Its stock taking time on the UPA-Left standoff. The CPM, after the meeting of the 85-member Central Committee, today stuck to its stand on the nuclear deal, but toned down its threat to the Manmohan Singh government, or so it seems to the mainstream media. So what exactly did Karat say
“The Central Committee does not want the current crisis to affect the government,”
But then it came with a rider.
“this is contingent upon the government not proceeding further with the agreement”.
While some in the media see this as some kind of softening what Prakash Karat is really saying is it is time for the Congress to weigh the cost of preserving Manmohan Singh’s adamancy against the cost of fresh elections. Karat’s gauntlet to Manmohan packaged in a conciliatory tone draws strength from the carte blanche he got from the Central Committee
“take whatever necessary measures to see that the agreement is not operationalised”
As we hit a week after the UPA was put on Life Support the contours of the next election whenever it is likely to be held are beginning to emerge. In yesterday’s post Offstumped analyzed the CPM’s expansion strategy and how it is attempting to frame the debate and drawing the BJP into following suit. Today the Indian Express carried an interesting piece on the Prime Minister’s Office attempting to push for a debate on the Rajinder Sachar Committee Report on the state of Muslims and welfare measures in response to the same. While the fast tracking of the Sachar Report is not surprising the UPA thinking behind it is interesting
If this can be pulled off, UPA leaders say, it will also help cement the frayed bond between the Left and the Congress as it was on the basis of a fundamental anti-BJP plank that the UPA was formed. Apart from isolating the BJP, the government hopes this will also serve to gently remind the Left of the state of Muslims in CPI-M ruled states.
In yesterday’s post Offstumped posed the question to the BJP that if it has to have a serious shot at power it must define the next election around issues that make it about the BJP versus the rest. Well it looks like the UPA is intent on lending a helping hand here for the BJP. With Sonia Gandhi’s intervention in Maharashtra at the behest of Muslim groups to take action on the SriKrishna Commission Report, the Congress has unwittingly handed the BJP-Shiv Sena combine a potent issue to re-unite against a common foe. If the UPA Government at the Center were to further persist with its Muslim Entitlement Agenda in the build up to elections the BJP’s task will likely become much simpler in making the next election about it versus the rest. The Muslim Entitlement Agenda though has some risks for the BJP. It is a potential wedge issue within the NDA with present allies like the JD-U, Trinamul Congress and former allies like the TDP likely to pursue politics of competitive minorytism. It will take some creative thinking on the part of the BJP to pre-empt competitive minorytism within its fold of allies.
We wrap up stock taking of the week after life support with some friday levity thanks to Medha Patkar and her cohorts writing in rediff.com
we as representatives of people’s movements must reiterate our stand, which is that the deal is not just anti-democratic but against peace, and against environmentally sustainable energy generation and self-reliant economic development
Looks like Medha missed out adding Global Warming, Narmada Bachao and blaming Narendra Modi as well in good measure while she was at it.
Offstumped Bottomline: The Left as predicted is lobbing the ball back in to the Congress’ court. Week after Life Support it is decision time for Sonia Gandhi.
Can she convince poll wary allies and MPs to take the gamble or will she wilt to undermine the Prime Minister’s authority paving the way to the end of the Manmohan Singh Premiership ?
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It is Manmohan Singh’s adamancy against the strident opposition by the Left and BJP – one threatening to withdraw support, and the other readying to vote out the Indo-US deal in the Parliament – which will shape the economic growth, development and position of India in the Global landscape !!
It is unlikely that the Congress Party will give in to the pressure tactics of the opposition – but if it does, it will pave way for its own disintegration. Many leaders and supporters of BJP and the Left are waiting with bated breath that Congress indeed gives in – brightening their own chances to come back to power in the next General Elections. Who cares about National Interest ?
Left has no option but to keep sending the ball back in Congress’s court – since it is growing jittery by day. It is too late for them compromise on this matter without ending up with huge amount of embarrassment!!
In preparation for mid-term elections – every party including the Congress will play real politik of the wort kind – including caste & communal based politics – invoking all kinds of commissions/reports. Reforms will halt by the roadside – and give way to popular schemes which may have electoral value.
What happens to the Indo-US Nuclear deal is uncertain – as India has already lost a lot of credibility in the NSG. Western Analysts are aghast at the turn of events in the domestic poltics of India – and are wondering whether it is worth wasting any more time & effort making concessions for India – when the people of India themselves do not deserve it.
AS I SAID BEFORE, IT IS GOING TO BE A FIGHT TO THE FINISH NOW, AND THERE WILL BE BLOOD ON THE TABLE AT THE END OF IT !! AS USUAL, IT IS GOING TO BE THE PEOPLE OF INDIA WHO WILL PAY THE PRICE FOR OUR POLITICIANS.
The Congress government does not want to go down on the nuke deal issue. It should be seen to be “sacrificing” power for a vote-getting issue. That would naturally mean injecting even more larger doses of caste and communal politics into current affairs. In 1989 VP Singh precipated a crisis with ally BJP in order to “sacrifice” power for “principle” (Mandal and Babri) and duly went on to bite dust in elections. In 2007, the Congress’s drawback — and perhaps blessing in disguise — is that it is not dependent on BJP for survival but on the Left. The Congress only sinks low to play caste/communal card, but the commies are ever willing to sink lower. So what vote-geeter issue can Congress invent that the commies don’t want to be seen supporting?
Why is taking action on Sri Krishna commission report, a muslim-appeasing act??
Jujung – that is a question for the congress, everything about the srikrishna commission report has been made out to be about justice for muslims. If you strictly go by the recommendations (read my earlier post on this) it is about improving law enforcement but the clamor is not about the recommendations but something else which smacks of appeasement.