially the banning of meetings beyond 10.00 p.m. They also would like small / big rallies, and burning of the effigies of rival parties to be banned in the State.
Party Preference for voting –
? Whom are you likely to vote for ?
76% only have come out with their clear answers. Out of this, 31% preferred Congress, followed by the BJP – 29%, JD(S) 13%, the BSP 3% and others – 24%. From the preferences indicated, the Congress seem to have slight edge over BJP. CONGRESS seems to have been liked by more women in comparison to women’s preference to BJP.
The investigators had also enquired the voters as to whom they voted last time and only 58% responded to this. Out of 75 who had earlier voted to JD(S) have now shifted their preference. Out of this oscillating voters, Congress got 46%, 42% by the BJP and balance – others. This would mean that those who deserted JD(S) or JD(U) are more or less evenly divided between Congress & BJP. Only a slight edge in this group for Congress. This is a wafer thin margin of 4% and it may change depending upon the “campaign”.
CONGRESS & BJP – These two parties seems to have taken good number of voters from JD(S). It is a great loss not only for former Chief Minister Mr. Kumarasamy but even for Mr.Deva Gowda who occasionally nourishes a desire to become an active player in the national politics, if not want to be the kingmaker in Karnataka. According to the study, JDS has nearly lost 27% of its base. This is maximum they can loose also.
On the other hand, for reasons not easily be attributed, CONGRESS supporters base has marginally increased compared to last election, whereas the BJP base, there is an increasing trend more than what one could see. This would indicate that though in overall :
? The BJP seems to be behind CONGRESS, there is every chance of BJP very closely fighting it out, to emerge as the single largest party in the State provided it conducts the election campaign in a systematic way.
? It is also true of Congress party.
? The winning or loosing all depend upon the campaign strategy.
Any change in the scenario depends upon the campaign strategy at the constituency and booth level and the way the national leaders conduct themselves in the State. The deep involvement of national leaders from both CONGRESS & BJP, depending upon their intensity of campaign is likely to change the course of the election.
Presently, there are 595 voters who are not willing to divulge their preference. But at least 50% from this group will vote on the “D” day. Whether they will fall in line as their brothers and sisters had earlier decided or take an entirely new decision, depends upon the heat of the campaign. If they act like the earlier decided group, the likelihood of Congress getting few more seats can’t be ruled out.
CHIEF MINISTER – The voters were given eight names of probable CM candidates & were asked whom they would consider as the best suited for the post. Surprisingly, Mr.S.M. Krishna emerged in the top closely followed by Mr. Yeddyurappa. On the other hand, when asked whom you would think will become the CM, Mr. Yeddyurappa has a slight edge over Mr.S.M. Krishna, as majority in the BJP as well as outsiders think that if the BJP party is voted to power, he would be the best choice. On the other hand, in the Congress, there are too many claimants.
S.No. Name of the CM Candidate % of people votes Priority List
according to the voters % of people votes
1.
Mr. S.M. Krishna
21
Mr. B.S. Yeddyurappa
23
2. Mr. B.S. Yeddyurappa 18 Mr. S.M. Krishna 19
3. Mr. Mallikarjuna Kharge 08 Mr. Mallikarjuna Kharge 07
4. Mr. Siddaramaih 03 Mr. H.D. Kumarasamy 10
5. Mr. Sadananda Gowda 02 Mr. Siddaramaih 02
6. Mr. K.S. Eswarappa 03 Mr. Sadananda Gowda 03
7. Mr. H.D. Kumarasamy 11 Mr. K.S. Eswarappa 04
8. Mr. H.D. Revanna 02 Mr. H.D. Revanna 02
9. Can’t say 32 Can’t say 30
The following are being considered by the voters as the “issue” that affected them / community or the State. They are listed in the order of priority :
Issues %
Lack of good roads, infrastructure and transport facilities
16
Non-availability of good drinking irrigation water / drainage / sanitation facilities 11
Current power cut in villages 12
Price of essential commodities 18
Government programmes are not reaching proper persons 08
Corruption at all levels 07
No house, no land, no work, poverty, no BPL card 08
No idea 20
A handful of people also say that no Government will be able to do anything on this. The people only want clear air, water, good environment, health and facilities. According to them, if all these were provided, the others will fall in place automatically !
Conclusion – Opinion polls are always just a guessing game. People change their opinion on trivial things and hence no one can precisely predict or forecast election results. This is a crucial election. All the parties have promised some kind of “free goods & services”. Will all their promises cut ice with the voters ? A social worker tells, “Yes, to an extent of 3 – 5% will fall prey to these promises.” Since each party is promising one free scheme or other, in the nett result, this will get neutralized and so will not benefit any party. That would mean that the party which has the organizational skill will win the election and not those with the policies and principles.
After Gujarat elections, I dont waste my time watching opinion polls. Yogendra Yadav is produce of the quota system in the country and so he cannot think straight.
The media in India is corrupt and all this proves it.
It would be interesting to find out how many times in his career as a psephologist has Yogendra Yadav predicted a sweep/ clear majority/ slim majority by the BJP/NDA formation, rightly or wrongly.
on lighter note…
Jai Jai Italy mata…
Rajdeep sardesai ko tum dog-biscuit khilata…….
CNN-IBN tumari jay-jay gaataa…
*courtesy orkut Namo forum.
My inital assessment (hypothesis) is that the so called qualified psephologists are good for nothing in terms of their ability to predict election outcome. However, I’d prefer to prove them wrong on objective basis.
Any one who has data of previous predictions of state/national elections from these duo (and if you have from rest of the tribe also), you can pass it on to me as hereunder:
====
# period(year), State/National Election (Type), # Seat predicted(by psephologists like YY with CNNIBN for major parties), # Seat Actual won by these parties; & I’d update you on how much confidence you can have in their next/future prediction; including how accurate (or inaccurate) their work is.
====
This will be the response in same statistical terms which they have been debating endlessly for their own hidden/ulterior goals.
Hi,
You can send me the info at sis.global@gmail.com
i allways felt CNN-IBN has a congress tilt. good to come across so many who share the same view.
[...] GVL Narasimha Rao has stuck his neck out and spoken and so has fellow blogger Sandeep, so where is the CNN-IBN’s Yogendra Yadav - Will he rise to the challenge and defend his prognositcation against global benchmarks or [...]
[...] of all hues have opined on what the outcome will likely be we will also hear today from the infamous CNN-IBN and Yogendra Yadav who’s credibility will be on the line here. Offstumped will be particularly interested to see [...]
what happened to SUDARSHAN TV ????
It is the first channel of the right wing…
It’s not just the JNU inspired P-sec ideology which is behind all these anti-national channels/papers and just this vanilla p-sec anti-right cannot and will not be sustained for this long. It is the Petro-riyals and Missionary-Dollars-Euros which is keeping this fire burning in all of our journos.
It’s plain and simple.