The Dalit factor continues to be a wildcard in Indian Politics and more specifically in Uttar Pradesh. What was traditionally a Congress vote bank in the 80s has since morphed into a constituency in its own right with many claimants. From Paswan to born again Dalits like Udit Raj. However BSP chief Mayawati continues to be Prima Donna with her pledge sometime back to redouble her efforts to bring in the country’s first Dalit Prime Minister. Mayawati’s immediate problems however are in Uttar Pradesh. In the last election Mayawati had attempted a focused outreach towards Muslims and Upper Castes, to broaden her base and mass appeal. While this strategy has been a mixed basket for Mayawati perhaps this time around it might be back to basics for Mayawati.
Offstumped takes a critical look at the Dalit vote in Uttar Pradesh.
Of the 80 odd lok sabha seats in UP 11 were reserved. In 2004, of the 11 crore voters in UP, SC/ST vote accounted for 2.3 crores. On the face of it the SC/ST electorate may account for only 20% but here is they key. Only 1.03 crore SC/ST voters showed up to the polls in 2004. With a less than 50% voter turnout the SC/ST electorate is an under penetrated one even for parties like the BSP which swear by Dalit politics. The other interesting statistic is that Dalit women voters to the tune of about 70 lakhs did not show up to vote.
To better appreciate how this latent Dalit women vote can impact the outcome consider the below scenario. Mayawati’s BSP managed to win 19 Lok Sabha seats all in Uttar Pradesh polling approximately 2 crore voters across the country. 15 of these seats were open seats while 4 were reserved. The BSP’s vote share in UP was 24% with a 1.3 crore votes polled in its favor. UP with a 5.6 crore voter turnout is still virgin territory for Mayawati with its historically low turnout amongst SC/ST women. If Mayawati were to only focus her efforts on SC/ST women and improve their turnout by half of those who did not vote last time around, she improves the BSP vote share to a dramatic 30% which contrasted with the BJP polling a measly 22% vote share in 2004 and the Congress’ pathetic 12% makes her a compelling challenger to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP which managed 30% of the vote share in partnership with Ajit Singh’s RLD.
But that maybe easier said than done given how poorly Mayawati has done with turning out the Dalit voter base. This throws up the possibility to a variety of new scenarios depending on which party best turns out Dalit votes in its favor, given the Dalit voter is by no stretch of the imagination a monopoly of the BSP. Offstumped’s analysis of voting patterns in the 2002 assembly elections has revealed the following. In a majority of the seats (251) the winner polled only 20% or less of the total electorate. Given this, any effort to improve turnout of a specific segment will have an impact on the eventual outcome if that segment is likely to consolidate behind a candidate or a party.
The question then is who is best placed to influence the Dalit voter turnout, especially the Dalit woman voter.
There is a renewed battle for leadership of the Dalit cause. A new breed of Dalit intellectual like Mr. Chandra Bhan Prasad are giving a new spin to the Dalit cause by arguing for a Dalit embrace of English as a ticket to emancipation nirvana. On the other hand mainstream Hindu organizations lead by eminent personalites like Sri Sri Ravishankar of Art Of Living fame are reaching out to the Dalit populace to erase the centuries old hurt. It is an open question at this time who will eventually prevail.
Offstumped Bottomline: The Dalit factor is likely to play a significant role in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. The battle in UP is more likely to be about turning out the Dalit vote in one’s favor than anything else, especially Dalit women voter turnout. In the run up to the elections those who can successfully claim leadership to the Dalit Cause will eventually prevail. Good reason for the BJP to get its Dalit act right to benefit from some of that turnout and to keep the doors open for a post poll aliance with Mayawati.
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Mayawati’s problems are several: 1) She has had a challenging time expanding her vote-base. She has an ironclad crip on Dalits, but other groups have only trickled in. She has yet to break the 100-mark in UP. 2) She gave a quarter of seats to Muslims in 2002 in a big gamble, and only a handful of them actually won. This time, she is giving almost as many to Brahmins. She could only get 5% of this group’s vote as recently as 2004. This is the biggest gamble of all. I also don’t think Muslims have warmed up to her much more. 3) She sells seats, so that come government formation time, the BJP and SP had their fun to enjoy power for virtually the last ten years at Mayawati’s expense. She has also obtained the status as “worst possible ally”.
The big problem in predicting UP is no one really knows how well Mayawati’s gamble will pay off. But one thing’s for sure. The BJP and SP will work their best to keep her out of power.
The Dalit factor is likely to play a significant role in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. The
Man, this is breaking news stuff!
Yossarin,
Looks like you have to explain the difference between analysis and breaking news. At least you are not apologizing for terrorists.
Janpar – couldnt agree with you more.
Shivam – Looks like you lost your way, try http://www.ndtv.com for breaking news, you may get lucky
Chandra – not everyone is perfect, we have to let the less gifted be
Excellent analysis of the forthcoming UP elections! Was wondering if you have considered BJP’s recent electoral success in Uttaranchal and Punjab and the extent to which it will influence the outcome in UP? Also do you have any thoughts on the Congress’ failing strategy for UP?!
Avanti – I will do a piece shortly on the Congress prospects in UP. As far as how much Punjab and Uttarakhand will influence UP for the BJP my guess is not much. UP is too messy and complex a lot will depend on voter turnout and which segments of voters actually turnout. In Bihar Nitish garnered a lot of goodwill and charisma to have a positive effect on turnout in the face of general apathy and cynicism, I dont see similar enthusiasm building up for Kalyan Singh, that is going to hurt the BJP. If the BJP is relying only on anti-incumbency it will be in trouble, voter apathy must be very strong in UP by now so unless there is a positive enthusiasm building up it will be another hung assembly.
[...] Although the majority of UPA government is decisive* and with two M.P. the withdrawal is not a threat but after a honeymoon period which seemed would never end, thanks in part to internecine war within BJP and the sycophancy of a prominent section of English media, the country as well as Congress (and possibly eminent editors) are waking to a harsh reality. If strife in UPA continues and BJP is able to consolidate (much of which will depend on result of UP elections), 2009 may see the end of present dispension. * Wait, what if left withdraws support ! The idea would have been absurd a few month back, but as they say, the times they are a-changin’ [...]
bsp is goin to cross the magic figure of 200…n bjp is goin to b within 50….n the biggest looser in this election will be the ruling samajwadi party with only 75 seats …n taking congress in to the factor…its definitely goin to improve with 35 seats…
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i dont see Mayawati capturing the hot seat this time .it is not giong to be easy for her ,by giving a lot of tickets to brahmins she might just lose some of her conventional votes. in a state like up where cast plays very im role in election ,you just might see sp and bjp coming together after election.
Type your comment here.i dont see Mayawati capturing the hot seat this time .it is not giong to be easy for her ,by giving a lot of tickets to brahmins she might just lose some of her conventional dalit votes. in a state like up where cast plays very important role in election ,you just might see sp and bjp coming together after election.
i dont see Mayawati capturing the hot seat this time .it is not giong to be easy for her ,by giving a lot of tickets to brahmins she might just lose some of her conventional dalit votes. in a state like up where cast plays very important role in election ,you just might see sp and bjp coming together after election.
It is strange that no one has realized that the BSP can form a govt of its own should the combined SP+BJP tally be less than 200 as is already the case in one of the exit polls predictions. The BSP with 130 seats, the congress with about 30 seats, the RLD with 10 and about 10 independents adds up to 180. It is a question of 20 more seats that will decide if it is Mayawati on her own or BSP+BJP!