The ruling Congress party was heading for defeat in polls in Punjab and Uttarakhand on Tuesday. The Bharatiya Janata Party looks set to form the government in Uttarakhand winning around 34 of the 68 results declared. In Punjab the Shirmonai Akali Dal, SAD-BJP combine bagged 67 of the 116 declared results. Congress spokesperson Ambika Soni attributed price rise to the defeat while Sonia Gandhi speaking to NDTV said that the results were along expected lines, whatever that meant. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday termed the NDA’s poll victory in Punjab and his BJP’s win in the Uttarakhand elections as a rejection of the Congress-led UPA for its “soft stance” on national security and inability to control inflation. In his reaction to the poll results Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the results were not a referendum against UPA. Manmohan Singh was reacting to Arun Jaitley’s remarks that this was the “beginning of the end” for the Congress in a “string of victories” to come.
While detailed analysis of the polls based on vote share will have to wait, some quick observations from Offstumped on the results.
In both Punjab and Uttarakhand the trend is clearly against the Congress without doubt. This flies in the face of exit poll after exit poll and news analyses in the mainstream media which talked of cliffhangers and nailbiting finishes. The results were no close encounters they were made out to be. However the rather slender majority in Punjab and the BJP finishing just at the half way mark in Uttarakhand is indicative that there was no landslide in favor of the NDA. The exact vote shares will reveal how strong the swing away from the Congress was or in favor of the NDA but that will have to wait.
There is however a larger message that has kind of been hovering in the background and has found an echo in this election and this has to do with the fate of the two principal national parties – the congress and the BJP.
One has to rewind back to the 2004 general elections to better understand this. In the run upto the general elections while there were hints of the BJP not doing well, the congress was practically written off in analysis after analysis. The exit polls and the opinion polls were full of mixed messages to be of any practical use. Then came the results and the subsequent shocker for the NDA. The big surprise however was the emergence of the Congress as the single largest party a few seats behind the BJP. The media euphoria that followed the much hyped “sacrifice” by Sonia saw a series of analyses that for the first time started to contribute to the “Brand Sonia” myth. What started with eulogies on her “supreme sacrifice” soon turned to praise on how “sonia steered” the congress towards victory. The reality of 2004 however was drowned in this euphoria and since forgotten. A more careful analysis of 2004 would tell us that it was not so much “Sonia steering” but the BJP’s state level alliances letting it down. 3 key states made the difference – TN with DMK switching over, AP with Naidu getting white-washed and Maharashtra where the Shiv Sena hurt big time.
Since 2004 the nation has seen 3 waves of assembly elections. The first wave was in 2005 with Bihar, Jharkhand and Haryana going to the polls. In Bihar and Jharkhand “brand sonia” was hardly in play as “brand lalu” started to fade. The next wave was in 2006 with Kerala, West Bengal and Assam going to polls. “Brand Sonia” saw Kerala slip away, Bengal having the best showing ever by the Communists and Assam despite a high turnout saw a motivated anti-congress vote splintered away to hold the Congress but with support from outfits like the AUDF that owed their existence to the anti-congress vote. The 3rd wave and current wave in 2007 has seen “Brand Sonia” blame away inflation for Punjab and Uttarakhand slipping away and Manipur in play with support from other outfits.
So in summary since the “mythical victory” of 2004 “brand sonia” has done nothing to the Congress. In fact with the exception of Haryana where the pendulum swings wildly on anti-incumbency every term, the only election where “brand sonia” had an impact was where “Sonia” herself was contesting. From local polls in UP to Mumbai which were hyped up with Sonia campaigning, “brand sonia” did little to make an impact.
Offstumped had earlier in the year pointed out that the only poll with good news for the Congress in 2007 was perhaps already out and this was the Yogendra Yadav manufactured fictitious opinion poll which reported Sonia as the most popular leader. But for the media types who have been manufacturing and promoting “Brand Sonia” the hard reality for the Congress is the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is no longer an election winner. This despite the able aiding and abetting by known Sonia Spin meisters like Vir Sanghvi, Pankaj Vora and others who have been on the ball to defend Sonia whenever she has been challenged be it on the Office of Profit Issue, the issue of President’s rule in Uttar Pradesh or now on the Quattrochi issue.
