Time may be running out for Rahul “Godot” Gandhi
The Left parties today stepped up pressure insisting that the Government should not go ahead with the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal and take their support for granted as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh makes a statement on the pact in Parliament tomorrow. CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat asserted in Thiruvananthapuram there was no going back on the Left’s opposition to the deal and tersely reminded the UPA that it is running the Government with the support of the Left. The Left’s warnings come after the Prime Minister called the Left’s bluff in an exclusive interview to a Kolkota based newspaper daring the Left to do whatever it wanted to including withdrawal of support. Piling on to the bark from the Left was mandal messiah VP Singh. Accusing the UPA Government of subversion of democracy, Jan Morcha leader V P Singh today demanded resignation of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for ignoring the concern of the “majority opinion” against Indo-US nuclear deal.
In what was clear of evidence of “all bark, not bite” response from the Left, the CNN-IBN reported that CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury spoke to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh over the phone and he is believed to have clarified that while their opposition to the deal itself continues, the Left will not destabilise the government. The BJP meanwhile has been sitting pretty taking potshots at the Left for not walking the talk.
Offstumped takes a critical look at the political big picture as the stage shifts to the Parliament this week.
In what maybe another instance of the Law of Unintended Consequences at work, Rahul “Godot” Gandhi must be ruing his stars. If the young Gandhi was hoping to be a player in the 2009 polls he maybe late getting into the game. The nasty exchange between the Prime Minister and Karat may not result in withdrawal of support next but the Prime Minister may have unwittingly served notice on his own government by daring the Left to withdraw support. The state of affairs in Kerala and Bengal will deter the Left from taking any precipitate action right now but let us be clear the wedge has finally been driven. It is a matter of time before the outside support falls apart. In all likelihood the Left will begin with total legislative non-cooperation in Parliament paralyzing the UPA Government from bringing in any new legislation that does not fit the Left’s grand scheme of things. The elections in BJP ruled Gujarat followed by those in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will likely be the tipping point.
The Left’s twin political objectives would be to ensure its leverage in National Politics through its current tally of 60 odd Lok Sabha seats is maintained or improved while the BJP is not allowed to regain its lost momentum. The first objective is in serious doubt of being met under current political conditions in Kerala and Bengal. The second too could be seriously threatened by a Narendra Modi victory in Gujarat. In such a scenario it is likely the Left would look to cut its losses and take its chances with a mid-term poll rather than wait it out till 2009 and risk facing further anti-incumbency in its pocket boroughs as well as a resurgent BJP that may have retained M.P. and Rajasthan.
Offstumped Bottomline: The countdown to draw of curtains on the UPA-Left Axis of Evil may have just begun with the Prime Minister daring the Left to withdraw support. And that means time is running out for Rahul “Godot” Gandhi to intern. The smart ones will take their cue from Gujarat and get ready for snap polls.
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CPIM;s hardline stand on Indo-US deal are fow two reasons:
(1) So they can whip up Muslim passion in Kerala, West bengal against USA, Congress and grab Muslim Vote.
(2) Help China.
The first one is a blatant Communalization of India’s foreign Policy.
Second one shows that CPIM cares more for China, less for India.
Its extremely unlikely that Left will be able to retain 60 odd seats, because in Kerala Left & COngress get seats in alternate years.
In WB also, Trinamool Congress is sure to increase their tally which is at present just 1 (Mamata alone), because CPIM played communal card with Post Godhra.
If BJP can retain power in all 4 states Plus Guj which are going to polls in the coming months, it will be in a great position.
Also note, Congress is equally badly divided in states. Recent example of Delhi where a section of its leaders plotted against Dixit is well know.
Y Samuel Reddy who ensured Cong gets 8 seats more than BJP in 2004 will fac huge anti-incumbency. Its equally true in Haryana.
Overall, most important election is Guj.
Manmohan Singh has certainly served notice on the Left ! There will be new political formations for the 2009 general elections – and most likely a UPA Govt (minus Left) led again by Manmohan Singh will come to power…
The Left is likely to align forces with SP and few other fringe parties to pose a serious challenge to the NDA (BJP) which will witness its representation receeding in the Parliament after these elections.
By the way, I could not understand why you dragged Rahul Gandhi into the PM-Left spat over the N-Deal ?…
Though I would like to believe that NDA wins in upcoming elections in all 4 states. But that is more of a wish list then reality.
While UPA faces anti-incumbancy in general elections (Almost all it allies will face that, which was a similar situation with NDA in 2004), NDA will face the same in state elections.
Keeping the folks together will be tough for BJP after possible losses in state elections. This can act as a detterant, though they should have an advantage in General Elections.
A worse condition for the country could be NDA allies and UPA allies breaking and creating a third front. That can spell a doom for Indian growth.
BJP needs to put its act together and get its best election organisers like Arun Jaitley, Jaswant Singh etc in sensitive states and also hold on the Rajnath Singh’s ambition and see that it doesn’t grow over party’s ambition.
The Congress and BJP alike have a lot to face in a general election, so I can’t see how it benefits either one, which is why I always reject any suspicion of an early election. Nor does the Left harbor any great hopes. It has not expanded its base, and will incur losses in Kerala (to the UDF) and in WB (to Mamata). The UPA allies are sitting pretty on plump ministries. There is absolutely no way the DMK, PMK, RJD, JMM or LJP can maintain their current tallies. Not in the face of a surging Nitish Kumar, and anti-incumbency under Karunanadhani and Madhu Koda. Chandrababu is ready to attack in Andhra Pradesh as is the BJP in Delhi…and if bye-election’s and local elections are anything to go by, any gains the Congress makes in BJP (or ally-ruled states) will be nothing to cheer about…not to mention that Mayawati may start gobbling up their voters in the Hindi heartland. The scenario’s are numerous…and some of them are quite murky, I’m afraid.