In a judgement of far reaching political and social consequences, the Allahabad High Court today ruled that Muslims in Uttar Pradesh can no longer be treated as a religious minority. This development comes with Uttar Pradesh going to polls for the state assembly in 2 days for the first phase of constituencies. Meanwhile in a pre-emptive “secular strike” ahead of the “communal” court decision, the Election Commission ordered the filing of a FIR against BJP President Rajnath Singh and Leader of the Opposition in UP Lalji Tandon over a controversial campaign CD that was not to be. The EC has also asked BJP to show cause why its symbol as a national party should not be derecognized.
Only the Rajiv Gandhi assasination in the middle of a general election comes closest to the current developments in Uttar Pradesh. Offstumped examines the “Shock and Awe” effect of these twin developments ahead of the first phase UP Polls.
First the High Court Judgement on Minority Status to Muslims. The high court ruling is set to trigger a constitutional debate on who is a minority. National Commission for Minorities (NCM) chief Hamid Ansari has already laid the contours for which way that debate will head from the psuedo-secular side of the political divide. According to Ansari
“In relation to 51, 49 is a minority and in relation to 49, 51 is a majority. So if there is an arithmetical test to be applied, this figure of 13 or 18 per cent will stand self-evident as a minority,” he remarked
Well Ansari maybe spared the mental arithmetic for Minority Politics in India and world over has not been about numbers but about the ubiquitous “paranoia”. Playing to the fear of the Majority has been an universal trait and psuedo-secular politicians in India have been no exception. While the court battle plays out, the question comes back to who stands to benefit from this decision. To answer the question one must examine the immideate psychological effect of the decision. If one were to go with the assumption that Muslim vote will consolidate behind viable Muslim or Pro-Muslim candidates, this decision goes further to catalyze that consolidation. On the larger question of who would benefit from that consolidation one should not be surprised if Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP stages a smart comeback. Offstumped’s analysis of the Muslim Vote Bank revealed that in about 86 odd seats such a Muslim vote consolidation can influence SP’s prospects.
The 5 phase polling in UP is bound to influence how this plays out depending on the Supreme Court’s reaction and how the psuedo-secular parties attempt to appropriate the Minority Cause for the Muslims. On the other side of the political divide however this ruling and the CD episode are perhaps good news for the BJP despite media reporting to the opposite. The High Court ruling reinforces the BJP argument of Muslim Appeasement in UP and thus could have a motivating effect on the BJP’s base to turnout on election day. The CD episode while inconvenient from an election commission standpoint will have a further consolidating effect on the BJP vote base more than anything else.
The media has been attempting to paint this as some kind of a setback for the BJP, the fact of the matter however is this actually will help more than hurt the BJP. Any tough action by the EC against the BJP will trigger a greater backlash politically in UP than the supposed secular backlash the media is imagining the CD episode would trigger. One must remember that UP is a fragmented and polarized state politically. There are no secular undecided voters to win over. There maybe further muslim vote consolidation but there will be no anti-BJP backlash. Those who are voting against the BJP are those who have already made up their minds on account of caste and community considerations. So the entire CD episode while mildly amusing for the mainstream english media is more of an opportunity for the EC to appear even handed and to assert itself than anything else.
Offstumped Bottomline: As UP goes to polls the shock and awe from the twin developments of the High Court Decision and the BJP CD episode will have a consolidating effect on the twin vote banks. The key beneficiaries will likely be the SP and BJP. Come election day, pay close attention to the turnout for there in lie early signals of which way the votes have consolidated. A low turnout will mean a battle of vote banks while a high turn out could throw all predictions, the present one included, out of the window.
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Yossarin, any thoughts on the UP poll that came out few weeks ago?
Chandra – Good question I have been very wary of putting much currency on any opinion or exit polls in India in recent times. Unlike the homogenity of western democracies the Indian electoral landscape has become so diverse and fragmented that I am seriously questioning the sampling methodologies these Opinion Polls use. My take is for these polls to be credible first their sampling should target “likely voters” accurately. Secondly they should deal with bias in their sampling – knowing the typical Indian psyche I find it hard to believe that there is no bias to those who volunteer to give their opinion
Its a pity that the so-called protectors of Hindus dont have the guts to even stand up and owe up a CD they officially released.
Yossarin, what I find most depressing is that whatever government comes to power will be incredibly unstable and over-run by defectors/independents&others who are as greedy as Madhu Koda and his gang. Mayawati’s campaign is only based on Dalit-Brahmin brotherhood and Mulayam on Muslim-Yadav solidification. They don’t open their mouth once about any human issue. No surprise that in the larger cities, it is mainly a BJP-Congress fight because they are scared to death of the SP/BSP. If BJP is the key to power after elections (My glimmer of a hope they can get close to a majority is small, but there), I think they need to accept President’s Rule in the state. In fact, I think the state should be declared a crisis zone and a special non-partisan administration created. Wishful thinking.
RS – the days of messing with the EC have long gone by they wont own upto it even in their dreams
Rajendra Mishra – I would agree with you but then Bihar showed us that it was possible to turn the tide from hung assemblies to a majority but then Bihar warmed up to Nitish, I dont see Kalyan doing a Nitish in UP and that could hurt the BJP’s prospects.
Now this CD case is a fit case to derecognise BJP. But just like the BJP doesnt have the guts to owe up the CD,the EC too will stop short of cracking the whip meekely accepting BJP’s reply.
Btw, BJP just trashed the Congress in Delhi Muncipal Elections. IMO apart from the ceiling issue this vote is also against the anti-national policies of the Central govt.
Type your comment here.WHY SO MUCH HUE AND CRY over a mere cd.People haven’t watched it properly .Do you know dear that a CD is being circulated in Punjab propagating the sepratist provoking thoughts for a seprate sikh home land ,and it can be procoured easily in any fair in punjab especially from Damdama sahib Taksaal’s stall and also you can have it in Anandpur sahib THE central govt.knos it.When there has been no action against any such things then this cd if any body sees it will understand that it is showing truth and only truth …….