Which brings us to the question, if one were Arjun Singh and one were passed over by a bureaucrat with no known electoral base for the nation’s top job all at the insistence of “brand sonia”, one must be wondering why exactly is “brand sonia” allowed to lord over the remaining vestiges of the congress party when in election after election the brand is turning out to be more myth than reality ?
This takes us directly to the message for the BJP in these 3 waves of elections. The days of national elections based on national issues dominated by national parties are over. If the BJP must do well in the Center it must focus on its states. It must not lose sight of its state level alliances and must get its act right in all the states where it is in power. The media may continue to obsess over the confusion in its national leadership and there maybe some opportunities lost in parliament to pind down the UPA on national issues, but those have little bearing when it comes to election realpolitik. So rather than worry about defending itself to the national media the BJP must focus on turning out its base and keeping its allies in good humor to get the arithmetic to work its way.
Offstumped Bottomline: The message from the elections is clear for the Congress. Brand Sonia is more myth than reality. It does not provide any insulation against a motivated opposition campaign nor is it any insurance against anti-incumbency. In fact the value of the brand is highly questionable and the likes of Arjun Singh must rethink their continued indulgence of the Nehru-Gandhi family at the cost of the Party itself.
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With increasing regionalism in India since the 1960’s onwards, today everything in elections is local.
Hence, brand Sonia is ridiculous. It is only a brand in Amethi and Rae Bareli. Congress in Punjab was pinned on Amarinder and in Uttarakhand on ND Tiwari. It was even noted that MM Singh’s rallies in Punjab had a dismal turnout, showing that despite Yadav’s “polls”, MM Singh 2 1/2 years as PM is a nobody.
BJP needs to return the arm-twisting tactics of its allies to the SAD now in Punjab. SAD expected no more than 6-7 seats for BJP, and now they are dependent on them. I am also quite pleased Mayawati has no say in Uttarakhand.
There is a clear disconnect between english media gate keepers (who feed international media), licking sonia’s feet, and the rest of regional media and voters. I think most right minded people see through stupidity, at least eventually. What is Fox news for Bush is English news channels, all of them, for the Sonia.
But still Congress is unable to break away from the family. When Rahul is challenged and the family put in its place, the tide of history will change in India. The family can continue to write books on their apparent sacrifices – at least the nation can move on.
Hi Yossarin
Great Analysis
However ‘Spin Twins’ will continue to wreck havoc.Now they will try to underplay the extent of BJP’S upswing in UP by resorting to pseudo opinion polls
Remember Punjab and Uttarkhand ,as per the dubious State of Nation poll,constituted ’sweep states’ for Congress.Opinion poll,done by the duo, pointed to landslide for Congress (5% lead in Punjab and 9% in Uttarkhand as per opinion poll)
I think there is case for starting desi version of Media Whores online that relentlessely exposes the media gatekeepers
And one can only hope that BJP leadership takes lesson on the “Right of Centre” agenda that you have been brilliantly articulating
Read your post on UP as well as this. excellent, both.
In punjab, BJP won 19 of the 23 seats it contested. Their hit rate is much better than SAD. An Akali leader was saying on TV yesterday that it was because BJP mostly contested in urban seats. But still, 19 out of 23 is good.
The voter turnout was high too in punjab.
A lot of votes are mostly frozen on caste and religion – particularly in the rural areas. Those votes dont unfreeze unless something huge happens. If there is any issue-based voting, that would have to be urban, middle, ‘forward’ classes. This section does not always vote – particularly if things are normal, most of them would just treat the polling day as another holiday. Like in 2004 LS polls – this section had no grudge towards BJP – and no love towards congress – and most likely they did not vote.
And this is a section that everybody ignores. If this vote can influence elections, that would be a huge wakeup call to the reservation/minority-appeasement kind of politics. Mayawati seems to have realized this already.
Talking about price rise or inflation in explaining this round (punjab/uttaranchal) does not really make sense. If,as seen in punjab, rural voters did not vote as much for the NDA as the urban voters, you would have to then assume that rural voters dont worry about rising prices as much as urban voters. That would be silly. It is much more likely that rural votes are frozen on caste/religion.
Rajendra – Increasing regionalism maybe from 1960 but till 2004 the general elections tended to have a national flavor, 2004 was the first one where the national campaigns like “India shining” fell flat.
Chandra – The nation almost moved on I would think till Sitaram Kesri bungled and the likes of Arjun Singh plotted to get sonia into the akhara. Arjun Singh must be regretting that move to date. Last time around the regional congressmen like Pawar and Arjun Singh had some base to speak of to armtwist things another direction, in the current mix there are no regional satraps who can lay claim to their base independent of Sonia and that makes a coup-de-etat in the CWC almost impossible.
Prasanna – thanks for the feedback. I guess all of us on INI are playing that role to some extent but my take is we need the Talk Radio Rush Limbaugh equivalent to take the mainstream media on.
Reason – fully agree with you. That was my thesis all along, the BJP needs to turn out its base of middle class voters, if it does so it does well in the polls. But turning out the base means enthusing them on issues they care about and that is where “India shining” fell apart it was too abstract and missed the target audience completely except for a few folks like us in the I.T. sector for whom India was shining.
Yossarin, one of the things I have found is that the English in India is clueless about politics at the ground level. You see these commentators talking about the big picture, “Sonia Effect”, “India Shining” and these simply aren’t pervasive to the voter. The reality is a matter of statistics: Castes who vote for you, sentiment against MLA’s and state governments, allies you bring along, et al are usually the easiest logical indicators. I find this quite depressing to say, but national security (and Quatrocchi, for example) is a wasted point by the BJP. Ideologically, it makes sense and should be raised…but, the average (not a politically active) voter cares more subzi prices, water, employment than terrorism. That is not to say that overall strategy can be centralized, either. In the era where Congress is no longer a political monopoly, a state government surviving has been rare…and most cases where it is, there is no strong opposition (Congress in Gujarat, Mamata in WB, as examples). Little study has been done on whether or not the reason behind this is that the governments voted out just did not perform, or whether we just have a mindset of wanting change, or maybe even both. In any case, the English media is too busy. A week ago, they were reporting the BJP is dead (so what if its achievements in Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Mumbai in the last two years)…suddenly, they are all collaborating on a ‘BJP Comes Back’ slew of headlines. Seriously tasteless.
The English media is full of non-Indian language speaking types – and is v.poorly informed on ground level politics. They don’t go beyond ABCD in the local language (ayah, bearer, cook, driver) that’s all an Indian language is good for. The good reporters are the local city-based ones or the crime beat guys. Otherwise most of the senior writers simply travel into the heartland spend a few days plying the local language reporters with thanda paani and writing up their copy. Can you imagine what sort of ‘national journalists” the likes of Vinod Mehta, Prannoy Roy, and Rajdeep Sardesai are? They can’t speak Hindi to save their lives.
u should need to make more simple and essy to oprate ur side and more information about role of media in punjab legislation 2007
[...] Finally I know I speak for every loyal gandhi topi white kurta sporting Congress worker when I say t… [...]
it is so unfortunate to see allies are leaving one after another from BJP. it was the duty of l.k.advani to chat with nabeen, cm, orissa for a middle solution. inspite of that, he gave a free hand to the state leaders in taking stupid action, which will give them nothing but will smash the entire bjp in the state. i am so sorry for the happenings, as i am a great supporter of bjp. i have still a great hope from advani, who will bring some solution for the 11-years long allience. god save the bjd and bjp. now ultimately congress will take the benefit. a sure shot sweep in the state is now going to be handed over to the enemy.